Kentucky Climate Update
Date: Monday Jul 17 2018 Re: Palmer Drought (PDSI)/Crop Moisture (CMI) Indices Above Normal Temperatures and Below Normal Rainfall: The second week straight in July with dry conditions was unlike the very wet first-half of the year for the Bluegrass State. Several counties in the west did a little bit better on the rain than the remainder of the state pushing the western climate division above normal for rainfall. The west also had more of the heat than the remainder of the state but a couple of slightly cooler days occurred at mid-week. Yet, the trend of warmer than normal temperatures continued for the week and for the past 11 weeks. WEST KY Long-term Hydrological Moisture status is: NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL KY Long-term Hydrological Moisture status is: NEAR NORMAL BLUEGRASS KY Long-term Hydrological Moisture status is: NEAR NORMAL EAST KY Long-term Hydrological Moisture status is: NEAR NORMAL WEST KY Crop Moisture status is: Topsoil Moisture Short, Germination Slow CENTRAL KY Crop Moisture status is: Favorable For Normal Growth And Fieldwork BLUEGRASS KY Crop Moisture status is: Favorable For Normal Growth And Fieldwork EAST KY Crop Moisture status is: Topsoil Moisture Short, Germination Slow Rainfall needed above normal to end the hydrological drought: West 2.67 inches, Central 0.00 inches, Bluegrass 0.00 inches and East 3.32 inches. WEEKLY PALMER DROUGHT AND CROP MOISTURE DATA FOR THE CLIMATE DIVISIONS IN THE CENTRAL REGION CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, NCEP, NWS, NOAA WEEK 19 OF THE 2018 GROWING SEASON IS THE WEEK ENDING 16 JUL 2018 SOIL PCT MONTH PRELIM-P PRECIP MOISTURE FIELD CHANGE MOIST FINAL -F NEEDED UPPER LOWER CAP. POT RUN CROP FROM ANOM PALMER TO END TEMP PCPN LAYER LAYER END EVAP OFF MOIST PREV (Z) DROUGHT DROUGHT ST CD CLIMATE DIVISION (F) (IN) (IN) (IN) WEEK (IN) (IN) INDEX WEEK INDEX INDEX (IN) KY 1 WESTERN 80.3 0.33 0.00 6.02 66.9 1.56 0.00 -0.41 -0.58 -0.65 -1.03 P 2.67 KY 2 CENTRAL 78.9 0.23 0.00 6.72 74.6 1.45 0.00 0.12 -0.73 0.19 -0.47 P KY 3 BLUE GRASS 77.2 0.02 0.00 6.42 71.3 1.38 0.00 -0.33 -0.34 -1.34 -1.22 P 2.88 KY 4 EASTERN 75.9 0.07 0.00 3.56 59.3 1.34 0.00 -0.42 -0.68 -0.45 -1.48 P 3.32Note: In the "Precip Needed to End Drought" column...that rainfall is needed ABOVE NORMAL./K. Thomas Priddy, UKAWC
for the entire list of ag. weather observations across Kentucky.
Updated Friday Mid-Day, July 20, 2018
...Severe Weather Expected Today, Heat Advisory West...
According to the latest weather forecasts, an outbreak of severe weather is likely this afternoon and evening across Kentucky. The Storm Prediction Center has a large portion of our area in a "Moderate Risk" (level 4 out of 5 severe risk). Damaging winds, very large hail (> 2+ inches in some instances), and a few tornadoes are possible.
An unseasonably strong storm system will move into the lower Great Lakes through this evening, with a surface cold front trailing from this system also approaching our region by later this evening. The strong storm system will interact with a strongly unstable airmass to develop numerous strong to severe storms. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible along with excessive lightning and heavy rainfall. The most widespread period of storms will be from late this afternoon through late evening. The storms should be out of the area midnight. Scattered showers and storms are then possible mainly each afternoon and evening through the weekend, although aren't expected to be as strong as today.
In addition to the potential for severe weather, western sections of the state also have a Heat Advisory in effect. The heat will be the main threat for today with southern portions of the region exceeding triple digit heat index values. Livestock Heat Stress will rise into the Emergency Category in the west and Danger Category for the remainder of the state.
Fayette County Precision Ag. Weather Forecast