A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
National Weather Service Shreveport LA 157 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday Night/ Complicated short term forecast with a cold airmass which has settled in across the Four State Region today with rain/drizzle and/or areas of fog developing overnight ahead of a cold front moving across the region on Sunday. The cold front which allowed for the much cooler temperatures across the Four State Region today has settled along the S LA and SE TX Gulf Coast this afternoon. This boundary will begin to slowly creep northward overnight and may make it into our extreme southern and southeast zones by sunrise Sunday Morning before a cold front meets up with the boundary during the day Sunday, pushing the warm frontal boundary back south and east of our region by Sunday Afternoon. Looking aloft, southwest flow will continue across the Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley during the short term and with ripples headed our way in this flow and warm air overrunning the shallow cold airmass in place, this will set the stage for isentropic forcing and the development of light rain and/or drizzle overnight along with areas of fog across much of the region before the cold front pushes all of this precipitation south and east of our region by midday Sunday. A dense fog advisory may be necessary for at least a portion of our region later tonight if the fog becomes widespread but will defer this to later shifts. The isentropic lift process started earlier than the progs had suggested as indicated by the light rain across the northern two thirds of our region today and look for coverage to continue increasing as we go through the night. Temperatures are tricky, not only tonight but through the day Sunday as well. May actually see temperatures warm a few degrees overnight, especially as the warm frontal boundary nudges northward with weak cold air advection allowing temperatures to fall slightly Sunday Morning before we see some recovery by afternoon. If we see any partial clearing across our western half Sunday Afternoon, temperatures may warm a little more than this forecast indicates. While we dry out Sunday into Sunday Night, overnight lows Sunday Night will depend greatly on how much cloud cover remains across the region. Hedged lows closer to the colder NAM MOS output given that we should keep at least weak cold air advection in place during this timeframe. 13 .LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday/ A long wave trough develops over the desert SW for the new work week next Monday. This development is favorable for unsettled weather as short wave troughs eject from the long wave and spread rainfall across the SE US. At this time, appears the best inflow into the first shortwave trough passage appears to remain E into AL, TN, MS, and GA where heavy rainfall is quite possible. By late next week, the W trough finally ejects and deepens as well as becoming negatively tilted with severe weather quite possible during next weekend. 08National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]
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Hourly Observations For WEST CARROLL Parish
500 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2019
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BASTROP CLOUDY 42 41 96 E6 29.81F TALLULAH/VBURG CLOUDY 46 40 79 NE9 29.82F VIDALIA CLOUDY 50 43 75 N12 29.77F
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Louisiana
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this Parish will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For WEST CARROLL County, LA
243 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019 DAY ONE Tonight and Sunday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Sunday night through Friday Persistent rainfall, heavy at times, could produce flash flooding and river flooding from Tuesday through Thursday as a frontal system hangs up over the region. Rainfall totals will range from 3" to 6" in the elevated threat area and 1" to 3" in limited threat area. Some locations could see some isolated heavier amounts. Rivers may approach minor to moderate flood stages. The weather pattern looks to stick around as we get closer to the weekend and more rain is expected beyond Thursday. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Friday.
7-Day Forecast For WEST CARROLL Parish, LA
244 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019
THROUGH EARLY EVENING TONIGHT SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY
WEST CARROLL County, Louisiana Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Current Weather Advisory is NOT available
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps:Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Louisiana
LOUISIANA --------------------------------------------- 6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY FEB 22-26 FEB 24-MAR 2 FEB FEB-APR ----------- ----------- -------- --------- Temperature: Above Above Above Normal Precipitation: Above Above Above Normal .... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Saturday February 16, 2019 the 47th Day of Year --------------------------------------------------- SUN Declination -12.060000 Distance 0.999723 AU Rise 07:49 EST Set 18:56 EST Transit Meridian 13:21 EST Civil Twilight Begins 07:25 EST Ends 19:20 EST Calculations made for central point in the state. Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
FEBRUARY 16TH HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS ...1899... Washington D.C. received 1.26 inches of rain in six hours atop a snow cover more than 30 inches deep making it the soggiest day of record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) ...1903... The temperature at Pokegama Dam MN plunged to 59 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (David Ludlum) ...1943... Record cold prevailed in the northeastern U.S. The mercury plunged to 43 degrees below zero at Concord NH, and to -39 degrees at Portland ME. The morning low of -32 degrees at Falls Village CT established a state record, yet the afternoon high that day was 20 degrees above zero. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky