Updated Friday, June 22, 2018
...Storms Expected Into The Weekend...
An upper level low pressure system will move overhead today. An associated
surface cold front will push in from the west and bring another round of
thunderstorms to the region this afternoon and evening. Many places could pick
up a half to one inch of rainfall with some locally higher amounts. A look ahead
shows continued unsettled weather for the remainder of the week and into the
Another weather system should bring isolated thunderstorms to most of the
commonwealth Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional storms are expected late
Saturday night and Sunday.
Kentucky State Forecast
Specific and detailed farm-by-farm weather forecast information is available in your Point Ag Forecast. New County Ag Weather Page,
Current Conditions:Kentucky, U.S.
The Current Surface Weather Map shows the following...
Click image to zoom...
|Today's Max Temps:
||Tonight's Min Temps:
||Ohio Valley Radar:
|Tomorrow's Max Temps:
||Next day's Min Temps:
||Today's Forecast Map:
||Tomorrow's Forecast Map:
||Dew point Temps:
||Cloud Forecast Map:
||Wind Forecast Map:
SPC Radar/Convective Outlook Map,
ECMWF Upper air,
Upper air soundings,
UK WRF maps
NCEP-Model Output Statistics (All Models):
UKAWC Stability Indices:
SFC Forecast map loop for 7 days... here.
UKAWC Stability Indices:
Why the surface weather map?
500 mb map
TWC Jetstream Maps
TWC Weather Trend maps
Day 2 Composite-Snow
All HPC Snow
NWS Forecast Maps (Click Here)
STOP! Write a brief synopsis now before completing the weather brief!
GFS 850 Loop,
GFS 500 Loop,
FXUS63 KLMK 221729
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
129 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018
Had some clouds form in the area ahead of the precip shield coming
in from the west, so that is good news as far as severe potential
going down some for today. Still just had a cell in Crawford county,
closer to the surface low center, that formed a quick rotation on
radar. Given stable low-level airmass, that likely remained above
the surface. Will be watching over the next few hours for any
stronger cells that could get some downdrafts to break through any
stable layers. Otherwise, have updated the forecast to match current
Issued at 850 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018
Large mature low pressure system spinning over southern IL about to
move into the Wabash area. Dry slot on the southeast side of this
system is bringing sunshine from the I-65 to the I-75 corridor this
morning. Clouds and rains are moving into our western counties now,
with some lightning in a cell between Evansville and Owensboro.
Expect more coverage of lightning to increase as we get these cells
to move into a little more unstable air.
Based on that heated area and the storms coming in, would not be
surprised to see a few stronger storms pop up initially around
lunchtime in that heated corridor between interstates. By mid
afternoon think the threat for any stronger storms should get into
our eastern and southeastern areas, the I-75 corridor down to our
Lake Cumberland counties. Latest HREF hints at some stronger updraft
helicity in that area in that time frame too, so cannot rule out an
isolated tornado there...in area where SPC had the 2% tornado
.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018
Early morning satellite imagery and observations reveal partly to
mostly cloudy skies across the area with some clear spots here and
there. Still have some lingering convection across south-central KY
that will continue to move on off to the east and affect mainly the
I-75 corridor over the next hour or so. Temperatures were generally
in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. For the remainder of the
overnight, we expect generally partly cloudy conditions to continue
with lows a few degrees cooler than current temps.
For Today, anomalous upper level low located just north of St. Louis
is expected to translate eastward into central Indiana. Trailing
cold front behind the system is expected to slice through the region
from west to east. Latest CAMS guidance suggests that we'll see an
uptick in convective development early this morning across southern
IL/W KY with this activity developing further east toward the I-65
corridor by late morning. By the afternoon, some clearing and
destabilization looks to occur in areas along and east of I-65.
Convection should continue to develop and increase in coverage
through the afternoon hours. Some strong storms are possible given
that we'll have some anomalously high mid-level flow across our
region. Atmospheric parameters would suggest damaging winds as the
main weather hazard today. Some hail reports would not be out of
the question given the lower freezing levels. Overall shear profile
is impressive (speed-wise) across southern KY...especially SE KY and
into the southern Apps. It's possible that we could see some
supercelluar type structures down that way, but as previous
forecaster mentioned, the low-level flow doesn't look to back enough
to produce a big threat. Much of the area is in a marginal risk
with a slight risk just to our southeast. If more sufficient
destabilization occurs this afternoon than currently forecast, a
slight risk expansion into central KY would be justified.
Highs this afternoon look to top out in the upper 70s to the lower
80s across southern IN and northern KY. Mainly lower 80s are
expected across central and southern KY.
For tonight, convection should weekend pretty rapidly toward sunset
with the loss of heating and ample dynamical support shifting north
and northeast of here. Probably will see some scattered convection
linger into the late evening with drier conditions taking place by
midnight. Overnight lows look to cool into the mid-upper 60s.
.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018
By Saturday morning, the anomalous upper level low that has brought
numerous rounds of showers and storms will begin to depart the Ohio
Valley. In its wake, 500mb flow transitions to a quasi-zonal
pattern, and embedded waves within the flow will lead to increased
cloud cover and precipitation chances starting late Saturday and
continuing through all of Sunday.
A very weak "cold" front moves toward the KY/TN line by Monday
morning, and some slightly drier air moves in behind it. There is
some model discrepancy with how far south the cold front dives, and
should it stall over parts of central KY, Monday could end up being
cloudy and potentially wet. Even if the front works its way into TN
Monday morning, temperatures behind the front Monday are still
looking to be around or even slightly above climatological norms for
this time of year. Temperatures will continue to warm Tuesday as
upper level ridging builds in over the eastern third of the CONUS,
but a shortwave is progged to swing through on Wednesday and bring
some showers and storms that might allow a brief break from the
Beyond Wednesday, upper level ridging looks to re-establish itself
across the region per the GFS/ECMWF to set up a hot and muggy end to
the week. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with the upper level
ridge and associated heat, and shows some potential triple digit
high temperatures as the core of the 500mb ridge settles nearly on
top of the lower Ohio Valley. Think the ECMWF solution is a bit out
to lunch with the heat, but the overall pattern from most long range
models (with the exception of the Canadian) supports above normal
temperatures through the end the month.
.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018
Low pressure system over the Wabash continuing to bring showers and
storms to the region this afternoon. Should see coverage die off
with sunset, but cannot rule out an isolated shower this evening. As
system moves northeast we should see some lower ceilings rotate
around it late tonight, bringing restrictions to SDF/LEX/HNB by
daybreak Saturday. Though lower ceilings should be slow to lift
through the morning.
NWS Discussions for: JKL,
All GFS Forecast Maps
Vertical Cross sections Maps
IR Sat loop
Why the 850 mb map
Why the 500 mb map, GFS 500 Loop,
The 500 mb upper air analysis and forecast maps......
The 700 mb upper air analysis and forecast maps......
The 850 mb upper air map......
, GFS 850 Loop,
All UCAR/RAP:GFS Forecast Maps
GFS 850 Loop,
GFS 500 Loop,
TWC Jet Stream,
SPC's Levels of Risk,
Evaluation of Stability,
7 day jet stream
The 1-day QPF map......& 5-day maps
5 day rainfall totals,
And here's the UK Ag, Lawn and Garden Forecast...
And here's the Central Kentucky Forecast...
Fri Jun 22 11:05:15 EDT 2018
Including the city of Lexington
1105 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018
.REST OF TODAY...Partly cloudy. Numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. South
winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms and
isolated showers. Lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds 5 to
10 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds 10 to
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds
5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds 5 to
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 70.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs around 90.
And the Medium- and long-Range Outlook for Kentucky...
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
JUN 27-JUL 1 JUN 29-JUL 5 JUL JUL-SEP
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Above Above Above Above
Precipitation: Above Above Normal Normal
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
Click here for
the extended outlook across the Commonwealth.
All GFS Forecast Maps