-=-=-=-=-=-=-Severe Weather Safety Tips Click Here-=-=-=-=-=- What is UTC time? Click here to find out.... Mouseover to pause!......Kentucky Short-term forecast... Western KY ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...Rain. Lows around 40. Northeast winds around 10 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Central KY ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... .TONIGHT...Periods of showers. Lows in the mid 40s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of showers near 100 percent. Eastern KY .TONIGHT...A chance of showers in the evening, then showers late. Lows in the lower 50s. Light winds. Chance of rain 80 percent. +_+_+_+_+_+_+_+_+_ ....Here's the Central Kentucky 7-day hazardous weather outlook from the National Weather Service... From the UK ag weather center. Updated: 4 AM Wed Feb 21 2018 ...flood watch in effect through saturday night... this hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central indiana and central kentucky. .day one...today and tonight. a few thunderstorms embedded in a larger area of showers will be possible today. wind gusts to 40 mph will be the main threat. a wave of showers, and a few thunderstorms, will move through the region tonight, especially after midnight. rainfall amounts of one half to three quarters of an inch can be expected along and a few counties either side of the ohio river. low lying areas that receive the heaviest rain may start to see water pooling. .days two through seven...thursday through tuesday. several rounds of rainfall are likely through saturday night across southern indiana and portions of central kentucky. the axis of heaviest rainfall looks to be across southern indiana and west- central kentucky where 3 to 5 inches of rainfall may occur through early sunday morning. locally higher amounts will be possible. this rainfall combined with saturated soils will lead to area creeks and streams running high with flooding likely in many locations. therefore a flood watch is in effect through saturday night. strong thunderstorms are possible saturday afternoon and evening and may produce damaging winds. .spotter information statement... reports of flooding will be welcome through the weekend. spotters may be needed to report strong storms saturday afternoon and evening. This hazardous forecast is provided by The National Weather Service. ...The mission of the UK Agricultural Weather Program/Center is to provide educational resources through the development of agricultural weather products and services that minimize weather surprise to Kentucky residents relative to their agricultural needs... Detailed forecast information is available in your Precision Ag Weather forecast here... -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Long-range outlooks here.
Wed Feb 21 18:21:27 EST 2018
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For the forecasted weather conditions in Kentucky this coming week, click here. All Ky summaries here, Campus hourly forecast graph Forecast graphic: PAH, LEX JKL



 Across the Commonwealth...
Western KY ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...Rain. Lows around 40. Northeast winds around 10 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Central KY ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... .TONIGHT...Periods of showers. Lows in the mid 40s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of showers near 100 percent. Eastern KY .TONIGHT...A chance of showers in the evening, then showers late. Lows in the lower 50s. Light winds. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Kentucky
Based on observations at 600pm EST, Wednesday February 21, 2018

Across Kentucky...temperatures are near 39 degrees west, near 52 degrees central, and near 60 degrees east. Current sky conditions are light rain west, cloudy central, and mostly cloudy east. In the west, relative humidity is near 89%, and the dew point is near 36 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 89%, and the dew point is near 49 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 92%, and the dew point is near 58 degrees. Current drying conditions are poor west, poor central, and poor east. There is patchy fog west. Winds are from the north at 10 mph west, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to light rain. The wind chill is near 32 degrees west. Winds are from the north at 14 mph central, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Winds are from the northeast at 3 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category west, no stress category central, and no stress category east. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 61 degrees at Somerset and London. The lowest temperature is 39 degrees at Paducah. Click here for the entire list of ag. weather observations across Kentucky.

  
Updated Wednesday Evening, February 21, 2018

...Very Wet Wednesday through the Weekend ...

Combined with today's rainfall, looking at the potential for 3 to 6+ inches of rainfall through the weekend. In fact, widespread showers is in the forecast each day. The highest totals are expected across Western and Central Kentucky and the lowest across Southeastern Kentucky. This will be on top of already saturated grounds. The state has averaged over 4 inches through February so far. Average rainfall for the month is 3.68. Based on preliminary data with the UK Ag Weather Center, the additional rainfall looks to push Kentucky close, if not into, the top 10 wettest February's on record for the state.

This will likely result in more flooding across the area. A Flood Watch has been issued for much of the western half of Kentucky and into the Bluegrass.

For livestock producers, now is time to make sure livestock are out of low lying locations.

For drivers, if water is crossing the roadway, turn around. Two feet of water can move a car. It is also possible the road has been washed out.


Kentucky Weather Forecast

Western KY:
Central KY:
Eastern KY:

Specific and detailed farm-by-farm weather forecast information is available in your Point Ag Forecast. New County Ag Weather Page, Current Conditions:Kentucky
, U.S.
Across the Commonwealth for the next week...

Kentucky Medium & Long Range Outlook:

KENTUCKY --------------------------------------------- 6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY FEB 27-MAR 3 MAR 1-MAR 7 MAR MAR-MAY ----------- ----------- -------- --------- Temperature: Above Normal Normal Above Precipitation: Above Above Above Above .... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
Click here for the outlook maps.

 


Weather Story & Fire Outlook

LMK

	
JKL

	
   

Zones Forecasts

PAH

	
Wed Feb 21 16:37:02 EST 2018

McCracken-
Including the city of Paducah
331 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Rain. Lows around 40. Northeast winds around 10 mph
with gusts to around 25 mph. Chance of precipitation near
100 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Highs
in the upper 50s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Lows in the lower 50s.
Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening shifting to the south
after midnight. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Showers. Highs in the lower 60s. West winds 5 to 10 mph
in the morning shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance
of precipitation 90 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely in the evening, then showers and a
slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Some thunderstorms
may produce heavy rainfall after midnight. Lows in the mid 50s.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
morning, then showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the
morning. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of precipitation
90 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Showers and a chance of
thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers after
midnight. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of precipitation
90 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely after midnight.
Lows in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of
precipitation 90 percent. 


LMK

	
Wed Feb 21 16:01:37 EST 2018

Fayette-
Including the city of Lexington
347 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...Periods of showers. Lows in the mid 40s. Northeast
winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of showers near 100 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Periods of showers. Highs in the mid 50s. Northeast
winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of showers 90 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 50s.
Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of showers 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Showers. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of showers 80 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the upper 50s. Southwest winds
5 to 10 mph. Chance of showers 90 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Showers and chance of thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Highs in the upper 60s.
Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Lows in the lower
50s. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 60s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain
showers. Highs in the upper 50s. 

    
JKL

	Wed Feb 21 16:33:34 EST 2018

Breathitt-
Including the city of Jackson
410 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.TONIGHT...A chance of showers in the evening, then showers late.
Lows in the lower 50s. Light winds. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Warm, cloudy. Showers likely. Highs in the lower 60s.
Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the evening,
then a slight chance of showers late. Lows in the mid 50s. Light
winds. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the
morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the
upper 70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain
30 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s. Light winds. 
.SATURDAY...Cloudy with showers likely and a slight chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 60s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cooler. Mostly cloudy. Lows 35 to 40. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows 30 to 35. 
.TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs around 60. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 33 to 38. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of rain
showers. Highs in the upper 50s. 

   
 

Weather Summaries

LMK

	
Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KLMK ]


JKL

	
Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KJKL ]
     
PAH

	Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KPAH ]
   
 


Weather Discussions

LMK

	

160 
FXUS63 KLMK 212102
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
402 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

...Updated Hydro Section...

...SIGNIFICANT LONG DURATION RAINFALL EVENT INTO THE WEEKEND...

...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL 
KENTUCKY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

Early this afternoon, a surface cold front was draped from Middle 
Tennessee up into eastern Kentucky. Now that the leading rain band 
has cleared the CWA and weakened somewhat, shower activity is fairly 
scattered east of I-65. The deep moisture axis still runs from 
Little Rock up through Bloomington. With just weak forcing, showers 
across central KY and southern IN will remain fairly light this 
afternoon. 

Tonight, however, a shortwave impulse will swing northeast from the 
Lower Mississippi Valley. In addition, the area will remain within 
the right entrance region of a substantial upper jet over the Upper 
Midwest and Great Lakes. A 40-50 kt southerly LLJ punches in from 
Tennessee, resulting in strong isentropic lift especially along the 
axis of the Ohio River. A wave of moderate to heavy rainfall is 
likely, and rainfall amounts should exceed 1 inch near and west of a 
Russellville to Louisville line through 7 AM Thu. Lows tonight will 
generally be in the 40s, with some 50s possible in the far southeast 
closer to the surface boundary.

On Thursday, showers with tonight's wave will gradually slide south 
into central/southern KY. Moderate rainfall looks likely south 
of the WK/BG parkways. High temperatures will generally be in the 
50s though there could be some 60s in the south as that surface 
trough to our southeast potentially drifts back to the north a bit.

It looks like we may see a relative lull in rainfall Thursday 
evening into the first part of the night. However, a persistent 
stream of moisture will continue into the Ohio Valley. Another wave 
of low pressure moving northeast will reinvigorate moderate showers 
and perhaps isolated storms along the quasi-stationary boundary late 
Thu night/early Friday, mainly north of the Ohio River.

&&

.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

On Friday, the heavy rain potential looks to remain mainly along and 
north of the Ohio River. That boundary draped further north will 
result in warmer high temps, particularly across central KY. Highs 
should end up in the 70s for those areas. 

Friday night into Saturday morning, a low pressure system will 
deepen over the High Plains. One more warm frontal boundary lifts 
through the region, likely resulting in widespread showers with 
embedded thunder. Saturday looks like a warm day, even with showers. 
But we may briefly see precip scatter out quite a bit in the warm 
sector. 

Then, a potent 500mb trough finally swings out of the Western U.S. 
and may close off over the Upper Midwest Saturday night. Central KY 
and southern Indiana will simultaneously be located underneath a 
coupled upper jet structure, and a very strong LLJ looks to develop. 
An occluding surface cyclone will also track northeast through the 
Upper Midwest and drag a strong cold front through the forecast area 
Saturday night into early Sunday. There is some severe weather risk 
with this frontal passage. Convection would most likely be low-
topped, in the form of a squall line. Damaging winds would be the 
main threat. There is also a substantial flooding threat of course, 
and will maintain the current Flood Watch. But given saturated soils 
and additional heavy rainfall, we may see more trees come down in 
the face of relatively less wind. 

An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall will be possible, with 
locally higher amounts, with the frontal passage through Sunday 
morning. It's at this point in the weekend that the risk for 
Moderate Flooding on the Ohio River ramps up as well. Widespread 
minor areal flooding would be possible as well, so may need to 
consider an eastward expansion to the Flood Watch at some point. 

Welcome high pressure will then move in to dry us out for the first 
part of the new week. The high will be of Pacific origin, as opposed 
to Canadian/Arctic, so mild temperatures will continue.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1245 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

Currently, a cold front is extending through eastern Kentucky 
extending from the northeast to the southwest. There is a line of 
heavy rain at the front of this cold front and lighter rain behind 
the line stretching northwest across western and central Kentucky 
and southern Indiana. The TAF sites will likely experience a break 
in the rain during the afternoon. This break should only last a few 
hours before the rain builds in from the southwest this evening. 
Heavy rain tonight is expected. Ceilings at all TAF sites is 
expected to drop to IFR conditions. LIFR conditions are very likely. 
Winds will remain from the north to northeast.

&&

.Hydrology...
Updated at 355 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

Minor flooding continues along the Ohio River at Tell City, 
Cannelton, and Louisville.

Synoptic models continue to advertise 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over 
the next four and a half days through Saturday night across much of 
the region. This range has been very consistent over the past few 
days. As with any convective, long term event, some locally higher 
amounts will be possible depending on where multiple axes of heavier 
precipitation develop. The most likely geographical area to get the 
most rain will be those locations west of I-65.   

This rainfall combined with already saturated soils will lead to 
excessive runoff through the period. This will result in flooding 
issues in the typical low-land and flood prone areas.  In addition, 
ongoing river flooding will become worse with time as the runoff 
makes its way into the rivers.

Current river forecasts that are out are based on forecasts that 
contain 72 hours of future rainfall.  Therefore, with the additional 
rainfall coming this weekend, these river forecasts will likely 
trend upward over the next few days.  Ensemble river forecasts show 
that some of our points will rise into the moderate flood range. It 
is important to note that there are some QPF forecasts that could 
push some of our points into major flood status.  Again, these 
forecasts are *highly dependent* on where the heavy rainfall 
actually develops.

Much of the following stage information comes from various ensemble 
model packages, and is likely to change as new data are ingested by 
those models. **Also remember that the rain that will be responsible 
for the rises on the rivers hasn't even fallen yet, so significant 
river stage forecast changes should be expected over the coming 
days.**

...Ohio River...

The river from Louisville to Tell City is forecast by ensemble 
modeling to reach moderate flood levels. Current model forecasts 
show that this could occur by late Friday afternoon at Tell City, 
Saturday morning at Cannelton, and early Sunday morning at 
Louisville. At least minor flooding is predicted at Clifty Creek, 
with moderate flooding possible.

...Green River and Rough River...

At Dundee, minor flooding is forecast by Friday with moderate 
flooding possible at Dundee by Saturday night.

At least minor flooding is expected at Woodbury Thursday night and 
Rochester Friday night. Munfordville and Alvaton will approach flood 
stage, but are not forecast to hit flood stage at this time.

...Rolling Fork River...

Boston may rise to moderate flood late this weekend, and there is a 
1 in 3 chance that it hits major flood stage.

...Kentucky River...

Minor flooding is forecast by ensemble models to begin at Lockport 
this weekend. Peaks Mill on Elkhorn Creek may reach moderate flood, 
but this is a smaller, flashier stream and is more difficult to 
predict very far in advance.

Given the consistent and consecutive heavy rainfall forecasts from 
the guidance, a Flood Watch is in effect for the northwestern 2/3rds 
of KY and all of southern Indiana for the duration of the overall 
event, through Saturday night.  

Residents of southern Indiana and central Kentucky should remain 
alert this week for flooding.  Stay tuned for the latest forecasts 
and updates through the week.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ023>043-045>049-
     053>055-061>065-070>074.

&&

$$

Short Term...EBW
Long Term...EBW
Aviation...KDW
Hydrology...13/BJS


JKL

	

938 
FXUS63 KJKL 212157
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
457 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 457 PM EST WED FEB 21 2018

Late this afternoon a cold front was positioned just northwest of
the VA border and was about to stall. Showers which were occurring
along the front have diminished somewhat. Scattered showers will
continue to cross the region into the night, but a relative lull
is expected. A large area of precipitation was occurring to our 
west and southwest this afternoon, from LA to southern IN. It was
associated with moist flow off the Gulf impinging on the frontal 
boundary, and being coupled with the right entrance region of an 
upper level jet. The heaviest precip was on the southern end. This
regime will shift northeast tonight. Models have struggled to an
extent with the position of the heaviest precip. A blended
solution suggests that although more rain can be expected in the
northwest portion of our area late tonight, the heaviest precip
should be just to our northwest. For that reason, have decided to
forego a Flood Watch. However, the situation will continue to be 
monitored, especially for the far northwest portion of the 
forecast area, just in case it pans out differently.

Precip could linger into Thursday morning, especially in the
northern part of the area, but after that a relative lull should
occur. Models have depicted another round of rain moving in from
the southwest late Thursday or Thursday evening, but show even
more variation in their solutions. The latest 18Z NAM has come in
very bullish, but is not backed up well by the GFS for the 
amounts. Hence, confidence is not very high at this point.

In terms of precip type, a mix of stratiform and convective rain 
is expected, but have not included thunder. There were a few 
lightning strikes this afternoon in our area, but the activity 
weakened and does not look very impressive any longer.

Temperatures will be a challenge. The wavering frontal boundary
and its exact position will play a critical role. Temporal 
temperature curves will also show some nondiurnal tendencies.
These things considered, have loaded a blend of model data into
the hourly grids and derived the max and min readings from this. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM EST WED FEB 21 2018

Active weather will continue into the weekend. Heights will
continue to run well above normal Friday into Saturday. Departing
shortwave energy to the north on Friday, will allow for a mainly
dry day for most locations on Friday. A few showers could hold on
in the Bluegrass region, but heavy rainfall is not expected to be
a concern through Friday night. However, very warm conditions will
continue with afternoon highs again pushing upper 70s to around 80
in our eastern counties. Our records are fairly high on Friday, so
chances of breaking them are low. However, it will be a near
record kind of day. Warm conditions will continue Saturday night.
A shortwave will track across the area Friday night into 
Saturday, providing an uptick in shower chances. As we get into 
Saturday, there is even some instability that may be tapped 
allowing for a few thunderstorms. A strong low and associated 
shortwave trough will swing across the great lakes late Saturday 
into Saturday night pushing a strong cold front across Kentucky. A
few thunderstorms could be seen with the front, although its 
coming through Saturday night which would limit the potential 
severe threat. We could still see some gusty winds ahead and
behind the cold front Saturday night. Regardless, a local heavy 
rain threat could exist in some places. Way too early for any 
watches for this time period and any watch would be contingent on 
how rainfall plays out over the next several days. Thus, for now, 
will continue to highlight in the HWO and ESF. 

Looks like we will finally dry out on Sunday into
early next week as high pressure makes a much needed return to the
area. Rain chances could return by next Wednesday, but lots of
uncertainty is seen with those rain chances, so will keep chances
very low. It will turn more seasonable by early next week, as the
warm weather finally loosens its grip on the area. A few nights
could see lows in the valleys dipping into the 20s in fact.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EST WED FEB 21 2018

A broken line of showers along a cold front bisected the region
from SW to NE at the start of the period. Conditions outside of 
showers were mainly VFR, with IFR in the heavier showers. The 
front and its showers will continue to move slowly southeast 
through the area this afternoon. A deterioration to at least MVFR 
should occur by around 23Z, by which time the front should be 
stalled over the far southeast portion of the forecast area. IFR 
conditions area expected to develop north of the front early this 
evening and generally persist through the night, with showers at 
times. The front is then forecast to creep northward on Thursday 
with a return to MVFR and VFR conditions over the southeast half 
of the area on the warm side of the front.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL

      
PAH

	
951 
FXUS63 KPAH 212243
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
443 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 440 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Update for 00z aviation only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday 
Issued at 256 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

No changes to the Flood Watch planned this afternoon. Two
disturbances will bring swaths of moderate to heavy rainfall to
the region tonight and again Thursday night into Friday. This will
eventually create more runoff than can be handled by already
swollen rivers and streams across the region. 

The bigger concern in the short term is icing potential this 
afternoon into the evening along the northwestern periphery of the
forecast area. In this area temperatures are hovering near the 
freezing mark and some light glazing of elevated objects has 
already been reported in a few locations. Very little measurable 
rain has fallen across this area so far today, but a swath of 
steady light to moderate rain is beginning to spread northeast 
over it. 

The warm ground should prevent roads from icing up this afternoon,
but elevated surfaces including bridges could become a problem. 
The consensus of short range temperature guidance has temperatures
climbing sufficiently above freezing by around 03Z to get rid of 
the freezing rain potential, but if the cold air lingers much 
longer more substantial issues could develop. We will continue 
with the Special Weather Statement approach for now, and if we get
reports of significant travel difficulties we may need to issue a
short Advisory.

As for the Flood Watch, we have had numerous reports of ditches
and creeks at bankful across portions of the area, mainly
southeast Missouri, but no major flood issues as of yet. The
consensus of 12Z model guidance brings a swath of moderate to 
heavy rain northeast across the region this evening into the
overnight hours. The 12Z NAM is probably a little overdone as it
deepens a surface low and lifts the old cold frontal boundary
northward close to Ft Campbell overnight. 

WPC is playing a more southeasterly track for the best rains
tonight, which sounds good given that the boundary currently 
extends from northwest Alabama into central Mississippi. Tried to
introduce a healthy dose of WPC QPF to our superblend of 
everything for this event. This will put the heaviest rains over 
the Bootheel and west Kentucky. It appears that the rains will 
push east of the area by 12Z Thursday, but some lighter showers 
may linger along the TN border through the day Thursday. Some
elevated instability will be available so some rumbles of thunder
will also be possible.

It appears that most, if not all of the area will be dry Thursday,
but little relief from the ever increasing water levels across the
area is expected. With the Ohio River rising higher in flood,
tributaries will get backed up leaving nowhere for the runoff to
go.

Our next upper-level impulse will be strong enough to induce a
weak surface low that will track over or just north of our
forecast area late Thursday night. There will be plenty of
elevated instability to support a chance of thunderstorms, as a
swath of heavy rainfall pushes northeast across the region,
especially north and west of the Ohio River overnight Thursday 
night. As this system moves east of the area, the cold front 
trailing behind the surface low will hang up along or just south 
of the Ohio River, so moderate rains could continue through the 
day Friday in west Kentucky. Flooding issues are likely to develop
or worsen by Friday morning. It looks like northwest portions of 
the area may see another dry period Friday afternoon, but as
stated above there will still be plenty of standing water around
as it will have no where to go.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Wednesday) 
Issued at 256 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

The extended portion of this forecast package introduces the last
and most dynamic of the series of systems bringing rain to the 
WFO PAH forecast area for Friday night into Saturday night. 

The 12z Wednesday deterministic 20km GFS and 12km NAM-WRF model 
suite seemed to initialize well and have similar solutions on 
instability for thunderstorms Saturday into early Saturday evening. 

At this time, the greatest instability works along the AR/MO and 
KY/TN borders by mid-morning on Saturday with most unstable CAPE 
remaining below 600 j/kg,increasing to 600-1000 j/kg mainly over west 
Kentucky by noon, then peaking between 600-1200 jg over southeast 
IL, southwest IN, and west Kentucky by mid-afternoon on Saturday. 

The aforementioned areas of potential instability coincide with the 
sharpening and ejection of a close low from the four Corners of the 
Southwest U.S. Friday night,  Colorado and Iowa, onward to Iowa 
Saturday afternoon, and northern Michigan early Sunday. On Saturday 
afternoon, the upper low takes on a slight negative tilt, enhancing 
warm air advection and instability through the area and leading to 
some potential for strong to severe storms in the WFO PAH forecast 
area.

Prior to that time, the GFS and NAM-WRF focus most of the heavy 
rain potential into northern sections of southeast Missouri and 
through southern Illinois Friday night into Saturday morning. as 
deep layer moisture is advected back into the region and interacts 
with northward moving warm front. 

Periodic and scattered convective activity will dominate the rest of 
the WFO PAH forecast area Saturday morning, with the focus of the 
heaviest rainfall moving into Southeast Missouri with a potential 
line of thunderstorms, advecting northeast through the afternoon 
before leaving by day break Sunday. 

The overall rainfall from Friday night through Saturday night will 
range from one and a half to two inches, with the heaviest QPF 
(rainfall amounts) over west Kentucky and southwest Indiana. 

Dry conditions should persist from Sunday through next Wednesday, 
with another chance for rain late next week. At this point, there is 
low confidence on any chances for rain after Wednesday. 

Temperatures will remain at or above normal through the extended 
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 440 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

IFR conditions will persist overnight with rain br. The rain
should taper off from west to east starting around sunrise
Thursday. This should allow vsby to go VFR but cigs will stay IFR
through the valid time of the TAFs. Winds will remain northeast
but decreased in intensity and start to shift more easterly during
the day Thursday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KH
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...KH

     
 

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Kentucky
Based on observations at 600pm EST, Wednesday February 21, 2018

Across Kentucky...temperatures are near 39 degrees west, near 52 degrees central, and near 60 degrees east. Current sky conditions are light rain west, cloudy central, and mostly cloudy east. In the west, relative humidity is near 89%, and the dew point is near 36 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 89%, and the dew point is near 49 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 92%, and the dew point is near 58 degrees. Current drying conditions are poor west, poor central, and poor east. There is patchy fog west. Winds are from the north at 10 mph west, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to light rain. The wind chill is near 32 degrees west. Winds are from the north at 14 mph central, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Winds are from the northeast at 3 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category west, no stress category central, and no stress category east. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 61 degrees at Somerset and London. The lowest temperature is 39 degrees at Paducah. Click here for the entire list of ag. weather observations across Kentucky.

  
Updated Wednesday Evening, February 21, 2018

...Very Wet Wednesday through the Weekend ...

Combined with today's rainfall, looking at the potential for 3 to 6+ inches of rainfall through the weekend. In fact, widespread showers is in the forecast each day. The highest totals are expected across Western and Central Kentucky and the lowest across Southeastern Kentucky. This will be on top of already saturated grounds. The state has averaged over 4 inches through February so far. Average rainfall for the month is 3.68. Based on preliminary data with the UK Ag Weather Center, the additional rainfall looks to push Kentucky close, if not into, the top 10 wettest February's on record for the state.

This will likely result in more flooding across the area. A Flood Watch has been issued for much of the western half of Kentucky and into the Bluegrass.

For livestock producers, now is time to make sure livestock are out of low lying locations.

For drivers, if water is crossing the roadway, turn around. Two feet of water can move a car. It is also possible the road has been washed out.


Kentucky Weather Forecast

Western KY:
Central KY:
Eastern KY:

Specific and detailed farm-by-farm weather forecast information is available in your Point Ag Forecast. New County Ag Weather Page, Current Conditions:Kentucky
, U.S.
Across the Commonwealth for the next week...

Kentucky Medium & Long Range Outlook:

KENTUCKY --------------------------------------------- 6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY FEB 27-MAR 3 MAR 1-MAR 7 MAR MAR-MAY ----------- ----------- -------- --------- Temperature: Above Normal Normal Above Precipitation: Above Above Above Above .... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
Click here for the outlook maps.

 


Click here for the PAH,LEX & JKL point ag cast.


ISSUED AT 23:00 UTC ON WEDNESDAY FEB 21 2018
DAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY
EDT 3HR 8P 9P 10P 11P MIDN 1A 2A 3A 4A 5A 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A NOON 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P
MAX/MIN 68° -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 45° -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 56°
TEMP 52° 50° 50° 49° 49° 47° 47° 47° 45° 45° 47° 47° 49° 49° 50° 52° 52° 52° 52° 54° 54° 54° 54° 56°
SKY COVER 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 98% 98%
Clouds
DEW PT 49° 47° 45° 45° 43° 43° 43° 43° 45° 45° 45° 45° 45° 45° 45° 45° 47° 47° 47° 47° 49° 49° 49° 49°
RH 92% 88% 82% 82% 82% 86% 89% 88% 96% 96% 92% 92% 89% 85% 82% 80% 82% 80% 83% 79% 83% 80% 80% 80%
POP 12HR 75% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 97% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
RAIN/SNOW (liq.equ) 0.07in -- -- -- -- -- 0.12in -- -- -- -- -- 0.67in -- -- -- -- -- 0.21in -- -- -- -- --
SNOWFALL 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- --
WIND SPEED(MPH) 10 13 13 13 13 13 10 10 13 10 10 10 9 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7
WIND Gust(MPH) 15 22 23 23 23 22 21 18 21 15 14 14 14 16 15 14 13 10 8 8 7 7 7 7
WIND DIR N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE E E
DEW -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
HeatIndex 52 50 50 49 49 47 47 47 45 45 47 47 49 49 50 52 52 52 52 54 54 54 54 56
Rain Showers Scattered Scattered Numerous Periods of Periods of Periods of Periods of Periods of Periods of Periods of Periods of Periods of Periods of Periods of Periods of Periods of Numerous Numerous Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely
Thunder Storm -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
WIND CHILL -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 39° 40° -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SPRAY COND
DRY COND
LIVESTOCK COLDSTRESS



DAY FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY
EDT 6HR 8P 9P 10P 11P MIDN 1A 2A 3A 4A 5A 6A 7A 8A 11A 2P 5P 8P 11P 2A 5A 8A 11A 2P 5P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P
MAX/MIN -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 52° -- -- 72° -- -- -- -- 56° -- -- 68° -- -- 52° 61° -- -- 38° 58° -- -- 36° 56° -- -- 40° 58° --
TEMP 56° 56° 56° 56° 52° 52° 54° 56° 56° 58° 59° 61° 63° 68° 72° 72° 67° 61° 58° 58° 56° 61° 63° 68° 63° 61° 61° 61° 56° 45° 40° 56° 52° 40° 38° 56° 49° 41° 41° 58° 52°
SKY COVER 97% 96% 94% 94% 94% 93% 93% 93% 93% 93% 92% 90% 89% 93% 92% 97% 96% 96% 96% 98% 96% 98% 98% 98% 96% 96% 62% 34% 42% 41% 48% 25% 19% 20% 17% 12% 41% 36% 54% 65% 85%
Clouds
DEW PT 49° 49° 49° 49° 50° 50° 52° 52° 52° 54° 54° 56° 56° 59° 59° 58° 58° 56° 54° 54° 54° 56° 58° 58° 58° 56° 50° 38° 34° 31° 31° 34° 34° 31° 29° 34° 36° 32° 36° 40° 41°
RH 80% 80% 77% 77% 92% 92% 92% 89% 86% 83% 83% 83% 80% 73% 66% 63% 72% 83% 89% 89% 93% 86% 81% 67% 83% 86% 70% 42% 43% 60% 69% 43% 48% 66% 69% 44% 58% 69% 79% 52% 65%
POP 12HR 91% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 57% -- -- -- 75% -- -- -- 86% -- -- -- 83% -- 98% -- 35% -- 0% -- 0% -- 1% -- 0% -- 0% -- 46%
RAIN/SNOW (liq.equ) 0.07in -- -- -- -- -- 0.06in -- -- -- -- -- 0.06in -- 0.09in -- 0.14in -- 0.08in -- 0.29in -- 0.29in -- 0.22in -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SNOWFALL 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
WIND SPEED(MPH) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 14 14 9 7 5 2 5 7 9 13 13 9 13 15 10 8 5 5 5 5 5 7 6 7 6 7 7 7
WIND DIR E E E E SE SE SE SE S S S S S SW SW SW SW W SW SE SE S S S S S W W W NW NE N N E E SE E SE S S S
HeatIndex 56 56 56 56 52 52 54 56 56 58 59 61 63 68 72 72 67 61 58 58 56 61 63 68 63 61 61 61 56 42 36 56 52 38 34 56 49 38 37 58 52
Rain Showers Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Definite Definite Likely Likely Definite Definite Definite Definite Likely Likely Definite Definite Chance -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Chance Chance Likely
Thunder Storm -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Slight Chance Chance -- Slight Chance Slight Chance -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
WIND CHILL -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 43° 37° -- -- 37° 33° -- -- 37° 36° -- --
SPRAY COND
DRY COND
LIVESTOCK COLDSTRESS

Click on individual weather variable above in left-hand column (ie., TEMP, RH, QPF 12HR) to view state forecast maps






NWS 48 Hr. Forecast Maps,

Harzardous Weather Outlooks

PAH

	
Wed Feb 21 16:41:58 EST 2018

Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
341 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Rain will continue across the region tonight, with moderate to
heavy rainfall possible over the Missouri Bootheel and west
Kentucky. The additional rains may lead to some flooding issues
tonight. The Flood Watch continues.

Some light freezing rain is possible through early this evening in
areas from Van Buren to Marble Hill and Perryville Missouri and 
Murphsboro to Pinckneyville Illinois. Please refer to the Special 
Weather Statement for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are forecast through
Saturday night. Flooding issues are likely to develop. Please 
refer to the Flood Watch for details. 

A few storms may reach severe limits over west Kentucky and 
southwest Indiana Saturday afternoon. Locally damaging wind and 
heavy rain will be the primary threats at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation cannot be ruled out Saturday afternoon. In
addition, reports of heavy rainfall and flooding would be very
helpful.



LMK

	

	Wed Feb 21 16:28:18 EST 2018

Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper, 
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport, 
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, 
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, 
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, 
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, 
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, 
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, 
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, 
Providence, Scottsville, and Glasgow
358 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 /258 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A wave of showers, and a few thunderstorms, will move through the
region tonight, especially after midnight. Rainfall amounts of 0.75 
to 1.25 inches can be expected along and a few counties either side 
of the Ohio River. Low lying areas that receive the heaviest rain may
start to see water pooling.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Several rounds of rainfall are likely through Saturday night across 
southern Indiana and portions of central Kentucky. The axis of 
heaviest rainfall looks to be across southern Indiana and west- 
central Kentucky where 3 to 5 inches of rainfall may occur through
early Sunday morning. Locally higher amounts will be possible. This 
rainfall combined with saturated soils will lead to area creeks and 
streams running high with flooding likely in many locations. Therefore
a Flood Watch is in effect through Saturday night.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday evening and
Saturday night as a cold front sweeps through the region. The main
threat is damaging winds. 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of flooding will be welcome through the weekend. Spotters may
be needed to report strong storms Saturday afternoon and evening.


  
JKL


Wed Feb 21 17:18:28 EST 2018

Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, 
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, 
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, 
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, 
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, 
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, 
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, 
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, 
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
507 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Rain is expected at times Thursday into Sunday, and could be heavy
at times. Thunderstorms will also be possible Saturday and
Saturday night. If confidence for heavy rainfall increases enough,
a Flood Watch may need to be issued at a later time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.



 

Fire Weather Outlooks

PAH

	

 

LMK

	

	
   
JKL


	
 
 
Climate and Weather Topics

============================================================================
All Maps page

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) divides the United States into 10 climate zones that vary at 10 degree farenheit increments based on average miniumum temperature.

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