A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
National Weather Service Nashville TN
230 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Dry conditions prevailing as these early morning hours have
progressed and prevalence of dry atmospheric conditions will
continue through morning hours today. With favorable dewpoint
depressions, and in some locations light to calm winds with breaks
in cloud coverage, patchy fog could develop and continue until
mid morning hour today.
Let's take a look at two events that will be potential major
players in potential of strong to severe storm development
across mid state region this afternoon through tonight. First,
possible development of showers and storms from our southwest as
afternoon hours progress today. In examining latest CAMs, North
American, and even global model trends, all generally agree that
convection will move in from southwest today, but some CAMs have
it as early as early afternoon hours across Nashville Metro area
with some only isolated convection across far southwest late.
During afternoon hours today, as region continues under warm
sector development, with it not being out of the question that
record highs could be approached or reached at least across
locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region. Thus this seasonally
warm rich atmospheric airmass looks to be supportive of robust
convective development with upper level shortwave movement
timing eastward into western half of our area key. Model sounding
derived CAPE values could be as high as around 2,000 J/KG, with
PW values around 1.5 inches, with SRH values potentially in
lower 100s, with supportive low to mid level lapse rates for
robust convection development. The coverage of afternoon
convection will play a key role in how much atmosphere has been
worked over and what impacts second wave of convection will bring.
If just isolated convection develops across western portions of
our area this afternoon, secondly, the better chance of strong to
severe thunderstorm development looks to be as evening into at
least first part of overnight hours progress as a strong surface
cold front approaches and then moves into mid state region from
our northwest with a line of showers and storms developing ahead
of it. On average of model derived soundings, not as much overall
CAPE, but a little more SRH than afternoon hours expected tonight,
and with zonal flow aloft supporting multiple shortwave
disturbances in flow aloft. Brief heavy rainfall during evening
hours looks also possible from stronger convection development.
Still looking at 8 PM to 1 AM time frame for greatest risk of
strong to severe storm potential with a general 3 PM to 3 AM time
frame for overall concern of strong to severe storm development.
Within these two waves of potential convective development, lean
toward strong to damaging winds being primary storm threat, but
certainly can not rule out development of large hail or even
development of isolated tornadoes, especially for locations
approaching Land Between the Lakes Region where better dynamics
are expected to be in place supporting this development
respectively. Surface cold front should be positioned just west of
Cumberland Plateau Region just after sunrise on Friday. Thus lows
tonight will range in lower 60s across much of area and may dip
into mid 50s across northwestern portions. Surface cold front will
continue pushing southeastward as day on Friday progressing, with
most showers and storms pushing east of mid state region by late
afternoon hours on Friday. Highs on Friday across eastern and
southern locations will remain relatively seasonally warm, but
highs will be cooler across northern locations mainly in upper
60s.
 National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For BEDFORD County
Issued at 500 AM CDT THU APR 18 2024
SOUTH MIDDLE TENNESSEE
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
LAWRENCEBURG CLOUDY 66 64 94 SW5 30.06S
LEWISBURG CLOUDY 63 63 100 CALM 30.06S FOG
TULLAHOMA MOCLDY 63 63 100 CALM 30.07S FOG
WINCHESTER CLOUDY 63 63 100 SE5 30.08S
MCMINNVILLE CLOUDY 64 63 94 SW3 30.08S
COLUMBIA CLOUDY 68 68 100 S3 30.04S
SHELBYVILLE CLOUDY 66 66 100 CALM 30.07S
Current Temperatures,
Dewpoint,
RH,
Wind,
Regional Obs,
Surface 4-Panel
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Tennessee
Based on observations at 500am CDT, Thursday April 18, 2024
Across Tennessee...temperatures are near 71 degrees west and near 69 degrees central. Current sky conditions are cloudy west and cloudy central. In the west, relative humidity is near 90%, and the dew point is near 68 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 84%, and the dew point is near 64 degrees. There is patchy fog west. Winds are from the south at 8 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 5 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are unavailable east. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 71 degrees at Memphis International Airport. The lowest temperature is 66 degrees at Union City.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
US Radar,
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For BEDFORD County
Hazardous report currently not available
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For BEDFORD County, TN
548 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
TODAY
Partly sunny this morning, then clearing. Patchy fog
this morning. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
TONIGHT
A chance of thunderstorms. Showers. Lows in the lower
60s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
FRIDAY
Mostly cloudy. Showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. West
winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of
rain 70 percent.
FRIDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Less humid with lows in the lower
50s. North winds around 10 mph.
SATURDAY
Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Highs in the mid 60s. North winds around 10 mph with gusts up to
20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in
the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the
mid 40s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
SUNDAY
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 50s.
SUNDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy in the evening, then clearing. Lows
in the upper 30s.
MONDAY
Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
TUESDAY
Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
TUESDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 50s.
WEDNESDAY
Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the
afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Fire Danger,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Day 2
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Tennessee
TENNESSEE
---------------------------------------------
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
APR 23-27 APR 25-MAY 1 JUN JUN-AUG
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature:
Precipitation:
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Text,
30-Day Outook,
90-Day Outook,
120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information
Thursday April 18, 2024 the 109th Day of Year
---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination 11.360000
Distance 0.999719 AU
Rise 07:08 EDT Set 20:24 EDT
Transit Meridian 13:45 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:43 EDT Ends 20:50 EDT
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
APRIL 18TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1880...
More than two dozen tornadoes were reported from Kansas and Arkansas to
Wisconsin and Michigan. More than 100 persons were killed, including 65
persons at Marshfield MO. (David Ludlum)
...1906...
A severe earthquake shook San Francisco, and unusual easterly winds spread
fires destroying the city. (David Ludlum)
...1944...
California experienced its worst hailstorm of record. Damage mounted to two
million dollars as two consecutive storms devastated the Sacramento Valley
destroying the fruit crop. (The Weather Channel)
...1957...
A dust devil near Dracut MA lifted a small child three feet into the air,
and rolled two other children on the ground. Fortunately none of the three
were hurt. The dust devil was accompanied by a loud whistling sound as it
moved westward. (The Weather Channel)
...1970...
Rapid City SD received a record 22 inches of snow in 24 hours. (17th-18th)
(The Weather Channel)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky
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