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George County, MS Weather and Climate Synopsis

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36 Hr. Forecast Map
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Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts





US Weekly Rainfall Departure



US Weekly Temperature Departure
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.

438 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday:

Widespread rain is expected to develop after midnight tonight in 
the west and spread east through the day Sunday. Mid afternoon 
surface analysis had 1026MB high over southern Alabama and a 
1015mb low just off the south Texas coast. Mid afternoon water 
vapor imagery/RAP analysis had a closed low spinning over west 
Texas. This closed low will lift rapidly to the northeast tonight 
and Sunday opening up and weakening through the period. As the 
closed low lifts up through the southern plains tonight the 
surface low will track east northeast along the Gulf coast and 
across our southern zones Sunday. WAA will strengthen tonight and
increase deep moisture across our region ahead of this system. 
Instability still looks to remain limited to our south through 
Sunday but considering the expected shear across our CWA Sunday a 
few severe storms will be possible across our southeast most 
zones. The main timing looks to be from mid morning to mid 
afternoon with the threat waining before evening as the system 
shifts east of Mississippi. The main threat will be damaging winds
but a brief tornado or two will also be possible. Our northeast 
may dip into the 30s tonight but thanks to the moisture increase 
and cloud cover, most sights will bottom out in the 40s. Our 
northeast will remain the cool spot Sunday with highs in the 50s 
while elsewhere sights will climb into the 60s despite the cloud 
cover and rainfall. /22/

Sunday Night through Saturday:

With the predominant synoptic pattern for the week ahead featuring
an upper-level ridge over the southeastern U.S. and a trough 
generally extending from the Upper Midwest toward West Texas, the
ArkLaMiss region will spend most of the week in a favorable
position to get a few rounds of rainfall. Sunday night through 
Tuesday night, synoptic scale lift beneath the right entrance
region of the jet stream and moist southerly flow in the low 
levels should boost PWAT values up to 1.5 inches or above across 
our area. Those values are near the climatological max for this 
time of year, which when combined with a west-east stationary 
frontal boundary across our area, will result in locally heavy 
rain rates. The axis of greatest rain potential is expected to 
gradually shift northward from the Pine Belt and southern 
Mississippi Sunday Night to northern Louisiana and northern 
Mississippi by Tuesday and Tuesday night. Thunderstorms cannot be 
ruled out during this period, but such a moist vertical profile 
would suggest that thunderstorm chances will be primarily in the 
less stable airmass south of the surface boundary. Total rainfall 
amounts could approach 3 to 4 inches, especially across areas 
north of I-20.

By Wednesday, the upper low to our west looks to fill and get
picked up by the jet stream, ushering a surface low pressure
system and weak cold front through our region. Most notably, some
drier air and a lull in rain chances will return. Then attention 
all across the country turns to a developing western CONUS trough 
taking shape by the latter half of next week. Model spread 
increases during that time period, leading to some uncertainty in 
the finer details of the forecast. The latest GFS and CMC 
solutions indicate a deep, slow-moving trough slowly edging 
eastward in the days leading up to Christmas. The ECMWF features a
broader upper trough with a lead shortwave swinging across the 
Mississippi River valley by Friday night. Regardless, some period 
of increased rain chances and potentially heavy rain will return 
to our forecast area by Friday. How long the wet pattern lingers, 
and to what degree the colder airmass interacts with this moisture
is still to be determined. For this forecast, the slower GFS 
solution was favored, keeping precip chances into Christmas Eve 
and precip type as all rain through that time period. Stay tuned 
for updates as the forecast at this time of year is certain to 
change at least a few times as all the details come into better 
focus. /NF/



National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For GEORGE County
400 PM CST SAT DEC 16 2017

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Mississippi
Based on observations at 400pm CST, Saturday December 16, 2017

Across Mississippi...temperatures are near 50 degrees north, near 57 degrees central, and near 53 degrees south. Current sky conditions are cloudy north, mostly cloudy central, and cloudy south. In the north, relative humidity is near 42%, and the dew point is near 28 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 33%, and the dew point is near 28 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 59%, and the dew point is near 39 degrees. Winds are from the southeast at 10 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the east at 3 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southeast at 6 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category north, no stress category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 59 degrees at Vicksburg. The lowest temperature is 50 degrees at Tupelo.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For GEORGE County,MS

557 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

 DAY ONE  Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Sunday through Friday

A warm front will move north across the area Sunday, bringing
increasing instability and moisture. Isolated strong to severe
storms are possible Sunday afternoon through Monday. Damaging
winds are the greatest threat with the stronger storms. 

Rainfall amounts for Sunday into Tuesday night will average 2 to
three inches. With embedded strong thunderstorms mixing in, local
rainfall amounts of up to two inches could create ponding of water
in low lying areas, especially west of the Alabama and Tensaw
Rivers.

With moderate onshore flow of warmer Gulf air over cooler near-
shore waters, an increasing coverage of fog Sunday and MOnday
nights is possible, with some localities seeing visibilities
dropping below one mile.

There is a moderate risk for rip currents along area beaches 
Sunday through Tuesday.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks is not
expected through Friday.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook


7-Day Forecast For GEORGE County, MS
355 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

TONIGHT
Not as cool. Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.

SUNDAY
Warmer, cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the morning, then rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Warmer, cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Areas of fog through the night. Near steady temperature in the lower 60s. South winds up to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

MONDAY
Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds up to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

MONDAY NIGHT
Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds up to 5 mph.

TUESDAY
Mostly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Near steady temperature in the mid 60s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

WEDNESDAY
Partly sunny. Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Cooler. Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.

THURSDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers. Lows in the mid 50s.

FRIDAY
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain showers. Highs around 70.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain showers. Lows in the lower 50s.

SATURDAY
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the lower 60s.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


Medium & Long Range Outlook For Mississippi
                          MISSISSIPPI                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   DEC 22-26    DEC 24-30    DEC       DEC-FEB                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Below        Below      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Below      Below                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Saturday December 16, 2017 the 350th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination -23.350000
Distance 0.999725 AU
Rise 07:56 EST Set 17:58 EST
Transit Meridian 12:56 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:29 EST Ends 18:24 EST

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

DECEMBER 16TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1835...
New England experienced one of their coldest days of record. At noon on
that bitterly cold Wednesday the mercury stood at four degrees below at
Boston, 15 degrees below at Norfolk CT, and 17 degrees below at Hanover NH.
The temperature at Boston was 12 degrees below zero by sunset. Gale force
winds accompanied the severe cold, and that night a great New York City
fire destroyed much of the financial district. (David Ludlum)
...1869...
A bill was introduced in the House of Representatives, 41st Congress, 
calling for the taking [of] meteorological observations at the military 
stations in the interior of the continent, and for giving notice on the 
northern lakes and Atlantic seaboard of the approach and force of storms. 
This would be signed in to law February 9, 1870, by President Grant, 
establishing what would come to be called the National Weather Service. You 
can see the actual bill on-line at: 
 here.
...1917...
An ice jam closed the Ohio River between Warsaw KY and Rising Sun IN. The
thirty foot high ice jam held for 58 days, and backed up the river a
distance of 100 miles. (David Ludlum)
...1987...
A Pacific storm battered the coast of California with rain and high winds,
and dumped heavy snow on the mountains of California. Winds along the coast
gusted to 70 mph at Point Arguello, and winds in the Tehachapi Mountains of
southern California gusted to 100 mph at Wheeler Ridge. Snowfall totals
ranged up to 24 inches at Mammoth Mountain. Snow fell for two minutes at
Malibu Beach, and Disneyland was closed due to the weather for only the
second time in twenty-four years. A winter storm which began in the
Southern Rockies four days earlier finished its course producing snow and
high winds in New England. Snowfall totals ranged up to 19 inches at
Blanchard ME. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1988...
Fairbanks AK reported freezing rain and record warm temperatures. The
afternoon high of 41 degrees was 43 degrees above normal. Snow and high
winds continued to plague the mountains of southern California. Mount
Wilson CA reported two inches of rain in six hours during the early
morning, and a storm total of more than 3.50 inches of rain. (The National
Weather Summary)
...1989...
Fifty-seven cities from the Southern and Central Plains to the Appalachians
reported record low temperatures for the date, including North Platte NE
with a reading of 17 degrees below zero. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region
produced 18 inches of snow at Syracuse NY, and 30 inches at Carlisle IND.
Low pressure brought heavy snow to northern New England, with 18 inches
reported at Derby VT and Saint Johnsbury VT. (The National Weather Summary)
(Storm Data)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky