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Hancock County, MS Weather and Climate Synopsis

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US Weekly Rainfall Departure



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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.

443 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

As anticipated, a large area of rain and embedded thunderstorms 
is moving across the ArkLaMiss early this morning in association 
with a quick-moving shortwave trough. Anomalous precipitable water
in excess of 1.5 inches is supporting heavy downpours, and at 
least a few locations will receive over an inch of rainfall in 
spite of the progressive nature of the system. Guidance has sped 
up some with the exit of the better large scale ascent by this 
afternoon, and have adjusted the forecast accordingly. However, 
expect periods of rainfall to be possible from later tonight into 
Monday as moisture convergence and subtle perturbations in the 
large scale flow help to reinitiate shower/tstm activity, 
especially for locations along/south of the I-20 corridor. 
Otherwise, milder temperatures can be expected, especially tonight
when lows should be near 15 degrees above normal. /EC/

An active late December weather pattern will continue to divulge 
through the mid and long term portions of the forecast. This next 
seven days could be the wettest we've experienced in quite some time 
in the ArkLaMiss. WPC 7 day QPF totals are in excess of 6" in 
portions of the Delta and range from 2" upwards elsewhere. If this 
forecast holds true, it will undoubtedly put a significant dent in 
our current drought and help erase some of the yearly rainfall 
deficits at some sites and add to the surplus at others before the 
year ends.

A very moist airmass will exist over the ArkLaMiss on Monday through 
Tuesday as the persistent upper level SW flow pattern and low level 
southerly flow result in Pwats near their climatological maxes. 
Significant rain chances will persist through the early week period. 
The best chances for storms will exist on Tuesday through early 
Wednesday as a surface front that is associated with a closed upper 
low that will begin to cross the southern Plains and approach our 
region, swings through the region. Southerly flow will increase 
ahead of this frontal passage and the GFS is pretty aggressive with 
atmospheric destabilization ahead of the front, depicting CAPE 
values ranging from 400-1200 j/kg Tuesday afternoon through 
Wednesday morning. A few strong storms could be possible during this 
period but it will depend heavily on clearing ahead of and the 
timing of the frontal passage. Drier air will begin to filter into 
the region by late Wednesday after the front has swept through the 
area. Another, deeper, cutoff low will approach the region later in 
the work week, pushing another front through the region, which 
will once again lead to increased rainfall chances on Friday into 
Saturday. 

Although model similitude begins to decrease as we get closer to the 
weekend, they have come into better agreement than previous runs, as 
they continue to depict a weather situation over the holiday period 
that definitely warrants cognizance. Confidence is still too low to 
mention any solutions just yet, but hopefully we will be able to 
better gauge solutions or possible impacts in subsequent
forecasts. /JPM3/

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

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Regional Hourly Observations For HANCOCK County
500 AM CST SUN DEC 17 2017
PASCAGOULA     CLOUDY    63  59  87 SE9       30.13R                  

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Mississippi
Based on observations at 500am CST, Sunday December 17, 2017

Across Mississippi...temperatures are near 40 degrees north, near 53 degrees central, and near 64 degrees south. Current sky conditions are rain north, light rain central, and cloudy south. In the north, relative humidity is near 86%, and the dew point is near 36 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 89%, and the dew point is near 50 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 88%, and the dew point is near 61 degrees. Winds are from the north at 7 mph north, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to rain. Winds are from the west at 7 mph central, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to light rain. Winds are from the southeast at 13 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category north, no stress category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 64 degrees at Biloxi. The lowest temperature is 40 degrees at Tupelo.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For HANCOCK County,MS

440 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

 DAY ONE  Today and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect this morning for most of the 
open Gulf coastal waters. 

A marginal risk of severe weather is forecast today for areas
mainly south of I-10 in Southeast Louisiana. Although severe is
not expected there is a small risk for one or two storms to
exhibit rotation which could drop a quick tornado or two however
this threat is very low. 

Light to moderate rain is expected with a few briefs moments of 
heavy rain which could lead to ponding of water in low lying and 
poorly draining areas. 

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Monday through Saturday

Showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible Monday 
through Wednesday. An extended period of persistent light to 
moderate rainfall from Monday through Early Wednesday may result 
in a few inches of rain accumulation over the three day period. 
This may result in localized ponding of water and even flash 
flooding in low lying or poorly drained areas at times. 

Although not currently outlooked for severe weather there could 
be a few strong storms associated with the next cold front early 
Wednesday. 

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook


7-Day Forecast For HANCOCK County, MS
317 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

TODAY
Showers in the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. South winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

TONIGHT
Cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Patchy fog in the evening, then areas of fog after midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Southeast winds to 5 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

MONDAY
Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 70. Southeast winds to 5 mph. Chance of showers 70 percent.

MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers. Lows in the lower 60s. Southeast winds to 5 mph.

TUESDAY
Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the mid 70s. South winds to 5 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy with chance of showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

WEDNESDAY
Partly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of showers 60 percent.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Cooler. Partly cloudy. Lows around 50.

THURSDAY
Sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs around 70.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.

FRIDAY
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the lower 70s.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of showers 70 percent.

SATURDAY
Cooler. Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain showers. Highs around 60.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


Medium & Long Range Outlook For Mississippi
                          MISSISSIPPI                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   DEC 22-26    DEC 24-30    DEC       DEC-FEB                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Below        Below      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Below      Below                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Sunday December 17, 2017 the 351th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination -23.380000
Distance 0.999725 AU
Rise 07:56 EST Set 17:58 EST
Transit Meridian 12:57 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:30 EST Ends 18:25 EST

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

DECEMBER 17TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1884...
A three week blockade of snow began at Portland OR. A record December total
of 34 inches was received. (David Ludlum)
...1924...
A severe icestorm struck central Illinois. It coated the ground with nearly
two inches of glaze at Springfield. The storm caused 21 million dollars
damage along with much hardship. Ice was on the trees until the 4th of
January, and electricity was not restored until January 10th. (David
Ludlum)
...1929...
An icestorm in western New York State resulted in much damage and hardship.
A Buffalo report stated, "one was kept awake by the breaking limbs, which
snapped off with a report much louder than a rifle shot." (17th-18th) (The
Weather Channel)
...1987...
A storm in the southwestern U.S. brought heavy rain and heavy snow to parts
of California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah and New Mexico. Charleston NV was
blanketed with 12 inches of snow. Lake Havasu City AZ was drenched with
2.26 inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
...1988...
Squalls brought locally heavy snow to the southeastern shores of Lake
Michigan. Totals in Michigan ranged up to 14 inches at Harvey. Totals in
Ohio ranged up to 16 inches at Chardon. (The National Weather Summary)
(Storm Data)
...1989...
Twenty-one cities from Kentucky to Pennsylvania reported record low
temperatures for the date, including Columbus OH with a reading of 12
degrees below zero. Heavy snow continued in the Colorado Rockies. Vail
received 65 inches of snow between the 14th and the 18th of December.
Steamboat Springs was buried under 74 inches, and reported a total of 108
inches of snow between the 10th and the 18th of the month. (The National
Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky