University of Kentucky Agricultural Weather Center Serving Kentucky residents	On the World Wide Web at: http://wwwagwx.ca.uky.edu/

023 
FXUS63 KLMK 260540
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
140 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   A few rain showers are possible on Friday, with light 
    precipitation totals (less than 0.10") generally expected. A 
    stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon.

*   Warm and breezy this weekend, with gusts exceeding 30 mph out of 
    the southwest at times.

*   Rain chances return early next week, but above normal 
    temperatures persist.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A quiet evening continues across the region, with little more than 
high clouds to speak of at the moment. Light radar returns are 
showing up across far W Kentucky currently as the low level jet 
slowly ramps up in association with a warm front. These returns will 
slowly work over our SW CWA through the overnight, but given the dry 
low level in place ( BWG 22 degree T/Td spread at 9 PM EDT) it is 
going to take a while to saturate the column. Also seeing a very 
slow uptick in the LLJ over our area in the model data, adding 
confidence that measurable precipitation will be hard to come by 
until the 09-15z window. From there, light precipitation chances 
work NE through the day. Current forecast has this handled, and 
don't see a need to change anything at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Quiet weather continues across the region this afternoon with mostly 
sunny skies present across much of the Ohio Valley. Latest visible 
satellite imagery shows convective debris cirrus streaming across 
southwestern IN and western KY, with this area of high clouds 
expected to gradually push eastward later this afternoon as 
convection continues across the central Plains. Surface high 
pressure currently located over southern Ontario continues to allow 
dry northeast low-level flow into central KY and southern IN, and 
this has also resulted in a fairly noticeable north-south gradient 
in temperatures this afternoon. As we head toward sunset tonight, 
expected increasingly filtered sunshine, especially west of I-65, 
with dry and quiet weather continuing through the evening hours.

Tonight, dry weather is expected to continue across much of the 
area, with the sfc-850 mb layer remaining fairly dry below 
increasing mid-level moisture. Would expect skies to be clear enough 
and winds to remain light enough for another decent radiational 
cooling setup across portions of southern IN and the KY Bluegrass, 
though temperatures are generally expected to be warmer tonight 
compared to last night and this morning. By the pre-dawn hours 
Friday, a deeper fetch of moisture will start to enter southwestern 
portions of the CWA as a warm front begins to lift through the 
region. While initial radar returns will likely evaporate within the 
dry low-levels, a chance of showers is expected across the Pennyrile 
by around sunrise tomorrow.

Tomorrow, increased cloud cover and a few rain showers are expected 
as the aforementioned warm front lifts across the region. By no 
means will Friday be a washout, as precipitation chances should 
remain fairly confined to the zone of deepest moisture and 
isentropic lifting in the vicinity of the front. Temperatures will 
generally be warmer on Friday, with temporarily reduced temperatures 
expected in the vicinity of the front where there should be greater 
cloud cover. Highs tomorrow should be in the 70s in most locations, 
although a few 80 degree readings would be most likely across 
southern and SW Kentucky. Initially, precipitation chances should be 
forced by broad lifting along the warm front, though increased 
instability behind the warm front means that an isolated rumble of 
thunder cannot be ruled out tomorrow afternoon, though severe 
impacts are not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Friday Night through Sunday Night...

Warm front lifting northward will take most of its precip solidly 
north of the Ohio River. Still some uncertainty in the timing and an 
outside chance that we see isolated convection to the south of the 
warm front. Therefore will hold on to a 20% chance, 

The balance of the weekend will be warm and breezy, with temps more 
in line with late May or early June. The main summer component that 
will be missing is humidity, as dewpoints stay in the mid/upper 50s. 
and a subsidence layer from 850-700mb will keep a lid on any 
convection. Tight pressure gradient will yield breezy conditions, 
with S-SW winds at a solid 15-20 mph with gusts around 30 mph each 
afternoon. 

Weakening cold front starts to advance from the Plains Sunday night, 
but will only bring a slight chance for showers and storms into 
areas west of I-65 in the pre-dawn hours of Monday. 

Monday through Wednesday...

Early next week, the pattern will deamplify as the deep upper low 
over the Plains lifts into Canada and the southeastern CONUS ridging 
starts to break down. This will allow a cold front to drop SE into 
the Ohio Valley, brining a good chance for showers with a few 
embedded thunderstorms. Weak lapse rates and weakening shear will 
work against severe potential, and organized convection in general. 
Tue/Wed won't be quite as warm as this weekend, but still above 
normal for late April. Model consensus still yields rain chances 
throughout the period, but expect that to come into better focus as 
we get closer in time. The best chance for a dry day still appears 
to be Tuesday, and even if it does rain each day it should not be a 
washout.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions are set to continue for the forecast period. A warm 
front will bring lowering ceilings and VCSH to all terminals later 
today. Some virga near BWG is possible prior to sunrise, but better 
light rain chances arrive around sunrise. SDF and LEX will have 
precip mention later into the afternoon hours. Ceilings will remain 
VFR, though southeasterly winds increase for the afternoon, with 
gusts up to 20kts possible. In the extended forecast for SDF, did 
include mention of LLWS tonight as a LLJ spreads over the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...CJP

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky