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Prentiss County, MS Weather and Climate Synopsis

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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.

441 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONTINUES WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...

.DISCUSSION...

Through tomorrow:

Short segment of showers and thunderstorms coming in from the
northwest this morning managed to strengthen and produce some wind
damage across north-central MS going through the afternoon as it
moved into an environment of 4000 to 5000 j/kg of CAPE and more
than negligible wind shear. Severe thunderstorm watch # 291 was
issued to cover threat of this cell (and potential of other cells
instigated by tstorm outflow) going into SE MS through 7 pm. The
cell prompting the warning has weakened significantly in the past
hour but other cells are still trying to form along the outflow in
a volatile environment and some of the watch will be kept going
for now, at least until main triggering outflow moves to the
southeast or totally washes out. 

Important to note that current Severe Thunderstorm Watch #291 does
not cover larger threat from severe storms that looks to develop
this evening into overnight hours. In the continued active
northwest flow pattern aloft there is a complex of storms just now
trying to take shape in southern MO. Similar to last night, a
growing complex should forward-propagate southeast into an air
mass over the Lower MS Valley containing 3000+ j/kg of CAPE well
into the evening hours. Convection last night produced wind damage
across portions of the Arklamiss Delta, but tonight the axis that
storm clusters should ride down is shifted a little east and there
is also potential for storms to hold onto their vigor longer into
the night, owing to more instability and a bit more wind shear to
aid in organization. The highest risk for damaging wind gusts
(possibly up to 70 mph in isolated spots) is across roughly the
Golden Triangle although there is still enough potential for
impact well into the heart of the region to support SPC expanding
their SLIGHT risk of severe weather with this afternoon's update. 
There are some signals from HREF data to suggest training
convection could set up into northern zones late tonight into
tomorrow morning as low level flow vectors briefly veer to a
orientation more favorable for back-building. This will be an 
aspect of the situation to watch closely as we go into this 
evening, but for now we will refrain from hitting hard in the 
HWO/graphics because of inherent uncertainties of finer scale 
mesoscale evolution in this sort of setup. 

We anticipate most of the convection should be ending and/or
shifting to our east very late tonight through midday Saturday
morning. There remains at least slight potential in central and
eastern zones that isolated potent storms could pop up in the
afternoon in the midst of convergent low level flow in the wake of
the main overnight convection. Considering the air mass will
remain very unstable and somewhat sheared on Saturday we will have
to monitor this potential later on Saturday closely. However, for
now, general model consensus suggests enough drying and capping aloft
coming in from the west Saturday afternoon to put a lid on most of
the worrisome convection. Otherwise, temperatures will still be
mainly in a range from the mid to upper 90s with a few readings
topping out at the century mark possible in far western zones.
Despite the continuing hot temperatures we do not anticipate
needing another excessive heat warning for tomorrow in any spots,
mainly because moisture looks to have a bit more ability to mix
out some into tomorrow afternoon. /BB/

Saturday night through middle of next week (Thursday):

Primary concerns looks to be dangerous heat lingering through late 
weekend (Sunday), with somewhat brief drier conditions, less muggy & 
less rain & storm chances by early week before gradual increase in 
rain & storm chances through the extended period into next week.

Overall expect hot & dangerously humid conditions to be the main 
concern. As a deep mid-level subtropical ridge slowly retrogrades 
westward into the southern Plains & Rockies, a deep trough & cold 
front will dig down through the Appalachians will dig down through 
into the ArkLaMiss region by Saturday night & into Sunday morning. 
This will slowly help thermal profiles cool (i.e. 925mb around 23-28 
degrees C), which will help temperatures to only slowly cool down, 
ever so slightly in the low-mid 90s while areas south of the front & 
west of the Mississippi River should still be able to peak in the 
upper 90s & possibly near 100 degrees in our far western Louisiana 
parishes. Due to some slightly drier air in the inch to inch & a 
quarter range & 850mb Theta E around 320K & isentropic subsidence, 
expect drier conditions with lower surface dewpoints falling into 
the upper 60s & better mixing. Thus, the heat issues should remain 
confined south of I-20 & especially in the Highway 84 corridor to 
over in the far southern Louisiana parishes. In these area south of 
I-20 we could flirt with heat indices near the 105-110+ degree 
range, with areas in the south more likely. Due to that, going to 
keep an "Elevated" in the Highway 84 corridor & "Limited" south of I-
20 in the HWO. Will mainly keep this bridged with the previous 
graphic & just mention in the HWO for now.

As the trough & cold front dig south, expect the upper trough to 
gradually somewhat cut off over the northern Gulf & southeastern 
states by early next week. This will lead to continued cooler 
thermal profiles & some drier air advecting into the area, at least 
by early week. Due to this, expect highs slowly cool down closer to 
normals but still above normal in the low-mid 90s. In addition, lows 
could fall into the upper 60s in the north-northeast, especially 
into the Highway 82 corridor & Golden Triangle by Sunday & Monday 
nights. Expect moisture advection to only slowly increase from east-
west through the week as the upper low slowly builds westward. 
However, due to north-northeasterly low-level flow, moisture 
advection will be slow to increase. Due to this, expect a dry & rain 
free day on Monday before scattered rain & storm chances move back 
in by early-mid portions of next week. Due to increasing rain 
chances, cooler thermal profiles & some scattered cloud cover, 
expect highs closer to normal & heat stress issues held in check. 
Due to meager lapse rates & flow, not expecting much in the way of 
stronger, more organized development. However, as PWs climb to above 
2 inches & flow is light at times, some slow storm movement & 
locally heavy downpours are possible. /DC/

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For PRENTISS County
700 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

CORINTH          N/A     88  79  74 S5        29.87R HX 102           
GOLDN TRIANGLE FAIR      90  81  74 SE8       29.89S HX 109           
STARKVILLE     FAIR      90  79  70 SW6       29.89S HX 105           
TUPELO         FAIR      90  79  70 SE9       29.87R HX 106           
6HR MIN TEMP:  89; 6HR MAX TEMP:  93;                                

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Mississippi
Based on observations at 700pm CDT, Friday July 20, 2018

Across Mississippi...temperatures are near 90 degrees north, near 91 degrees central, and near 88 degrees south. Current sky conditions are fair north, fair central, and sunny south. In the north, relative humidity is near 70%, and the dew point is near 79 degrees. The heat index is near 106 degrees north. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 63%, and the dew point is near 77 degrees. The heat index is near 104 degrees central. In the south, relative humidity is near 77%, and the dew point is near 80 degrees. The heat index is near 103 degrees south. The livestock heat stress category is emergency north, emergency central, and emergency south. Winds are from the southeast at 9 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 7 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 10 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 93 degrees at McComb. The lowest temperature is 88 degrees at Greenwood and Biloxi.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For PRENTISS County,MS

405 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

 DAY ONE  Today and Tonight

Dangerous heat is expected across the Mid South today. An
Excessive Heat Warning will be in effect from late this morning
through this evening along and west of the Mississippi River. A 
Heat Advisory will be in effect for the remainder of the area.

An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected from late this
afternoon through tonight. There is a Moderate Risk for Severe
Thunderstorms across northwest Tennessee, with an Enhanced Risk of
Severe Thunderstorms across the remainder of the area. The
potential will exist for very large hail, some golfball size or
larger, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Please continue to
monitor the weather through the day and be prepared to take cover
if warnings are issued for your location. 

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

Spotter activation will likely be needed across the Mid South
later this afternoon through tonight.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook


7-Day Forecast For PRENTISS County, MS
627 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018


HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING


TORNADO WATCH 294 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT SATURDAY

TONIGHT
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some thunderstorms may be severe. Lows in the mid 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

SATURDAY
Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s. Northwest winds around 5 mph.

SUNDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY
Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s.

MONDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy. Lows around 70.

TUESDAY
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny in the morning
then becoming partly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.

TUESDAY NIGHT
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy in the evening
then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.

WEDNESDAY
Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

THURSDAY
Mostly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 90.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

FRIDAY
Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


Medium & Long Range Outlook For Mississippi
                          MISSISSIPPI                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   JUL 26-30 JUL 28-AUG 3    JUL       JUL-SEP                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:     Normal        Below      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Below      Below                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Friday July 20, 2018 the 201th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination 20.470000
Distance 0.999716 AU
Rise 07:08 EDT Set 21:06 EDT
Transit Meridian 14:07 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:42 EDT Ends 21:32 EDT

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

////////////////////////
JULY 20TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1930...
The temperature at Washington D.C. soared to an all-time record of 106
degrees. The next day Millsboro reached 110 degrees to set a record for the
state of Delaware. July 1930 was one of the hottest and driest summers in
the U.S., particularly in the Missouri Valley where severe drought
conditions developed. Toward the end of the month state records were set
for Kentucky with 114 degrees, and Mississippi with 115 degrees. (David
Ludlum)
...1934...
The temperature at Keokuk IA soared to 118 degrees to establish a state
record. (The Weather Channel)
...1953...
Twenty-two inches of hail reportedly fell northeast of Dickinson ND. (The
Weather Channel)
...1986...
The temperature at Charleston SC hit 104 degrees for the second day in a
row to tie their all-time record high. (The Weather Channel)
...1987...
Thunderstorms produced severe weather across Minnesota, Wisconsin and
Michigan. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 87 mph at Mosinee WI, and
strong thunderstorm winds capsized twenty-six boats on Grand Traverse Bay
drowning two women. Thunderstorms produced nine inches of rain at Shakopee
MN, with 7.83 inches reported in six hours at Chaska MN. Thunderstorms in
north central Nebraska produced hail as large as golf balls in southwestern
Cherry County, which accumulated to a depth of 12 inches. (The National
Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1988...
The temperature at Redding CA soared to an all-time record high of 118
degrees. Showers and thunderstorms produced much needed rains from New
England to southern Texas. Salem IN was deluged with 7.2 inches of rain
resulting in flash flooding. (The National Weather Summary)
...1989...
Showers and thunderstorms in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region soaked
Wilmington DE with 2.28 inches of rain, pushing their total for the period
May through July past the previous record of 22.43 inches. Heavy rain over
that three month period virtually wiped out a 16.82 inch deficit which had
been building since drought conditions began in 1985. Thunderstorms in
central Indiana deluged Lebanon with 6.50 inches of rain in twelve hours,
and thunderstorms over Florida produced wind gusts to 84 mph at Flagler
Beach. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky