A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
National Weather Service Nashville TN
349 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018
.SHORT TERM(Today thru Fri Night)...
Will continue with Winter Wx Advisory thru 21/15Z(10 AM CDT) per
supporting sfc obs, especially showing light snowfall continuing
across the Cumberland Plateau Region, along with regional radar
mosiac imagery. As a result, will also continue with Special Wx
Statement thru 21/12Z(7 AM CDT), but may update it an extend it to
15Z(10 AM CDT) dependent on current sfc obs and regional
satellite imagery/radar mosiacs as 7 AM CDT approaches.
Will be continuing the freeze warning for entire mid state thru
21/15Z(10 AM CDT). With pronounced clring tonight, light winds,
and Canadian based sfc high pressure influences becoming more
established across region, issued another freeze warning for
entire midstate from 22/06Z (1 AM CDT Thu) to 22/14Z (9 AM CDT
Thu). Also mentioned widespread frost across the mid state region
during this time period too. Will break out an early this morning
grouping in the zone forecast product to properly highlight wx
conditions thru 12Z(7 AM CDT). Will then update shortly after to
mesh with current obs conditions and the latest in consensus short
term model reasoning.
Otherwise, expect exclusively light snowfall production to end
after 10 AM CDT, except for highest elevations of Upper
Cumberland Region approaching the KY border. As upper level system
slowly turns eastward, a change over to a light rain/snow mix
across locations just west of and across the remainder of the
Cumberland Plateau Region is expected as the morning hrs progress.
A wintry mix will even persist into the afternoon hrs for the
higher eastern elevations of the Upper Cumberland Region. With
above mentioned Canadian based sfc high pressure influences
becoming more entrenched across the mid state region as the day
progresses, afternoon high temps for today will in some locations
be around 15 degrees below seasonal normal values. Afternoon
highs today will be generally in the 45 to 50 degrees, upper 30s
to lower 40s for locations just west of and across the Cumberland
Plateau Region. Look for any pcpn chances to end by the start of
this evening, with overnight lows generally in the lower 30s for
locations west of and around I-65, with lows 25 to 30 degrees for
locations east of I-65, with clring skies and light winds
A warm up will commence on Thu and into Fri across the mid state
region. Afternoon high temps by Fri will at least be in range of
seasonal normal values for locations west of I-24 where warm air
advection will become most pronounced. Northwesterly upper level
flow will by Thu afternoon usher in some additional cloudiness to
the mid state region. Possible weak upper level disturbances in
nwly flow aloft across the mid state region will be possible Thu
night into Fri night as upper level ridging influences begin to
build across the mid state region as an upper level trough begins
to develop across cntrl and srn portions of the MS River Valley
Region. A sfc frontal system will move out of the lee of the
Rockies into the mid MS River Valley also by sunrise on Sat
morning. Do not have a lot of confidence in model solutions at
this point when it comes to depicting areal coverage of any short
wave induced rainfall across the mid state region Thu night
into Fri night. Maybe some isolated light shwrs across western
portions of the mid state region Thu night into Fri, with a more
pronounced chance across the entire mid state Fri night as swly
sfc flow becomes more established ushering in a more unstable air
mass to our region. This warm air advection scenario and increased
cloud coverage on Fri night will keep overnight lows Fri night
spanning from the lower 40s Cumberland Plateau Region to upper 40s
TN River Valley Region.
.LONG TERM(Sat thru Tue)...
The extended period will be unsettled, with several systems bringing
chances for showers. The first will bring a good chance for
showers Saturday, tapering off Saturday night. In Mid TN. this
system is expected to produce from one quarter inch of rain
southwest to as much as 1 inch northeast. Temps on Saturday will be
mild with highs in the 60s. Lows will drop to the 40s. Sunday
will bring the lowest rain chance in the extended period with
the area in between rain-producing systems. Highs will be mainly
in the lower 60s.
Chances for showers return by Sunday night, and will continue on and
off through midweek as southwest flow aloft brings moisture
and several disturbances across the region. Highs will be mainly in
the 60s with low mainly upper 40s to lower 50s. A few thunderstorms
will be possible next week, but we do not expect severe wx.
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For LAKE County
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Tennessee
Based on observations at 300am CDT, Wednesday March 21, 2018
Across Tennessee...temperatures are near 43 degrees west and near 36 degrees central. Current sky conditions are mostly cloudy west and cloudy central. In the west, relative humidity is near 76%, and the dew point is near 36 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 82%, and the dew point is near 31 degrees. Winds are from the north at 5 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the northwest at 13 mph with gusts at 18 mph central, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. The wind chill is near 27 degrees central. Winds are unavailable east. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 43 degrees at Memphis International Airport. The lowest temperature is 32 degrees at Selmer and Bolivar.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For LAKE County,TN
337 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018
DAY ONE Today and Tonight
A Freeze Warning is in effect for this morning across portions of
West Tennessee. A Frost Advisory is in effect for much of West
Tennessee, North Mississippi the Missouri Bootheel and Northeast
Another Freeze Warning is in effect late tonight for much of West
Tennessee and portions of North Mississippi. A Frost Advisory is
in effect late tonight for most of the remainder of the Mid-South.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Thursday through Tuesday
The Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory will continue into Thursday
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For LAKE County, TN
336 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018
FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY
TODAY Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph.
TONIGHT Clear. Lows in the lower 30s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. North winds
around 5 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
THURSDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 40s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT Warmer. Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 50s.
SATURDAY Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 60s.
SATURDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 40s.
SUNDAY Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs around 60.
SUNDAY NIGHT Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows around 50.
Chance of rain 60 percent.
MONDAY Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 60s.
MONDAY NIGHT Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s.
TUESDAY Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the mid 60s.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Tennessee
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
MAR 26-30 MAR 28-APR 3 MAR MAR-MAY
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Above Normal Normal Above
Precipitation: Above Above Above Above
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Wednesday March 21, 2018 the 80th Day of Year
Distance 0.999721 AU
Rise 06:48 EDT Set 19:00 EDT
Transit Meridian 12:53 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:23 EDT Ends 19:24 EDT
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
A tornado swarm occurred in the Deep South. Between late afternoon and
early the next morning severe thunderstorms spawned 31 tornadoes in
Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and Tennessee. The tornadoes killed 334
persons and injured 1784 others. Northern Alabama was hardest hit.
Tornadoes in Alabama killed 286 persons and caused five million dollars
damage. (David Ludlum)
Severe thunderstorms spawned thirty-one tornadoes across Arkansas,
Tennessee, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama and Kentucky. The tornadoes
killed 343 persons and caused 15 million dollars damage. Arkansas and
Tennessee each reported thirteen tornadoes. The towns of Judsonia AR and
Henderson TN were nearly wiped off the map in what proved to be the worst
tornado outbreak of record for Arkansas. A tornado, one and a half miles
wide at times, left a church the only undamaged building at Judsonia.
(David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky