-=-=-=-=-=-=-Severe Weather Safety Tips Click Here-=-=-=-=-=- What is UTC time? Click here to find out.... Mouseover to pause!......Kentucky Short-term forecast... Western KY .TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Central KY .TODAY...Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Eastern KY .TODAY...Warm. Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. +_+_+_+_+_+_+_+_+_ ....Here's the Central Kentucky 7-day hazardous weather outlook from the National Weather Service... From the UK ag weather center. Updated: 3 AM Tue Apr 23 2019 this hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central indiana and central kentucky. .day one...today and tonight. scattered thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of the ohio river. lightning, wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph, and briefly heavy rain are the main weather hazards. .days two through seven...wednesday through monday. isolated thunderstorms will be in the forecast wednesday through thursday. lightning and brief heavy rain will be the main hazards. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. This hazardous forecast is provided by The National Weather Service. ...The mission of the UK Agricultural Weather Program/Center is to provide educational resources through the development of agricultural weather products and services that minimize weather surprise to Kentucky residents relative to their agricultural needs... Detailed forecast information is available in your Precision Ag Weather forecast here... -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Long-range outlooks here.
Tue Apr 23 06:30:23 EDT 2019
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For the forecasted weather conditions in Kentucky this coming week, click here. All Ky summaries here, Campus hourly forecast graph Forecast graphic: PAH, LEX JKL



 Across the Commonwealth...
Western KY .TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Central KY .TODAY...Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Eastern KY .TODAY...Warm. Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds around 10 mph.
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Kentucky
Based on observations at 600am EDT, Tuesday April 23, 2019

Across Kentucky...temperatures are near 62 degrees west, near 60 degrees central, and near 57 degrees east. Current sky conditions are fair west, fair central, and fair east. In the west, relative humidity is near 64%, and the dew point is near 50 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 55%, and the dew point is near 44 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 62%, and the dew point is near 44 degrees. Current drying conditions are fair west, fair central, and fair east. Winds are from the southwest at 7 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the south at 8 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 3 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 66 degrees at Louisville International. The lowest temperature is 48 degrees at Somerset. Click here for the entire list of ag. weather observations across Kentucky.

  

Kentucky Weather Forecast

Western KY:
Central KY:
Eastern KY:

Specific and detailed farm-by-farm weather forecast information is available in your Point Ag Forecast. New County Ag Weather Page, Current Conditions:Kentucky
, U.S.
Across the Commonwealth for the next week...

Kentucky Medium & Long Range Outlook:

KENTUCKY --------------------------------------------- 6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY APR 28-MAY 2 APR 30-MAY 6 APR APR-JUN ----------- ----------- -------- --------- Temperature: Above Above Above Above Precipitation: Above Normal Normal Above .... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
Click here for the outlook maps.

 


Weather Story & Fire Outlook

LMK

	
JKL

	
   

Zones Forecasts

PAH

	
Tue Apr 23 04:40:10 EDT 2019

McCracken-
Including the city of Paducah
339 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds
5 to 10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows in the
upper 50s. North winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming calm
after midnight. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Highs in the mid 70s. East winds around 5 mph in the morning
becoming calm in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers after
midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds 5 mph. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Numerous showers in the morning, then periods of
showers and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in
the lower 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of
precipitation 90 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the evening. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of
precipitation 50 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. 


LMK

	
Tue Apr 23 03:28:41 EDT 2019

Fayette-
Including the city of Lexington
328 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.TODAY...Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest
winds 5 to 15 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows in
the lower 50s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers.
Highs around 70. Northeast winds up to 5 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with chance of showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Southeast
winds up to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest
winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. Chance of showers
70 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 60s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs around 70. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s. 

    
JKL

	Tue Apr 23 03:40:17 EDT 2019

Breathitt-
Including the city of Jackson
340 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.TODAY...Warm. Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest
winds around 10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers. Lows in
the upper 50s. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the
morning. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late. Highs
in the lower 70s. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers late. Lows
in the upper 50s. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning,
then a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in
the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. Light winds. Chance of rain
50 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with showers likely and a slight chance
of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 70. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.SATURDAY...Sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 70. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 70s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. 

   
 

Weather Summaries

LMK

	
Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KLMK ]


JKL

	
Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KJKL ]
     
PAH

	Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KPAH ]
   
 


Weather Discussions

LMK

	

295 
FXUS63 KLMK 230713
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
313 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Early This Morning Through Mid Afternoon...

A few light returns are showing up on radar well to the north of the 
CWA at this hour, and are associated with warm advection/isentropic 
lift to the SE of a Great Lakes surface low. That activity doesn't 
impact us, and we'll stay dry here overnight through a good portion 
of Tuesday. Other than some variable upper level cloudiness, look 
for partly sunny skies and steady WSW winds mostly between 10 and 20 
mph. A few gusts up around 25 mph will be possible, especially over 
toward the Bluegrass. Despite the increasing clouds through the 
afternoon, highs should still reach up into the upper 70s to around 
80 along and south of the Ohio River. North of the river, temps will 
be a bit lower because a cold front will impinge on that area 
quicker. Look for mid 70s for highs.

Late Afternoon Through The Evening...

The aforementioned Great Lakes low pressure system will move east 
into Canada by later this afternoon and evening, with the trailing 
cold front sliding down into our area. Given upper 50s to near 60 
dew points pooling ahead of the front, and at least some heating for 
destabilization, we should see somewhere around 750-1500 J/KG of ML 
CAPE by afternoon/evening. Scattered showers and storms are expected 
to develop along and just ahead of the front mostly along and south 
of the Ohio River as a result. Given modest instability and marginal 
deep layer shear (~25-30 knots) most of the storms will be of the 
garden variety. Suppose a few stronger/organized updrafts could 
produce an isolated strong wind gust or some smaller hail, however 
not overall impressed with severe potential. SPC took our area out 
of the Marginal Risk as the better deep layer shear will be 
displaced to our NE a bit. 

One other thing work noting is that the 0-6 km bulk shear vectors 
are going to be oriented roughly parallel to the cold frontal 
boundary, so there is some potential for training of showers and 
storms from W to E. Since updrafts may not survive all that long in 
the marginal shear profile, some backbuilding could occur as cells 
collapse and new updrafts quickly form to the W. Repeated brief heavy 
rainfall could cause a few nuisance flood trouble spots as grounds 
are still quite moist from recent rains. Overall, not too worried as 
the front will also be slowly progressing south which should 
mitigate the threat to train over one area for too long, but 
something to keep an eye on.

Late Tonight...

Otherwise, convection should steadily diminish after sunset with the 
frontal boundary likely stalling over our southern CWA overnight. 
Lows should sink to the upper 40s and low 50s north, with lows only 
falling to the upper 50s across southern KY.

&&

.Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Wednesday through Thursday Night...

A quasi-stationary boundary is forecast to be draped across the 
region early on Wednesday.  This front looks to become more diffuse 
during the day with at least isolated to scattered showers and 
thunderstorms during the afternoon.  Overall coverage looks to be 
greatest in our southwestern areas from western KY into the western 
half of TN.  Some mid-level height rises look likely Wednesday night 
which would allow the remaining boundary to drift northward with 
scattered thunderstorms pushing back across the region.

By Thursday, upper trough to our west, combined with a closed upper 
low over Texas will surge eastward. These features will bring 
widespread clouds and more widespread showers and thunderstorms to 
the region.  This unsettled weather looks to linger into Thursday 
night before ending from west to east by late in the period as a 
cold front slices through the region.

Highs on Wednesday will likely have a gradient of temperature across 
the region.  Highs will likely top out in the upper 60s to the lower 
70s across southern IN and northern KY.  Mid-upper 70s are likely 
south of the boundary across southern KY.  Lows Wednesday night will 
be mild with readings in the upper 50s to around 60.  Highs Thursday 
should solidly be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s across the 
region.  With the upper trough and surface front moving through 
Thursday night, we'll see temperatures drop back into the low-mid 
50s for lows.

Friday through Monday...

Friday will be a transition day across the region as the cold front 
from Thursday night pushes off into eastern KY during the day. We'll 
probably start off the day cloudy with clouds decreasing from west 
to east during the afternoon hours. Highs look to top out in the 
upper 60s to the lower 70s.  Lows Friday night will be a bit cooler 
with readings in the low-mid 40s.

A brisk zonal flow aloft will be seen across the Ohio Valley by the 
start of the weekend as surface high pressure slides off the 
southeastern US coast.  The day should start off sunny, but a fast 
moving weather system will approach from the west bringing 
increasing clouds to the area.  Highs will range from the upper 60s 
over southern IN and northern KY with lower 70s mainly confined to 
areas south of the Cumberland Parkway.

A quick hitting system will push through the region Saturday night 
and into Sunday.  As it moves through, it looks to fall apart and/or 
shear out.  Enough lift should be present to pose a threat of some 
isolated-scattered showers in the Saturday night and early Sunday 
time frame.  Highs on Sunday will be slightly warmer with lower 70s 
over southern IN and northern KY with mid 70s down across the 
southern half of the state.

By early next week, the global models show the southeast ridge 
building back northward from the Gulf coast states into the TN 
Valley.  A mainly zonal flow regime looks to take grip once again 
forcing the storm track a bit more to the north.  This should result 
in warmer high temperatures with upper 70s and lower 80s common in 
the afternoon and overnight lows in the 50s/60s. However, this mid-
level ridging probably will not hold with showers and storms a 
likely bet as we head toward the middle of the week.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 134 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

VFR prevails for the remainder of the overnight, and for much of the 
day on Tuesday as surface high pressure to our SE holds for a bit 
longer. During this time, expect few-sct mid to upper level clouds 
with light S winds becoming a more steady WSW wind tomorrow. A few 
gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range will be possible, along with few-sct 
cumulus around 4 k feet. As we move deeper into Tuesday, a weak cold 
front trailing from a low pressure system passing through the Great 
Lakes will sink down around HNB/SDF/LEX. This feature will be enough 
to trigger scattered showers and storms in the evening hours, which 
will slowly die off after sunset. Continued mention of Prob30 -TSRA 
or -SHRA for those sites, but will keep BWG dry. Surface winds go NW 
and then N behind the front outside of any thunderstorm outflow 
boundaries which could create variable surface winds for a while.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...BJS
Long Term...MJ
Aviation...BJS


JKL

	

942 
FXUS63 KJKL 230846
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
446 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 425 AM EDT TUE APR 23 2019

Current surface analysis shows the high pressure that brought dry
and mostly clear conditions earlier today and tonight has moved 
to the east of the Commonwealth. Dry conditions will continue for 
eastern Kentucky through this morning; however, some higher clouds
have begun to move into the region early this morning ahead of an
approaching system. 

A low pressure system is currently located over southern 
Wisconsin, with a cold front draped down into Illinois and 
Missouri and extending into Oklahoma. Chances for rain showers 
will be on the increase in the far north as this system progresses
towards the state later this afternoon. There will also be a fair
amount instability in the north this afternoon, as can be seen in
model soundings showing MUCAPE values between 1200 and 1500 J/kg.
Therefore, thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and into
early this evening, mainly along and north of the Mountain 
Parkway. The surface cold front will slow and eventually stall 
over the state, keeping periods of rain showers in the forecast 
through Wednesday evening. Model soundings show MUCAPE values 
around 1500 J/kg Wednesday afternoon in the Cumberland Basin 
region as well. Thus, the potential for thunderstorms will return 
Wednesday afternoon and evening, but mainly for west-central 
Kentucky.

Looking at current satellite imagery, not much fog development 
has occurred so far tonight compared to this same time last night.
The GOES-16 Night Fog channel shows a few, isolated areas of 
potential fog; however, any fog will lift and dissipate after the 
sunrise this morning. Also, there is presently about a 10 degree 
temperature difference between some valleys in the far east and 
the ridgetops. In general, temperatures in the valleys are in the 
lower to upper 40s, whereas ridgetops and areas west are in the 
50s. A few spots even registered temperatures in the upper 50s to 
around 60 degrees in the last hour. Not expecting temperatures to 
decrease much more than a few degrees through early this morning.

High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Low 
temperatures will then be in the 50s overnight tonight. With the 
cold front moving over the state and stalling, highs will only top
out to be in the low to mid 70s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 446 AM EDT TUE APR 23 2019

The extended portion of the forecast begins on Wednesday night with a 
rather active pattern in place. The upper level pattern will 
maintain a split type flow through much of the extended. On 
Wednesday night, an exiting wave along the northern stream will 
leave a boundary draped across Kentucky as another wave will be 
ejecting east along the southern stream. The low will track south 
into the TN Valley but will still expect showers and thunderstorms
across the area for Thursday and into Thursday night. While some 
instability for this will be available across the area, expect 
thunderstorms chances to give way to showers Thursday night and 
Friday as the system pushes east. There appears to be some 
interaction in the northern stream and southern stream as this 
feature pushes east through eastern Kentucky Thursday and into 
Friday. In a progressive pattern, a passing high pressure system 
will provide a dry day for Saturday before the next wave moves 
into the area. 

By Saturday night into Sunday, a developing ridge in the western
CONUS will send the next feature of concern into the northern
Plains and pushing southeast through the Midwest and into the OH
Valley Saturday night into Sunday. A lack of strong instability
will mean that the likely precip will be showers. However, a
change in dynamics will leave a chance for thunder and this may
need revisited in the coming model runs especially in this time of
year. By Sunday night, another break in precip will be in store as
a mid level ridging develops over the southeast CONUS. This will
provide a day of dry weather before the next system impacts east
Kentucky in this busy pattern. Return flow set up over the region
will bring warm and moist air into the TN and OH Valleys. With a
boundary developing across northern Kentucky, showers and
thunderstorms are expected Monday night and in to Tuesday. Some
additional model runs will be needed to properly assess this
period as the potential for some strong storms seem possible. 
Overall, temperatures will be at or above normal through the 
extended. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT TUE APR 23 2019

Surface high pressure has progressed to the southeast of the 
Commonwealth. This has kept eastern Kentucky dry today and so far 
tonight. Also, some high clouds have begun to move into the 
region. The main concern for the overnight will be river valley 
fog; however, this is not expected to affect the TAF sites. Dry 
conditions will continue through the morning until a surface cold 
front approaches the state later this afternoon. This will 
increase chances of rain, but a few thunderstorms will be possible
as well. This will mainly be for areas north of the Mountain 
Parkway this afternoon through the evening. Winds will increase to
be between 7 and 14 knots and also become more southwesterly into
this afternoon. Some wind gusts to about 20 knots will also be 
possible for the far north and for portions of the Cumberland 
Basin region. By the evening, winds will become light and more 
west/northwest.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CGAL
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...CGAL

      
PAH

	
522 
FXUS63 KPAH 231027
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
527 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

The split flow regime advertised last weekend is coming to
fruition now, with a northern stream shortwave shearing out just
to the north of the area and broad ridging to the south ahead of a
southwest U.S. low. 

The impressed surface frontal boundary is just northwest of the 
WFO PAH forecast area as of 0730z and will slowly slide southeast
and stall out between 16-18z Tuesday. This will set the stage for
the pooling of moisture and instability across the central and 
southern sections of the area during the afternoon hours today. 
Most of the thunderstorm development this afternoon will be 
focused between 21z-02z, initially tied to minor vorticity maxes 
ejected from the southwest U.S. low and into the broad west- 
southwest and weakly anticyclonic flow aloft. Given the shear and 
CAPE profiles (strongly influenced in the surface to 3 km layer), 
anticipate isolated to scattered convective activity becoming 
outflow dominated by early evening. 

Very weak and broad lift further north in Missouri/Illinois
overnight will lead to intermittent showers along and north of the
weakened frontal boundary. 

The high resolution and medium range model guidance support some
thermal/height ridging during the morning on Wednesday, as the
southwest U.S. low/trough moves into western Texas and briefly
phases with a trough axis over KS and northwest Missouri.
Anticipate a reduction in the coverage of rain, except closer to
the trough axis over southeast Missouri. 

As the elongated trough axis from northern IL/MO to the TX low
moves closer to the area, diurnal instability and moisture along
the remnants of the effective frontal boundary will generate a new
round of showers and thunderstorms from late morning through mid-
evening on Wednesday. The loss of significant CAPE will return the
area to isolated to scattered shower activity Wednesday night into
Thursday. 

On Thursday, the effective trough axis just to the north of the
WFO PAH forecast area will transform into a decent deformation
zone, as the Texas low moves quickly into Arkansas by midday
Thursday, then eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. It is
at this time, the best rainfall amounts (QPF) will be expected
across the WFO PAH forecast area Thursday afternoon. 

Although there is still some uncertainty in the timing and phasing
potential of the closed low in the lower Mississippi valley and
the northern stream trough, the expectation is that there will be
enough phasing to move the trough axis completely through the WFO
PAH forecast area by Thursday night, effectively drawing away lift
and moisture for precipitation. 

Although an isolated thunderstorm may develop enough updraft shear
to produce some minor hail or gusty winds, the predominant
environment of low shear (25-30 knots below 3 km) and most
unstable CAPE (100-2200 j2/kg2 below 3km) would mainly lend to
isolated/multicell thunderstorm development, tied closely to the
thermal/moisture gradient offered by the decayed frontal boundary.
The loss of any focused upper level forcing would shift the
environment to outflow dominated storms, then just background
broad scale lift for showers. It is more likely that we will see
isolated heavy downpours, occasional lightning, and some gusty
outflow winds with this event.

Prior to and to the south of the convective activity today,
temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. As the frontal
boundary settles in across the area through mid-week, temperatures
will hold near normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Relatively fast west northwest flow aloft will prevail through the 
weekend, and then it will back a little to more zonal for early next 
week. Impulses in this flow will bring some chances of showers and a 
few thunderstorms mainly across the northern half of the forecast 
area beginning on Saturday. At the surface, high pressure will pass 
through the region on Friday, and then southerly flow will return 
early Saturday ahead of a cold front that will make passage Saturday 
night. More high pressure is expected Sunday, but south winds will 
increase significantly and lead to more summer-like conditions for 
Monday and next Tuesday. 

The 00Z GFS is the strongest and fastest with an upper-level impulse 
that moves through the region Saturday night. It may be quite breezy 
ahead of it on Saturday with gusts 25-30 mph possible. The ECMWF and 
GFS agree that there will be a decent chance of warm advection 
showers moving eastward mainly across the northern half of the 
region on Saturday. 

The models differ in the extent to which the cold front will make it 
into or through the area. The GFS pushes it through the entire 
region Saturday night, while the ECMWF stalls it out near the Ohio 
River and the Canadian keeps it to our northwest. Impulses in nearly 
zonal flow are generally not handled well by the models, so 
confidence is not great, but this forecast will lean more toward the 
GFS and push the front through the entire area Saturday night, and 
then keep Sunday dry with surface high pressure building overhead. 
Moisture return will be very limited ahead of the front, so will 
limit PoPs and thunderstorm mention to southeast Missouri and 
southern Illinois Saturday evening, and then dry it out overnight. 

Following with the GFS solution, we will keep Sunday dry with 
surface high pressure in place, but if the ECMWF and CMC models are 
correct the boundary may be in play somewhere across our region on 
Sunday. We will not be surprised if PoPs are eventually added to the 
Sunday forecast.

With the zonal flow expected early next week, the surface boundary 
may get strung out east to west somewhere over or most likely to the 
north of our forecast area, as we await a southern stream system 
that will be weakening as it approaches the mid-Mississippi valley 
late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Confidence in timing and coverage of 
any convection Monday and Tuesday is low, so we will be advertising 
warm, breezy, and mostly dry conditions Monday and Tuesday. PoPs 
should be on the increase heading into next Tuesday night. 

Increasing low-level moisture will lead to an increase in potential 
instability across the region Monday and Tuesday. If thunderstorms 
can get going either afternoon, they could become rather strong. 
Thankfully, wind fields will not be very stout at all, so updraft 
organization may be lacking.

Temperatures will start out near normal through the weekend and then 
climb well above normal Monday and Tuesday when highs in the lower 
80s are expected over much of the region. 

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 527 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

As the cold front continues to travel southeast across the WFO PAH
TAF sites, ceilings will move from VFR to MVFR through the period.
The location and coverage of the rain will be quite variable, so
left vicinity showers where the best chance are expected in the
TAF sites. 

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...Smith

     
 

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Kentucky
Based on observations at 600am EDT, Tuesday April 23, 2019

Across Kentucky...temperatures are near 62 degrees west, near 60 degrees central, and near 57 degrees east. Current sky conditions are fair west, fair central, and fair east. In the west, relative humidity is near 64%, and the dew point is near 50 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 55%, and the dew point is near 44 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 62%, and the dew point is near 44 degrees. Current drying conditions are fair west, fair central, and fair east. Winds are from the southwest at 7 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the south at 8 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 3 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 66 degrees at Louisville International. The lowest temperature is 48 degrees at Somerset. Click here for the entire list of ag. weather observations across Kentucky.

  

Kentucky Weather Forecast

Western KY:
Central KY:
Eastern KY:

Specific and detailed farm-by-farm weather forecast information is available in your Point Ag Forecast. New County Ag Weather Page, Current Conditions:Kentucky
, U.S.
Across the Commonwealth for the next week...

Kentucky Medium & Long Range Outlook:

KENTUCKY --------------------------------------------- 6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY APR 28-MAY 2 APR 30-MAY 6 APR APR-JUN ----------- ----------- -------- --------- Temperature: Above Above Above Above Precipitation: Above Normal Normal Above .... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
Click here for the outlook maps.

 


Click here for the PAH,LEX & JKL point ag cast.


ISSUED AT 10:00 UTC ON TUESDAY APR 23 2019
DAY TUESDAY
EDT 3HR 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A NOON 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P
MAX/MIN -- 54° -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 77°
TEMP 56° 58° 61° 65° 68° 70° 72° 74° 76° 77° 76° 74° 72°
SKY COVER 35% 38% 34% 30% 26% 34% 43% 51% 58% 64% 71% 75% 80%
Clouds
DEW PT 47° 47° 49° 52° 52° 52° 54° 56° 56° 56° 56° 56° 56°
RH 68% 69% 64% 60% 54% 53% 53% 51% 48% 48% 50% 53% 59%
POP 12HR -- 1% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
RAIN/SNOW (liq.equ) -- 0.00in -- -- -- -- -- 0.00in -- -- -- -- --
SNOWFALL -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- --
WIND SPEED(MPH) 7 7 8 10 13 14 15 15 15 15 14 13 9
WIND Gust(MPH) 9 10 14 15 22 23 23 24 24 23 23 16 15
WIND DIR S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W
DEW -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
HeatIndex 56 58 61 65 68 70 72 74 76 77 76 74 72
Rain Showers -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Slight Chance Slight Chance Chance Chance
Thunder Storm -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Slight Chance Slight Chance Chance Chance
WIND CHILL -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SPRAY COND
DRY COND
LIVESTOCK COLDSTRESS
LIVESTOCK HEATSTRESS 56.49 58.14 60.56 63.64 65.67 67.10 68.59 69.90 71.08 71.79 71.27 70.07 69.02



DAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAY
EDT 6HR 8P 9P 10P 11P MIDN 1A 2A 3A 4A 5A 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A NOON 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 8P 11P 2A 5A 8A 11A 2P 5P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P
MAX/MIN -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 52° -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 70° -- -- -- -- 58° -- -- 72° -- -- 54° 68° -- -- 45° 70° -- -- 56° 74° -- -- 54° 76° --
TEMP 68° 67° 65° 63° 61° 59° 58° 58° 56° 56° 54° 54° 52° 54° 56° 58° 61° 65° 67° 68° 70° 70° 70° 67° 61° 61° 58° 61° 68° 72° 72° 67° 58° 56° 67° 63° 49° 47° 68° 67° 59° 58° 72° 70° 56° 56° 74° 72°
SKY COVER 85% 87% 89% 91% 90% 89% 88% 87% 87% 86% 84% 82% 81% 78% 76% 73% 70% 68% 65% 66% 67% 69% 70% 72% 73% 74% 81% 87% 89% 90% 94% 97% 93% 71% 33% 14% 9% 6% 18% 46% 65% 71% 43% 42% 35% 33% 41% 35%
Clouds
DEW PT 56° 56° 56° 56° 54° 54° 52° 52° 52° 50° 49° 49° 47° 47° 49° 49° 49° 49° 50° 50° 52° 52° 52° 54° 54° 54° 54° 56° 58° 58° 56° 56° 56° 52° 49° 43° 38° 38° 43° 47° 50° 54° 54° 52° 49° 50° 54° 54°
RH 66% 68% 72% 77% 78% 80% 80% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 82% 79% 77% 69% 64% 58% 55% 52% 53% 53% 54% 62% 78% 80% 89% 83% 67% 61% 57% 68% 90% 89% 50% 50% 68% 67% 40% 50% 72% 86% 51% 55% 77% 80% 51% 54%
POP 12HR 47% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 59% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 18% -- -- -- 40% -- -- -- 62% -- 61% -- 10% -- 1% -- 9% -- 20% -- 19% -- 21% -- 16%
RAIN/SNOW (liq.equ) 0.03in -- -- -- -- -- 0.12in -- -- -- -- -- 0.00in -- -- -- -- -- 0.00in -- -- -- -- 0.00in -- 0.07in -- 0.07in -- 0.03in -- 0.15in -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SNOWFALL 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
WIND SPEED(MPH) 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 2 2 2 5 5 5 2 2 2 5 6 7 8 7 6 6 7 8 7 5 7 7 7 8 9 8 7 6 7 9 8
WIND DIR W W W W W NW N N N N N NE NE NE NE NE E S SW SW W W NW E SE S S S SW SW SW SW SW NW N N NE E SE S S SW W N E NE SW SW
HeatIndex 68 67 65 63 61 59 58 58 56 56 54 54 52 54 56 58 61 65 67 68 70 70 70 67 61 61 58 61 68 72 72 67 58 56 67 63 49 47 68 67 59 58 72 70 56 56 74 72
Rain Showers Likely Likely Chance Chance Chance Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance -- -- -- -- -- -- Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Likely Likely Likely Chance -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance -- --
Thunder Storm Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance -- -- -- -- -- -- Slight Chance Slight Chance -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Slight Chance Slight Chance -- -- -- --
WIND CHILL -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SPRAY COND
DRY COND
LIVESTOCK COLDSTRESS
LIVESTOCK HEATSTRESS 66.28 65.56 64.05 62.47 60.73 58.98 58.09 58.07 56.26 56.26 54.45 54.45 52.67 54.55 56.35 58.14 60.56 63.57 64.97 65.57 67.10 67.10 67.17 65.29 60.73 60.76 58.05 60.79 66.33 69.17 68.88 65.56 58.04 56.17 64.75 61.84 50.72 49.14 64.96 64.75 58.97 58.06 68.44 67.23 56.35 56.31 69.90 68.66

Click on individual weather variable above in left-hand column (ie., TEMP, RH, QPF 12HR) to view state forecast maps






NWS 48 Hr. Forecast Maps,

Harzardous Weather Outlooks

PAH

	
Tue Apr 23 04:13:30 EDT 2019

Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
312 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are forecast over part of the outlook area this
afternoon and this evening. A brief heavy downpour, occasional 
lightning, and isolated gusty winds will possible. Any 
thunderstorms that develop should remain below severe limits. 

Flooding will continue on several area rivers. Please check the 
latest river flood warnings and statements for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A chance of thunderstorms is forecast Wednesday and Thursday
across the outlook area. 

Another small chance of thunderstorms is forecast with a cold 
front crossing southeast Missouri and southern Illinois Saturday 
evening. Locally heavy downpours and lightning will be the primary
concerns.

At this time, any thunderstorms that are expected to develop 
should remain below severe limits. 

Flooding will continue on several area rivers. Please check the 
latest river flood warnings and statements for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.



LMK

	

	Tue Apr 23 03:31:37 EDT 2019

Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper, 
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport, 
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, 
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, 
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, 
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, 
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, 
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, 
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, 
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, 
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, 
Burkesville, and Albany
331 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019 /231 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon and evening,
mainly along and south of the Ohio River. Lightning, wind gusts of 
35 to 45 mph, and briefly heavy rain are the main weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated thunderstorms will be in the forecast Wednesday through
Thursday. Lightning and brief heavy rain will be the main hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.


  
JKL


Tue Apr 23 03:44:28 EDT 2019

Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, 
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, 
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, 
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, 
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, 
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, 
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, 
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, 
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
344 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, mainly
north of the Mountain Parkway.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times Wednesday through Thursday, 
and again Monday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.



 

Fire Weather Outlooks

PAH

	

 

LMK

	

	
   
JKL


	
 
 
Climate and Weather Topics

============================================================================
All Maps page

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) divides the United States into 10 climate zones that vary at 10 degree farenheit increments based on average miniumum temperature.

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