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St.John the Baptist Parish, LA Weather and Climate Synopsis

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US Weekly Rainfall Departure



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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.


National Weather Service Shreveport LA
157 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday Night/

Complicated short term forecast with a cold airmass which has
settled in across the Four State Region today with rain/drizzle 
and/or areas of fog developing overnight ahead of a cold front 
moving across the region on Sunday. 

The cold front which allowed for the much cooler temperatures
across the Four State Region today has settled along the S LA and
SE TX Gulf Coast this afternoon. This boundary will begin to
slowly creep northward overnight and may make it into our extreme
southern and southeast zones by sunrise Sunday Morning before a
cold front meets up with the boundary during the day Sunday,
pushing the warm frontal boundary back south and east of our
region by Sunday Afternoon. 

Looking aloft, southwest flow will continue across the Southern
Plains/Lower Miss Valley during the short term and with ripples
headed our way in this flow and warm air overrunning the shallow
cold airmass in place, this will set the stage for isentropic
forcing and the development of light rain and/or drizzle overnight
along with areas of fog across much of the region before the cold
front pushes all of this precipitation south and east of our
region by midday Sunday. A dense fog advisory may be necessary for
at least a portion of our region later tonight if the fog becomes
widespread but will defer this to later shifts. The isentropic
lift process started earlier than the progs had suggested as 
indicated by the light rain across the northern two thirds of our 
region today and look for coverage to continue increasing as we go
through the night. 

Temperatures are tricky, not only tonight but through the day
Sunday as well. May actually see temperatures warm a few degrees
overnight, especially as the warm frontal boundary nudges
northward with weak cold air advection allowing temperatures to
fall slightly Sunday Morning before we see some recovery by
afternoon. If we see any partial clearing across our western half
Sunday Afternoon, temperatures may warm a little more than this
forecast indicates. 

While we dry out Sunday into Sunday Night, overnight lows Sunday
Night will depend greatly on how much cloud cover remains across
the region. Hedged lows closer to the colder NAM MOS output given
that we should keep at least weak cold air advection in place
during this timeframe. 

13

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday/

A long wave trough develops over the desert SW for the new work week 
next Monday.  This development is favorable for unsettled weather as 
short wave troughs eject from the long wave and spread rainfall 
across the SE US.  At this time, appears the best inflow into the 
first shortwave trough passage appears to remain E into AL, TN, MS, 
and GA where heavy rainfall is quite possible.

By late next week, the W trough finally ejects and deepens as well 
as becoming negatively tilted with severe weather quite possible 
during next weekend.

08

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.

Regional Hourly Observations For ST.JOHN THE BAPTIST County

SWR not available
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Surface 4-Panel
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Louisiana


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this Parish will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For ST.JOHN THE BAPTIST County
Hazardous report currently not available
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

Current FORECAST not available 12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

ST.JOHN THE BAPTIST County, Louisiana Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory

Current Weather Advisory is NOT available

Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps:Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Louisiana

                            LOUISIANA                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   FEB 22-26 FEB 24-MAR 2    FEB       FEB-APR                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above      Above     Normal                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Above     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Saturday February 16, 2019 the 47th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination -12.060000
Distance 0.999723 AU
Rise 07:49 EST Set 18:56 EST
Transit Meridian 13:21 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:25 EST Ends 19:20 EST

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

FEBRUARY 16TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1899...
Washington D.C. received 1.26 inches of rain in six hours atop a snow cover
more than 30 inches deep making it the soggiest day of record. (Sandra and
TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
...1903...
The temperature at Pokegama Dam MN plunged to 59 degrees below zero to
establish a state record. (David Ludlum)
...1943...
Record cold prevailed in the northeastern U.S. The mercury plunged to 43
degrees below zero at Concord NH, and to -39 degrees at Portland ME. The
morning low of -32 degrees at Falls Village CT established a state record,
yet the afternoon high that day was 20 degrees above zero. (David Ludlum)
(The Weather Channel)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky