A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
353 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019
Through tomorrow afternoon:
Clouds briefly cleared out enough this afternoon in southern zones
to allow shallow chilly air to mix out, thus delivering highs
ranging from the upper 50s to near 70 there. Elsewhere,
unfortunately the low clouds did not allow for any warming air
aloft to mix to the surface and temperatures have struggled to
respond upwards in the wake of the cold front which passed through
early this morning.
But the warming aloft is a precursor to an actual surface warm
front that will be sliding back north through the region tonight.
Therefore, many locations (especially in northern zones) will
experience temperatures and moisture rising through the night.
Often these situations result in a widespread "mixing" fog and,
indeed, some fog is anticipated, particularly south of I-20.
However, thickening of clouds aloft and influx of light
precipitation later tonight in many areas will likely keep fog
from realizing its full potential. The next shift will monitor the
fog situation closely, but at this point the expectation of
minimal dense fog risk will not necessitate us including mention
in the HWO or graphics.
Late tonight through tomorrow, the southern fringe of a few upper
level disturbances will glance the region and instigate gradually
increasing shower chances. There are global model discrepancies
regarding evolution of particulars through tomorrow, but the
ECMWF, EPS, and HREF suggest the warm sector in the wake of the
mentioned overnight warm frontal passage will have enough of a
time window to really warm things up tomorrow before the
baroclinic zone (in the form of another cold front) pushes
southeast through the region late. Forecasted high temps on the
warm side of guidance for areas along and southeast of the Natchez
Trace corridor in expectation of a slower cold frontal
progression than the GFS and this could deliver a max temp near 80
in HBG (where, coincidentally, most of the showers should hold
off until late in the afternoon). /BB/
Sunday night through next week...
A very active and wet pattern will commence as we get into the
workweek. Several threats will develop but flash flooding and
river flooding stand out as the primary threats.
As we get into into Sunday night, a cold front that will stretch
from the the east coast to the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
move through the region, leading to scattered shower activity. By
Monday afternoon, the front will be well south of the area as
drier air and high pressure filter in from the north. A deepening
trough over the Southwest US and increasing upper heights over the
East Coast will lead to increasing upper level flow from the SW
over the lower MS River Valley. Rain chances will begin to
increase from the south on Monday night as the front moves back
north into the region and the SW flow aloft helps to increase
moisture values. The surface boundary will soon stall near our
region and serve as a focus for rainfall over the next few days.
A surface low associated with a weak disturbance embedded in the
SW flow aloft will form and begin to enter the region from the SW
on Tuesday. This will help to increase rain rates on Tuesday and
into Wednesday. Some marginal instability will develop south of
the parked frontal boundary by Tuesday night and through
Wednesday. This will lead to better chances of thunderstorms
mainly south of I-20 through the period. As of now the better
chances of flash flooding on Tuesday through Thursday stretch from
the Golden Triangle over into the ArkLaMiss Delta where heavy
rainfall will be more persistent. Expect 3" to 6" of rainfall in
this region on Tuesday through Thursday with some localized higher
amounts possible. Elsewhere, 1" to 3" of rainfall is possible.
Rivers will begin to rise throughout the region as rainfall totals
begin to add up. The river systems that can expect the greatest
flood potential are the Tombigbee, Big Black, Pearl, an upper
portions of the Pascagoula.
The upper flow regime and surface boundary are not expected to
make any progress as we get closer to next weekend. The threat of
flooding is expected to extend at least into the weekend as heavy
rain continues to fall over the ArkLaMiss and rivers continue to
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For ALCORN County
600 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2019
CORINTH CLOUDY 39 34 81 CALM 29.89F
GOLDN TRIANGLE CLOUDY 44 41 89 N5 29.88S
STARKVILLE CLOUDY 43 39 87 NE5 29.88S
TUPELO CLOUDY 41 35 79 N3 29.88R
6HR MIN TEMP: 39; 6HR MAX TEMP: 41;
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Mississippi
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For ALCORN County,MS
532 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019
DAY ONE Today and Tonight
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Sunday through Friday
Heavy rainfall is possible mainly south of I-40 across portions
of West Tennessee and Northeast Mississippi Monday night through
late next week.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For ALCORN County, MS
538 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019
A chance of rain in the evening, then showers likely
after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Southeast
winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
SUNDAY Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers
in the afternoon. Cloudy. Highs around 60. Southwest winds around
5 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
SUNDAY NIGHT A 30 percent chance of rain in the evening.
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 50s.
North winds 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT A slight chance of rain in the evening, then a
chance of rain after midnight. Cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
TUESDAY Showers. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of rain
TUESDAY NIGHT Rain. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of rain near
WEDNESDAY Showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Highs around
60. Chance of rain 80 percent.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT Showers likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Chance of
rain 60 percent.
THURSDAY Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain
THURSDAY NIGHT Showers likely. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance
of rain 60 percent.
FRIDAY Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the mid 60s.
FRIDAY NIGHT Showers likely. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of
rain 60 percent.
SATURDAY Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the lower
70s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Mississippi
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
FEB 22-26 FEB 24-MAR 2 FEB FEB-APR
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Above Above Above Below
Precipitation: Above Above Above Normal
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Saturday February 16, 2019 the 47th Day of Year
Distance 0.999723 AU
Rise 07:42 EST Set 18:48 EST
Transit Meridian 13:14 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:18 EST Ends 19:12 EST
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
Washington D.C. received 1.26 inches of rain in six hours atop a snow cover
more than 30 inches deep making it the soggiest day of record. (Sandra and
TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
The temperature at Pokegama Dam MN plunged to 59 degrees below zero to
establish a state record. (David Ludlum)
Record cold prevailed in the northeastern U.S. The mercury plunged to 43
degrees below zero at Concord NH, and to -39 degrees at Portland ME. The
morning low of -32 degrees at Falls Village CT established a state record,
yet the afternoon high that day was 20 degrees above zero. (David Ludlum)
(The Weather Channel)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky