-=-=-=-=-=-=-Severe Weather Safety Tips Click Here-=-=-=-=-=- What is UTC time? Click here to find out.... Mouseover to pause!......Kentucky Short-term forecast... Western KY .TONIGHT...Cloudy. Areas of freezing drizzle in the evening, then a chance of rain...possibly mixed with freezing rain and freezing drizzle after midnight. Lows around 30. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Central KY .TONIGHT...Mostly clear in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Eastern KY .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy in the evening, then a 20 percent chance of rain near dawn. Lows in the lower 30s. Light winds. +_+_+_+_+_+_+_+_+_ ....Here's the Central Kentucky 7-day hazardous weather outlook from the National Weather Service... From the UK ag weather center. Updated: 3 PM Sat Feb 16 2019 this hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central indiana and central kentucky. .day one...tonight. precipitation late tonight may begin briefly as freezing rain over portions of southeast indiana and the northern bluegrass region. a light glaze of ice may result in a few slick spots early sunday morning. .days two through seven...sunday through friday. repeated waves of rainfall tuesday through friday could bring copious amounts of rain to portions of central and southern kentucky. those with interests in river flooding need to be aware of the forecasts over the next week, especially for the cumberland, upper kentucky, and possibly green river basins. in addition, some light wintry precipitation would be possible across southern indiana and northern kentucky at times mid to late next week. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not anticipated. This hazardous forecast is provided by The National Weather Service. ...The mission of the UK Agricultural Weather Program/Center is to provide educational resources through the development of agricultural weather products and services that minimize weather surprise to Kentucky residents relative to their agricultural needs... Detailed forecast information is available in your Precision Ag Weather forecast here... -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Long-range outlooks here.
Sat Feb 16 19:20:44 EST 2019
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For the forecasted weather conditions in Kentucky this coming week, click here. All Ky summaries here, Campus hourly forecast graph Forecast graphic: PAH, LEX JKL



 Across the Commonwealth...
Western KY .TONIGHT...Cloudy. Areas of freezing drizzle in the evening, then a chance of rain...possibly mixed with freezing rain and freezing drizzle after midnight. Lows around 30. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Central KY .TONIGHT...Mostly clear in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Eastern KY .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy in the evening, then a 20 percent chance of rain near dawn. Lows in the lower 30s. Light winds.
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Kentucky
Based on observations at 700pm EST, Saturday February 16, 2019

Across Kentucky...temperatures are near 33 degrees west, near 34 degrees central, and near 38 degrees east. Current sky conditions are fair west, fair central, and fair east. In the west, relative humidity is near 81%, and the dew point is near 28 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 61%, and the dew point is near 22 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 67%, and the dew point is near 28 degrees. Current drying conditions are poor west, fair central, and fair east. Winds are calm west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the northeast at 10 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The wind chill is near 26 degrees central. Winds are calm east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category west, no stress category central, and no stress category east. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 39 degrees at Owensboro, Louisville International, and Bowling Green. The lowest temperature is 30 degrees at Covington. Click here for the entire list of ag. weather observations across Kentucky.

  
Updated Saturday, February 16, 2019

...Rain Chances Later Sunday, Then Heavy Rain Potential Across Southern KY Mid To Late Next Week...

Welcome to those attending the last day of the 2019 National Farm Machinery Show at the Kentucky Exposition Center in Lousiville. Stop by the UK College of Ag, Food and Environment, Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering exhibit today. Matt will be there to speak to you and your friends about Kentucky weather. Or just to say Hi!

Active pattern continues with multiple disturbances forecast to cross the region this work week. A warm front lifting north late tonight will bring changing winds Sunday, as well as more rain chances.

Expect a dry day with skies becoming partly cloudy. Highs will mostly range in the low to mid 40s. Precipitation chances will again increase overnight toward dawn on Sunday. Most of the precipitation will be light rain, however there is a chance for some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle north of the I-64 corridor. Little to no ice accumulation is expected.

A frontal boundary is forecast to stall somewhere in the region by mid to late week, with multiple waves of rain riding along it Tuesday through Friday. There is potential for several inches of rain during this time, which could lead to flooding and continued river flooding concerns. Right now, the heaviest rain looks to fall mostly over southern Kentucky however this could change in the coming days. Anyone with interests along rivers should pay attention to the forecast in the coming week.

Kentucky Weather Forecast

Western KY:
Central KY:
Eastern KY:

Specific and detailed farm-by-farm weather forecast information is available in your Point Ag Forecast. New County Ag Weather Page, Current Conditions:Kentucky
, U.S.
Across the Commonwealth for the next week...

Kentucky Medium & Long Range Outlook:

KENTUCKY --------------------------------------------- 6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY FEB 22-26 FEB 24-MAR 2 FEB FEB-APR ----------- ----------- -------- --------- Temperature: Above Above Normal Below Precipitation: Above Above Above Below .... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
Click here for the outlook maps.

 


Weather Story & Fire Outlook

LMK

	
JKL

	
   

Zones Forecasts

PAH

	
Sat Feb 16 19:01:57 EST 2019

McCracken-
Including the city of Paducah
601 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

.TONIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of rain or freezing rain. Lows around
30. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle in the morning. Highs
in the mid 40s. South winds around 5 mph in the morning shifting
to the west in the afternoon. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest
winds around 5 mph. 
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Northeast
winds 5 to 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of rain in the
afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance of
precipitation 90 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain.
Highs in the lower 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of rain in
the evening. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain in the evening,
then a slight chance of rain and snow after midnight. Lows in the
mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of rain. Highs in
the lower 50s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain in the evening,
then rain likely after midnight. Lows in the lower 40s. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Rain likely in the morning, then a
chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance
of precipitation 70 percent. 


LMK

	
Sat Feb 16 15:01:47 EST 2019

Fayette-
Including the city of Lexington
301 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

.TONIGHT...Mostly clear in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a
20 percent chance of rain after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s.
East winds 5 to 10 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Rain. Highs in the upper 40s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 
mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain showers.
Lows in the mid 30s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. 
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s.
West winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds
5 to 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 40s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Rain showers possibly mixed with snow showers.
Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Rain showers. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of
showers 90 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows around 40. Chance of showers
80 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain
showers. Highs around 50. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with chance of rain showers
possibly mixed with snow showers. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of
precipitation 30 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs in the lower 50s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of
showers 70 percent. 

    
JKL

	Sat Feb 16 15:39:09 EST 2019

Breathitt-
Including the city of Jackson
338 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy in the evening, then a 20 percent chance
of rain near dawn. Lows in the lower 30s. Light winds. 
.SUNDAY...Rain. Highs in the upper 40s. Light winds. Chance of
rain 90 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Rain likely in the evening, then a slight
chance of rain late. Lows in the upper 30s. West winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of
rain in the morning. Highs in the lower 40s. Light winds. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Light
winds. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain. Highs
in the lower 40s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Rain or snow. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of
precipitation 90 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Rain. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Cloudy with rain likely. Highs in the lower 50s.
Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain. Lows
in the upper 30s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain. Highs
in the mid 50s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with rain likely. Lows in the lower
40s. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Cloudy with rain likely. Highs around 60. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 

   
 

Weather Summaries

LMK

	
Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KLMK ]


JKL

	
Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KJKL ]
     
PAH

	Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KPAH ]
   
 


Weather Discussions

LMK

	

321 
FXUS63 KLMK 162329
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
629 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

Main question in the short term is the timing of precip onset 
tonight, and how the temps at that time will end up driving 
precipitation type. Transient sfc ridge axis is oriented from Lake 
Michigan to the Wabash Valley to the Lower Mississippi Valley, with 
broad ESE low-level flow over the Plains ahead of another 
progressive upper shortwave. 

As the wave heads ENE toward the Great Lakes tonight, weak 
isentropic lift will develop over the Ohio Valley as a sfc warm 
front develops to our south. Light precip will break out before 
daybreak and expand from SW to NE across Kentucky and into southern 
Indiana. Moisture is too shallow to support any ice in the clouds, 
so will remain all liquid. Temps should be warm enough to keep it 
plain rain across most of the area, but from SE Indiana into the 
northern Bluegrass, we could start just cold enough for a light ice 
glaze. Impacts should be brief and precip should be light enough 
that a Special Weather Statement will address the potential for 
slick spots.  

Periods of light rain are expected on Sunday, with the focus 
shifting toward east-central Kentucky as a low rides NE along the 
sfc warm front. Most spots should see a tenth to a quarter inch of 
precip, but will be near a half inch closer to the low pressure 
track. Temps will actually run fairly close to seasonal normals, but 
depending on the strength of the low some of our eastern areas could 
get a bit warmer.

&&

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

Rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall expected from Tuesday 
afternoon/evening through next Saturday will increase the risk for 
flooding. The heaviest rainfall is expected south of the Western 
Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways. 

Sunday night - Tuesday morning...

Rain will be exiting the region by late Sunday evening. A 170 kt jet 
streak will be oriented SW to NE over the lower Ohio Valley. The sfc 
low will track NE across the Appalachians Sunday night, allowing 
significant mid-level drying behind the fropa. Mostly dry weather is 
expected after 06z Monday, but can't rule out a few flurries Monday 
morning. Stratus will likely linger through most of Monday. Morning 
lows are forecast to be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Highs Monday 
afternoon will only recover to around 40 degrees. 

Monday night through Tuesday morning looks dry. A warm front lifts 
north through the Deep South, and a 1038 mb sfc high slides across 
to our north. Tue morning looks fairly chilly with partly cloudy 
skies and a light north wind. Have lows between 23-30 degrees from 
north to south. 

Tuesday afternoon - Wednesday night...

Strong synoptic scale lift and deep SW flow aloft will be in place 
Tuesday through next weekend. Waves of energy and moisture will be 
transported northeastward, with an upper ridge largely holding 
strong over the Bahamas. Our region will often be near the right 
entrance region of an anticyclonically-curved jet streak. Add in 
copious moisture and an oscillating frontal boundary, and this is a 
pattern conducive for heavy rainfall. The operational GFS and GEFS 
members have been consistent in taking the heaviest QPF axis through 
eastern TN. But the consensus remains for one slug of moderate to 
heavy rain to push into southern and central KY Tue night through 
Wednesday. The heaviest axis then may get shunted southward 
Wednesday night.

At this point, the axis of heaviest precipitation looks to fall 
across the TN Valley region down where the frontal boundary appears 
to be stalled. However, we would still get our fair share of the 
northern precipitation shield, especially across our southern CWA 
where several inches of rain could fall through the mid to late week 
time frame. Farther north, we may have to deal with wintry 
precipitation as the northern fringes of the precipitation shield 
are undercut by the colder airmass to the north. Look for a fairly 
sharp temperature gradient from north to south. 

Thursday - Saturday...

Thursday and Friday could see a relative lull in precipitation, 
especially north of the Cumberland Parkway. Low level ridging over 
the southern Great Lakes will attempt to exert a drying influence 
with the sfc boundary holding well south of the area. But a strong 
storm system ejecting northeast across the Plains would renew the 
heavy rainfall threat by Saturday. 

Rainfall Amounts: totals could exceed 2 inches south of the Ohio 
River with 3-4+ inches possible south of a line from Morgantown to 
Richmond. Significant rainfall could fall over the Green, 
Cumberland, and upper Kentucky River basins. Will continue to watch 
trends in the models closely.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 625 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

VFR conditions are expected this evening. Clouds will lower and 
thicken overnight as a warm front strengthens and approaches the 
area from the south. Ceilings will drop into fuel-alternate just 
before daybreak Sunday as light rain enters the region. IFR cigs are 
expected by mid morning and will continue through Sun evening along 
with light rain. Sfc temps should be just warm enough to avoid any 
precip type issues, with all rain expected at the terminals. Winds 
will be ESE tonight decreasing in strength during the overnight 
hours. Sun afternoon winds will veer to the SWW after the warm front 
lifts north through the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...RAS
Long Term...EBW
Aviation...AMS


JKL

	

846 
FXUS63 KJKL 162321
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
621 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 401 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2019

The latest surface map features high pressure draped across the
Great Lakes, with a surface cold front slowing up as it drops
southeast across the Gulf Coast States. Another area of low
pressure is currently centered across the front range of the
Rockies just south of Denver. Aloft, troughing remains positioned
across the West, with flatter flow noted across the Mississippi
Valley. 

Eastern Kentucky has been enjoying some sunshine in the wake of 
the cold frontal passage last night. Temperatures were a bit
sluggish to respond, where the better snowfall coincided with
the lingering low clouds. Current temperatures range from the 
upper 30s to the low and mid 40s. 

The dry reprieve seen today will not last, as a low level jet 
ramps up across the Tennessee Valley and advects in plentiful 
moisture across eastern Kentucky. An area of low pressure will 
organize along a frontal boundary and move across the Ohio Valley 
on Sunday. This will result in another round of widespread 
rainfall across eastern Kentucky. A cold front will then shift 
through our region Sunday night, with rainfall tapering off from 
west to east. The better QPF will occur along the Cumberland River
Basin, where between three quarters of an inch and an inch of 
rainfall will be possible. North of I-64, generally less than a 
quarter of an inch is expected.

Tonight will feature a quick drop in temperatures, with lows 
ranging from the lower 30s north, to the mid 30s south, where dew 
points are running quite a bit higher. Rain will move in from the
southwest towards dawn. There is a small chance that a touch of
freezing rain may occur near and north of I-64 into Sunday
morning; however, given the ground temperature response today, any
impacts would be fairly limited. Temperatures will warm up quickly
by the mid-morning hours, as better southerly winds engage. Highs
will range from the mid to upper 40s north, to the lower 50s
south. Rain will taper off Sunday night, with lows generally in
the mid to upper 30s.  

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 426 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2019

Upper level heights will be increasing throughout the day Monday as 
shortwave moves east of the region, and a high pressure ridge 
remains parked just southeast of Florida. Heights will continue to 
increase across Kentucky into Tuesday as an upper level low over the 
Desert Southwest continues to strengthen and dig a deeper trough 
across the region. As this low finally ejects NE late Tuesday into 
Tuesday night, so too will the troughing. This will allow for steep 
SW to NE flow from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region, 
including the Ohio Valley. Even as the upper level low and troughing 
dissolves by Wednesday night, another trough will develop across the 
West, keeping this flow in place through the end of the work week. 
This system will finally transition eastward heading into Saturday. 
With the high still parked across the Atlantic, heights will 
increase briefly Friday night into Saturday morning, before quickly 
lowering again as the system nears the Mississippi Valley. MOdels 
are all in surprisingly good agreement about this pattern throughout 
the extended.

At the surface, high pressure will be in control for Monday into 
Monday night with the increasing heights in place. However, once the 
SW flow takes hold, multiple rounds of low pressure are expected to 
ride NE towards the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys starting Tuesday 
evening and continuing throughout the rest of the workweek. This SW 
flow will keep temperatures to remain mild, with no strong push of 
cold air behind any passing system. Any system riding along this 
flow will also be able to tap into Gulf moisture and introduce 
strong moisture advection into the region. The surface low placement 
and associated precip are in fairly good agreement throughout the 
extended. However, subtle differences in the extent, timing, and 
magnitude of the precip can have major impacts on the forecast, and 
will likely change in the coming days with each new model run. The 
ECMWF has actually ramped up the precip throughout the extended with 
this last run, with the GFS has backed off slightly. Using a 
combination of a blend of models and the WPC precip guidance, ended 
up with a QPF forecast of 2 inches in the north and just over 5 
inches in the far SE between Tuesday and Saturday. 

With such saturated soils in place due to above normal rainfall over 
the past few weeks, forecasted rainfall of this magnitude will 
likely lead to issues, especially across the Cumberland River basin 
where the highest 4 to 5 inch amounts are currently forecast. This 
will also be in addition to the 0.6 to 0.75 inches rainfall forecast 
forecast during the short-term portion of the forecast. Flooding 
will likely occur here, and very possibly over the Kentucky river as 
well. But do keep in mind this rainfall will occur over a fairly 
large expansion of time, and as noted above, the models are still 
subject to change the magnitude and location of the rainfall this 
far out. However, there has been enough model consistency thus far 
to have moderate confidence in some level of flooding and associated 
impacts across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2019

The latest GOES-16 Satellite data and obs show an area of stratus
remains in place in the far southeast this afternoon. This has had
some minor affects on LOZ/SME at times, with a scattered deck of 
MVFR clouds. This stratus deck will relent through the evening 
and clouds will be on the increase areawide through the night into
the early morning hours on Sunday. The LAMP probs and HREF show 
MVFR will become likely through the late morning and early 
afternoon from southwest to northeast. This seems reasonable as 
rain overspreads eastern Kentucky, as a storm system develops and 
progresses toward the Ohio Valley. These CIGs will drop to low 
MVFR and IFR through the afternoon, with some period of IFR VIS 
possible in heavier instances of rain. The winds will remain 
light out of the east and northeast before veering around to the 
south and southeast through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...DJ

      
PAH

	
588 
FXUS63 KPAH 162340
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
538 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance. Also upped pops for 
this evening in parts of se Missouri from kpof west and north. Radar 
indicates some echoes moving northeast toward the Missouri border. 
This activity will overspread the Ozark foothills this evening, most 
likely as freezing rain. Amounts will be under one tenth inch. 
Current advisory and special weather statement handles things 
adequately.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

As mentioned in the midday forecast update, the combination of
cloud cover and melting snow an ice has slowed any significant
rise in temperatures today, despite the filtered sunshine.

Still anticipate a slow drop in temperatures tonight after sunset,
with slightly colder temperatures expected in place due to the
deeper snow/sleet/ice cover. This will push several locations
across parts of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and mainly
the southern part of west Kentucky at or below freezing during the 
evening hours, then holding steady and slowly rising after
midnight from the southeast.

Given decent isentropic upglide, anticipate an expansion of
precipitation to develop across southeast Missouri and southwest
Kentucky shortly after sunset. Some locations may be a brief
period of very light freezing or frozen precipitation before
changing to rain overnight with temperatures above freezing.

However, it appears that some of the foothill counties of
southeast Missouri may see temperatures hover at or below freezing
for most of the night. Given the duration and greater QPF in this
area of southeast Missouri, elected to issue a Winter Weather
Advisory overnight. Even a small amount of sub-freezing moisture
on roads in that area may cause travel problems overnight. The
subfreezing precipitation may start and end within one hour plus
or minus the time of the advisory, but any core impacts should be
within the 00z Sunday (6 pm CST Saturday) to 12z Sunday (6am CST
Sunday) time frame.

Some locations outside of the advisory area may see 1-2 hour
duration of light precipitation at or slightly below the freezing
mark. For now, plan to continue a Special Weather Statement over
the area to reflect the transitory impact. The location likely to
see the longest duration of sub-freezing precipitation impacts
will be north of I-64 in southern Illinois after midnight into
early Sunday morning.

The patchy rain and drizzle will work northeast during the day on
Sunday with temperatures across the entire area expected to remain
above freezing. Dry weather and slightly below normal 
temperatures will be the rule Sunday night through Monday. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Medium confidence in the extended with models in good general 
agreement with both synoptic scale features and timing of systems.

The unsettled pattern will persist through the week with a couple 
systems poised to move through the region. To start off with we will 
have a southwest flow aloft that will guide a surface low into the 
region mid week. The latest model runs indicate this surface low 
will lift out the gulf and lift into the TN valley. The 
deterministic models all agree on the system waiting until Tuesday 
afternoon to reach our area. The Canadian is even slower with an 
evening arrival. The main thing will be that most of the 
precipitation with this system should be liquid. However could not 
rule out a mix along the north and northwest periphery of the 
forecast area...namely along the Interstate 64 corridor overnight. 
This system will depart to the east Wednesday night. By Thursday 
morning high pressure will build into the region from the west. A 
second system will lift out of the Gulf but take a little more 
southerly path through the gulf states. However the gulf will remain 
open as the southwest flow aloft persists with abundant moisture 
available. This will result in another chance of rain Thursday night 
into Friday. PW's of around an inch...for both systems...will allow 
for at least moderate rainfall. With LI's very positive for this 
time frame along with K index values under 20...will leave thunder 
out at this time for both systems. Finally for the weekend we will 
have yet another surface low lift out of the gulf only this time an 
upper level long wave trough will move east out of the rockies and 
add a support for the weekends system. Will monitor next weekends 
system closely. The southwest flow will keep us at or above normal 
for temperatures in the extended.


&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 538 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Large area of mid and high clouds over our region this evening will 
give way to mvfr cigs overnight. Some mvfr vsbys are likely in areas 
of drizzle and fog. A period of freezing drizzle is likely from kcgi 
to kmvn for up to a few hours. 

Sunday will be drizzly with widespread stratus clouds. Mainly mvfr 
cigs are expected with pockets of ifr cigs. Winds will be light. 

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST 
     Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107-108.

IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MY
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...MY

     
 

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Kentucky
Based on observations at 700pm EST, Saturday February 16, 2019

Across Kentucky...temperatures are near 33 degrees west, near 34 degrees central, and near 38 degrees east. Current sky conditions are fair west, fair central, and fair east. In the west, relative humidity is near 81%, and the dew point is near 28 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 61%, and the dew point is near 22 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 67%, and the dew point is near 28 degrees. Current drying conditions are poor west, fair central, and fair east. Winds are calm west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the northeast at 10 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The wind chill is near 26 degrees central. Winds are calm east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category west, no stress category central, and no stress category east. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 39 degrees at Owensboro, Louisville International, and Bowling Green. The lowest temperature is 30 degrees at Covington. Click here for the entire list of ag. weather observations across Kentucky.

  
Updated Saturday, February 16, 2019

...Rain Chances Later Sunday, Then Heavy Rain Potential Across Southern KY Mid To Late Next Week...

Welcome to those attending the last day of the 2019 National Farm Machinery Show at the Kentucky Exposition Center in Lousiville. Stop by the UK College of Ag, Food and Environment, Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering exhibit today. Matt will be there to speak to you and your friends about Kentucky weather. Or just to say Hi!

Active pattern continues with multiple disturbances forecast to cross the region this work week. A warm front lifting north late tonight will bring changing winds Sunday, as well as more rain chances.

Expect a dry day with skies becoming partly cloudy. Highs will mostly range in the low to mid 40s. Precipitation chances will again increase overnight toward dawn on Sunday. Most of the precipitation will be light rain, however there is a chance for some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle north of the I-64 corridor. Little to no ice accumulation is expected.

A frontal boundary is forecast to stall somewhere in the region by mid to late week, with multiple waves of rain riding along it Tuesday through Friday. There is potential for several inches of rain during this time, which could lead to flooding and continued river flooding concerns. Right now, the heaviest rain looks to fall mostly over southern Kentucky however this could change in the coming days. Anyone with interests along rivers should pay attention to the forecast in the coming week.

Kentucky Weather Forecast

Western KY:
Central KY:
Eastern KY:

Specific and detailed farm-by-farm weather forecast information is available in your Point Ag Forecast. New County Ag Weather Page, Current Conditions:Kentucky
, U.S.
Across the Commonwealth for the next week...

Kentucky Medium & Long Range Outlook:

KENTUCKY --------------------------------------------- 6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY FEB 22-26 FEB 24-MAR 2 FEB FEB-APR ----------- ----------- -------- --------- Temperature: Above Above Normal Below Precipitation: Above Above Above Below .... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
Click here for the outlook maps.

 


Click here for the PAH,LEX & JKL point ag cast.


ISSUED AT 00:00 UTC ON SUNDAY FEB 17 2019
DAY SATURDAY SUNDAY
EDT 3HR 9P 10P 11P MIDN 1A 2A 3A 4A 5A 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A NOON 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P
MAX/MIN -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 31° -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 47°
TEMP 34° 34° 32° 31° 31° 31° 31° 32° 32° 32° 32° 34° 34° 36° 36° 38° 40° 43° 45° 45° 47° 45° 45°
SKY COVER 21% 22% 23% 36% 50% 63% 70% 77% 83% 89% 94% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% 95%
Clouds
DEW PT 25° 25° 25° 25° 25° 25° 25° 25° 25° 25° 27° 27° 29° 31° 34° 36° 40° 41° 43° 43° 43° 43° 43°
RH 66% 68% 72% 74% 74% 74% 74% 72% 71% 75% 78% 78% 81% 85% 92% 91% 96% 95% 92% 92% 88% 92% 92%
POP 12HR -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 24% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
RAIN/SNOW (liq.equ) -- -- -- -- -- 0.00in -- -- -- -- -- 0.00in -- -- -- -- -- 0.13in -- -- -- -- --
SNOWFALL -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- --
WIND SPEED(MPH) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
WIND Gust(MPH) 9 10 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
WIND DIR NE NE NE E E E E E E E E E E SE SE SE S S S S SW SW W
DEW Frost Frost Frost Frost Frost Frost Frost Frost Frost Frost -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
HeatIndex 28 27 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 25 25 27 28 29 31 34 36 38 41 45 47 45 45
Snow Showers -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Rain -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Slight Chance Slight Chance Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Definite Definite Definite Likely Likely Likely
Rain Showers -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
WIND CHILL 28° 28° 25° 24° 24° 24° 24° 24° 24° 25° 25° 28° 28° 30° 30° 33° 35° 39° 41° 41° -- 41° 41°
SPRAY COND
DRY COND
LIVESTOCK COLDSTRESS



DAY MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY
EDT 6HR 8P 9P 10P 11P MIDN 1A 2A 3A 4A 5A 6A 7A 8A 11A 2P 5P 8P 11P 2A 5A 8A 11A 2P 5P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P
MAX/MIN -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 34° -- -- 38° -- -- -- -- 25° -- -- 41° -- -- 34° 52° -- -- 40° 49° -- -- 34° 52° -- -- 41° 58° --
TEMP 43° 43° 43° 41° 41° 40° 40° 38° 36° 36° 34° 34° 34° 34° 38° 38° 34° 31° 27° 27° 25° 31° 40° 41° 40° 34° 40° 49° 52° 45° 40° 49° 45° 40° 36° 50° 45° 43° 43° 58° 56°
SKY COVER 93% 93% 94% 94% 92% 90% 88% 87% 86% 85% 83% 82% 81% 77% 74% 69% 63% 34% 46% 44% 59% 49% 67% 74% 96% 98% 98% 94% 98% 95% 87% 80% 87% 79% 70% 61% 70% 78% 91% 87% 91%
Clouds
DEW PT 43° 41° 40° 38° 38° 36° 36° 34° 34° 32° 31° 31° 31° 29° 29° 27° 27° 25° 25° 25° 22° 23° 25° 25° 27° 29° 36° 45° 47° 43° 40° 38° 34° 34° 31° 36° 38° 38° 40° 49° 49°
RH 95% 92% 88% 89% 85% 85% 85% 88% 88% 88% 88% 92% 92% 82% 69% 62% 72% 81% 88% 92% 87% 71% 57% 52% 59% 81% 82% 82% 79% 92% 100% 63% 65% 79% 85% 58% 76% 82% 89% 72% 74%
POP 12HR 76% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 25% -- -- -- 12% -- -- -- 2% -- -- -- 8% -- 90% -- 86% -- 74% -- 26% -- 27% -- 25% -- 50% -- 73%
RAIN/SNOW (liq.equ) 0.08in -- -- -- -- -- 0.00in -- -- -- -- -- 0.00in -- 0.00in -- 0.00in -- 0.00in -- 0.00in -- 0.00in -- 0.00in -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SNOWFALL 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
WIND SPEED(MPH) 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 7 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 9 9 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 10
WIND DIR W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W NW N N NE NE NE E E E E E S SW W NW NW N NE NE E NE E E S S
HeatIndex 38 38 37 35 35 34 33 31 29 28 27 25 25 26 30 31 29 26 22 21 19 24 35 36 35 27 34 49 52 45 35 49 45 35 29 50 45 38 38 58 56
Snow Showers -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Definite -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Rain -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Rain Showers Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Likely Definite Definite Likely Likely Chance Chance -- Chance Slight Chance -- Chance Chance Chance Likely Likely Likely
WIND CHILL 38° 38° 38° 35° 35° 34° 34° 32° 29° 29° 27° 27° 27° 26° 31° 31° 28° 26° 22° 22° 18° 25° 35° 36° 35° 27° 34° -- -- 41° 35° -- 42° 36° 30° -- 41° 39° 38° -- --
SPRAY COND
DRY COND
LIVESTOCK COLDSTRESS

Click on individual weather variable above in left-hand column (ie., TEMP, RH, QPF 12HR) to view state forecast maps






NWS 48 Hr. Forecast Maps,

Harzardous Weather Outlooks

PAH

	
Sat Feb 16 04:11:48 EST 2019

Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
311 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Very light freezing rain and snow will be possible tonight from 
the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri, through southern 
Illinois and the Evansville Tri State. Isolated slick spots may 
develop on bridges and untreated roads.

Minor to moderate flooding is occurring or forecast on most area 
rivers. Refer to the flood warnings and statements for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a chance of a wintry mix Tuesday night and again 
Thursday night over mainly the northwest part of the outlook 
area. At this time, it is too early to determine any measurable 
wintry amounts.

Minor to moderate flooding remains forecast on most area rivers. 
Refer to the flood warnings and statements for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports of precipitation tonight are appreciated.



LMK

	

	Sat Feb 16 18:33:03 EST 2019

Grayson-Hardin-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-
Jessamine-Clark-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-
Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-
Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Lawrenceburg, 
Versailles, Lexington, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, 
Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, 
Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, 
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, 
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, 
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, 
and Albany
632 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019 /532 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Repeated waves of rainfall Tuesday through Friday could bring 
copious amounts of rain to portions of central and southern Kentucky.
Those with interests in river flooding need to be aware of the 
forecasts over the next week, especially for the Cumberland, upper 
Kentucky, and possibly Green River basins. 

In addition, some light wintry precipitation would be possible 
across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky at times mid to late
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.


  
JKL


Sat Feb 16 16:18:31 EST 2019

Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, 
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, 
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, 
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, 
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, 
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, 
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, 
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, 
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
418 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a small chance of freezing rain north of I-64 towards
dawn.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A small chance of freezing rain will linger for a few hours early
Sunday morning north of I-64. 

Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain through next week will 
bring a threat of flooding of creeks, streams, and rivers across 
the area. At this time, it appears that this threat is highest for
locations south of the I-64 corridor. Please see the latest
hydrological outlook for more information.

Snow is possible generally north of the Mountain Parkway and in
the highest elevations near the VA border on Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.



 

Fire Weather Outlooks

PAH

	

 

LMK

	

	
   
JKL


	
 
 
Climate and Weather Topics

============================================================================
All Maps page

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) divides the United States into 10 climate zones that vary at 10 degree farenheit increments based on average miniumum temperature.

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