Fri Jul 20 12:31:06 EDT 2018 ... =-=-=-=-=-=->-=-=-=-=-=- What is UTC time? Click here to find out.... Mouseover to pause!......Kentucky Short-term forecast... Western KY ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING... .REST OF TODAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the morning, then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Central KY .TODAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Eastern KY .THIS AFTERNOON...Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent. Detailed forecast information is available in your Precision Ag Weather forecast here... -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Long-range outlooks here.
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Current Ag Weather Conditions

Based on observations at 1200pm EDT, Friday July 20, 2018

Across Kentucky...temperatures are near 85 degrees west, near 78 degrees central, and near 75 degrees east. Current sky conditions are fair west, fair central, and cloudy east. In the west, relative humidity is near 69%, and the dew point is near 74 degrees. The heat index is near 92 degrees west. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 71%, and the dew point is near 68 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 78%, and the dew point is near 68 degrees. Current drying conditions are fair west, fair central, and fair east. The livestock heat stress category is danger west, no stress central, and no stress east. Winds are from the southwest at 10 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southeast at 9 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are variable at 5 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 86 degrees at Hopkinsville and Bowling Green. The lowest temperature is 71 degrees at Covington.
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348 
ASUS43 KLMK 201610
RWRKY 
KENTUCKY REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1200 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

NOTE "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

KYZ001>023-026-027-061>063-070>075-201700-
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PADUCAH        FAIR      85  74  69 SW10      29.88S HX  92           
HENDERSON      CLOUDY    84  77  79 S10G17    29.86F HX  94           
OWENSBORO      CLOUDY    84  76  76 S14       29.86F HX  93           
HOPKINSVILLE   FAIR      86  75  70 S10       29.91F HX  95           
BOWLING GREEN  CLOUDY    86  72  62 SW12G22   29.95R HX  92           
GLASGOW        CLOUDY    85  70  61 SW14      29.95S                  
$$

KYZ024-025-028>034-038-045-046-053-201700-
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
LOUISVILLE/SDF CLOUDY    83  73  72 S12       29.89F                  
LOUISVILLE/LOU CLOUDY    84  75  74 S13       29.90F HX  92           
FORT KNOX      CLOUDY    83  73  69 S13       29.92S                  
$$

KYZ035>037-039>044-047>052-055>060-089>105-201700-
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
LEXINGTON      FAIR      78  68  71 SE9       29.97F                  
COVINGTON      CLOUDY    71  68  90 S13       29.91F                  
FRANKFORT      PTSUNNY   78  71  79 SE8       29.93F                  
$$

KYZ054-064>069-076>088-106>120-201700-
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
JACKSON        CLOUDY    75  68  78 VRB5      30.05R                  
LONDON         FAIR      83  69  62 S8G18     30.01F                  
SOMERSET       FAIR      84  66  54 SW15      30.00S                  
MIDDLESBORO    FAIR      83  67  58 S8        30.03F                  
MONTICELLO     FAIR      85  70  60 SE8       30.00S                  
$$

  





Mouseover to pause!...... -=-=-=-=-=-=-Severe Weather Safety Tips Click Here-=-=-=-=-=- Detailed forecast information is available in your Precision Ag Weather forecast here... -=-=-=-=-=-=-Severe Weather Safety Tips Here-=-=-=-=-=- Long-range outlooks here. =-=-=-=-

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For the forecasted weather conditions in Kentucky this coming week, click here.
Kentucky Short-Term Summary



Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KLMK ]

 


Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KJKL ]

 


Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KPAH ]

 

LMK

	

591 
FXUS63 KLMK 201537
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1137 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1130 AM EDT Thu Jul 19 2018

No substantial changes to the SVR potential for late this afternoon 
and evening. Temps are currently being held back by low cloud cover, 
but the flipside is that shallow mixing keeps the dewpoints high and 
the LCLs low.  

Multiple rounds of storms are possible this afternoon and evening. 
An effective boundary is oriented NE-SW and clips the Hoosier 
National Forest, but we have only seen one isolated cell now in 
Orange County. Isolated storms are possible through early afternoon, 
and could become severe. 

Greater severe potential would begin roughly 21Z-00Z, mainly near 
the I-64 corridor, with the threat pushing south as the evening 
progresses. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat, but very 
steep mid-level lapse rates will support golfball to baseball size 
hail in the strongest storms, and if the LCLs remain low the tornado 
threat becomes more concerning.

&&

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...Severe Weather Expected Today, Potentially Significant...

Morning...

Before we get to the severe threat later today, wanted to address 
the current and expected convection later this morning. Seeing 
isolated to scattered showers and a few storms develop in 
association with a warm advection wing rotating through the area. 
This convection should continue to push east this morning and should 
grow in coverage/intensity across SE Indiana and in the Bluegrass 
region of east central Kentucky. They are already east of the 
analyzed warm front over western KY and should be elevated in 
nature. These should mainly pose a lightning, brief heavy rain, and 
hail threat. Suppose a few marginally severe hail stones or some 40 
mph winds could be possible, but think the storms will largely stay 
sub-severe this morning. 

Instability & Forcing...

Most of the global and hi-res models seem to generally agree that 
this convection moves off to the east later this morning and strong 
heating/destabilization then occurs through midday into the 
afternoon. During this time, expect a relative lull in 
precipitation/convective activity. Do think convection could get 
going again pretty early in the afternoon to our north where better 
forcing will interact with the available instability. However down 
across southern IN and KY the better forcing doesn't arrive until 
late afternoon and evening with the exit region of the mid/upper 
impulse and convergence along the expected cold front. This is 
expected to allow for strong/very strong instability to develop 
given temps in the upper 80s and dew points in the lower (to 
possibly mid 70s across our far west). The low level heat/moisture 
will be overrun by steepening mid level lapse rates, creating some 
very impressive thermal profiles and "fat" CAPE soundings. Some 
models estimate SB CAPE values pushing up into the 5000-6000 J/KG 
range across our far west later today. Prefer to rely more on ML 
CAPE values which should still be around 3000-4000 J/KG and 
considered strongly unstable. Given the potential for initial 
supercell storm modes and the expected instability, the Moderate 
risk is actually for the very large hail (>2") potential.

Shear, Storm Mode/Evolution, & Timing...

From a shear standpoint, data continues to suggest some impressive 
values for this time of year as the strong mid level impulse 
contributes to 0-6 km shear values between 40-60 knots across the 
Moderate risk area over our western half of the CWA. It is 
interesting to note that the best LLJ response will be displaced to 
the NE over central IN and northern OH this evening, however enough 
of a response should still occur over our area (20-30 knots) to 
yield a nice veering/increasing wind profile for supercell 
development with initial storm mode. Best shear profiles should line 
up over or NW CWA where any early supercell should carry the 
greatest tornado threat. This is also where the best low level 
moisture, lowest LCL's, and strongest instability axis will reside 
for a short window before mode likely tries to transition to bowing 
segments and perhaps a more large scale wind producer. Do expect 
that the tornado probs across our west and especially NW CWA may 
need to be increased if above scenario plays out as expected. Window 
for supercellular tornadoes could be short, but also could last into 
the late evening if storms stay more discrete. IN SUMMARY: storm 
mode and evolution still have some questions, but think initial 
supercells with a hail and isolated tornado threat should transition 
to more of a wind threat as we move later into the evening. Best 
timing for severe is expected between 4 PM - Midnight EDT.

Flooding Threat Low...

Overall, think the flooding threat is relatively low given the 
expected progressive nature of the storms. However, repeated rounds 
of storms could occur with morning and afternoon/evening convection 
so can't rule out a few localized problems. 

Rest of Friday Night...

Severe threat should be ending around midnight with a relatively 
quiet rest of the overnight. Look for lows on either side of 70.

.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Saturday through Monday Night...

At the beginning of the period, a closed upper level low over the 
southern Great Lakes will slowly drop southward into the Ohio 
Valley.  This upper level low will transit through our region 
Saturday through Monday before dropping into the southern Gulf coast 
states by early Tuesday.  With the upper level low transversing 
across our region, unsettled weather is expected this weekend and 
into early next week.  Plenty of clouds with an uptick in diurnally 
driven convection looks very likely.  Thus, this issuance of the 
forecast will continue to feature high chance PoPs through the 
period.  Temperatures will be below normal this weekend. Highs 
Saturday will likely only top out in the low-mid 80s.  Some sections 
of the northern Bluegrass may only top out in the upper 70s.  Expect 
cool conditions to continue on Sunday with highs in the mid-upper 
70s across much of the region, though the far southwest sections of 
our CWA could squeak out an 80 degree reading.  Upper 70s and lower 
80s will be common on Monday as well.  Lows through the period will 
generally average in the middle 60s. 

Tuesday through Thursday...

Overall western hemispheric set up for the long term period next 
week will feature a large positive height anomaly over the central 
Atlantic with another positive height anomaly over the southwestern 
US.  Through the period, the global models want to attempt to 
amplify both of these features.  With the current projected wave 
spacing, we'll see a persistent trough axis centered over the 
eastern United States.  The trough axis may be far enough to our 
east that we should see a return of typical late July conditions 
beginning Tuesday and continuing through the remainder of the week. 
Depending on the upper trough axis positioning, we expect that a 
gradient of temperatures will be seen across the Ohio Valley.  A 
slightly cooler and unsettled weather pattern may win out over the 
eastern Ohio Valley, while a bit warmer/drier pattern may be found 
out west of the Pennyrile region and into the Mid-Missouri Valley. 
For now, will allow the forecast temperatures to rise back to near 
climo values across the region, with a slight cut in temps across 
the east.  Will continue to keep low chance PoPs in the forecast 
through the period though likely capping things at 30 percent or 
less as a start.

Main belt of westerlies looks to remain to our north.  However, 
there are increasing signals that some deeper amplification of the 
flow could commence by late week.  Experimental signal analysis 
suggests a signal crossing by next weekend which could bring yet 
another round of unsettled weather to the Ohio Valley.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 700 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

An unseasonably strong storm system will move into the lower Great 
Lakes through this evening, with a surface cold front trailing from 
this system also approaching our region by later this evening. Ahead 
of these features, the local environment at the TAF sites will be 
supportive of scattered to numerous storms (some strong to severe) 
at times through the late afternoon into the the evening.

This morning, scattered to numerous showers and storms will push to 
the east of LEX, with VFR conditions prevailing outside of any 
thunderstorm. Expect surface winds to increase out of the SSW this 
morning with dry conditions expect late morning through midday.

As we get deeper into the afternoon and evening, expect a broken 
line of strong and severe storms to develop on the nose of a strong 
upper impulse and the approaching cold front. Have tried to depict 
the best 4 hour window for thunderstorms at each site. Look for an 
upgrade to prevailing once confidence grows in timing. A sizable 
wind and hail threat should accompany afternoon/evening t-storms. 

Outside of T-storms, expect VFR with a sct-bkn deck of clouds around 
4-6 K feet at times. Light SE winds this morning will veer to the S 
and then SW today and strengthen. A few gusts in the 20-25 mph range 
are possible this afternoon outside of T-storms.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...RAS
Short Term...BJS
Long Term...MJ
Aviation...BJS


JKL

	

575 
FXUS63 KJKL 201628 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1228 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

A forecast update was just issued. Removed any outdated morning 
wording from the zone forecast text product. Also updated the 
forecast grids and zone forecast text product based on the current
evolution of ongoing thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky. The 
rest of the forecast was in good shape.

UPDATE Issued at 1106 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

A line of strong thunderstorms will continue move across areas of
eastern Kentucky this morning along and north of the Mountain
Parkway. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph have been occurring with some
of the storms. The forecast overall is handling this activity well
enough that forecast update is not required at this time. Will
continue to monitor the situation and will be issuing an update
around noon today to at least remove mention of morning rain
chances and possibly to better capture the ongoing convection. The
latest obs were ingested into the hourly forecast grids to
establish new trends in the data.

UPDATE Issued at 827 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

Upped PoPs to categorical in the Bluegrass region where round 1
sits. Expect this to continue propagating east/northeast through
this morning, with afternoon/evening development dependent on how
mesoscale features play out from this morning's activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 444 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing this morning across
western Kentucky into central Indiana in response to moisture
recovery on the southeastern flank of a stacked low pressure
system rotating through southern Wisconsin. Will likely see some
of this along with some additional development across the
Bluegrass region after dawn as it progresses east/northeast. This
round of convection should come to an end later this morning into
early this afternoon, providing for a period of diabatic heating
through mid-late afternoon. This will set the stage for increasing
instability by mid-late afternoon, which when combined with
continued height falls downstream of the upper low migrating
toward the southern shores of Lake Michigan, will spell a round of
widespread thunderstorms late this afternoon through this evening.

The locales with the best chance for seeing severe thunderstorms,
consisting of primarily damaging winds and secondarily large hail,
will be those along and west of a Morehead to Williamsburg line.
This will be where the greatest instability materializes with 
diurnal heating and better veered south/southwest winds usher in 
richer moisture. Additionally, a period may exist for isolated 
tornado development through early this evening as 0-1 km shear 
vectors increase to around 25 knots while 0-6 km shear vectors 
become orthogonal to the incoming line of convection and any 
subsequent outflow boundaries. A more backed south/southeast 
component to the low level wind field farther east into the 
higher terrain should help hinder a greater threat for more robust
updrafts. The Lake Cumberland region will see the best chances 
for any discrete storms as they will be largely unperturbed from 
earlier day convection, unlike much of the Bluegrass region. Any 
large hail will therefore likely occur west of the local 
Interstate 75 corridor as deep layer shear increases to near 30 or
perhaps up to 35 knots this evening. By mid-late evening, cold 
pool processes should largely overwhelm the available shear as a 
progressive west to east moving line of storms sweeps through 
eastern Kentucky.

Conditions should quiet down overnight into Saturday morning for
the most part. However, may still see isolated to scattered
showers and embedded storms given the moist airmass in place and
propagation of the nearby large scale disturbance into the Ohio
Valley. Daytime heating will help to kick off numerous
showers/storms again during the day on Saturday. The threat for
any severe weather will be conditional on what occurs south and
east of the Commonwealth as this may cut eastern Kentucky off from
the greater instability. May also see a dry slot develop across
portions of the Coal Fields on the southern flank of the low
pressure system. The best chance for any strong storms will be 
in southeast Kentucky nearer the greater available instability.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

Upper level low will shift south over Kentucky Saturday night,
before slowly moving further south on Sunday. This system will
then slowly fizzle out into next week. The best chances for rain
may come on Saturday night into Sunday as deep moisture and lift
is in place for a soaking rainfall. Hard to judge how many
thunderstorms we will see given the abundance of cloud cover, but
will maintain a small chance for storms. Did undercut guidance a
bit on highs Sunday given the cloud cover and elevated rain
chances. As we head into next week, shower and storm chances
should be more focused during the afternoon/evening peak heating
period, as forcing diminishes. However, models continue to provide
chances through at least next Thursday each day and no reason to
doubt this given the wet pattern we have been in. Temperatures
should rebound a bit going into next week with highs back into the
80s.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 827 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

Main threat through the period will be multiple rounds of 
thunderstorms moving across the eastern Kentucky airspace today 
into tonight. The first round will occur this morning into early 
afternoon, with the second and more robust round likely set for 
late afternoon or possibly later this evening. Storms from late 
this afternoon through this evening will have the potential to 
produce severe and erratic wind gusts in excess of 50 knots, with 
the greatest potential for these west of a line from KBYL to KSYM.
Still uncertainty in exact timing/placement of storms, but have
inserted prevailing TSRA for all sites this evening coinciding
with the most widespread coverage of storms. Winds within the 
lowest 2000 feet will likely increase to 30-40 knots or greater at
times, but with these largely being driven by thunderstorms, will
forgo mention of any non-convective low level wind shear. Any 
sub-VFR conditions will be determined by storms moving overhead, 
with the potential for fog depending on clearing mainly near or 
beyond 06Z tonight. Have inserted some MVFR visibilities given 
expected TSRA for all sites and some fog developing due to the 
abundant near-surface moisture overnight. Outside of thunderstorms,
south/southeast winds will veer south/southwesterly this 
afternoon as speeds generally remain near or below 10 knots with 
periodic higher gusts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GUSEMAN

      
PAH

	
003 
FXUS63 KPAH 201148
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
648 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Scattered convection developing throughout southern Missouri will
needs to be watched closely. It is not covered well by guidance
and may result in a revised morning forecast. Don't think that it
will have a significant impact on severe later today, but would 
prefer that it was not there.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Little has changed in regards to the severe weather potential
this afternoon and evening. One thing that is a bit clearer at 
this point is that there is not likely to be any morning
convection to hinder destabilization. To that end, with
temperatures in the low to mid 90s and mid 70 dewpoints, we will 
be expanding the Heat Advisory eastward to Calloway and Marshall 
counties and northward to include Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, 
Alexander and Pulaski Counties. More of the area may eventually 
need to be added depending on just when and where we achieve 
convective initiation.

The 00Z GFS and NAM continue to create a nasty supercell
environment by late this afternoon through the early evening. The
worst conditions will be over west Kentucky early this evening.
The GFS at 00Z has 0-3km SRH around 300m2/s2, surface-based CAPE
over 4000J/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear 55-60kts. Steep mid-level
lapse rates are still forecast as well. All of this points to
nasty supercells with the potential for extremely large hail,
damaging winds and possibly tornadoes. The 0-1km shear is not
overly scary at this time, but it is enough to be concerned about
a tornado threat.

The main concern continues to be convective initiation and the
overall coverage of convection. Given the unfettered heating
expected throughout the area today, we could see isolated
development just about anywhere fairly early in the afternoon, 
but most guidance holds it off until 21Z or later over the 
southeast half of the region, which would allow time for the 
stronger shear to develop. The surface boundaries associated with 
this occluded storm system are not likely to be very well behaved 
or that sharp, so we will just have to wait and see where we get 
some convergence into the afternoon. 

The convection may not exit to the south of the area until after
06Z Saturday, but the severe threat should be done by late evening.
We will continue to have chancy PoPs through the weekend, mainly 
in the east, as the upper storm system moves southward through 
central and eastern Kentucky. 

Temperatures will drop toward normal levels for the weekend, but 
dewpoints will not really drop below the upper 60s until Sunday 
night, so the weekend will be more like normal for July. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Medium confidence in the extended...however models are persistent 
with the synoptic scale features.

Models agree with keeping an upper level ridge over the western US 
with a trough and closed low over the eastern US. This has been the 
trend and all the models/ensembles agree with this solution. They 
have different intensity and exact location of the synoptic scale 
features but very close. There will a significant cool down in the 
wake of a cold front this weekend with highs falling into the lower 
to mid 80s early in the extended with a warming trend setting up 
next week. We will have another weak cold front pass through Tuesday 
into Wednesday but will have little effect on temperatures or 
weather. The main culprit will be the upper level low that slowly 
sinks southward across the area toward the gulf coast. This 
combined with afternoon heating will bring diurnal chances of storms 
at the very least. The best chances will certainly be east of the 
Mississippi Valley. With a northerly flow at the surface through the 
extended temperatures will cooler than what we have encountered 
recently but will slowly work there way back toward normal as we 
head through the week. As we approach the end of the week the closed 
low finally gets pushed toward the east coast as yet another trough 
rotates through the eastern US.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Rogue convection over southern Missouri this morning may impact
KCGI in the next few hours. Hopefully a VCSH will cover this.
Southwest winds will kick in by mid-morning and some gusts up to 
20kts will be possible, especially at KEVV and KOWB. The primary
convective event should get going by 20z and push south of all 
TAF sites by 03Z. Very large hail and very gusty winds may
accompany any thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Winds will
eventually calm down and veer to nearly due west behind the 
storms tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening 
     for ILZ092-093.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening 
     for MOZ086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...None.
KY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening 
     for KYZ001>006-008-009.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS

     
 

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Kentucky
Based on observations at 1200pm EDT, Friday July 20, 2018

Across Kentucky...temperatures are near 85 degrees west, near 78 degrees central, and near 75 degrees east. Current sky conditions are fair west, fair central, and cloudy east. In the west, relative humidity is near 69%, and the dew point is near 74 degrees. The heat index is near 92 degrees west. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 71%, and the dew point is near 68 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 78%, and the dew point is near 68 degrees. Current drying conditions are fair west, fair central, and fair east. The livestock heat stress category is danger west, no stress central, and no stress east. Winds are from the southwest at 10 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southeast at 9 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are variable at 5 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 86 degrees at Hopkinsville and Bowling Green. The lowest temperature is 71 degrees at Covington. Click here for the entire list of ag. weather observations across Kentucky.

  
Updated Friday Mid-Day, July 20, 2018

...Severe Weather Expected Today, Heat Advisory West...

According to the latest weather forecasts, an outbreak of severe weather is likely this afternoon and evening across Kentucky. The Storm Prediction Center has a large portion of our area in a "Moderate Risk" (level 4 out of 5 severe risk). Damaging winds, very large hail (> 2+ inches in some instances), and a few tornadoes are possible.

An unseasonably strong storm system will move into the lower Great Lakes through this evening, with a surface cold front trailing from this system also approaching our region by later this evening. The strong storm system will interact with a strongly unstable airmass to develop numerous strong to severe storms. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible along with excessive lightning and heavy rainfall. The most widespread period of storms will be from late this afternoon through late evening. The storms should be out of the area midnight. Scattered showers and storms are then possible mainly each afternoon and evening through the weekend, although aren't expected to be as strong as today.

In addition to the potential for severe weather, western sections of the state also have a Heat Advisory in effect. The heat will be the main threat for today with southern portions of the region exceeding triple digit heat index values. Livestock Heat Stress will rise into the Emergency Category in the west and Danger Category for the remainder of the state.

Kentucky Forecast

Western KY:
Central KY:
Eastern KY:

Specific and detailed farm-by-farm weather forecast information is available in your Point Ag Forecast. New County Ag Weather Page, Current Conditions:Kentucky
, U.S.

 Across the Commonwealth...
Western KY ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING... .REST OF TODAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the morning, then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Central KY .TODAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Eastern KY .THIS AFTERNOON...Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Across the Commonwealth for the next week...

WESTERN KY AREA (including Paducah):

     
Fri Jul 20 11:54:29 EDT 2018

McCracken-
Including the city of Paducah
1054 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

.REST OF TODAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms late in the morning, then chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe
in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. Southwest winds around
10 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in
the evening, then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
after midnight. Some thunderstorms may be severe in the evening.
Lows in the lower 70s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of
precipitation 50 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. West winds 5 to
15 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 70. Northwest winds
5 to 10 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 70. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 70. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 70. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. 


 

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CENTRAL KY AREA (including Louisville and Lexington):

  
   
Fri Jul 20 03:27:42 EDT 2018

Fayette-
Including the city of Lexington
327 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.TODAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some thunderstorms may
be severe with damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall in
the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds 5 to 15 mph.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some thunderstorms
may produce damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall. Lows
in the mid 60s. South winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the lower
80s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
upper 60s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper
70s. West winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. 


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EASTERN KY AREA (including Jackson):

  
Fri Jul 20 12:24:42 EDT 2018

Breathitt-
Including the city of Jackson
1224 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.THIS AFTERNOON...Partly cloudy with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Light winds. Chance of
rain 50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Showers and numerous thunderstorms in the evening,
then numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms late. Patchy
fog late. Some thunderstorms may be severe. Lows in the mid 60s.
Light winds. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms,
then numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms late. Highs in
the lower 80s. Light winds. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and a slight
chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely late.
Lows in the mid 60s. Light winds. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid
70s. Light winds. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 60s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 60s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and a
slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of
rain 30 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. 


Kentucky Medium & Long Range Outlook:

KENTUCKY --------------------------------------------- 6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY JUL 25-29 JUL 27-AUG 2 JUL JUL-SEP ----------- ----------- -------- --------- Temperature: Below Below Above Above Precipitation: Above Above Normal Normal .... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
Click
here for the outlook maps.

And here's the UK Ag, Lawn and Garden Forecast...




WEST - Hazardous Weather
Fri Jul 20 04:36:35 EDT 2018 Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 336 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The potential exists for a significant severe weather episode this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered supercells with very large hail, damaging winds and even a few tornadoes are expected. With time into the evening, these storms could evolve into a line of thunderstorms, with a significant damaging wind threat. Individual storms will move fairly rapidly to the east southeast, while a line would likely dive very quickly to the southeast or south. A Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon for portions of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and west Kentucky. Please refer to the Advisory for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Chances of mainly afternoon thunderstorms are forecast each day, mainly over eastern portions of the region. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary concerns. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters throughout the area should be prepared for activation this afternoon and evening.
CENTRAL - Hazardous Weather
Fri Jul 20 11:03:49 EDT 2018 Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison- Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt- Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford- Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle- Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln- Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell- Cumberland-Clinton- Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany 1103 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018 /1003 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018/ This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Indiana and Central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Scattered storms will develop quickly this afternoon and intensify as a strong upper level weather system pushes through. There will be several waves of storms and all storm hazards are on the table. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are all threats along with very heavy rainfall and intense frequent lightning. Have a way to receive weather warnings and a plan of action. The most widespread period of storms will be from late this afternoon through late evening. The storms should be out of the area midnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Scattered afternoon and evening storms are expected each day through the late weekend and into mid week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will be needed later this afternoon and well into the evening.
EAST - Hazardous Weather
Fri Jul 20 04:46:03 EDT 2018 Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 445 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. Some of the storms late this afternoon and evening could become severe, producing damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Thunderstorms are expected from Saturday through Thursday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any wind damage, hail, or heavy rainfall today.