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Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/kentucky/AWUS43.KPAH ] 747 FXUS63 KPAH 281647 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1147 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread frost and a light freeze is expected early this morning. - A warming trend commences thereafter, returning well above normal temperatures by this weekend, with highs from the middle 70s to near 80 degrees Saturday through Monday. Fire danger will be heightened over parts of the region both afternoons today and tomorrow. - Rain chances return to the forecast this weekend into early next week. The best chances for rain and storms will be along a cold front that will approach Monday and make passage sometime Monday night into Tuesday. Winds will be breezy with its approach and passage, and locally heavy rain is possible with its thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Surface high pressure settles overtop the PAH FA, and along with the cool start day temps, will promote a widespread frost early this morning. Even as the center of the ridge migrates a little to the south/east, centering over the Tennessee Valley during the day, winds will remain light, less than 15 mph. This mitigates otherwise heightened fire danger, particularly in the SEMO Ozarks, where relative humidity drops to the mid 20s percentile and fuels remain dry. As the high continues its southeastward drift through Friday, the gradient tightens up here as low pressure takes shape and approaches from the west. Winds will crank up accordingly, and this will heighten fire danger again, this time mostly across Kentucky forestry from the LBL eastward, where RH drops into the upper 20s percentile and fuels are very dry. West of there, dew points are creeping up enough on the return flow southerlies to keep minimum RH above 30% for the most part. Highs in the lower 60s today should bump up about 10 degrees Friday thanks to the warm advection and overall height rise. The models track that first wave of low pressure to our north, along a boundary that lays out, heading into the weekend. The blend wants to paint some small pops in our north as this occurs, and we won't argue slight chance mentions mainly along/north of I-64. As the weekend wears on, convection along the boundary sags it a little further southward, even as more energy in the Plains portends another wave of low pressure's ride along it/this direction. The blend picks up on this by increasing/spreading pops a little higher/further southward, but still mostly in the slight to low chance range, focusing in our north and east. We like a little better chance for thunder then, Saturday night into Sunday, as the boundary is further south and dew poiints by then start to flirt with 60 degrees. It looks like there may be several hundred Joules of MUCAPE in the lower 1 KM to work with. Unseasonably warm daytime highs will range from the mid 70s to near 80 degrees Saturday-Monday. Monday gets breezy as the next big wave of low pressure lifts out of the Plains and drives a cold front our direction. Pops spike along its passage Monday night. The broader long wave trof appears positively tilted with best convective chances breaking north (closer to the low) and south (where better instability exists). PW's pop toward the 90th percentile at 1.25", and WPC paints the northern reaches of the FA under a MRGNL risk for excessive rainfall. Brisk winds continue with fropa Monday night-Tuesday, and the upper long wave trof's passage soon follows. That'll lead to a cooler/drier air mass replacement with a mid week cooldown closer to seasonal norms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 VFR conditions prevail as sfc high pressures remains in control across the south. Mainly clear skies give way to scattered high-level clouds early Friday morning. SW winds between 5-10 kts turn light & variable tonight with the loss of diurnal heating. Friday will be a bit more breezy due to better mixing. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DW DISCUSSION... AVIATION...DW Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/kentucky/ABUS30.KSDF ] Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/kentucky/AWUS43.KLMK ] Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/kentucky/AWUS43.KJKL ] Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/kentucky/AWUS43.KPAH ] 747 FXUS63 KPAH 281647 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1147 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread frost and a light freeze is expected early this morning. - A warming trend commences thereafter, returning well above normal temperatures by this weekend, with highs from the middle 70s to near 80 degrees Saturday through Monday. Fire danger will be heightened over parts of the region both afternoons today and tomorrow. - Rain chances return to the forecast this weekend into early next week. The best chances for rain and storms will be along a cold front that will approach Monday and make passage sometime Monday night into Tuesday. Winds will be breezy with its approach and passage, and locally heavy rain is possible with its thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Surface high pressure settles overtop the PAH FA, and along with the cool start day temps, will promote a widespread frost early this morning. Even as the center of the ridge migrates a little to the south/east, centering over the Tennessee Valley during the day, winds will remain light, less than 15 mph. This mitigates otherwise heightened fire danger, particularly in the SEMO Ozarks, where relative humidity drops to the mid 20s percentile and fuels remain dry. As the high continues its southeastward drift through Friday, the gradient tightens up here as low pressure takes shape and approaches from the west. Winds will crank up accordingly, and this will heighten fire danger again, this time mostly across Kentucky forestry from the LBL eastward, where RH drops into the upper 20s percentile and fuels are very dry. West of there, dew points are creeping up enough on the return flow southerlies to keep minimum RH above 30% for the most part. Highs in the lower 60s today should bump up about 10 degrees Friday thanks to the warm advection and overall height rise. The models track that first wave of low pressure to our north, along a boundary that lays out, heading into the weekend. The blend wants to paint some small pops in our north as this occurs, and we won't argue slight chance mentions mainly along/north of I-64. As the weekend wears on, convection along the boundary sags it a little further southward, even as more energy in the Plains portends another wave of low pressure's ride along it/this direction. The blend picks up on this by increasing/spreading pops a little higher/further southward, but still mostly in the slight to low chance range, focusing in our north and east. We like a little better chance for thunder then, Saturday night into Sunday, as the boundary is further south and dew poiints by then start to flirt with 60 degrees. It looks like there may be several hundred Joules of MUCAPE in the lower 1 KM to work with. Unseasonably warm daytime highs will range from the mid 70s to near 80 degrees Saturday-Monday. Monday gets breezy as the next big wave of low pressure lifts out of the Plains and drives a cold front our direction. Pops spike along its passage Monday night. The broader long wave trof appears positively tilted with best convective chances breaking north (closer to the low) and south (where better instability exists). PW's pop toward the 90th percentile at 1.25", and WPC paints the northern reaches of the FA under a MRGNL risk for excessive rainfall. Brisk winds continue with fropa Monday night-Tuesday, and the upper long wave trof's passage soon follows. That'll lead to a cooler/drier air mass replacement with a mid week cooldown closer to seasonal norms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 VFR conditions prevail as sfc high pressures remains in control across the south. Mainly clear skies give way to scattered high-level clouds early Friday morning. SW winds between 5-10 kts turn light & variable tonight with the loss of diurnal heating. Friday will be a bit more breezy due to better mixing. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DW DISCUSSION... AVIATION...DW Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/kentucky/ABUS30.KSDF ] Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/kentucky/AWUS43.KLMK ] Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/kentucky/AWUS43.KJKL ] Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky |