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Van buren County, TN Weather And Climate Synopsis

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36 Hr. Forecast Map
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Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts

US Weekly Rainfall Departure

US Weekly Temperature Departure
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.

National Weather Service Nashville TN
308 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018


Models have evolved a slightly different solution compared to last
night's runs, and have placed the better shot at severe convection
further west. The consensus of most models places the stronger
storms along and west of I-24 from the late afternoon through the
evening. The earlier convection, which looked like it could come
through this morning, has all but disappeared in model runs so
far. Convection is ongoing in northern KY/southern IN, but looks
to progress more eastward. However, there may be some southern
development, and may impact northeast zones this morning. This
convection does not look to be severe, but it's main impacts would
be working over the atmosphere a bit and limit severe potential
later for the northeast. Should any showers or storms develop this
morning or early afternoon, it would limit the severe potential
for the late afternoon and evening timeframe, but majority of CAMs
keep things mainly dry before the main event later today. Prior to
the storms later today, very hot and humid conditions are
expected especially west of I-65, where highs will reach the 
lower 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s - leading to heat 
indicies in the 100-105 range this afternoon which is just below 
our heat advisory criteria.

In terms of the synoptic setup, and mesoscale severe parameters,
not much has changed compared to model runs 24 hours ago. Upper
closed low over the southern Great Lakes region will slowly move
ESE during the day and into Saturday morning, and will drag a cold
front southeastward towards the mid state later today and tonight.
MUCAPE/SBCAPE values this afternoon look to exceed 2500 J/kg, and
even 3000 J/kg west of I-65. 0-6 km shear values remain strong as
well, with 50-60 knots and orthogonal 0-1 km shear vectors 
between 10-30 knots in the late afternoon/early evening. This 
would suggest that the tornado threat would be highest during the 
late afternoon and early evening when low level shear and helicity
are maximized relative to the 0-6km shear and storm motion 
vector. Surface winds largely look to be SSW, but any backing of 
the surface winds to be S or SSE will increase low level helicity 
and shear, and with isolated storms ahead of the main band of 
convection would make tornado development more likely. 0-3 km 
helicity values in the northwest/west zones maximizes around 
500-600 m2/s2 in the early evening. Line normal shear vectors 
suggest the southeast movement of convection, which will largely 
be most of the developing line, will be nearly ideal for QLCS 
tornado development as well. 

Further sounding analysis still shows substantial mid level dry 
air for July, and very strong low to mid level lapse rates around
or greater than 8C/km. Downburst/microburst parameters are high 
as well with DCAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg. The abundant well-
mixed dry air aloft combined with the above parameters would 
suggest that any severe convection that develops will have little 
difficulty producing damaging straight line winds as well as 
large hail. CAM consensus has convection developing in central KY
by the late afternoon which moves quickly towards the southeast, 
with the line reaching northern AL by midnight. Most of the 
stronger cells indicated by CAMs stay west of I-24, but if no 
showers or storms develop this morning/early afternoon, that may 
allow for additional severe convection through the whole mid state
this evening.

Additional showers and storms may develop behind the main line
overnight as it looks like the severe convection will outrun the 
cold front. Saturday afternoon and evening may see more showers
and storms as the upper low moves southward closer to the region.
By Sunday, the upper low will be just off to the east, so better
chances for precip will arrive on Sunday afternoon across the
area. With the upper low spinning overhead, developing into a 
trough by late Tuesday, and lingering around the region through
the week, afternoon chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
in the forecast through the work week. Zonal flow tries to return
on Friday and save the weekend, but another trough looks to move
in for next weekend and keep precip chances in the forecast.

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For VAN BUREN County
Issued at 500 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

CLARKSVILLE      N/A     75  70  84 CALM      29.90R                  
CROSSVILLE       N/A     69  67  93 S3        30.03R                  
DICKSON        PTCLDY    73  72  94 S7        29.92S                  
LEBANON        CLOUDY    75  70  83 S6        29.92S                  
LIVINGSTON     CLEAR     73  68  83 SW7G16    29.97R                  
NASHVILLE        N/A     76  68  76 S8        29.93S                  
PORTLAND       PTCLDY    73  70  88 S7        29.93R                  
ROCKWOOD       CLEAR     68  66  94 W5        30.02R                  
SMYRNA           N/A     75  68  78 S6          N/A                   
SPARTA         CLEAR     70  68  94 CALM      29.97R                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    75  72  88 S6        29.91R                  
WEST NASHVILLE CLEAR     77  68  73 S7        29.91R                  

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Tennessee
Based on observations at 500am CDT, Friday July 20, 2018

Across Tennessee...temperatures are near 75 degrees west and near 76 degrees central. Current sky conditions are fair west and fair central. In the west, relative humidity is near 84%, and the dew point is near 70 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 76%, and the dew point is near 68 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is no stress west, no stress central, and unavailable east. Winds are from the south at 10 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the south at 8 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are unavailable east. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 76 degrees at Nashville. The lowest temperature is 73 degrees at Paris, Memphis NWS, Covington, and Bolivar.

Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For VAN BUREN County,TN

506 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

 DAY ONE  Today and Tonight

There is a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms across northwest
Middle Tennessee, and an enhanced risk of severe storms over the
remainder of Middle Tennessee, from late this afternoon into
tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop late this afternoon and evening across
southern Kentucky, then spread southeast across Middle Tennessee
into tonight. Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are
all possible with these storms.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Saturday through Thursday

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across the
southeast half of Middle Tennessee on Saturday afternoon into
Saturday evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms containing
damaging winds or large hail will be possible.


Spotter activation is requested this afternoon into tonight across
Middle Tennessee.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For VAN BUREN County, TN
312 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Partly sunny early in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms until late afternoon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.

Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. West winds 5 to 15 mph.

Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs around 80. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s.

Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s.

Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.

Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s.

Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s.

Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s.

Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s.

Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Tennessee
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   JUL 25-29 JUL 27-AUG 2    JUL       JUL-SEP                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Below        Below      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above     Normal     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook

Almanac Information

Friday July 20, 2018 the 201th Day of Year

Declination 20.470000
Distance 0.999716 AU
Rise 06:45 EDT Set 21:01 EDT
Transit Meridian 13:53 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:17 EDT Ends 21:29 EDT

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

The temperature at Washington D.C. soared to an all-time record of 106
degrees. The next day Millsboro reached 110 degrees to set a record for the
state of Delaware. July 1930 was one of the hottest and driest summers in
the U.S., particularly in the Missouri Valley where severe drought
conditions developed. Toward the end of the month state records were set
for Kentucky with 114 degrees, and Mississippi with 115 degrees. (David
The temperature at Keokuk IA soared to 118 degrees to establish a state
record. (The Weather Channel)
Twenty-two inches of hail reportedly fell northeast of Dickinson ND. (The
Weather Channel)
The temperature at Charleston SC hit 104 degrees for the second day in a
row to tie their all-time record high. (The Weather Channel)
Thunderstorms produced severe weather across Minnesota, Wisconsin and
Michigan. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 87 mph at Mosinee WI, and
strong thunderstorm winds capsized twenty-six boats on Grand Traverse Bay
drowning two women. Thunderstorms produced nine inches of rain at Shakopee
MN, with 7.83 inches reported in six hours at Chaska MN. Thunderstorms in
north central Nebraska produced hail as large as golf balls in southwestern
Cherry County, which accumulated to a depth of 12 inches. (The National
Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
The temperature at Redding CA soared to an all-time record high of 118
degrees. Showers and thunderstorms produced much needed rains from New
England to southern Texas. Salem IN was deluged with 7.2 inches of rain
resulting in flash flooding. (The National Weather Summary)
Showers and thunderstorms in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region soaked
Wilmington DE with 2.28 inches of rain, pushing their total for the period
May through July past the previous record of 22.43 inches. Heavy rain over
that three month period virtually wiped out a 16.82 inch deficit which had
been building since drought conditions began in 1985. Thunderstorms in
central Indiana deluged Lebanon with 6.50 inches of rain in twelve hours,
and thunderstorms over Florida produced wind gusts to 84 mph at Flagler
Beach. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky