US Weekly Rainfall Departure		US Weekly Temperature Departure

National Weather Service Nashville TN
212 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Wet pattern we have seen the last few weeks keeps rolling on
this forecast period. The next seven days could prove to see 
3-4 inches of rain northwest to around 8-9 across the southeast.

After a brief dry segment today, rain returns rapidly tonight 
ahead of an approaching warm front and advancing surface low. 
This SFC low will move over the mid-state on Sunday. Very little
instability anticipated but shear does ramp up a bit of Sunday 
afternoon. Could see a few storms southeast. A few showers likely
to linger on the plateau but a SFC/low-level high moving in will
bring another dry period Monday/Monday night.

Tuesday through Thursday look excessively wet...with several inches
of rain likely for most locations...and especially the south. 
Mid-atlantic high holds strong as a SFC low/frontal boundary moves
up the lower MS valley and struggles to move east as mid/level 
flow remains nearly parallel. By late Thursday, SFC low weakening 
but just gets into north GA. Vertical motion becomes enhanced 
during this period as bits of energy pass aloft. Moisture very 
deep at this point and moisture advection strong...with axis near 
the TN/AL border vicinity. Tuesday night through Thursday, 
rainfall amounts looking like ~3 inches north to ~5 south 
alone...with heaviest band across north AL. Models have been 
trending north so these amounts could increase. 

After what looks like at least a break from heavier rain Thursday 
night (scattered showers continue), blend of EURO/GFS looks like 
Friday into the early part of the weekend yet another warm front, 
with another moderate/heavy rain setup.

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

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Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.

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Regional Hourly Observations For RHEA County
Issued at 500 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2019

SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
CHATTANOOGA    CLOUDY    50  41  71 NE6       29.85S                  
DAYTON         CLOUDY    48  41  76 N6        29.86S                  

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

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Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Tennessee

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Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map

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Hazardous Weather Outlook For RHEA County,TN

356 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019 /256 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019/

 DAY ONE  Tonight

No Hazardous weather is expected.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Sunday through Saturday

   Prolonged Period of Heavy Rains and Possible Flooding from 
Late Tuesday through Thursday across much of east Tennessee, 
southwest Virginia, and far Southwest North Carolina  

The heaviest rainfall will likely fall across the Plateau, central
and southern sections of east Tennessee, and southwest North
Carolina where 5 to 7 inches are possible. Locally heavier amounts
possible. Across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee, 
rainfall amounts between 2 and 4 inches are possible.

Some areas in east Tennessee have seen record breaking rainfall 
over the past couple of days, especially around the Chattanooga 
area. Since the ground is already saturated and streams are high, 
any additional heavy rainfall will likely cause flash flooding. 
Significant stream flooding, flooding of roadways, additional 
ponding of low lying areas, and mud slides are possible. Major 
river flooding is also a concern for mid to late next week.

There is still some uncertainty on the timing of storms and exact
amounts of rainfall over the next couple of days. We will continue
to monitor this situation and will pass along more information as
the system approaches. There is a possibility of Flood Watches 
being issued for at least some parts of the area by mid week.
Continue to monitor future forecasts for the latest information.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

Spotter activation may be needed for mid to late next week for flooding.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

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7-Day Forecast For RHEA County, TN
341 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

TONIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely after midnight. Lows in the upper 30s. Southeast winds 10 mph or less. Chance of rain 70 percent.

SUNDAY
Rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s. South winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Rain showers in the evening, then a chance of rain showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 30s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 80 percent.

WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Light winds.

MONDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY
Rain showers. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of rain 90 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Rain showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows around 40. Chance of rain 90 percent.

WEDNESDAY
Rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 90 percent.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 80 percent.

THURSDAY
Cloudy with showers likely. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 70 percent.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Cloudy with showers likely. Lows in the lower 40s. Chance of rain 60 percent.

FRIDAY
Cloudy with showers likely. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 60 percent.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 60 percent.

SATURDAY
Cloudy with showers likely. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 60 percent.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

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Medium & Long Range Outlook For Tennessee

                            TENNESSEE                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   FEB 22-26 FEB 24-MAR 2    FEB       FEB-APR                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above      Above      Below                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Above      Below                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy

5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook

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Almanac Information

Saturday February 16, 2019 the 47th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination -12.060000
Distance 0.999723 AU
Rise 07:33 EST Set 18:29 EST
Transit Meridian 13:00 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:07 EST Ends 18:55 EST

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy

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Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

FEBRUARY 16TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1899...
Washington D.C. received 1.26 inches of rain in six hours atop a snow cover
more than 30 inches deep making it the soggiest day of record. (Sandra and
TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
...1903...
The temperature at Pokegama Dam MN plunged to 59 degrees below zero to
establish a state record. (David Ludlum)
...1943...
Record cold prevailed in the northeastern U.S. The mercury plunged to 43
degrees below zero at Concord NH, and to -39 degrees at Portland ME. The
morning low of -32 degrees at Falls Village CT established a state record,
yet the afternoon high that day was 20 degrees above zero. (David Ludlum)
(The Weather Channel)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky