University of Kentucky Agricultural Weather Center Serving Kentucky residents	On the World Wide Web at: http://wwwagwx.ca.uky.edu/

394 
FXUS61 KRLX 190627
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
227 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Passing cold front brings showers and storms through late this 
afternoon or evening. Cooler and drier this weekend, the slowly
warming into mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 223 AM Friday...

Key Points:

 * Wet with near normal temperatures today.
 * Showers and storms arrive from the west this morning.
 * Some storms may become severe mainly south this afternoon.  
 * Cannot ruled out isolated instance of flash flooding mainly south. 

At the surface, a low pressure center moves northeast across OH, 
and an extending cold front arrives to the Middle OH valley 
first this in the morning. At the mid-upper levels, a shortwave 
in a semi-zonal flow, moves across the aforementioned system, 
providing upper level support. The environment shows strong 
moisture advection under deep southwest flow, with PWATs 
increasing near 1.5 inches, CAPE around 1,800 J/Kg, and deep 
layer shear about 30 to 40 knots. These ingredients could 
support scattered showers and few thunderstorms ahead of the 
front today. Guidance suggests up to half an inch of QPF is 
expected across the area. Although ingredients look marginal for
severe, thunderstorms may become particularly strong across the
southeast portions of the area where SPC maintains a marginal 
risk for severe thunderstorms. Although not widespread flooding 
is expected, cannot ruled out isolated instance of flash 
flooding with the heavier storms, mainly across the southern 
portions of WV and southwest VA into this afternoon. 

Showers will persist along the mountains tonight before exiting east
of the Appalachians before midnight. Meanwhile, clearing will spread
from west to east behind the front across the lowlands, reaching the
mountains after midnight. This could produce areas of dense fog over 
areas that received rain overnight tonight. 

Gusty southwest winds shift northwest behind the front, bringing 
much fresh air. Expect near normal afternoon temperatures with highs 
around 70 degrees across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 50s 
higher elevations. Near normal lows for tonight, generally in the 
mid to lower 40s lowlands, ranging into the mid 30s higher 
elevations. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Friday...

Quiet conditions are expected through the weekend as surface high 
pressure slowly spreads east across the middle of the country whilst 
Canadian Arctic high pressure largely respects the longest 
undefended border.

Dry conditions with dew points near to below the freezing mark may 
yield some patchy frost across the north Sunday morning with some 
more extensive frost possible Monday morning as well

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 AM Friday...

High pressure shifts off to the east Monday putting the region back 
into southwesterly flow Tuesday ahead of an approaching northern 
stream low slated to arrive in the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday night. 
This should yield a brief return to mild conditions with daytime 
highs across the lower elevations in the upper 60s to lower 70s amid 
a modest uptick in precipitable water to around 3/4 of an inch. A 
cold front associated with the aforementioned low will drag across 
the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning yielding around a 
third of an inch of rainfall averaged across the basin. Instability 
looks rather meager, and coupled with overnight timing will cap any 
chances for convection at slight.

Cooler northwesterly flow over Lake Erie in the wake of cold frontal 
passage Wednesday likely yields at least some lake enhanced moisture 
plume feeding into the region during the day with fairly steep low 
level lapse rates through 5000 ft. Could see some low topped showers 
with this activity at least through Wednesday afternoon.

Cool and dry air settles in Wednesday night with some additional
frost potential for Thursday morning.

The balance of the work week appears quiet with the next chance for 
precipitation looming for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Friday...

Widespread VFR conditions are expected overnight ahead of an 
approaching cold front. Clouds will increase in coverage, 
lowering to 5-6kft by 12Z when the front arrives to the Mid OH 
valley. Conditions will remain VFR despite of light rain showers
across the western terminals during the morning hours. However,
a thunderstorm or two may pass by, producing brief periods of 
MVFR/IFR conditions and strong gusty winds along their path. 

The cold front crosses during the afternoon producing a wind shift from
southwest to northeast at PKB, HTS and CRW around 18Z, and CKB, EKN and
BKW by 20Z. 

Ceilings will lower to MVFR across the mountains along and behind FROPA, 
perhaps persisting through midnight. Drier conditions and even clearing 
may spread from west to east behind the FROPA with widespread VFR conditions
prevailing across the western terminals this afternoon and evening.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions
may vary from forecast. 




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 04/19/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR is expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...ARJ

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky