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Here are the local conditions for central Kentucky and Lexington...

600 PM EST WED FEB 21 2018
LEXINGTON      CLOUDY    52  49  89 N14       30.38R                  
COVINGTON      LGT RAIN  45  45 100 N14       30.44R                  
FRANKFORT      LGT RAIN  50  46  86 N6        30.41R FOG              

Here are the regional conditions...Here.

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Lifted Index (LI) K-Index Cape CIN Showalter Index SWEAT Total Totals All

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Kentucky

Based on observations at 600pm EST, Wednesday February 21, 2018

Across Kentucky...temperatures are near 39 degrees west, near 52 degrees central, and near 60 degrees east. Current sky conditions are light rain west, cloudy central, and mostly cloudy east. In the west, relative humidity is near 89%, and the dew point is near 36 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 89%, and the dew point is near 49 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 92%, and the dew point is near 58 degrees. Current drying conditions are poor west, poor central, and poor east. There is patchy fog west. Winds are from the north at 10 mph west, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to light rain. The wind chill is near 32 degrees west. Winds are from the north at 14 mph central, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Winds are from the northeast at 3 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category west, no stress category central, and no stress category east. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 61 degrees at Somerset and London. The lowest temperature is 39 degrees at Paducah.

All KY Obs., All Obs
The Past Weather Observations Graghics (MesoWest/NWS):
12 hr 24 hr 36 hr 2 day 3 day 7 Day 14 day 28 day

Updated Wednesday Evening, February 21, 2018

...Very Wet Wednesday through the Weekend ...

Combined with today's rainfall, looking at the potential for 3 to 6+ inches of rainfall through the weekend. In fact, widespread showers is in the forecast each day. The highest totals are expected across Western and Central Kentucky and the lowest across Southeastern Kentucky. This will be on top of already saturated grounds. The state has averaged over 4 inches through February so far. Average rainfall for the month is 3.68. Based on preliminary data with the UK Ag Weather Center, the additional rainfall looks to push Kentucky close, if not into, the top 10 wettest February's on record for the state.

This will likely result in more flooding across the area. A Flood Watch has been issued for much of the western half of Kentucky and into the Bluegrass.

For livestock producers, now is time to make sure livestock are out of low lying locations.

For drivers, if water is crossing the roadway, turn around. Two feet of water can move a car. It is also possible the road has been washed out.

Kentucky Weather Forecast

Western KY:
Central KY:
Eastern KY:

Specific and detailed farm-by-farm weather forecast information is available in your Point Ag Forecast. New County Ag Weather Page, Current Conditions:Kentucky
, U.S.

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FXUS63 KLMK 212102

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
402 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

...Updated Hydro Section...



Early this afternoon, a surface cold front was draped from Middle 
Tennessee up into eastern Kentucky. Now that the leading rain band 
has cleared the CWA and weakened somewhat, shower activity is fairly 
scattered east of I-65. The deep moisture axis still runs from 
Little Rock up through Bloomington. With just weak forcing, showers 
across central KY and southern IN will remain fairly light this 

Tonight, however, a shortwave impulse will swing northeast from the 
Lower Mississippi Valley. In addition, the area will remain within 
the right entrance region of a substantial upper jet over the Upper 
Midwest and Great Lakes. A 40-50 kt southerly LLJ punches in from 
Tennessee, resulting in strong isentropic lift especially along the 
axis of the Ohio River. A wave of moderate to heavy rainfall is 
likely, and rainfall amounts should exceed 1 inch near and west of a 
Russellville to Louisville line through 7 AM Thu. Lows tonight will 
generally be in the 40s, with some 50s possible in the far southeast 
closer to the surface boundary.

On Thursday, showers with tonight's wave will gradually slide south 
into central/southern KY. Moderate rainfall looks likely south 
of the WK/BG parkways. High temperatures will generally be in the 
50s though there could be some 60s in the south as that surface 
trough to our southeast potentially drifts back to the north a bit.

It looks like we may see a relative lull in rainfall Thursday 
evening into the first part of the night. However, a persistent 
stream of moisture will continue into the Ohio Valley. Another wave 
of low pressure moving northeast will reinvigorate moderate showers 
and perhaps isolated storms along the quasi-stationary boundary late 
Thu night/early Friday, mainly north of the Ohio River.


.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

On Friday, the heavy rain potential looks to remain mainly along and 
north of the Ohio River. That boundary draped further north will 
result in warmer high temps, particularly across central KY. Highs 
should end up in the 70s for those areas. 

Friday night into Saturday morning, a low pressure system will 
deepen over the High Plains. One more warm frontal boundary lifts 
through the region, likely resulting in widespread showers with 
embedded thunder. Saturday looks like a warm day, even with showers. 
But we may briefly see precip scatter out quite a bit in the warm 

Then, a potent 500mb trough finally swings out of the Western U.S. 
and may close off over the Upper Midwest Saturday night. Central KY 
and southern Indiana will simultaneously be located underneath a 
coupled upper jet structure, and a very strong LLJ looks to develop. 
An occluding surface cyclone will also track northeast through the 
Upper Midwest and drag a strong cold front through the forecast area 
Saturday night into early Sunday. There is some severe weather risk 
with this frontal passage. Convection would most likely be low-
topped, in the form of a squall line. Damaging winds would be the 
main threat. There is also a substantial flooding threat of course, 
and will maintain the current Flood Watch. But given saturated soils 
and additional heavy rainfall, we may see more trees come down in 
the face of relatively less wind. 

An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall will be possible, with 
locally higher amounts, with the frontal passage through Sunday 
morning. It's at this point in the weekend that the risk for 
Moderate Flooding on the Ohio River ramps up as well. Widespread 
minor areal flooding would be possible as well, so may need to 
consider an eastward expansion to the Flood Watch at some point. 

Welcome high pressure will then move in to dry us out for the first 
part of the new week. The high will be of Pacific origin, as opposed 
to Canadian/Arctic, so mild temperatures will continue.


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1245 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

Currently, a cold front is extending through eastern Kentucky 
extending from the northeast to the southwest. There is a line of 
heavy rain at the front of this cold front and lighter rain behind 
the line stretching northwest across western and central Kentucky 
and southern Indiana. The TAF sites will likely experience a break 
in the rain during the afternoon. This break should only last a few 
hours before the rain builds in from the southwest this evening. 
Heavy rain tonight is expected. Ceilings at all TAF sites is 
expected to drop to IFR conditions. LIFR conditions are very likely. 
Winds will remain from the north to northeast.


Updated at 355 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

Minor flooding continues along the Ohio River at Tell City, 
Cannelton, and Louisville.

Synoptic models continue to advertise 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over 
the next four and a half days through Saturday night across much of 
the region. This range has been very consistent over the past few 
days. As with any convective, long term event, some locally higher 
amounts will be possible depending on where multiple axes of heavier 
precipitation develop. The most likely geographical area to get the 
most rain will be those locations west of I-65.   

This rainfall combined with already saturated soils will lead to 
excessive runoff through the period. This will result in flooding 
issues in the typical low-land and flood prone areas.  In addition, 
ongoing river flooding will become worse with time as the runoff 
makes its way into the rivers.

Current river forecasts that are out are based on forecasts that 
contain 72 hours of future rainfall.  Therefore, with the additional 
rainfall coming this weekend, these river forecasts will likely 
trend upward over the next few days.  Ensemble river forecasts show 
that some of our points will rise into the moderate flood range. It 
is important to note that there are some QPF forecasts that could 
push some of our points into major flood status.  Again, these 
forecasts are *highly dependent* on where the heavy rainfall 
actually develops.

Much of the following stage information comes from various ensemble 
model packages, and is likely to change as new data are ingested by 
those models. **Also remember that the rain that will be responsible 
for the rises on the rivers hasn't even fallen yet, so significant 
river stage forecast changes should be expected over the coming 

...Ohio River...

The river from Louisville to Tell City is forecast by ensemble 
modeling to reach moderate flood levels. Current model forecasts 
show that this could occur by late Friday afternoon at Tell City, 
Saturday morning at Cannelton, and early Sunday morning at 
Louisville. At least minor flooding is predicted at Clifty Creek, 
with moderate flooding possible.

...Green River and Rough River...

At Dundee, minor flooding is forecast by Friday with moderate 
flooding possible at Dundee by Saturday night.

At least minor flooding is expected at Woodbury Thursday night and 
Rochester Friday night. Munfordville and Alvaton will approach flood 
stage, but are not forecast to hit flood stage at this time.

...Rolling Fork River...

Boston may rise to moderate flood late this weekend, and there is a 
1 in 3 chance that it hits major flood stage.

...Kentucky River...

Minor flooding is forecast by ensemble models to begin at Lockport 
this weekend. Peaks Mill on Elkhorn Creek may reach moderate flood, 
but this is a smaller, flashier stream and is more difficult to 
predict very far in advance.

Given the consistent and consecutive heavy rainfall forecasts from 
the guidance, a Flood Watch is in effect for the northwestern 2/3rds 
of KY and all of southern Indiana for the duration of the overall 
event, through Saturday night.  

Residents of southern Indiana and central Kentucky should remain 
alert this week for flooding.  Stay tuned for the latest forecasts 
and updates through the week.


IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ076>079-083-084-

KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ023>043-045>049-



Short Term...EBW
Long Term...EBW

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5 day rainfall totals,

And here's the UK Ag, Lawn and Garden Forecast...

And here's the Central Kentucky Forecast...

Wed Feb 21 16:01:37 EST 2018

Including the city of Lexington
347 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018


.TONIGHT...Periods of showers. Lows in the mid 40s. Northeast
winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of showers near 100 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Periods of showers. Highs in the mid 50s. Northeast
winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of showers 90 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 50s.
Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of showers 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Showers. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of showers 80 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the upper 50s. Southwest winds
5 to 10 mph. Chance of showers 90 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Showers and chance of thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Highs in the upper 60s.
Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Lows in the lower
50s. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 60s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain
showers. Highs in the upper 50s. 

And the Medium- and long-Range Outlook for Kentucky...

                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                FEB 27-MAR 3  MAR 1-MAR 7    MAR       MAR-MAY                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above       Normal     Normal      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Above      Above                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy

Click here for the extended outlook across the Commonwealth.

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