A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
National Weather Service Shreveport LA 425 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 .DISCUSSION... A large area of elevated precipitation has developed across much of Central Texas this afternoon. However, the atmosphere below 500 hPa is very dry across much of the Central Plains and most of this precip is evaporating before reaching the grid. Very few reports of rainfall have been observed, although some sprinkles have been noted here at the WFO. Latest surface dewpoint depressions are on the order of 20-30 degrees F. The main tongue of moisture is still to the west of the area, but should spread eastward and over the CWA as an upper trough ejects northeast across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and into Kansas. The vast majority of the rain will likely affect the area after midnight tonight. The rain should completely exit the area by noon Sunday. Despite the moisture-starved atmosphere, moderate and prolonged rain rates may yield a swath of well above one inch across much of East Texas, Northwest Louisiana, and Southern Arkansas. Unfortunately, this round of rain alone will not put much of a dent in our long term drought conditions. After a brief break, another strong upper trough will slowly move east across the Southern Rockies and into the Southern Plains. Increasing vertical ascent from the approaching trough should result in another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms spreading from south to north across the area beginning late Monday and continuing into Tuesday. A surface low and warm front will develop and lift north across the area late Tuesday and into Wednesday further increasing the amount of lift and enhancing the rainfall. Some wrap-around rainfall is possible Wednesday morning on the west side of the departing surface low. Storm total rainfall amounts from Monday morning through Wednesday afternoon could be as high as two to three inches across much of the area along and south of the Interstate 30 corridor. The active pattern will continue through the end of the work week as a longwave trough and series of smaller shortwave troughs move across the region. More wet weather is likely going into the holiday weekend. Medium range models continue to show an Arctic airmass will makes its way into the Southern U.S. next weekend. The biggest, and most major, disagreement is in terms of precip. The GFS is advertising precip non-stop from Friday through the following Tuesday. On the flip side, the Euro ends the precip Saturday morning, but introduces more rain south of Interstate 20 late next Sunday. So far, the models have shown considerable disagreement and very little consistency. The forecast beyond next Friday currently has very low confidence. However, the potential does exist for the possibility of wintry precip next weekend, with the best chances currently north of Interstate 30. CNNational Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For SABINE County
SWR not available
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Surface 4-Panel
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Louisiana
Based on observations at 400pm CST, Saturday December 16, 2017
Across Louisiana...temperatures are near 54 degrees south. Current sky condition is cloudy south. In the south, relative humidity is near 69%, and the dew point is near 44 degrees. Winds are unavailable north. Winds are unavailable central. Winds are coming from the east at 8 mph in the south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the unavailable category north, unavailable category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 59 degrees at Baton Rouge. The lowest temperature is 52 degrees at New Orleans Lakefront.
NOWCAST For SABINE Parish: 0-6 Hour Forecast
Issued at 334 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017
.NOW... Light scattered showers continued to move northeast at 20 mph across portions of east Texas, deep east Texas to across northwest Louisiana. Rainfall amounts of a trace to a few hundredths of an inch are possible. In addition, scattered to widespread light to moderate rain showers were noted west of Lufkin, Texas and will impinge on the Four-State Region from southwest to northeast late this afternoon through tonight.
Hazardous Weather Outlook For SABINE County, LA
1210 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 DAY ONE This Afternoon and TonightIsolated thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight. The rainfall will begin to retreat to the east by early Sunday. An inch or more rainfall may occur, however, no hazardous weather is expected. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Sunday through Friday After a brief break from the rain Sunday, rain will return late Sunday night and into Monday. Rain chances will increase on Tuesday, but should diminish late Wednesday. However, no hazardous weather is expected. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT Activation of emergency management personnel amateur radio operators and storm spotters is not anticipated through tonight.
7-Day Forecast For SABINE Parish, LA
353 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017
TONIGHT SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY
SABINE County, Louisiana Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Current Weather Advisory is NOT available
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps:Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Louisiana
LOUISIANA --------------------------------------------- 6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY DEC 22-26 DEC 24-30 DEC DEC-FEB ----------- ----------- -------- --------- Temperature: Below Below Above Above Precipitation: Above Above Below Below .... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Saturday December 16, 2017 the 350th Day of Year --------------------------------------------------- SUN Declination -23.350000 Distance 0.999725 AU Rise 08:02 EST Set 18:06 EST Transit Meridian 13:04 EST Civil Twilight Begins 07:36 EST Ends 18:33 EST Calculations made for central point in the state. Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
DECEMBER 16TH HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS ...1835... New England experienced one of their coldest days of record. At noon on that bitterly cold Wednesday the mercury stood at four degrees below at Boston, 15 degrees below at Norfolk CT, and 17 degrees below at Hanover NH. The temperature at Boston was 12 degrees below zero by sunset. Gale force winds accompanied the severe cold, and that night a great New York City fire destroyed much of the financial district. (David Ludlum) ...1869... A bill was introduced in the House of Representatives, 41st Congress, calling for the taking [of] meteorological observations at the military stations in the interior of the continent, and for giving notice on the northern lakes and Atlantic seaboard of the approach and force of storms. This would be signed in to law February 9, 1870, by President Grant, establishing what would come to be called the National Weather Service. You can see the actual bill on-line at: here. ...1917... An ice jam closed the Ohio River between Warsaw KY and Rising Sun IN. The thirty foot high ice jam held for 58 days, and backed up the river a distance of 100 miles. (David Ludlum) ...1987... A Pacific storm battered the coast of California with rain and high winds, and dumped heavy snow on the mountains of California. Winds along the coast gusted to 70 mph at Point Arguello, and winds in the Tehachapi Mountains of southern California gusted to 100 mph at Wheeler Ridge. Snowfall totals ranged up to 24 inches at Mammoth Mountain. Snow fell for two minutes at Malibu Beach, and Disneyland was closed due to the weather for only the second time in twenty-four years. A winter storm which began in the Southern Rockies four days earlier finished its course producing snow and high winds in New England. Snowfall totals ranged up to 19 inches at Blanchard ME. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) ...1988... Fairbanks AK reported freezing rain and record warm temperatures. The afternoon high of 41 degrees was 43 degrees above normal. Snow and high winds continued to plague the mountains of southern California. Mount Wilson CA reported two inches of rain in six hours during the early morning, and a storm total of more than 3.50 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) ...1989... Fifty-seven cities from the Southern and Central Plains to the Appalachians reported record low temperatures for the date, including North Platte NE with a reading of 17 degrees below zero. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region produced 18 inches of snow at Syracuse NY, and 30 inches at Carlisle IND. Low pressure brought heavy snow to northern New England, with 18 inches reported at Derby VT and Saint Johnsbury VT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky