A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
National Weather Service Nashville TN
222 AM CST Thu Nov 22 2018
Another quiet night across the mid state, with the threat of fog
again in the forecast this morning. Satellite trends showing some
fog development, but not as much as last night at this time. Have
fog mention in the forecast and will continue to monitor for any
additional development overnight.
With upper ridging building in today, temps will warm a bit to
yield highs in the upper 50s for most of the area. Dry conditions
will continue for most of the day Friday, but an approaching
Plains trough will have cloud cover move in from west to east
during the day, and increase wind speeds at the surface. Still
looking like southerly winds will be around 10 to 15 mph with
gusts around 25 mph by the early afternoon Friday, and may pick up
to be 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the late afternoon and
evening especially at higher elevations. Chances for rain will
move in from the west by mid afternoon and spread across the area
overnight, with the best chances during the evening Friday through
early morning hours Saturday.
The upper trough should move through quickly, and skies will begin
to clear from west to east Saturday. Still may be some lingering
showers on the Plateau late morning Saturday but the sun should be
out for most of the mid state by mid afternoon. With shortwave
ridging moving in between troughs, temps will be quite warm with
most of the area seeing the low 60s. Dry weather will be short
lived as a stronger trough will move in Sunday. Models are still
not lining up all that well yet, but at least they all agree on a
more northerly track which has the upper closed low around central
IL by 00Z Monday. This has the best chances for the next round of
showers Sunday afternoon through the overnight hours Monday
morning. Still looks like by the time its cold enough for snow or
mixed precip, the moisture is off to the east, so still holding on
to all rain in the forecast for now.
With another trough/closed low over the Great Lakes region next
week, northwest flow will settle in aloft for most of the week.
Models are having a hard time lining up with shortwaves moving
through the area and timing on any cloud cover/brief shower
chances, so kept next week mostly dry in the forecast. With
northwest flow aloft, there wont be much rebounding of temps, so
highs in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s/low 30s can be
expected. Models diverge even more by late next week, with just
about a completely opposite solution for Thursday and Friday
between the GFS and ECMWF. The Canadian has a somewhat similar yet
more aggressive solution compared to the GFS, so went ahead and
added in slight chance/chance pops for Thursday afternoon through
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For COFFEE County
Issued at 400 AM CST THU NOV 22 2018
...SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLUMBIA MOCLDY 28 28 100 CALM 30.33F FOG
FAYETTEVILLE CLEAR 34 32 93 N7 30.31S WCI 28
LAWRENCEBURG CLEAR 28 28 100 CALM 30.33R
LEWISBURG CLEAR 25 23 93 CALM 30.34F
MCMINNVILLE CLEAR 28 27 93 CALM 30.33S
MURFREESBORO CLEAR 30 28 93 CALM 30.35R
PULASKI CLEAR 28 28 100 CALM 30.34R
SHELBYVILLE CLEAR 28 27 93 CALM 30.34S
TULLAHOMA CLEAR 28 28 100 CALM 30.32F
WINCHESTER CLEAR 28 28 100 NE3 30.32S
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Tennessee
Based on observations at 500am CST, Thursday November 22, 2018
Across Tennessee...temperatures are near 35 degrees west and near 32 degrees central. Current sky conditions are fair west and fair central. In the west, relative humidity is near 92%, and the dew point is near 33 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 88%, and the dew point is near 29 degrees. Winds are calm west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are unavailable east. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category west, no stress category central, and unavailable category east. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 35 degrees at Memphis International Airport. The lowest temperature is 28 degrees at Jackson.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For COFFEE County,TN
422 AM CST Thu Nov 22 2018
DAY ONE Today and Tonight
Patchy, locally dense, freezing fog possible through the
mid morning hours today. Exercise caution on area roadways
thru the mid morning hours today.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Friday through Wednesday
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation will not be needed.
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For COFFEE County, TN
447 AM CST Thu Nov 22 2018
Sunny. Patchy freezing fog early in the morning. Highs
in the upper 50s. East winds up to 5 mph.
TONIGHT Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Southeast winds up to
FRIDAY Partly cloudy in the morning, then cloudy with a
20 percent chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the
lower 50s. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT Showers. Lows in the lower 40s. South winds 10 to
20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph. Chance of showers 90 percent.
SATURDAY Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers in
the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs in the
upper 50s. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s.
SUNDAY Partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers in the
afternoon. Highs in the lower 60s.
SUNDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the mid 30s.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid
40s. Lows in the upper 20s.
WEDNESDAY Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Tennessee
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
NOV 27-DEC 1 NOV 29-DEC 5 DEC DEC18-FEB19
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Below Below Normal Normal
Precipitation: Normal Above Normal Normal
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Thursday November 22, 2018 the 326th Day of Year
Distance 0.999724 AU
Rise 07:31 EST Set 17:35 EST
Transit Meridian 12:33 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:04 EST Ends 18:02 EST
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
An observer at Boston MA recorded a "great tempest of wind and rain from
the southeast all night, as fierce as a hurricane, and thereupon followed
the highest tide which we have seen since our arrival here". (David Ludlum)
Extremely destructive Santa Ana winds blew from Oxnard to San Diego and
inland parts of southern California. The high winds produced a 28,000 acre
brush fire on a 40-mile front west of Crystal Lake. People were ordered off
streets in some areas due to flying debris. (21st-22nd) (The Weather
Over two inches of rainfall was received at the Jackson, KY Weather Office and
the London, KY Corbin Airport in 1991. London measured 2.18 inches of
rain...while Jackson picked up 2.99 inches of precipitation. Both amounts
established new daily rainfall records for November 22nd.
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky