A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
National Weather Service Nashville TN
212 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Wet pattern we have seen the last few weeks keeps rolling on
this forecast period. The next seven days could prove to see
3-4 inches of rain northwest to around 8-9 across the southeast.
After a brief dry segment today, rain returns rapidly tonight
ahead of an approaching warm front and advancing surface low.
This SFC low will move over the mid-state on Sunday. Very little
instability anticipated but shear does ramp up a bit of Sunday
afternoon. Could see a few storms southeast. A few showers likely
to linger on the plateau but a SFC/low-level high moving in will
bring another dry period Monday/Monday night.
Tuesday through Thursday look excessively wet...with several inches
of rain likely for most locations...and especially the south.
Mid-atlantic high holds strong as a SFC low/frontal boundary moves
up the lower MS valley and struggles to move east as mid/level
flow remains nearly parallel. By late Thursday, SFC low weakening
but just gets into north GA. Vertical motion becomes enhanced
during this period as bits of energy pass aloft. Moisture very
deep at this point and moisture advection strong...with axis near
the TN/AL border vicinity. Tuesday night through Thursday,
rainfall amounts looking like ~3 inches north to ~5 south
alone...with heaviest band across north AL. Models have been
trending north so these amounts could increase.
After what looks like at least a break from heavier rain Thursday
night (scattered showers continue), blend of EURO/GFS looks like
Friday into the early part of the weekend yet another warm front,
with another moderate/heavy rain setup.
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For RHEA County
Issued at 500 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2019
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CHATTANOOGA CLOUDY 50 41 71 NE6 29.85S
DAYTON CLOUDY 48 41 76 N6 29.86S
Current Temperatures,
Dewpoint,
RH,
Wind,
Regional Obs,
Surface 4-Panel
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Tennessee
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
US Radar,
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For RHEA County,TN
356 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019 /256 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019/
DAY ONE Tonight
No Hazardous weather is expected.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Sunday through Saturday
Prolonged Period of Heavy Rains and Possible Flooding from
Late Tuesday through Thursday across much of east Tennessee,
southwest Virginia, and far Southwest North Carolina
The heaviest rainfall will likely fall across the Plateau, central
and southern sections of east Tennessee, and southwest North
Carolina where 5 to 7 inches are possible. Locally heavier amounts
possible. Across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee,
rainfall amounts between 2 and 4 inches are possible.
Some areas in east Tennessee have seen record breaking rainfall
over the past couple of days, especially around the Chattanooga
area. Since the ground is already saturated and streams are high,
any additional heavy rainfall will likely cause flash flooding.
Significant stream flooding, flooding of roadways, additional
ponding of low lying areas, and mud slides are possible. Major
river flooding is also a concern for mid to late next week.
There is still some uncertainty on the timing of storms and exact
amounts of rainfall over the next couple of days. We will continue
to monitor this situation and will pass along more information as
the system approaches. There is a possibility of Flood Watches
being issued for at least some parts of the area by mid week.
Continue to monitor future forecasts for the latest information.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation may be needed for mid to late next week for flooding.
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For RHEA County, TN
341 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019
TONIGHT Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely after midnight.
Lows in the upper 30s. Southeast winds 10 mph or less. Chance of
rain 70 percent.
SUNDAY
Rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s. South winds 5 to
15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
SUNDAY NIGHT
Rain showers in the evening, then a chance of
rain showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 30s. Southwest
winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight.
Chance of rain 80 percent.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Light winds.
MONDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Northeast
winds 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY
Rain showers. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of rain
90 percent.
TUESDAY NIGHT
Rain showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible.
Lows around 40. Chance of rain 90 percent.
WEDNESDAY
Rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of
rain 90 percent.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 80 percent.
THURSDAY
Cloudy with showers likely. Highs in the upper 50s.
Chance of rain 70 percent.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Cloudy with showers likely. Lows in the lower
40s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
FRIDAY
Cloudy with showers likely. Highs in the upper 50s.
Chance of rain 60 percent.
FRIDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows in the
upper 40s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
SATURDAY
Cloudy with showers likely. Highs in the lower 60s.
Chance of rain 60 percent.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Fire Danger,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Day 2
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Tennessee
TENNESSEE
---------------------------------------------
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
FEB 22-26 FEB 24-MAR 2 FEB FEB-APR
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Above Above Above Below
Precipitation: Above Above Above Below
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Text,
30-Day Outook,
90-Day Outook,
120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information
Saturday February 16, 2019 the 47th Day of Year
---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination -12.060000
Distance 0.999723 AU
Rise 07:33 EST Set 18:29 EST
Transit Meridian 13:00 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:07 EST Ends 18:55 EST
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
FEBRUARY 16TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1899...
Washington D.C. received 1.26 inches of rain in six hours atop a snow cover
more than 30 inches deep making it the soggiest day of record. (Sandra and
TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
...1903...
The temperature at Pokegama Dam MN plunged to 59 degrees below zero to
establish a state record. (David Ludlum)
...1943...
Record cold prevailed in the northeastern U.S. The mercury plunged to 43
degrees below zero at Concord NH, and to -39 degrees at Portland ME. The
morning low of -32 degrees at Falls Village CT established a state record,
yet the afternoon high that day was 20 degrees above zero. (David Ludlum)
(The Weather Channel)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky
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