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Van buren County, TN Weather And Climate Synopsis

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US Weekly Rainfall Departure



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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.

National Weather Service Nashville TN
247 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours have been moving 
across parts of Middle Tennessee. No major flooding has been 
reported so far, but our concerns for flash flooding with 
incoming rainfall have increased enough for issuance of a Flash 
Flood Watch. The watch will cover most of the area. Parts of the 
Plateau will be excluded with lower amounts expected. Many parts 
of the watch area have had 1-2 inches of rain, with some 6+ inch 
totals in the southwest. Over the next 24 hours we expect 
additional widespread 1-3 inches, with locally heavier amounts. 
The intensity of the downpours is really the main concern. So far,
creeks and soils have been able to handle the rain that has 
fallen, and another inch or 2 can likely be absorbed. but when 
more than 1 inch of rain falls in a very short time, flash 
flooding can occur. As each round of showers and storms crosses an
area, the potential for flash flooding increases. This will 
impact mainly streets, low lying areas, and small streams. We are 
not expecting flooding on major rivers at this time. 

Why all the rain? Deep moisture will continue to spread across a 
stalled frontal zone over Middle Tennessee. Multiple low pressure 
waves will move up from the Lower Ms Valley during the next 24
hours, with the strongest wave impacting the northwest half of 
our area Monday morning. This will create a very wet, sloppy start
to the work week.

In addition to heavy rainfall, a few thunderstorms could become
strong on Monday. This potential is highly conditional- depending
on any breaks in the rainfall and heating. There will be adequate
low level shear to yield some rotating storms if enough 
instability can be realized. Confidence is low, so we will just 
have to monitor radar trends closely tomorrow. 

Looking ahead to Tuesday and Wednesday, very moist conditions 
remain in place, but the surface boundary will lift well north of 
our area. There will continue to be a good chance for showers and 
thunderstorms, but perhaps not quite the focused heavy rainfall 
amounts we are expecting for tonight and Monday. If conditions 
warrant, the Flash Flood Watch may be extended. There will also be
greater instability Tuesday and Wednesday, so a few strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms could occur. 

Wednesday will mark the beginning of a transition as a front
gradually moves through the area, pushing showers and
thunderstorms to the southeast. Complete drying will not occur
until Friday, but good news that the weekend looks dry.


National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For VAN BUREN County
Issued at 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2018

...NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
CLARKSVILLE    CLOUDY    71  66  84 NE5       30.04F                  
CROSSVILLE     LGT RAIN  68  67  96 CALM      30.12F                  
DICKSON        CLOUDY    70  68  94 CALM      30.04F                  
GALLATIN       PTCLDY    73  72  94 CALM      30.05F FOG              
LEBANON        PTSUNNY   73  70  88 CALM      30.01F                  
LIVINGSTON     MOSUNNY   72  70  94 CALM      30.07F                  
NASHVILLE      CLOUDY    74  69  85 CALM      30.03F                  
PORTLAND       PTSUNNY   73  72  94 CALM      30.04F                  
ROCKWOOD       PTSUNNY   73 N/A N/A N6        30.10S                  
SMYRNA         CLOUDY    73  72  94 SE5       30.04F                  
SPARTA         PTSUNNY   73  70  88 CALM      30.06F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    72  70  94 NE6       30.02F                  
WEST NASHVILLE PTSUNNY   73  70  88 CALM      30.01F                  

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Tennessee
Based on observations at 300pm CDT, Sunday September 23, 2018

Across Tennessee...temperatures are near 76 degrees west and near 74 degrees central. Current sky conditions are cloudy west and cloudy central. In the west, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 74 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 87%, and the dew point is near 70 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is no stress west, no stress central, and unavailable east. Winds are from the northwest at 3 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are unavailable east. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 76 degrees at Memphis International Airport. The lowest temperature is 68 degrees at Dyersburg.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For VAN BUREN County,TN

508 AM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

 DAY ONE  Today and Tonight

Flash flooding may become an issue as some areas have already 
received 2 to 6 inches of rain since Friday. An additional 1 to 2
inches is possible today and tonight, and while there is low 
confidence on the exact location of the heaviest rain, training 
storms will increase the flooding risk.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Monday through Saturday

The atmosphere is expected to become slightly more unstable on
Monday and Tuesday. More widespread thunderstorms may occur, a 
few of which could become strong with gusty winds.

The current wet period will last through Wednesday, and so the
ongoing threat of flooding remains. Rainfall totals from Sunday 
through Wednesday are expected to range from more than 1 inch along 
the Cumberland Plateau to in excess of 4 inches around Clarksville, 
Waverly and Land-between-the-Lakes. 

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

Spotter activation may become necessary for rainfall measurements
and flooding reports today through Wednesday.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook


7-Day Forecast For VAN BUREN County, TN
1212 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

REST OF TODAY
Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. Northwest winds up to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

TONIGHT
Cloudy with a chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

MONDAY
Cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

MONDAY NIGHT
Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. South winds 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

WEDNESDAY
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

THURSDAY
Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s.

FRIDAY
Partly sunny in the morning then clearing. A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s.

SATURDAY
Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


Medium & Long Range Outlook For Tennessee
                            TENNESSEE                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                SEP 29-OCT 3  OCT 1-OCT 7    SEP       SEP-NOV                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above                                            
 Precipitation:      Above        Above                                            

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook

Almanac Information

Sunday September 23, 2018 the 266th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination -0.450000
Distance 0.999719 AU
Rise 07:36 EDT Set 19:41 EDT
Transit Meridian 13:38 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 07:11 EDT Ends 20:06 EDT

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

SEPTEMBER 23RD
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1815...
One of the greatest hurricanes to strike New England made landfall at Long
Island and crossed Massachusetts and New Hampshire. It was the worst
tempest in nearly two hundred years, equal to the hurricane which struck in
1938, and one of a series of severe summer and autumn storms to affect
shipping lanes that year. (David Ludlum)
...1904...
The temperature at Charlotteburg NJ dipped to 23 degrees, the coldest
reading of record for so early in the autumn for the state. (The Weather
Channel)
...1983...
A thunderstorm downburst caused a timber blowdown in the Kaibab National
Forest north of the Grand Canyon. Two hundred acres were completely
destroyed, and scattered destruction occurred across another 3300 acres.
Many trees were snapped off 15 to 30 feet above ground level. (The Weather
Channel)
...1987...
Autumn began on a rather pleasant note for much of the nation. Showers and
thunderstorms were confined to Florida and the southwestern deserts. Warm
weather continued in the western U.S., and began to spread into the Great
Plains Region, but even in the southwestern deserts readings remained below
100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)
...1988...
Thunderstorms developing along a cold front in the south central U.S.
produced severe weather in Oklahoma during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Thunderstorms produced softball size hail near Noble and Enterprise,
and baseball size hail at Lequire and Kinta. A tornado near Noble OK
destroyed a mobile home injuring one person. (The National Weather Summary)
(Storm Data)
...1989...
Seventeen cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures
for the date, including Devils Lake ND with a reading of 22 degrees.
Jackson KY reported a record low of 41 degrees during the late afternoon.
Strong northwesterly winds ushering cold air into the central and
northeastern U.S. gusted to 55 mph at Indianapolis IND. Winds along the
cold front gusted to 65 mph at Norfolk VA, and thunderstorms along the cold
front deluged Roseland NJ with 2.25 inches of rain in one hour. The
temperature at Richmond VA plunged from 84 degrees to 54 degrees in two
hours. Snow and sleet was reported at Binghamton NY. (Storm Data) (The
National Weather Summary)
...2006...
A slow-moving storm system brought torrential rains to Kentucky on 
September 22 and 23, 2006, resulting in widespread flooding.  Eight people 
were killed in the state. It was the worst general flood since the March 
1997 flood.  It was the deadliest weather event in this area since seven 
people were killed in the flood of March 1-2, 1997, and the Super Outbreak 
of tornadoes on April 3, 1974 when 72 lives were lost.

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky