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West Carroll Parish, LA Weather and Climate Synopsis

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36 Hr. Forecast Map
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Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts

US Weekly Rainfall Departure

US Weekly Temperature Departure
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.

National Weather Service Shreveport LA
157 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday Night/

Complicated short term forecast with a cold airmass which has
settled in across the Four State Region today with rain/drizzle 
and/or areas of fog developing overnight ahead of a cold front 
moving across the region on Sunday. 

The cold front which allowed for the much cooler temperatures
across the Four State Region today has settled along the S LA and
SE TX Gulf Coast this afternoon. This boundary will begin to
slowly creep northward overnight and may make it into our extreme
southern and southeast zones by sunrise Sunday Morning before a
cold front meets up with the boundary during the day Sunday,
pushing the warm frontal boundary back south and east of our
region by Sunday Afternoon. 

Looking aloft, southwest flow will continue across the Southern
Plains/Lower Miss Valley during the short term and with ripples
headed our way in this flow and warm air overrunning the shallow
cold airmass in place, this will set the stage for isentropic
forcing and the development of light rain and/or drizzle overnight
along with areas of fog across much of the region before the cold
front pushes all of this precipitation south and east of our
region by midday Sunday. A dense fog advisory may be necessary for
at least a portion of our region later tonight if the fog becomes
widespread but will defer this to later shifts. The isentropic
lift process started earlier than the progs had suggested as 
indicated by the light rain across the northern two thirds of our 
region today and look for coverage to continue increasing as we go
through the night. 

Temperatures are tricky, not only tonight but through the day
Sunday as well. May actually see temperatures warm a few degrees
overnight, especially as the warm frontal boundary nudges
northward with weak cold air advection allowing temperatures to
fall slightly Sunday Morning before we see some recovery by
afternoon. If we see any partial clearing across our western half
Sunday Afternoon, temperatures may warm a little more than this
forecast indicates. 

While we dry out Sunday into Sunday Night, overnight lows Sunday
Night will depend greatly on how much cloud cover remains across
the region. Hedged lows closer to the colder NAM MOS output given
that we should keep at least weak cold air advection in place
during this timeframe. 


.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday/

A long wave trough develops over the desert SW for the new work week 
next Monday.  This development is favorable for unsettled weather as 
short wave troughs eject from the long wave and spread rainfall 
across the SE US.  At this time, appears the best inflow into the 
first shortwave trough passage appears to remain E into AL, TN, MS, 
and GA where heavy rainfall is quite possible.

By late next week, the W trough finally ejects and deepens as well 
as becoming negatively tilted with severe weather quite possible 
during next weekend.


National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.

Hourly Observations For WEST CARROLL Parish
500 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2019

BASTROP        CLOUDY    42  41  96 E6        29.81F                  
TALLULAH/VBURG CLOUDY    46  40  79 NE9       29.82F                  
VIDALIA        CLOUDY    50  43  75 N12       29.77F                  

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Louisiana

Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this Parish will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For WEST CARROLL County, LA

243 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

 DAY ONE  Tonight and Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Sunday night through Friday

Persistent rainfall, heavy at times, could produce flash flooding
and river flooding from Tuesday through Thursday as a frontal 
system hangs up over the region. Rainfall totals will range from
3" to 6" in the elevated threat area and 1" to 3" in limited threat
area. Some locations could see some isolated heavier amounts. 
Rivers may approach minor to moderate flood stages. The weather 
pattern looks to stick around as we get closer to the weekend and 
more rain is expected beyond Thursday. 


The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Friday.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For WEST CARROLL Parish, LA
244 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Mostly cloudy. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. East winds around 5 mph. The chance of rain 60 percent.

Cloudy with chance of showers. Warmer. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. The chance of rain 40 percent.

A 30 percent chance of light rain in the evening. Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

Partly cloudy. Cooler. Highs in the lower 50s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Slight chance of light rain in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. The chance of rain 50 percent.

Showers likely. Cloudy. Highs in the lower 50s. The chance of rain 60 percent.

Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and a chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. The chance of rain 80 percent.

Showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s. The chance of rain 80 percent.

Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. The chance of rain 60 percent.

Showers likely. Cloudy. Highs in the mid 50s. The chance of rain 70 percent.

Showers likely. Cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. The chance of rain 70 percent.

Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 60s. The chance of rain 60 percent.

Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. The chance of rain 60 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy. Highs around 70. The chance of rain 60 percent.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

WEST CARROLL County, Louisiana Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory

Current Weather Advisory is NOT available

Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps:Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Louisiana

                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   FEB 22-26 FEB 24-MAR 2    FEB       FEB-APR                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above      Above     Normal                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Above     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Saturday February 16, 2019 the 47th Day of Year

Declination -12.060000
Distance 0.999723 AU
Rise 07:49 EST Set 18:56 EST
Transit Meridian 13:21 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:25 EST Ends 19:20 EST

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

Washington D.C. received 1.26 inches of rain in six hours atop a snow cover
more than 30 inches deep making it the soggiest day of record. (Sandra and
TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
The temperature at Pokegama Dam MN plunged to 59 degrees below zero to
establish a state record. (David Ludlum)
Record cold prevailed in the northeastern U.S. The mercury plunged to 43
degrees below zero at Concord NH, and to -39 degrees at Portland ME. The
morning low of -32 degrees at Falls Village CT established a state record,
yet the afternoon high that day was 20 degrees above zero. (David Ludlum)
(The Weather Channel)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky