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Here are the local conditions for central Kentucky and Lexington...



200 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018
...CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
MT STERLING*   PTSUNNY   79  66  65 SW10      29.77F                  
FLEMING/MASON*   N/A     83  65  54 SW7       29.75F                  
DANVILLE*      CLOUDY    77  64  65 S10G16    29.78F                  
LEXINGTON      PTSUNNY   77  69  76 SW14      29.76F                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  70; 6HR MAX TEMP:  80; 6HR PCP:  0.03;                

FRANKFORT      PTSUNNY   73  66  78 S7        29.73F                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  67; 6HR MAX TEMP:  79;                                

LOUISVILLE     CLOUDY    75  69  81 S12       29.69F                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  69; 6HR MAX TEMP:  77; 6HR PCP:  0.17;                

LEBANON*       MOCLDY    73  68  83 S8        29.75F                  
GLASGOW*       PTSUNNY   80  64  56 S14G22    29.73F                  
BOWLING GREEN    N/A     83  67  58 SW21G32   29.71F                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  70; 6HR MAX TEMP:  83; 6HR PCP: TRACE;                


Here are the regional conditions...Here.


..Stability Indices, ..Severe weather right now!, NWS Severe Desktop

UKAWC Stability Indices:
Lifted Index (LI) K-Index Cape CIN Showalter Index SWEAT Total Totals All

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Kentucky


Based on observations at 200pm EDT, Friday June 22, 2018

Across Kentucky...temperatures are near 80 degrees west, near 77 degrees central, and near 79 degrees east. Current sky conditions are fair west, partly sunny central, and partly sunny east. In the west, relative humidity is near 59%, and the dew point is near 65 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 76%, and the dew point is near 69 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 62%, and the dew point is near 65 degrees. Current drying conditions are fair west, fair central, and fair east. The livestock heat stress category is no stress west, no stress central, and no stress east. Winds are from the southwest at 20 mph west, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Winds are from the southwest at 14 mph central, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Winds are variable at 3 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 83 degrees at London and Bowling Green. The lowest temperature is 72 degrees at Covington.

All KY Obs., All Obs
The Past Weather Observations Graghics (MesoWest/NWS):
12 hr 24 hr 36 hr 2 day 3 day 7 Day 14 day 28 day

Updated Friday, June 22, 2018

...Storms Expected Into The Weekend...

An upper level low pressure system will move overhead today. An associated surface cold front will push in from the west and bring another round of thunderstorms to the region this afternoon and evening. Many places could pick up a half to one inch of rainfall with some locally higher amounts. A look ahead shows continued unsettled weather for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

Another weather system should bring isolated thunderstorms to most of the commonwealth Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional storms are expected late Saturday night and Sunday.

Kentucky State Forecast

Western KY:
Central KY:
Eastern KY:

Specific and detailed farm-by-farm weather forecast information is available in your Point Ag Forecast. New County Ag Weather Page, Current Conditions:Kentucky
, U.S.

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598 
FXUS63 KLMK 221729
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
129 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Had some clouds form in the area ahead of the precip shield coming 
in from the west, so that is good news as far as severe potential 
going down some for today. Still just had a cell in Crawford county, 
closer to the surface low center, that formed a quick rotation on 
radar. Given stable low-level airmass, that likely remained above 
the surface. Will be watching over the next few hours for any 
stronger cells that could get some downdrafts to break through any 
stable layers. Otherwise, have updated the forecast to match current 
radar/satellite/obs trends.

Issued at 850 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Large mature low pressure system spinning over southern IL about to 
move into the Wabash area. Dry slot on the southeast side of this 
system is bringing sunshine from the I-65 to the I-75 corridor this 
morning. Clouds and rains are moving into our western counties now, 
with some lightning in a cell between Evansville and Owensboro. 
Expect more coverage of lightning to increase as we get these cells 
to move into a little more unstable air. 

Based on that heated area and the storms coming in, would not be 
surprised to see a few stronger storms pop up initially around 
lunchtime in that heated corridor between interstates. By mid 
afternoon think the threat for any stronger storms should get into 
our eastern and southeastern areas, the I-75 corridor down to our 
Lake Cumberland counties. Latest HREF hints at some stronger updraft 
helicity in that area in that time frame too, so cannot rule out an 
isolated tornado there...in area where SPC had the 2% tornado 
probability.

&&

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Early morning satellite imagery and observations reveal partly to 
mostly cloudy skies across the area with some clear spots here and 
there.  Still have some lingering convection across south-central KY 
that will continue to move on off to the east and affect mainly the 
I-75 corridor over the next hour or so.  Temperatures were generally 
in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.  For the remainder of the 
overnight, we expect generally partly cloudy conditions to continue 
with lows a few degrees cooler than current temps.

For Today, anomalous upper level low located just north of St. Louis 
is expected to translate eastward into central Indiana.  Trailing 
cold front behind the system is expected to slice through the region 
from west to east.  Latest CAMS guidance suggests that we'll see an 
uptick in convective development early this morning across southern 
IL/W KY with this activity developing further east toward the I-65 
corridor by late morning.  By the afternoon, some clearing and 
destabilization looks to occur in areas along and east of I-65. 
Convection should continue to develop and increase in coverage 
through the afternoon hours.  Some strong storms are possible given 
that we'll have some anomalously high mid-level flow across our 
region.  Atmospheric parameters would suggest damaging winds as the 
main weather hazard today.  Some hail reports would not be out of 
the question given the lower freezing levels.  Overall shear profile 
is impressive (speed-wise) across southern KY...especially SE KY and 
into the southern Apps.  It's possible that we could see some 
supercelluar type structures down that way, but as previous 
forecaster mentioned, the low-level flow doesn't look to back enough 
to produce a big threat.  Much of the area is in a marginal risk 
with a slight risk just to our southeast.  If more sufficient 
destabilization occurs this afternoon than currently forecast, a 
slight risk expansion into central KY would be justified.

Highs this afternoon look to top out in the upper 70s to the lower 
80s across southern IN and northern KY.  Mainly lower 80s are 
expected across central and southern KY.

For tonight, convection should weekend pretty rapidly toward sunset 
with the loss of heating and ample dynamical support shifting north 
and northeast of here.  Probably will see some scattered convection 
linger into the late evening with drier conditions taking place by 
midnight. Overnight lows look to cool into the mid-upper 60s.

.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

By Saturday morning, the anomalous upper level low that has brought 
numerous rounds of showers and storms will begin to depart the Ohio 
Valley. In its wake, 500mb flow transitions to a quasi-zonal 
pattern, and embedded waves within the flow will lead to increased 
cloud cover and precipitation chances starting late Saturday and 
continuing through all of Sunday. 

A very weak "cold" front moves toward the KY/TN line by Monday 
morning, and some slightly drier air moves in behind it. There is 
some model discrepancy with how far south the cold front dives, and 
should it stall over parts of central KY, Monday could end up being 
cloudy and potentially wet. Even if the front works its way into TN 
Monday morning, temperatures behind the front Monday are still 
looking to be around or even slightly above climatological norms for 
this time of year. Temperatures will continue to warm Tuesday as 
upper level ridging builds in over the eastern third of the CONUS, 
but a shortwave is progged to swing through on Wednesday and bring 
some showers and storms that might allow a brief break from the 
heat. 

Beyond Wednesday, upper level ridging looks to re-establish itself 
across the region per the GFS/ECMWF to set up a hot and muggy end to 
the week. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with the upper level 
ridge and associated heat, and shows some potential triple digit 
high temperatures as the core of the 500mb ridge settles nearly on 
top of the lower Ohio Valley. Think the ECMWF solution is a bit out 
to lunch with the heat, but the overall pattern from most long range 
models (with the exception of the Canadian) supports above normal 
temperatures through the end the month.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Low pressure system over the Wabash continuing to bring showers and 
storms to the region this afternoon. Should see coverage die off 
with sunset, but cannot rule out an isolated shower this evening. As 
system moves northeast we should see some lower ceilings rotate 
around it late tonight, bringing restrictions to SDF/LEX/HNB by 
daybreak Saturday. Though lower ceilings should be slow to lift 
through the morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...RJS
Short Term...MJ
Long Term....DM
Aviation...RJS


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5 day rainfall totals,

And here's the UK Ag, Lawn and Garden Forecast...


And here's the Central Kentucky Forecast...

Fri Jun 22 11:05:15 EDT 2018

Fayette-
Including the city of Lexington
1105 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.REST OF TODAY...Partly cloudy. Numerous showers and scattered 
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. South 
winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms and
isolated showers. Lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds 5 to
10 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds 10 to
15 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds
5 to 10 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds 5 to
10 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs around 90. 


And the Medium- and long-Range Outlook for Kentucky...


                             KENTUCKY                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                JUN 27-JUL 1 JUN 29-JUL 5    JUL       JUL-SEP                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above     Normal     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy

Click here for the extended outlook across the Commonwealth.


All GFS Forecast Maps