A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
355 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017
Tonight and Friday:
Continued cooler than normal and dry through the short term.
Afternoon surface analysis had a weak cold front drifting into the
central portions of the CWA. This cold front was losing its
momentum as it has become nearly parallel to the upper level
winds. The cold front is still expected to push southeast of our
area this evening as a surface high centered over the Central
Plains this afternoon shifts east through Friday. This will result
in shallow cool air beneath mid level flow that will back a
little further to the southwest tonight. Satellite imagery showed
mid and high level clouds streaming across the southern half of
our CWA this afternoon. Models suggest our CWA will remain in the
favorable quad of a jet streak that will strengthen to >150kts by
Friday morning. Although no precipitation is expected in our CWA
the cloud cover will continue through Friday and limit insolation.
This will hold afternoon highs in the 50s again. Friday morning
lows will be cooler than normal as well with lows in the 30s
Friday night through Wednesday:
As we go into the weekend, expect a chaotic upper pattern as a
longwave polar trough will be moving through the Great Lakes while
two distinct closed shortwaves will be diving into the Great Basin
to over western Mexico. This will only help slowly increase
moisture & clouds as we go into the weekend. By Friday night, the
mid-level ridge axis will be slowly moving towards the area while
PWs will only be around a quarter of an inch or so. The surface
ridge axis will be centered off along the Atlantic seaboard. This
will help south-southwesterly return flow to slowly develop &
moisture will only be slowly moving in by that timeframe. Thus
expect a cold and chilly night (~5-10 degrees below normal) near
freezing to just below in the northeast. As the the shortwave
trough swings into southern Texas on Saturday, the ridge axis will
move directly over the area and expect near normal highs warming
into mid-upper 50s. As isentropic lift slowly increases, mid-high
clouds will increase in coverage.
By late weekend on Sunday, expect the ridge axis to shift east &
southerly return flow to bring back in better moisture into the
area. This will help a cold front with decent low-mid level wind
flow to propagate through the area. PWs will increase to around an
inch and a half to inch and three quarters. Right now it looks as
though most destabilization will remain off to our south & the
surface low development looks to move through most of the central
portions of the area. With around 30-40kts 0-3km bulk shear, can't
rule out a couple stronger storms in the south but overall
organized convection is not expected. This looks to bring enough
moisture & moisture transport into the area to bring some
potential for some heavy downpours, possibly upwards of an inch or
so. This will help make some of a dent in rainfall deficits
across the area.
Expect this shortwave trough to swing through by Sunday night.
However, this persistent southwest flow pattern will continue
through most of next week. This will help moisture & rain chances
to linger through the work week. The main difference looks to be
around mid- late week as the Euro is less phased, which keeps the
rainfall chances lingering through the period. This airmass will
also keep clouds & cooler temperatures but with increasing thermal
profiles, can't rule out temperatures reaching the mid-upper 60s
or so (~8-10 degrees above normal). Went slightly cooler for highs
around early portions of the week but due to increasing warm air
advection, still could warm efficiently. Also lows seemed too cool
as there is significant spread in the ensembles/guidance on
phasing of the trough & timing of the cold front moving through.
Due to that, trimmed lows around 3 degrees or so towards the MOS
ensemble means but would not be surprised for this to slowly
increase due to moisture, rain & clouds around. By Wednesday, if
the pattern is less phased (which this package was leaning towards
with the Euro), we could have some showers mainly along & south
of I-20 on Wednesday. /DC/
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For PERRY County
400 PM CST THU DEC 14 2017
NATCHEZ CLOUDY 54 41 61 CALM 29.98S
PINE BELT MOCLDY 56 45 66 CALM 29.98R
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Mississippi
Based on observations at 400pm CST, Thursday December 14, 2017
Across Mississippi...temperatures are near 52 degrees north, near 57 degrees central, and near 56 degrees south. Current sky conditions are clear north, cloudy central, and mostly cloudy south. In the north, relative humidity is near 41%, and the dew point is near 29 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 47%, and the dew point is near 37 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 76%, and the dew point is near 49 degrees. Winds are from the north at 9 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 5 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category north, no stress category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 58 degrees at McComb, Hattiesburg, and Gulfport. The lowest temperature is 52 degrees at Tupelo and Meridian Key Field.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For PERRY County,MS
440 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017
DAY ONE Today and Tonight
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Friday through Wednesday
Potential for a few strong storms capable of producing localized
damaging wind gusts Sunday and Monday.
There is a moderate risk for rip currents along area beaches
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Activation of SkyWarn severe spotter networks is not expected
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For PERRY County, MS
255 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. North winds up
to 5 mph.
FRIDAY Cooler, cloudy. Highs around 50. North winds up to
FRIDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly
cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. North winds up to 5 mph in the
evening becoming light.
SATURDAY Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Southeast winds
up to 5 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT Not as cool. Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance
of rain showers after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows
in the upper 40s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
SUNDAY Warmer. Patchy fog in the morning. Rain showers likely
and slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 70. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent.
SUNDAY NIGHT Warmer. Showers likely and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Near steady temperature in the lower
60s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
MONDAY Rain showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Areas of fog in the morning. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Highs
in the lower 70s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
MONDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with chance of rain showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows in the upper
50s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
TUESDAY Mostly cloudy with chance of rain showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of
precipitation 40 percent.
TUESDAY NIGHT Cooler. Mostly cloudy with chance of rain
showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with slight chance of
rain showers after midnight. Lows in the mid 40s. Chance of
showers 30 percent.
WEDNESDAY Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of rain
showers. Highs in the lower 60s.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s.
THURSDAY Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Mississippi
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
DEC 20-24 DEC 22-28 DEC DEC-FEB
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Above Above Above Above
Precipitation: Above Above Below Below
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Thursday December 14, 2017 the 348th Day of Year
Distance 0.999725 AU
Rise 07:54 EST Set 17:57 EST
Transit Meridian 12:55 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:28 EST Ends 18:23 EST
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
Wet and cold: Louisville, KY set both a record low (2 degrees) and a daily
precipitation record (2.21 inches). (The high temperature that day was 42.)
The temperature at Helena MT plunged 79 degrees in 24 hours, and 88 degrees
in 34 hours. The mercury plummeted from 63 above to 25 below zero. At
Fairfield MT the temperature plunged 84 degrees in just 12 hours, from 63
at Noon to 21 below zero at midnight. (David Ludlum)
A powerful storm spread heavy snow from the Southern High Plains to the
Middle Mississippi Valley, and produced severe thunderstorms in the Lower
Mississippi Valley. During the evening a tornado hit West Memphis TN
killing six persons and injuring two hundred others. The tornado left 1500
persons homeless, and left all of the residents of Crittendon County
without electricity. Kansas City MO was blanketed with 10.8 inches of snow,
a 24 hour record for December, and snowfall totals in the Oklahoma
panhandle ranged up to 14 inches. Strong winds, gusting to 63 mph at Austin
TX, ushered arctic cold into the Great Plains, and caused considerable
blowing and drifting of snow. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
Blowing snow was reported in western Kansas, as snow and gusty winds
plagued the Central Rockies and Central High Plains. Colorado Springs CO
reported thirteen inches of snow. Low pressure in Wisconsin brought heavy
snow to the Lake Superior snowbelt area, with 22 inches reported at
Marquette MI. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
High winds and heavy snow prevailed from Montana to Colorado. Snowfall
totals in Wyoming ranged up to 20 inches at Burgess Junction, leaving up to
48 inches on the ground in the northeast sections of the state. Wind gusts
in Colorado reached 87 mph south of the town of Rollinsville. Strong
northwesterly winds continued to produce heavy snow squalls in the Great
Lakes Region. Totals in northeastern Lower Michigan ranged up to 29 inches
at Hubbard Lake, with 28 inches reported at Posen. Two day totals in
northeastern Wisconsin ranged up to thirty inches. (Storm Data) (The
National Weather Summary)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky