A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
421 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
Tonight through the day Friday:
Quiet conditions are expected through the day tomorrow although
clouds will be on the gradual increase, especially north of the I-20
corridor. Aloft, the far western extent of a minor "clipper" wave
advancing toward the east CONUS trough axis will be inducing
isentropic upglide (ergo, clouds) upstream of our region where some
light precipitation will also exist. But, as mentioned, in our neck
of the woods all that should manifest is mid to high layer clouds
with conditions tending to moderate quickly as surface high pressure
transitions to the east. Through tonight the high is close enough to
keep winds light and variable over most of the region, but by
tomorrow low-level southerly flow will commence in all areas by the
afternoon. In fact, these surface southerly winds could a bit gusty
at times from midday through the afternoon hours in portions of the
Arklamiss Delta, although at this time thinking is that gusts and
speeds will remain low enough to refrain from mentioning in the
HWO/graphics. Temperatures will continue to trend upward but
scattered clouds will make forecasts of minimum and maximum temps a
little tricky, especially in northern zones. /BB/
Friday night through next Wednesday:
Expect above normal and warm start to the weekend before heavy
rain potential ramps up by mid-late next week.
Overall they synoptic pattern on Saturday morning will consist of
trough departing off the eastern seaboard while mid-level ridging
will be building into the area from the west. This will support the
strong surface high, that has brought below normal low temperatures
into lower 30s and some frost, to build off the southern Atlantic
seaboard. In addition, a mid-level shortwave will be propagating
through the mid-Mississippi Valley, helping lead to surface low over
Missouri area and better southerly return flow and some gusty winds.
This boundary and moisture return look to be the best in the Highway
82 corridor, where some rain & storm chances can't be ruled out on
Saturday. Some of that may extend a little closer to the I-20
corridor but overall should remain in our northern areas. This
pattern of rain and some storms will persist through the weekend,
with a stalled front lingering in the Highway 82 corridor to Golden
Triangle & east Mississippi, which will keep some light rain chances
around. Due to increasing warmth and moisture advection, we should
still top out in the mid-upper 70s to low 80s in the south under
cloudy skies. This will help temperatures remain well above normal
Saturday morning in the mid-upper 50s (~10 degrees above normal) and
in the low 60s (~12-15 degrees above normal). During this time,
couldn't rule a stronger storm or so but overall limited forcing
should limit any more organized potential.
As the strong subtropical ridge builds over the southern Gulf of
Mexico & into the Carribean early next week, the mid-level ridge
axis will extend through the Appalachians and northeast. This will
support a continued warm and cloudy period with some light rain
and storm chances around. As the ridge axis builds to the east,
expect warmer and muggy conditions with cloudy skies and most rain
chances over the western portions of the area.
The pattern around the middle of next week will become more
amplified and consist of a deep mid- level trough digging into the
Desert Southwest and better influx of Pacific moisture into the
southern Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley. This will help a storm
system develop, which will be the main focus. As strong southwest
flow, upper divergence and increasing influx of moisture feeds
along a stalled surface boundary into and just northwest of our
region, heavy rain and a significant flash flooding potential
will be possible. This is somewhat similar to the February heavy
rain event just to our northwest, but with the subtropical ridge
centered over the southern Gulf, it is slightly different.
Uncertainties remain on how this pattern is going to iron out, but
a significant flooding threat will exist near the mid- late
portions of next week. Most of the heaviest axis will remain just
off to our northwest by Wednesday but newer 12Z Euro has sped up a
lead shortwave bringing the heaviest rain in just after the end
of the forecast period. In addition, due to increased warmth,
moisture and stronger southwest flow aloft, some severe threat
could be possible around mid-late next week. Main takeaway is to
keep a close eye on this pattern mid-late next week as small
synoptic differences could make a large differences on impacts
across the region. /DC/
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For UNION County
400 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2018
GOLDN TRIANGLE FAIR 64 35 34 VRB3 30.30F
STARKVILLE FAIR 64 32 29 NE9G16 30.31F
TUPELO FAIR 63 27 25 N12 30.30F
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Mississippi
Based on observations at 400pm CDT, Thursday March 22, 2018
Across Mississippi...temperatures are near 63 degrees north, near 67 degrees central, and near 64 degrees south. Current sky conditions are fair north, fair central, and fair south. In the north, relative humidity is near 25%, and the dew point is near 27 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 29%, and the dew point is near 34 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 48%, and the dew point is near 45 degrees. Winds are from the north at 12 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the northeast at 7 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 12 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 72 degrees at McComb. The lowest temperature is 63 degrees at Tupelo.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For UNION County,MS
326 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
DAY ONE This Afternoon and Tonight
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Friday through Wednesday
Heavy rainfall will be possible across the Mid-South beginning by
middle to late next week.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For UNION County, MS
325 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
Partly cloudy in the evening
then becoming mostly
cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. East winds around 5 mph.
FRIDAY Mostly cloudy. Highs around 70. South winds 5 to
FRIDAY NIGHT Warmer. Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 50s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and a slight
chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds
10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
SATURDAY NIGHT A chance of thunderstorms early in the evening.
A chance of showers in the evening, then a slight chance of
showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest after midnight.
Chance of rain 30 percent.
SUNDAY Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 60s.
SUNDAY NIGHT Cloudy with a chance of showers and a slight
chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of rain
MONDAY Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 60s.
MONDAY NIGHT Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows
in the lower 50s.
TUESDAY Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers.
Highs around 70.
TUESDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s.
WEDNESDAY Showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT Showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 80 percent.
THURSDAY Showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Highs around 70. Chance of rain 70 percent.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Mississippi
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
MAR 28-APR 1 MAR 30-APR 5 MAR MAR-MAY
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Above Normal Normal Above
Precipitation: Above Above Above Normal
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Thursday March 22, 2018 the 81th Day of Year
Distance 0.999721 AU
Rise 07:01 EDT Set 19:14 EDT
Transit Meridian 13:07 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:38 EDT Ends 19:38 EDT
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
A spectactular display of the Northern Lights was visible as far south as
Bradenton FL, El Paso TX, and Fresno CA. At Detroit MI, the display was
described "so brilliant as to blot out all stars below first magnitude".
(22nd-23rd) (The Weather Channel)
A great flood crested on rivers from Ohio to Maine. The flood claimed 107
lives and caused 270 million dollars property damage. (David Ludlum)
Six to ten inch rains caused the Chicago River to overflow its banks. (The
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky