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Marion County, MS Weather and Climate Synopsis

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36 Hr. Forecast Map
All Radar images NOAA/UKAWC
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Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts





US Weekly Rainfall Departure



US Weekly Temperature Departure
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.

350 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...Isolated storms will remain possible as day 
breaks across the ArkLaMiss this morning as a couple of outflow 
boundaries, one over East Central Mississippi and the other moving 
into Southeast Mississippi, slow their southeast progression.  With 
high pressure aloft building deeper into the region today from the 
west and the aforementioned slowing boundaries, it'll be primarily 
over East and Southeast Mississippi where the better rain chances 
will reside this afternoon.

Although high-res models agree with this scenario today, they 
haven't exactly performed stellar over the past 48 hours.  So, 
attention to radar and satellite will need to be paid upstream under 
this continued northwest flow for any MCS or outflow activity that 
could propagate southeast into the region, potentially initiating a 
better coverage of convection during the today period.

Speaking of northwest flow and MCSs, global and high-res models are 
in good agreement with a potentially stout affecting mainly the 
eastern half of the CWA during the overnight hours.  With plenty of 
instability hanging on overnight in this warm and moist airmass, 
steep mid-level lapse rates, and adequate deep-layer wind shear, 
some severe storms will be possible with this complex as it affects 
the area later tonight.  Currently, the better potential for severe 
storms will reside along and northeast of a Greenville to Meridian 
line, where a "Slight Risk" for severe storms exists.  A narrow 
"Marginal Risk" area reside outside the "Slight Risk" are from 
Hamburg, AR, to Jackson, to Laurel.  Isolated severe storms are 
possible within this "Marginal Risk" area.  Severe storms will be 
capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail.  In 
addition, nearly continuous lightning and torrential rainfall can be 
expected as will with this complex as well.

Before we get to the severe weather threat for tonight, dangerously 
high levels of heat stress will continue today.  Afternoon highs 
ranging from the mid 90s to around 100, coupled with dew points in 
the 70s, will again promote afternoon heat index values between 105-
110, especially across the Delta region.  As a result, another "Heat 
Advisory" has been hoisted for today from 11 AM until 8 PM.  If 
either temperatures or dew points run higher than what's currently 
being forecast this afternoon, portions of this "Heat Advisory" may 
need to be escalated to an "Excessive Heat Warning".  Lows 
tonight will again remain mild, and fall into the 70s. /19/

Saturday through Thursday: The primary concerns will be heat stress 
and rain chances through the period. 

The period will be characterized by anomalous mid to upper ridging 
west to mid to upper troughing over eastern conus. This will bring 
northwest flow to the region during the period. The ridging will 
contract some toward the west on Saturday as upper troughing becomes 
dominate from the north. Meanwhile anomalous low to midlevel temps 
will continue on Saturday but will decrease on Sunday. This will 
result in highs in the middle to upper 90s with some triple digit 
numbers west of the MS River on Saturday. This will bring heat 
indices from the around 105 to 113. The warmest indices will be over 
the western areas mainly Saturday,which will decrease in coverage on 
Sunday. So will maintain the heat risk in the HWO for Friday through 
Sunday. Models indicate that some strong storms will be possible on 
Saturday into Saturday night with northwest flow aloft. We will have 
0-3km winds of around 35 knots, Vertical totals in the lower 30s in 
the north,a frontal passage for lift, and good lapse rates. CAM 
guidance shows a good line passing in the TN valley to the north and 
east , along with isolated activity across our area. SPC has a 
marginal risk for our eastern areas, since we have a severe risk for 
today will hold off on that for the graphics for now. As we push 
through the weekend the axis of the upper trough will spread over 
the remainder of the region by Sunday. An associated upper low will 
with another frontal boundary will push south across the Lower 
Mississippi Valley On Wednesday. The weak closed low will wash out 
over the SE Conus as upper flat ridging takes over. This will keep 
rain chances across the region for the upcoming workweek with our 
soupy airmass.

As far as temperatures are concern beyond this weekend with the 
frontal passage readings will tone back to mainly from the upper 80s 
to the lower 90s. Lows will be in the lower to middle 70s./17/

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For MARION County
500 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018
MCCOMB         FAIR      77  74  90 W6        29.90F                  
NATCHEZ        FAIR      78  76  93 SW5       29.91S                  
PINE BELT      MOCLDY    74  73  97 CALM      29.94R                  

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Mississippi
Based on observations at 500am CDT, Friday July 20, 2018

Across Mississippi...temperatures are near 77 degrees north, near 74 degrees central, and near 75 degrees south. Current sky conditions are fair north, fair central, and fair south. In the north, relative humidity is near 90%, and the dew point is near 74 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 100%, and the dew point is near 74 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 95%, and the dew point is near 74 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is no stress north, no stress central, and no stress south. Winds are from the southeast at 6 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 79 degrees at Vicksburg. The lowest temperature is 74 degrees at Pinebelt, Jackson International Airport, Jackson Hawkins Field, and Hattiesburg.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For MARION County,MS

412 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

 DAY ONE  Today and Tonight  

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT  Elevated
TIMING  Today through Tonight

High temperatures from the mid to upper 90s will combine with 
high humidity levels to produce heat indices from 105 to 110 
this afternoon. Precautions should be taken to avoid strenuous 
outdoor activities. Check on those vulnerable to heat stress. Stay
hydrated and wear light, loose fitted clothing.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Saturday through Thursday  

High temperatures from the mid to upper 90s will combine with 
high humidity levels to produce heat indices 105 to 110 each
afternoon through Monday. Precautions should be taken to avoid 
strenuous outdoor activities. Check on those vulnerable to heat 
stress. Stay hydrated and wear light, loose fitted clothing.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

 SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT  
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Thursday.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook


7-Day Forecast For MARION County, MS
403 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018


HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING

TODAY
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. Highs in the mid 90s. West winds around 5 mph. Heat index readings 102 to 107.

TONIGHT
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s. Southwest winds around 5 mph.

SATURDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 90s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Highest heat index readings around 110 in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY
Sunny. Highs in the upper 90s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s.

MONDAY
Sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 90s.

MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s.

TUESDAY
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 90s.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

WEDNESDAY
Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. The chance of rain 50 percent.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.

THURSDAY
Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. The chance of rain 50 percent.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


Medium & Long Range Outlook For Mississippi
                          MISSISSIPPI                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   JUL 25-29 JUL 27-AUG 2    JUL       JUL-SEP                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Below        Below      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Below      Below                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Friday July 20, 2018 the 201th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination 20.470000
Distance 0.999716 AU
Rise 07:08 EDT Set 21:06 EDT
Transit Meridian 14:07 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:42 EDT Ends 21:32 EDT

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

////////////////////////
JULY 20TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1930...
The temperature at Washington D.C. soared to an all-time record of 106
degrees. The next day Millsboro reached 110 degrees to set a record for the
state of Delaware. July 1930 was one of the hottest and driest summers in
the U.S., particularly in the Missouri Valley where severe drought
conditions developed. Toward the end of the month state records were set
for Kentucky with 114 degrees, and Mississippi with 115 degrees. (David
Ludlum)
...1934...
The temperature at Keokuk IA soared to 118 degrees to establish a state
record. (The Weather Channel)
...1953...
Twenty-two inches of hail reportedly fell northeast of Dickinson ND. (The
Weather Channel)
...1986...
The temperature at Charleston SC hit 104 degrees for the second day in a
row to tie their all-time record high. (The Weather Channel)
...1987...
Thunderstorms produced severe weather across Minnesota, Wisconsin and
Michigan. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 87 mph at Mosinee WI, and
strong thunderstorm winds capsized twenty-six boats on Grand Traverse Bay
drowning two women. Thunderstorms produced nine inches of rain at Shakopee
MN, with 7.83 inches reported in six hours at Chaska MN. Thunderstorms in
north central Nebraska produced hail as large as golf balls in southwestern
Cherry County, which accumulated to a depth of 12 inches. (The National
Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1988...
The temperature at Redding CA soared to an all-time record high of 118
degrees. Showers and thunderstorms produced much needed rains from New
England to southern Texas. Salem IN was deluged with 7.2 inches of rain
resulting in flash flooding. (The National Weather Summary)
...1989...
Showers and thunderstorms in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region soaked
Wilmington DE with 2.28 inches of rain, pushing their total for the period
May through July past the previous record of 22.43 inches. Heavy rain over
that three month period virtually wiped out a 16.82 inch deficit which had
been building since drought conditions began in 1985. Thunderstorms in
central Indiana deluged Lebanon with 6.50 inches of rain in twelve hours,
and thunderstorms over Florida produced wind gusts to 84 mph at Flagler
Beach. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky