213 FXUS06 KWBC 202015 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EST Tue January 20 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 26 - 30 2026 Today's numerical models are in very good agreement in depicting a highly amplified 500-hPa flow pattern consistent with the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Much above normal mid-level heights are forecast over the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, with a pair of positive height anomaly maxima of over 270 meters forecast over the Davis Strait and northeastern Siberia, respectively. Across the mid-latitudes, much below normal heights are forecast to span across the entire North Atlantic from Europe to the Eastern CONUS with negative 500-hpa anomalies overspreading the entire US east of the Mississippi. Anomalous mid-level ridging of moderate amplitude is forecast across the western third of the CONUS. Modestly above normal mid-level heights are forecast for most of Alaska in-between the ridges forecast over the western CONUS and over Siberia. Slightly below normal heights are forecast for the Aleutians, associated with anomalous troughing over the northeastern Pacific. Slightly above normal mid-level heights are forecast for Hawaii, associated with anomalous ridging to the west of the state. The strongly negative AO pattern is supportive of widespread bitterly cold temperatures across much of the eastern United States. Below normal temperatures are likely for the entire eastern CONUS and most of the Southern Plains. Exceptionally high confidence (greater than 90 percent chance) of below normal temperatures is indicated for much of the Mid-Atlantic, with potential snow cover adding to the likelihood of bitterly cold air for part of this region. Conversely, anomalous ridging over western North America supports increased chances of above normal temperatures across the western CONUS, Southeast Alaska, and much of southern mainland Alaska. Near normal temperatures are favored for most of the remainder of Alaska under mostly easterly low-level flow. Above normal temperatures are likely for Hawaii, largely driven by above normal sea surface temperatures in the adjacent Pacific. As expansive Arctic surface high pressure descends upon much of the eastern CONUS, below normal precipitation is favored across most areas from the Mississippi Valley and adjacent Central Plains eastward to the Atlantic coast. Above normal precipitation is favored around the southern periphery of the associated mid-level trough, across southern Texas and southern Florida. Below normal precipitation is more likely across the southwestern CONUS, the Great Basin, and Central and Southern Rockies, due to predicted anomalous mid-level ridging. Above normal precipitation is more likely across much of eastern and southern Alaska as well as parts of Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains, broadly consistent with raw dynamical model guidance. Model solutions are trending drier for Hawaii, related to anomalous ridging forecast to the west of the state. Therefore, above normal precipitation probabilities are reduced relative to yesterday, and near normal precipitation is now favored for the state. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 25% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Much Above average, 5 out of 5, due to good model agreement on a highly amplified negative AO pattern. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 28 - FEB 03, 2026 A strong negative AO pattern remains favored for week-2, but with somewhat reduced amplitude relative to the 6 to 10 day period. Above normal 500-hPa heights are forecast to continue to dominate the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Positive height anomaly maxima of 210 meters and 150 meters are forecast for Davis Strait and northern Siberia, respectively. Below normal mid-level heights are forecast to continue to dominate the eastern United States east of the Mississippi. Anomalous ridging is forecast over western North America with the mean ridge axis positioned slightly inland from the coast. Anomalous troughing is forecast over the Aleutians with associated below normal heights overspreading much of southwestern Alaska, the Bering Sea, and much of the northeastern Pacific. Generally above normal mid-level heights are forecast for Hawaii. An Arctic air mass is forecast to continue to dominate the eastern CONUS with below normal temperatures favored for almost all areas from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast. Exceptionally high confidence (greater than 90 percent chance) of below normal temperatures is posted for much of the Mid-Atlantic states, with the potential for residual snow cover adding to the chances of colder than normal conditions. Persistent anomalous ridging across western North America favors above normal temperatures for most of the western CONUS and southeastern Alaska. High confidence (greater than 70 percent chance) of above normal temperatures is forecast for parts of the Pacific Northwest, northern California, and the Great Basin. Confidence is low for the temperature forecast across northern and western Alaska due to competing influences from the ridge over Davis Strait and the ridge over northern Siberia. A slight tilt toward near normal temperatures are indicated for these regions. Above normal temperatures are likely for Hawaii, largely driven by above normal sea surface temperatures in the adjacent Pacific and anomalous ridging. Expansive Arctic surface high pressure is forecast to persist well into week-2 across most of the eastern United States. As a result, below normal precipitation is favored for most areas from the Mississippi Valley to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The highest confidence (greater than 50 percent chance) of drier than normal conditions is forecast for the northern Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes, where teleconnections from the predicted mid-level height anomaly centers across the Northern Hemisphere are in good agreement. Increased chances of below normal precipitation are also posted for much of the Southwest, eastern Great Basin, and the central and southern Rockies, due to predicted anomalous mid-level ridging. As the ridge over western North America pushes inland, increased chances of above normal precipitation are forecast for the Pacific Northwest, parts of adjacent northern California, and much of southern Alaska, consistent with teleconnections associated with an upstream trough predicted over the northeastern Pacific. There are slightly increased probabilities of above normal precipitation across parts of the northern High Plains, consistent with raw dynamical model guidance and with teleconnections from the strong positive height anomaly center forecast over the Davis Strait. Conversely, below normal precipitation is more likely for the state of Hawaii, associated with anomalous ridging. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to a predicted continued highly amplified negative AO pattern, especially early in the period. FORECASTER: Scott H Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on February 19. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 19990104 - 19940131 - 20190127 - 20220125 - 20090114 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20090115 - 20220124 - 19990104 - 20090121 - 20190127 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jan 26 - 30 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jan 28 - Feb 03, 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$