-=-=-=-=-=-=-Severe Weather Safety Tips Click Here-=-=-=-=-=- What is UTC time? Click here to find out.... Mouseover to pause!......Kentucky Short-term forecast... Western KY .TONIGHT...Widespread showers. Lows in the mid 60s. Southeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Central KY ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... .OVERNIGHT...Cloudy. Scattered showers late in the evening, then showers and patchy drizzle after midnight. Near steady temperature in the lower 60s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of showers 80 percent. Eastern KY ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... .REST OF TONIGHT...Showers. Near steady temperatures in the mid 60s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. +_+_+_+_+_+_+_+_+_ ....Here's the Central Kentucky 7-day hazardous weather outlook from the National Weather Service... From the UK ag weather center. Updated: 3 PM Sun Sep 23 2018 ...flash flood watch in effect from 11 pm edt /10 pm cdt/ this evening through wednesday afternoon... this hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central indiana and central kentucky. .day one...tonight. scattered to numerous showers are forecast tonight. localized heavy rainfall is likely in some areas and this rain may cause an impact to the early monday morning commute, especially along and west of the i-65 corridor. .days two through seven...monday through saturday. waves of scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms monday through wednesday will produce heavy rainfall. localized flooding of small creeks and streams is likely with the most intense rainfall. a few strong storms may also produce gusty winds tuesday afternoon into tuesday night. .spotter information statement... spotters should report any heavy rainfall totals as well as flooding over the next several days. This hazardous forecast is provided by The National Weather Service. ...The mission of the UK Agricultural Weather Program/Center is to provide educational resources through the development of agricultural weather products and services that minimize weather surprise to Kentucky residents relative to their agricultural needs... Detailed forecast information is available in your Precision Ag Weather forecast here... -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Long-range outlooks here.
Mon Sep 24 04:00:12 EDT 2018
Desktop   Dialup   PointAgCast   Rainfall   Mobile   KyMesonet   Maps

Home| Current Conditions| Forecasts| Satellite| Radar| Media| Outlooks| Drought| Severe| Tropical Wx| Winter Wx| Climatology| Calc| Fire| NWS| Historical| About Us| Spring Ag-Update| Glance| GlanceClim| All Ag| All AgObs|

Click here for more summaries. All Text Messages from NWS: All NWS Offices, Alt., All Products , Paducah , Louisville , Jackson , LexCam , All KY Obs., All Obs, AMS, Working5, All-AG, WxCarousel2, Text-Matrix, 3-NWS, working page #7

For the forecasted weather conditions in Kentucky this coming week, click here. All Ky summaries here, Campus hourly forecast graph Forecast graphic: PAH, LEX JKL



 Across the Commonwealth...
Western KY .TONIGHT...Widespread showers. Lows in the mid 60s. Southeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Central KY ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... .OVERNIGHT...Cloudy. Scattered showers late in the evening, then showers and patchy drizzle after midnight. Near steady temperature in the lower 60s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of showers 80 percent. Eastern KY ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... .REST OF TONIGHT...Showers. Near steady temperatures in the mid 60s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Kentucky
Based on observations at 300am EDT, Monday September 24, 2018

Across Kentucky...temperatures are near 69 degrees west, near 65 degrees central, and near 65 degrees east. Current sky conditions are light rain west, cloudy central, and light rain east. In the west, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 67 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 63 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 63 degrees. Current drying conditions are poor west, poor central, and poor east. The livestock heat stress category is no stress west, no stress central, and no stress east. There is patchy fog west and east. Winds are calm west, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to light rain. Winds are from the east at 6 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm east, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to light rain. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 72 degrees at Hopkinsville. The lowest temperature is 63 degrees at Covington. Click here for the entire list of ag. weather observations across Kentucky.

  
Updated Sunday Evening, September 23, 2018

...Unsettled Conditions Continue Through Mid-Week; Heavy Rain Continues Possible...

A frontal boundary will remain located south of the region for the next several days. Aloft, a southwest flow will remain in place allowing several atmospheric disturbances to pass through the region. These disturbances will bring repeated rounds of rainfall to the region. A strong cold front is then forecast to push through the region by mid week bringing an end to the unsettled weather along with a shot of cooler air. Rainfall amounts over the next several days will likely average an additional 2 and 4 inches.

Kentucky Weather Forecast

Western KY:
Central KY:
Eastern KY:

Specific and detailed farm-by-farm weather forecast information is available in your Point Ag Forecast. New County Ag Weather Page, Current Conditions:Kentucky
, U.S.
Across the Commonwealth for the next week...

Kentucky Medium & Long Range Outlook:

KENTUCKY --------------------------------------------- 6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY SEP 29-OCT 3 OCT 1-OCT 7 SEP SEP-NOV ----------- ----------- -------- --------- Temperature: Above Above Above Above Precipitation: Above Above Normal Normal .... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
Click here for the outlook maps.

 


Weather Story & Fire Outlook

LMK

	
JKL

	
   

Zones Forecasts

PAH

	
Sun Sep 23 23:00:31 EDT 2018

McCracken-
Including the city of Paducah
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.TONIGHT...Widespread showers. Lows in the mid 60s. Southeast
winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. 
.MONDAY...Showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the
upper 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near
100 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
evening, then showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Lows in the upper 60s. South winds around 5 mph. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the lower
80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds
around 5 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the
morning. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. 


LMK

	
Mon Sep 24 03:58:39 EDT 2018

Fayette-
Including the city of Lexington
358 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...Showers in the morning, then showers and chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce
heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s.
Southeast winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near
100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Showers and chance of thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Near steady temperature
in the upper 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of
precipitation 90 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Highs in the upper 70s.
South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Lows in the upper 60s.
South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Highs in the mid 70s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs around 70. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 70s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 

    
JKL

	Mon Sep 24 02:12:52 EDT 2018

Breathitt-
Including the city of Jackson
212 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.REST OF TONIGHT...Showers. Near steady temperatures in the mid
60s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.MONDAY...Rain likely in the morning, then showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce
heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. Southeast
winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers and scattered thunderstorms in the
evening, then numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms late.
Lows in the mid 60s. South winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely in the morning, then showers likely and
a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the
upper 70s. South winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms in the
evening, then showers likely late. Lows in the upper 60s. South
winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows around 60. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 70s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
showers. Lows around 60. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Sunny. Highs around 80. 

   
 

Weather Summaries

LMK

	
Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KLMK ]


JKL

	
Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KJKL ]
     
PAH

	Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KPAH ]
   
 


Weather Discussions

LMK

	

473 
FXUS63 KLMK 240750
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
350 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY...
...CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

Early morning surface analysis reveals mostly cloudy conditions 
across the region.  Effective warm frontal boundary was located over 
southern KY as evidenced by temps near 70 degrees along the KY/TN 
border and decreasing into the lower 60s across southern IN.  Mid-
level perturbation is forecast to lift northward this morning and 
lead to an enhancement of rainfall across the region later this 
morning.  We're already seeing evidence of that with heavier showers 
moving into southern KY/Lake Cumberland region.

As the day wears on, the effective warm frontal boundary will 
continue to lift northward toward the Ohio River before stalling 
out.  Widespread rainfall is expected across the region this morning 
and into the afternoon hours.  By the afternoon, we'll be focusing 
on a conditional threat for some severe weather.  With warm front 
just north of the Ohio River, we'll see low-level winds pick up out 
of the south while surface winds remain generally out of the 
southeast.  This results in a curved low-level hodograph which may 
lead to some stronger storms obtaining some rotation.  The 
conditional threat exists due to uncertainty with regards to 
instability.  Widespread rainfall and clouds look to limit 
instability to an extent.  Marginal risk from SPC seems well placed 
and we agree that the main threats would be some marginally severe 
winds gusts, with an isolated supercell or two if sufficient 
instability develops. Highs today will likely range from about 73 to 
78 in most areas.  QPF amounts could be hefty in some locations.  In 
general, we're forecasting between one half and one and a quarter 
inches of rainfall today.  Some locally higher amounts are possible 
and this will only aggravate ongoing flooding issues across the 
region.

For tonight, cloudy skies will remain in place with patchy fog. 
Scattered rain showers are likely once again to develop overnight 
resulting in additional rainfall amounts of a quarter to a half 
inch.  Lows will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

...Heavy Rainfall and Strong Thunderstorms Tuesday - Tuesday Night...

Central Kentucky and southern Indiana will remain in a wet pattern 
Tuesday into Wednesday. In the upper levels, a pronounced trough 
centered over the Northern Plains and Canada will propagate eastward 
toward the Midwest and Great Lakes. Subtropical ridging to our south 
and southeast will result in broad SW flow, and our steady stream of 
Gulf moisture will continue. The latest models are showing a steady 
25 kt jet at 850 mb throughout Tuesday. At the surface, the primary 
low will actually be a deepening Hudson Bay cyclone, but a secondary 
wave is likely to get organized over the western Great Lakes. A 
fairly stout cold front will advance southeast into the Midwest 
region on Tuesday, placing the lower Ohio Valley well within the 
warm sector. 

Warm/moist advection should allow sfc dewpoints to climb into the 
lower 70s. This surge of moisture and isentropic upglide, combined 
with general synoptic-scale forcing associated with cylonic flow, 
should allow for another round of scattered to numerous showers. 
However, we will lack strong low-level forcing prior to the arrival 
of the cold front Wednesday morning. So as the SPC Day 2 discussion 
mentions, the focus for convective initiation remains unclear. But 
there is a conditional threat for strong to severe thunderstorms out 
ahead of the cold front Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. 
Instability is a big question mark here. Majority of model guidance 
would suggest an abundance of low to mid level clouds, limiting 
insolation. But a few models hint at partial clearing, perhaps over 
the eastern of southeastern forecast area. But would prefer not to 
assume too much about the mesoscale environment at this point. 

Convection that is able to develop will have 25-30 kts of deep layer 
shear to work with initially, increasing to 30-40 kts after 00z Wed. 
Forecast soundings show a veered wind profile and high precipitable 
water. The main threats appear to be flash flooding and isolated 
damaging winds. This convection will be capable of torrential 
rainfall, which could lead to serious issues given already saturated 
soils in many areas. Folks should heed any road closures Tuesday 
night, and some flooding will likely continue through the Wednesday 
morning commute. 

By Wednesday morning, the cold front is sweeping through will the 
bulk of the rainfall pushing east of I-65. Breezy northwest winds 
are forecast to develop behind the front with a brief shot of cold 
advection. After a mild, warm Tue night, temps won't move much on 
Wednesday. Lows Wednesday night are forecast to drop into the 50s, 
ranging from the low 50s in southern Indiana to near 60 at the TN 
border. We'll see one more wave aloft swing through Thu into Thu 
night, but most areas should remain dry. May keep a small PoP in the 
Lake Cumberland region. Friday through the weekend, the main 
baroclinic zone is forecast to setup well northwest of the region 
over the Plains and Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, subtropical ridging 
will build over the Southeast U.S. So we should finally get some sun 
and see highs climb back into the 70s and 80s.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

Poor flying conditions are expected overnight.  An upper level 
disturbance will move in from the southwest and across Kentucky 
overnight bringing another slug of moderate to heavy rainfall. 
Ceilings are expected to remain quite low overnight and visibilities 
will likely decrease toward dawn as well.  Winds overnight will 
generally be from the east to southeast with speeds of less than 8 
knots.

Low clouds and showers are expected to continue through the day on 
Monday.  Some thunderstorms may develop and affect the terminals 
later Monday afternoon and evening.  Winds will remain out of the 
southeast with speeds of 8-10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for INZ078-079-084-
     089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KYZ023>043-
     045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

$$

Short Term...MJ
Long Term....EBW
Aviation.....MJ


JKL

	

570 
FXUS63 KJKL 240618
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
218 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 218 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2018

We have another batch of showers now moving into the Lake 
Cumberland and Cumberland Valley region at this overnight hour. 
These will slowly spread northward tonight as a front moves back 
north through the rest of the night. Most areas will see a quarter
inch per hour rates or less, but a few isolated higher amounts 
are not out of the question in some of the more convective like 
activity. Updated POPs to better match the overall trends and also
updated to better match the current trends in obs. 

UPDATE Issued at 1113 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2018

We are starting to see isentropic ascent lead to some radar
returns developing across the Cumberland Plateau areas. This rain
should continue to expand through the rest of the night and have 
updated pops accordingly to match the trends. Looks like a very 
damp night setting up for the northwestern portion of the forecast
area. Unfortunately, these are areas that saw the heavier rain 
earlier today. We will have to monitor for potential flooding 
later tonight. Kept precipitation stratiform tonight associated
with the isentropic ascent with the frontal boundary. 

UPDATE Issued at 827 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2018

Most of the rain has dissipated as expected this evening. However,
as the front starts to lift back to the north tonight, we should
see precipitation redevelop, particularly across the north.
Updated rain chances to diminish them for several hours before
bringing in some higher rain chances a bit later on. 

UPDATE Issued at 648 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2018

Rainfall rates have fallen off considerably in the last few hours.
Had planned to let the watch go early. However, looking at hi-res
model guidance for later tonight shows another round of rain
expected to impact the northern portions of the forecast area.
Thus, instead of letting the watch expire, will go ahead an extend
a portion of the watch through 21z on Monday to capture this next
round of rain, especially considering how saturated the ground is
presently. Rainfall amounts have also been increased per WPC
guidance. Finally changed to stratiform precipitation given more
stable precipitation expected through tomorrow morning.  

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 400 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2018

19z sfc analysis shows the stalled cold front just south of
eastern Kentucky with plenty of moisture continuing to stream 
northeast along it and into the area. This brought heavy rains to 
most of the CWA with some incidents of low level and flash 
flooding today. Skies were overcast while winds were mainly light
and variable. Temperatures at 3 pm vary from the low 60s northwest 
to the lower 70s in the south while dewpoints are nearly the same 
as dry bulb readings at each site. Any thunder has stayed south 
of the area so far - though convection is possible in the far 
southeast through the rest of the afternoon. The heavier showers 
are exiting in the far east with trailing lighter rains slowly 
diminishing from the west. Will go ahead and keep the Flash Flood 
Watch going for a few more hours until the rains of any 
significance are gone.

The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict Kentucky in between
strong ridging to the southeast and troughing to the northwest.
Between these features southwest flow will carry a series of 
shortwaves across the area are running east basically along the 
Ohio River. One of the stronger waves will buckle the flow 
slightly as it passes Monday afternoon. During this time the Gulf 
of Mexico will be open and continue to pump ample moisture into 
the region. With this good agreement have gone with a general 
model blend, but did favor the CAMs solutions for the near term 
QPF forecast through tonight. 

Sensible weather will feature the heavier showers exiting the area
over the next couple of hours and then a lull until the next round
later tonight - mainly in the far west. Some shower and possible 
thunderstorms will cross the area on Monday with pockets of heavy 
rain a concern. The threat for periodic heavy rains will likely 
necessitate a new flood watch with later shifts, but for now will 
run with the existing one and issue an ESF addressing the flood 
concerns going forward. Otherwise, look for a small diurnal range 
given the clouds and rain around - cooler northwest and milder to 
the southeast. Additionally, fog will be around through the night 
associated primarily with the showers. 

Again used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as the starting point for
most of the grids with little adjustments to temperatures through
the period. Again did adjust the PoPs higher in the near term and
per the CAMs solution early this evening. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2018

The extended portion of the forecast begins on Tuesday with an 
active pattern in place. At the start, a ridge will be in place 
over the eastern CONUS just off the coast as a broad longwave 
trough will push east through the Great Lakes. This trough will 
push a shortwave through the region for Tuesday and into 
Wednesday. Ahead of the front will continue to be heavy rainfall 
at times as the model soundings suggest a saturated sounding for 
both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon with PWAT values in the 1.80 
to 1.90 and modest instability. Concerning Tuesday evening into 
the night, a potent cold front will push through Kentucky. While 
the instability seems to be lacking for this feature due to the 
persistent convective activity ahead of the front, the winds aloft
with the front may develop a squall line type of set up. Thus 
with SPC, mentioning this for Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday 
night with the front passing through, will mention some strong 
thunderstorm wording with a wind gust potential in the HWO. 
However, once again, lingering cloud cover will hinder the severe 
threat. 

As is the case for the past week, this cold front will begin to 
stall against high pressure over the east and drape across 
southeastern Kentucky again. This will again provide a focal point 
for continued afternoon convection Wednesday evening through 
Thursday night. This set up will mainly be over the southeast with 
continued rainfall potential. High pressure is expected to move into 
the area by late Friday and Saturday. Models seem to agree on the 
overall pattern heading into next weekend. Overall, a cooling trend 
is expected for the extended with a flood potential early in the 
period. A small severe wind is also possible Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2018

Some areas in the south are seeing VFR to MVFR at times such as 
LOZ/SME as a warm front advances northward. We are still seeing
IFR or lower north of the front and these will slowly erode 
through the overnight into the afternoon today. The other issue 
for the TAF cycle will be the potential for rain showers 
particularly as we move into the dawn hours. These will lead to 
lowering VIS from time to time through the afternoon today. There 
could be some instances of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, 
but for now left out of the TAFs. The winds will be light for the 
most part through the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083-104-106>109-111-112-114-119.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ

      
PAH

	
421 
FXUS63 KPAH 240326
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1026 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

With the mid-evening update...see no reason to modify location of
current Flash Flood Watch for the west Kentucky Pennyrile to the
Land Between the Lakes counties.

For the overnight hours, anticipate the most vulnerable areas for
ponding of water will be parts of Calloway and Trigg counties in 
west Kentucky. SAC-SMA estimated soil moisture in these areas are 
currently running near 60%, so percolation of water into the soils
may be slowed with the persistent rainfall over the area, 
yielding more surface/sub- surface run-off.

The surface quasi-stationary boundary over western and northwest
central Tennessee is showing some minor signs of northward drift
with time in the wind fields with the KPAH VAD wind profile
suggesting an elevated warm sector near 6 kft MSL and a weak warm
conveyor belt to 12kft AGL. This is tapping into a two inch
precipitable water plume over West Tennessee per the evening SPC
mesoanalysis.

Now add a minor low to mid-level shortwave riding up from
south-southwest to north-northeast through the WFO PAH forecast
area this evening and overnight. This enhanced lift should make
for efficient precipitation loading/drop size for increased
rainfall rates and rainfall amounts over the northern part of the
Purchase area of west Kentucky, extreme southeast Illinois, and
the Land Between the Lakes counties in west Kentucky. Shifted the
precipitation maximum of 0.75" to 1" in an arc across this area
between 1 am and 7 am CDT Monday. There is already some evidence
of this scenario playing out in the increase of light rainfall 
over southeast Illinois and southwest Indiana ahead of the
shortwave. The 10.35 (clean IR channel from the GOES-E) is 
showing some enhancement during the last half hour over the 
Purchase area of west Kentucky.

 This minor wave is embedded in southwest flow ahead of
a larger wave in central Missouri. As these shortwaves phase in
during the morning on Monday, heavier rainfall amounts should
develop over the current Flash Flood Watch area in the Pennyrile
region of west Kentucky.

At this point, the enhanced rainfall area mentioned above should
move over lesser saturated soils, running 25% to 50% saturation,
so any additional rainfall should be able to be absorbed and
slowly run-off where rain rates are highest. At the point the only
areas of concern will be the Kentucky counties bordering the Land
Between the Lakes overnight.

No changes made to temperatures and dewpoints at this time. Had
considered re-introducing some mention of thunder ahead of the
minor shortwave overnight, but the area of enhanced instability
ahead of the shortwave may not be savant for a widespread mention
of isolated or widely scattered thunderstorms overnight. However,
this will need to be monitored by the midnight crew for any 
changes.


UPDATE Issued at 702 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

Nice overrunning rain event setting up, with lead push into srn
ptns FA at this writing. Approx 1-2" of rain has already fallen in
the past 24-48 hours across the southern Pennyrile, mainly
along/east of the Lakes. This is the area to watch for additional
heavy rains, as we remain in WPC slgt risk for exceeding FFG. 

Short res modeling lifts this slug of moisture up this
evening/overnight, then late tonight-tmrw, another band (or two) gets
going, albeit shifted a little further east (Note collab w/WPC on
eastward shift). So adding to that 1-2" already fallen, another 
2-3" cumulative qpf and we could get upwards to 3-5" total qpf across
our southeastern counties (including the previous 48 hours). This
may be enough to cause some isolated flood problems on roads 
etc., although the evenly spread/nature of the event is a good 
thing. We collaborated closely with LMK/OHX (and MEG) on FFA to 
highlight this potential hazard. 

From there, we shift toward a more convective environment, as we
await the Tuesday cold front. We remain in a Day 3 slgt risk svr,
which will be primarily an afternoon/evening threat time period
for potential svr wx (damaging winds/hail). 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

ECMWF, GFS and the Canadian all show surface high pressure building 
into the middle Mississippi valley on Wednesday, helping to finally 
push the cold front farther southeast of our region.  A chance of 
showers will linger across mainly west Kentucky and southwest 
Indiana into early Wednesday, with dry conditions area wide by late 
in the day Wednesday.  

The surface high will slide east through the end of the work week. 
GFS and the Canadian move the high very slowly, while the ECMWF 
moves the high fairly quickly, which is then followed by a weak dry 
cold front on Friday.  Despite these differences, models keep our 
region dry with fairly similar temperatures and dew points. High 
temperatures will be around 6 degrees below seasonal normals on 
Wednesday, moderating to near seasonal in the middle to upper 70s by 
Friday.  Overnight lows will be near seasonal in the middle 50s.

On Saturday, a return of southerly flow will continue our slow 
warming trend and conditions should continue to be dry.  On Sunday, 
models show a boundary slowly sinking south toward our area.  With 
our increasing moisture and models indicating a smattering of QPF, 
went with some slight chances of showers and thunderstorms. 

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 702 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

A mid level disturbance will rotate through the region over the
next 24 hours as a warm front lifts north across the area late 
tonight into Monday morning. This will result in our next round of
showers tonight into at least Monday morning. A slight increase in
elevated instability may yield a few rumbles of thunder, but this
is not included in the current TAFs due to anticipated isolated 
nature. A mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings should trend towards mainly
IFR with occasional LIFR restrictions overnight into mid morning 
Monday, particularly in heavier bursts of rain. An improvement to 
MVFR ceilings is forecast by midday as winds turn southerly in 
the wake of the warm frontal passage.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for KYZ008-009-011>013-
     016-017-019>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
AVIATION...RJP

     
 

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Kentucky
Based on observations at 300am EDT, Monday September 24, 2018

Across Kentucky...temperatures are near 69 degrees west, near 65 degrees central, and near 65 degrees east. Current sky conditions are light rain west, cloudy central, and light rain east. In the west, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 67 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 63 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 63 degrees. Current drying conditions are poor west, poor central, and poor east. The livestock heat stress category is no stress west, no stress central, and no stress east. There is patchy fog west and east. Winds are calm west, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to light rain. Winds are from the east at 6 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm east, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to light rain. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 72 degrees at Hopkinsville. The lowest temperature is 63 degrees at Covington. Click here for the entire list of ag. weather observations across Kentucky.

  
Updated Sunday Evening, September 23, 2018

...Unsettled Conditions Continue Through Mid-Week; Heavy Rain Continues Possible...

A frontal boundary will remain located south of the region for the next several days. Aloft, a southwest flow will remain in place allowing several atmospheric disturbances to pass through the region. These disturbances will bring repeated rounds of rainfall to the region. A strong cold front is then forecast to push through the region by mid week bringing an end to the unsettled weather along with a shot of cooler air. Rainfall amounts over the next several days will likely average an additional 2 and 4 inches.

Kentucky Weather Forecast

Western KY:
Central KY:
Eastern KY:

Specific and detailed farm-by-farm weather forecast information is available in your Point Ag Forecast. New County Ag Weather Page, Current Conditions:Kentucky
, U.S.
Across the Commonwealth for the next week...

Kentucky Medium & Long Range Outlook:

KENTUCKY --------------------------------------------- 6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY SEP 29-OCT 3 OCT 1-OCT 7 SEP SEP-NOV ----------- ----------- -------- --------- Temperature: Above Above Above Above Precipitation: Above Above Normal Normal .... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
Click here for the outlook maps.

 


Click here for the PAH,LEX & JKL point ag cast.


ISSUED AT 07:00 UTC ON MONDAY SEP 24 2018
DAY MONDAY
EDT 3HR 4A 5A 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A NOON 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P
MAX/MIN -- -- -- -- 63° -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 72°
TEMP 65° 65° 65° 65° 65° 65° 67° 68° 70° 72° 72° 72° 72° 72° 70° 68°
SKY COVER 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Clouds
DEW PT 63° 65° 65° 63° 65° 65° 65° 67° 67° 68° 68° 70° 70° 68° 67° 67°
RH 96% 99% 100% 96% 99% 99% 96% 93% 93% 90% 86% 90% 90% 89% 93% 92%
POP 12HR -- -- -- -- 86% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
RAIN/SNOW (liq.equ) -- -- -- -- 0.82in -- -- -- -- -- 0.15in -- -- -- -- --
SNOWFALL -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- --
WIND SPEED(MPH) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 9 10 10 10
WIND Gust(MPH) 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 14 15 17 22 21 21 17 15 14
WIND DIR SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S SE SE
DEW -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
HeatIndex 65 65 65 65 65 65 67 68 70 72 72 72 72 72 70 68
Rain Showers Likely Likely Definite Definite Definite Definite Definite Definite Definite Definite Definite Definite Definite Definite Definite Definite
Drizzle Slight Chance -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Thunder Storm -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance
WIND CHILL -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SPRAY COND
DRY COND
LIVESTOCK HEATSTRESS 64.86 64.97 65.00 64.86 64.97 64.97 66.82 67.65 69.57 71.27 70.98 71.27 71.27 71.20 69.57 67.60



DAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY
EDT 6HR 8P 9P 10P 11P MIDN 1A 2A 3A 4A 5A 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A NOON 1P 2P 3P 5P 8P 11P 2A 5A 8A 11A 2P 5P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P
MAX/MIN -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 67° -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 79° -- -- -- -- 68° -- -- 74° -- -- 58° 70° -- -- 56° 74° -- -- 54° 76° -- -- 58° 77° --
TEMP 68° 67° 68° 67° 67° 67° 68° 68° 68° 67° 67° 67° 67° 68° 72° 74° 74° 76° 76° 77° 79° 72° 70° 70° 70° 68° 72° 74° 72° 65° 59° 58° 70° 67° 58° 58° 74° 65° 58° 56° 74° 67° 61° 58° 76° 68°
SKY COVER 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 83% 84% 85% 87% 89% 90% 89% 86% 89% 94% 94% 98% 93% 91% 89% 79% 69% 69% 75% 77% 68% 53% 35% 28% 15% 23% 28% 25% 24% 26% 32% 25% 16%
Clouds
DEW PT 67° 67° 67° 67° 67° 67° 67° 67° 67° 67° 67° 65° 67° 67° 67° 68° 70° 70° 70° 70° 70° 70° 68° 68° 67° 67° 68° 67° 65° 61° 58° 56° 59° 59° 56° 56° 56° 58° 54° 52° 61° 61° 58° 56° 65° 63°
RH 96% 100% 96% 100% 99% 96% 96% 96% 92% 97% 96% 93% 96% 96% 87% 84% 84% 81% 81% 79% 76% 90% 92% 96% 93% 96% 86% 81% 78% 86% 93% 89% 70% 78% 89% 89% 55% 75% 86% 86% 61% 77% 90% 92% 66% 83%
POP 12HR 100% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 85% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 63% -- -- -- 71% -- -- -- 58% -- 9% -- 15% -- 6% -- 8% -- 3% -- 7% -- 3% -- 7%
RAIN/SNOW (liq.equ) 0.31in -- -- -- -- -- 0.14in -- -- -- -- -- 0.17in -- -- -- -- -- 0.15in -- -- 0.25in -- 0.37in -- 0.48in -- 0.15in -- 0.03in -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SNOWFALL 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
WIND SPEED(MPH) 10 13 13 13 13 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 2 2 2 6 5 5 5 7 6 5 6 6 7
WIND DIR SE SE SE SE S S S S S S S S S S S S S S SW SW S S S SW SW SW W NW NW N NE NE N N SW W W N E SE SW S SE S SW S
HeatIndex 68 67 68 67 67 67 68 68 68 67 67 67 67 68 72 74 74 76 76 77 79 72 70 70 70 68 72 74 72 65 59 58 70 67 58 58 74 65 58 56 74 67 61 58 76 68
Rain Showers Definite Definite Definite Definite Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Chance Chance -- -- -- Slight Chance -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Drizzle -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Thunder Storm Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance -- -- -- Slight Chance -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
WIND CHILL -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SPRAY COND
DRY COND
LIVESTOCK HEATSTRESS 67.80 67.00 67.80 67.00 66.95 66.82 67.80 67.80 67.60 66.86 66.82 66.68 66.82 67.80 71.06 72.66 72.66 74.20 74.20 74.90 76.33 71.27 69.51 69.75 69.57 67.80 70.98 72.41 70.40 64.52 58.99 58.05 68.15 66.01 58.05 58.05 70.24 64.15 58.06 56.22 70.74 65.96 60.88 58.04 72.78 67.14

Click on individual weather variable above in left-hand column (ie., TEMP, RH, QPF 12HR) to view state forecast maps






NWS 48 Hr. Forecast Maps,

Harzardous Weather Outlooks

PAH

	
Sun Sep 23 16:03:52 EDT 2018

Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
303 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect tonight for southeast portions of
western Kentucky. Refer to the Watch for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday evening for
southeast portions of western Kentucky. Refer to the Watch for
details.

A chance of thunderstorms is forecast for all or a portion of the
area Monday through Wednesday. A few strong to marginally severe 
thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon. A slight risk 
of severe storms is forecast for Tuesday afternoon and evening. 
The primary severe storm hazards are expected to be hail and 
damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, lightning and heavy rain will 
remain the primary storm hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible Monday and Tuesday, particularly
during the afternoon and evening hours.



LMK

	

	Sun Sep 23 15:56:02 EDT 2018

Scott-Jefferson-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-Floyd-Clark-Hancock-
Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-
Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-
Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-
Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-
Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-
Clinton-
Including the cities of Scottsburg, Madison, English, Tell City, 
Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport, Hawesville, 
Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, 
Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, 
Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, 
Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, 
Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, 
Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, 
Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, 
Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, 
Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, 
and Albany
355 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018 /255 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers are forecast tonight. Localized heavy 
rainfall is likely in some areas and this rain may cause an impact 
to the early Monday morning commute, especially along and west of the
I-65 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Waves of scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms 
Monday through Wednesday will produce heavy rainfall. Localized 
flooding of small creeks and streams is likely with the most intense 
rainfall. A few strong storms may also produce gusty winds Tuesday 
afternoon into Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any heavy rainfall totals as well as flooding
over the next several days.


  
JKL


Sun Sep 23 23:10:11 EDT 2018

Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-
Magoffin-Lee-Breathitt-Owsley-Martin-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, 
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, 
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Sandy Hook, 
West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Beattyville, 
Jackson, Booneville, and Inez
1109 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Persistent rain will develop late tonight and could become heavy 
at times, leading to a threat of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Monday afternoon through
Thursday. Some of these storms could produce heavy rainfall at 
times. Flooding of creeks and streams as well as the larger river 
stems will be a concern during this time. 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of flooding 
through Monday afternoon.



 

Fire Weather Outlooks

PAH

	

 

LMK

	

	
   
JKL


	
 
 
Climate and Weather Topics

============================================================================
All Maps page

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) divides the United States into 10 climate zones that vary at 10 degree farenheit increments based on average miniumum temperature.

hits=14213