US Weekly Rainfall Departure		US Weekly Temperature Departure

238 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Overall, the primary concerns for this forecast will be the 
dangerous levels of heat stress through mid week, and then an 
increasing threat for heavy rainfall as we go into late week and the 
weekend.

Today through Tonight: Quiet weather conditions are expected across 
our CWA this morning as near term guidance continues to show a 
1020mb sfc high gradually pushing northeast across the southeast 
CONUS. Much of our CWA will not see convection but isolated 
afternoon storms cannot be ruled out in the far northwest and across 
the southeast. Humid conditions will persist across the area thanks 
to this sfc high which will lead to dangerous heat concerns across 
the region. Areas along and west of a line from Greenwood to Jackson 
to Laurel, MS will have the best potential to see heat index 
readings between 106-110 degrees. As a result, A heat advisory will 
go into effect today for the aforementioned areas.  No changes have 
been made and the "Elevated" risk for dangerous heat stress will 
continue to be advertised. Afternoon highs will peak into the mid to 
upper 90s areawide. /CR/22/SW/EC/

Wednesday through Sunday: Dangerous heat with triple digit heat 
indices will continue into Wednesday and Thursday as the surface 
high remains over the southeast CONUS. As this high continues to 
hover over the region, humid conditions will persist across our CWA. 
Rain chances will start to increase across eastern portions of our 
forecast area thanks to northeasterly moist boundary layer 
advection. Elsewhere, areas west of I-55 will remain fairly dry. The 
warming trend will continue into Thursday with afternoon highs in 
the mid/upper 90s with dewpoints in the mid 70s possibly reaching 80 
degrees. While multiple areas across our entire forecast area will 
have the best potential to see heat index readings in the 106-110 
range, there are a few isolated spots west of I-55 that could see 
heat indices greater than 110 degrees. At this time, no changes were 
made to the dangerous heat graphic for the Wednesday and Thursday 
and the "Elevated" and "Limited" risk will continue to be 
advertised. Over the next couple of days, the heat graphic may have 
to include a "Significant" risk area for the Delta and NE LA 
parishes along with additional heat advisories.

Concerning the potential for impacts from a developing tropical 
system: the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is now indicating a 
medium probability (increase to 40%) for tropical cyclone 
development near the northern Gulf Coast. With tropical moisture 
pushing into our region and PWATs in the 90th percentiles, the 
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is still indicating a "Slight" risk 
for excessive rainfall for Friday and Saturday. There is a high 
ceiling for rainfall amounts that will be largely conditional on the 
level of organization and track of this potential system. Much of 
the ensemble guidance indicates the system will trend farther south 
with a heavy rainfall axis primarily impacting LA while skirting our 
western and southern areas. There is a sizeable contingent of 
guidance that pulls the threat more eastward and up the I-55 
corridor. With forecast confidence still relatively low in the whole 
scenario, will hold off on more formal flood threat messaging, but 
will continue to highlight a more general heavy rainfall threat, 
especially for southern/western areas. All interests in the area 
should continue to monitor for updates as we go through the next few 
days. CR/SW/EC/

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

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Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.

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Regional Hourly Observations For JEFFERSON County
400 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025

NATCHEZ        CLEAR     72  70  93 SW3       30.08S                  
PINE BELT        N/A     72  72 100 CALM      30.08S                  

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

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Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Mississippi
Based on observations at 400am CDT, Tuesday July 15, 2025

Across Mississippi...temperatures are near 75 degrees north, near 74 degrees central, and near 79 degrees south. Current sky conditions are clear north, clear central, and clear south. In the north, relative humidity is near 96%, and the dew point is near 74 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 97%, and the dew point is near 73 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 86%, and the dew point is near 75 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is no stress north, no stress central, and no stress south. Winds are calm north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 79 degrees at Biloxi. The lowest temperature is 70 degrees at McComb.

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Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map

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Hazardous Weather Outlook For JEFFERSON County
Hazardous report currently not available
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

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7-Day Forecast For JEFFERSON County, MS
359 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING

TODAY
Mostly sunny. Humid with highs in the mid 90s. Light and variable winds, becoming west around 5 mph. Heat index values up to 106.

TONIGHT
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s. South winds around 5 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable.

WEDNESDAY
Sunny with highs in the mid 90s. West winds around 5 mph. Heat index values up to 109.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the mid 70s. Light and variable winds.

THURSDAY
Mostly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Humid with highs in the lower 90s. Northwest winds around 5 mph, becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent. Heat index values up to 107.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.

FRIDAY
Partly sunny. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers with thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Temperature falling into the lower 80s in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.

SATURDAY
Partly sunny. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 70 percent.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.

SUNDAY
Partly sunny with a chance of showers. A chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy in the evening, then clearing. Lows in the lower 70s.

MONDAY
Sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. Chance of rain 40 percent.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

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Medium & Long Range Outlook For Mississippi

                          MISSISSIPPI                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   JUL 20-24    JUL 22-28    JUN       JUN-AUG                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above                                            
 Precipitation:      Above        Above                                            

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy

5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook

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Almanac Information

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Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

////////////////////////////
JULY 15TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1916...
A dying South Atlantic Coast storm produced torrential rains in the
southern Appalachian Mountains. Altapass NC was drenched with more than 22
inches of rain, a 24 hour rainfall record for the state. Flooding resulted
in considerable damage, particularly to railroads. (David Ludlum)
...1954...
The temperature at Balcony Falls VA soared to 110 degrees to establish a
state record. (The Weather Channel)
...1983...
The Big Thompson Creek in Colorado flooded for the second time in seven
years, claiming three lives, and filling the town of Estes Park with eight
to ten feet of water. (The Weather Channel)
...1987...
Unseasonably cool weather spread into the south central and eastern U.S.
Fifteen cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including
Houghton Lake MI with a reading of 37 degrees. The high temperature for the
date of 58 degrees at Flint MI was their coolest of record for July.
Thunderstorms spawned several tornadoes in Illinois and Indiana, injuring a
cow near Donovan IL. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1988...
Twenty-six cities east of the Mississippi River reported record high
temperatures for the date. Charleston WV established an all-time record
high with a reading of 103 degrees, and Chicago IL reported a record fifth
day of 100 degree heat for the year. A severe thunderstorm moving across
Omaha NE and the Council Bluffs area of west central Iowa spawned three
tornadoes which injured 88 persons, and also produced high winds which
injured 18 others. Winds at the Omaha Eppley Airport reached 92 mph. Damage
from the storm was estimated at 43 million dollars. (Storm Data) (The
National Weather Summary)
...1989...
Thunderstorms drenched Kansas City MO with 4.16 inches of rain, a record
for the date. Two and a half inches of rain deluged the city between Noon
and 1 PM. Afternoon thunderstorms in South Carolina deluged Williamstown
with six inches of rain in ninety minutes, including four inches in little
more than half an hour. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data)


Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky