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859 
FXUS61 KILN 270139
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
939 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
As surface high pressure moves off the east coast, a warm front
will move into the Ohio Valley tonight. Rain is expected for
some locations tonight, with a warming trend heading into the 
weekend, and generally dry conditions. The chances for showers
and storms will increase next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Surface high pressure over New England is continuing to move 
east, as a mid-level ridge axis moves eastward into the Ohio 
Valley. The boundary layer has begun to moisten, with dewpoints 
rising in to the 50s across much of the ILN CWA now. However,
low level RH values remain fairly low. This will make 
precipitation somewhat of a challenge tonight, as both boundary 
layer and deep-layer saturation are rather marginal. The trend 
toward sparse coverage of measurable precipitation has continued
to be evident on recent model runs. PoPs will be  mainly in the
20-40 percent range tonight. There are some CAM indications of 
another area of showers or even weak convection making it into 
the northwestern ILN CWA after 06Z, so this will be accounted 
for in the grids as well. By morning, the southern and 
southeastern sections of the forecast area are most likely to be
dry.

With southerly winds staying in place overnight, temperatures
will remain mild, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
By 12Z Saturday, the entire ILN forecast area will be solidly in
the warm sector, with an increasing pressure gradient and
deeper boundary layer mixing helping to bring wind gusts into
the 25-35 MPH range. This warm advection pattern will also make
for a warm day, with highs in the middle to upper 70s.

With no real discernible surface or mid-level features over the
ILN area, forcing will be very limited on Saturday, so
precipitation chances are low. Any isolated activity would be
more likely to develop closer to the stronger southwesterly
mid-level flow, so perhaps in the far northwestern ILN CWA near
diurnal timing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Continued ridging in place over the region at the start of the 
period, with strong southerly flow into the Ohio Valley for 
Sunday. Temperatures push into the low/mid 80s with partly 
cloudy skies. Ample moisture will be present (given this time of
year) but with Tds in the upper 50s, it shouldn't feel too 
muggy out. Outside chance for an afternoon diurnally driven 
popup storm but no real forcing for ascent present, so left PoPs
dry for the time being. Sunday night remains dry, with lows in 
the mid 60s. 

By Monday, we'll finally have a bit of a pattern shift as an 
upper level shortwave near the N. Dakota/ Minnesota border 
swings through the larger flow, nudging the ridge east out of 
our area. At the surface, a low pressure moves through the 
western Great Lakes, dragging a relatively weak cold front 
through our region. Showers with some embedded thunder arrive 
Monday evening through Tuesday, decreasing in coverage by 
Tuesday afternoon. Highs on Tuesday a tad cooler, in the 
mid/upper 70s. Otherwise, temps/Tds rebound quickly as another 
shortwave rides along the heels of the first.

This pattern results in a more zonal upper level structure, 
with repeated shortwaves moving through the flow. Therefore kept
at least chance precip in the grids off and on through the 
remainder of the working week, despite lack of consensus on 
exact path of the waves. 

There does seem to be a decent signal in above average 
temperatures through the week, with highs nearing 80 most days, 
about 10 degrees F above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
While VFR is expected to persist, aviation will be affected by
wind shear of 40 to 45 knots and surface gusts over 20 knots 
ahead of low pressure to the west. Though isolated showers
forming near a warm front may not directly impacts airports, 
VCSH are forecast for DAY LCK and CMH. Otherwise we can expect 
mid level ceilings that will dissipate on Saturday as the warm 
front moves north. Winds should subside near the end of the 
forecast period as the pressure gradient in the warm sector 
relaxes.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times on Monday,
Tuesday, and Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Coniglio

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky