University of Kentucky Agricultural Weather Center Serving Kentucky residents	On the World Wide Web at: http://wwwagwx.ca.uky.edu/

991 
FXUS63 KPAH 250839
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
339 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A week ending warmup will see daily storm chances through the
  weekend into early next week. The best chances will be late
  Friday into Friday night, and late Sunday through Monday.

- Gusty winds 30-40 mph are possible Friday through the weekend.

- Temperatures will run about 10 to 15 degrees above normal over
  the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A surface low is expected to develop and shift into the central 
Plains today into tonight as a surface ridge drifts gradually to the 
northeast of the Quad State. The pressure gradient between the two 
will cause wind speeds to increase from the south. Flow off the Gulf 
will allow for moisture return along with increasing chances for 
showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon into tonight as 
isentropic upglide increases ahead of a warm front and on solid 
moisture transport. Instability is expected to be minimal, so the 
chances for thunder is expected to be fairly low through tonight. 

A little better chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive 
Friday into Friday night. Showers and storms are expected to develop 
across the Plains and then shift eastward across Missouri Friday 
afternoon and evening before reaching the Quad State area Friday 
night. The convection looks like it would race well out ahead of the 
forcing/frontal boundary, which would tend to support a weakening 
trend as it reaches the Quad State area. In fact, model guidance 
depicts this with Q-conv dropping quickly as the showers/storms 
reach into southeast MO and actually produces only minor amounts of 
precipitation. Instability is fairly low across the Quad State, 
except for a small portion of SEMO. Still not that great though, 
models painting out a few hundred J/kg. The western quarter of the 
CWA (portions of SEMO/southern IL) are still in a marginal risk for 
severe with general thunder for the rest of the area. The main 
threat would be damaging wind before the storms diminish east of the 
Mississippi River. Again, not a great possibility of storms 
remaining strong/severe or even holding together as they push into 
our CWA from the west Friday night.

The next in the series of low pressure systems will develop over the 
central Plains on Saturday, then lift northeastward toward the 
western Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday night. The westward track is 
still favored with the latest guidance. As the low shifts, a frontal 
boundary is expected to pass through the Quad State Sunday night 
into Monday. Along and ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms 
are expected to become widespread as a line of storms traverse the 
area. Shear and instability may be enough to lead to an increased 
risk for severe storms Sunday night; however, instability doesn't 
look overly impressive at this time, but details will need to be 
ironed out over the next day or two. Western portions of the Quad 
State are outlooked for severe thunderstorm potential Sunday night. 
Again, current thinking is a damaging wind risk, but details are a 
little murky at this time. In addition, heavy downpours will be 
likely with PWAT values around 1.5 inches, which is around 200% of 
normal. The line should be moving along, so overall flooding threat 
may be mitigated. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 80s for 
much of the area!

Model guidance diverges to some extent for Tuesday into Wednesday 
of next week, but there are some indications that a frontal boundary 
may drop into the area during that time period, keeping a chance for 
showers in storms in place. The upper-level pattern has flip-flopped 
over the past couple runs between ridging to zonal to even a trough 
pushing through the area. At this point, will stick with a blend of 
guidance for that time period with temperatures running above 
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions expected, with increasing high/mid clouds during
the afternoon and evening hours. Chances of showers will 
approach from the southwest late in the TAF period, and included
PROB30 at KCGI/KPAH after 02z. North to northeast winds at 
5-10kts will become east to southeast by 10z-14z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...RST

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky