448 
FOUS30 KWBC 030828
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

The latest guidance continues to have heavier QPF over the 
Southeast Louisiana Parishes with areal averages of 2 to 3 inches
for areas along and south of I-10 from near New Orleans through 
Biloxi towards Mobile, with some of the CAMs as much as 3 to 5 
inches near the coastline. Spread persists in the placement of the
local maxima with the highest potential likely over either St. 
Bernard or Plaquemines Parishes, both areas that are very difficult
to flood due to the swampy land structures and sandier soils that 
limit flash flood potential. 

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024 - 12Z Sat Oct 05 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

During this period there will be broad cyclonic over the Western 
Gulf along with deep tropical air that advects into the flow. This
will result in convection that breaks out across the Gulf and
creeps inland into South Texas. A majority of the guidance
maintainsthe highest QPF offshore however there could be 0.75 to 
1.5 inches that occurs in South Texas that should provide 
beneficial moisture to the area rather than pose as an threat for 
local flooding concerns.

Campbell

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 05 2024 - 12Z Sun Oct 06 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell

Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt