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Sabine Parish, LA Weather and Climate Synopsis

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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.


National Weather Service Shreveport LA
425 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A large area of elevated precipitation has developed across much
of Central Texas this afternoon. However, the atmosphere below 500
hPa is very dry across much of the Central Plains and most of this
precip is evaporating before reaching the grid. Very few reports 
of rainfall have been observed, although some sprinkles have been 
noted here at the WFO. Latest surface dewpoint depressions are on 
the order of 20-30 degrees F. The main tongue of moisture is still
to the west of the area, but should spread eastward and over the 
CWA as an upper trough ejects northeast across the Texas and 
Oklahoma Panhandles and into Kansas. The vast majority of the rain
will likely affect the area after midnight tonight. The rain 
should completely exit the area by noon Sunday. Despite the 
moisture-starved atmosphere, moderate and prolonged rain rates may
yield a swath of well above one inch across much of East Texas, 
Northwest Louisiana, and Southern Arkansas. Unfortunately, this 
round of rain alone will not put much of a dent in our long term 
drought conditions.

After a brief break, another strong upper trough will slowly move
east across the Southern Rockies and into the Southern Plains.
Increasing vertical ascent from the approaching trough should
result in another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms
spreading from south to north across the area beginning late
Monday and continuing into Tuesday. A surface low and warm front
will develop and lift north across the area late Tuesday and into
Wednesday further increasing the amount of lift and enhancing the
rainfall. Some wrap-around rainfall is possible Wednesday morning
on the west side of the departing surface low. Storm total
rainfall amounts from Monday morning through Wednesday afternoon
could be as high as two to three inches across much of the area
along and south of the Interstate 30 corridor.

The active pattern will continue through the end of the work week
as a longwave trough and series of smaller shortwave troughs move
across the region. More wet weather is likely going into the
holiday weekend. Medium range models continue to show an Arctic
airmass will makes its way into the Southern U.S. next weekend.
The biggest, and most major, disagreement is in terms of precip.
The GFS is advertising precip non-stop from Friday through the
following Tuesday. On the flip side, the Euro ends the precip
Saturday morning, but introduces more rain south of Interstate 20
late next Sunday. So far, the models have shown considerable
disagreement and very little consistency. The forecast beyond next
Friday currently has very low confidence. However, the potential
does exist for the possibility of wintry precip next weekend, with
the best chances currently north of Interstate 30.

CN

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.

Regional Hourly Observations For SABINE County

SWR not available
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Surface 4-Panel
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Louisiana
Based on observations at 400pm CST, Saturday December 16, 2017

Across Louisiana...temperatures are near 54 degrees south. Current sky condition is cloudy south. In the south, relative humidity is near 69%, and the dew point is near 44 degrees. Winds are unavailable north. Winds are unavailable central. Winds are coming from the east at 8 mph in the south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the unavailable category north, unavailable category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 59 degrees at Baton Rouge. The lowest temperature is 52 degrees at New Orleans Lakefront.


NOWCAST For SABINE Parish: 0-6 Hour Forecast
Issued at 334 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.NOW...
Light scattered showers continued to move northeast at 20 mph
across portions of east Texas, deep east Texas to across northwest
Louisiana. Rainfall amounts of a trace to a few hundredths of an
inch are possible. In addition, scattered to widespread light to
moderate rain showers were noted west of Lufkin, Texas and will 
impinge on the Four-State Region from southwest to northeast late
this afternoon through tonight. 

All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map


Hazardous Weather Outlook For SABINE County, LA

1210 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

 DAY ONE  This Afternoon and Tonight  

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight. 
The rainfall will begin to retreat to the east by early Sunday. 
An inch or more rainfall may occur, however, no hazardous weather
is expected.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Sunday through Friday  

After a brief break from the rain Sunday, rain will return late
Sunday night and into Monday. Rain chances will increase on
Tuesday, but should diminish late Wednesday. However, no hazardous
weather is expected.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

Activation of emergency management personnel  amateur radio
operators  and storm spotters is not anticipated through tonight.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook


7-Day Forecast For SABINE Parish, LA
353 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

TONIGHT
Showers likely and isolated thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and isolated thunderstorms after midnight. Cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

SUNDAY
A 30 percent chance of showers in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s. Southeast winds 5 mph becoming light and variable.

SUNDAY NIGHT
A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Lows around 50. Light and variable winds becoming northeast up to 5 mph after midnight.

MONDAY
Cloudy with chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s. East winds 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

MONDAY NIGHT
Chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely and isolated thunderstorms after midnight. Cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Southeast winds 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

TUESDAY
Cloudy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs around 70. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Cloudy. Showers likely and isolated thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

WEDNESDAY
Becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s.

THURSDAY
Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 70s.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 40s.

FRIDAY
Cloudy. Light rain likely. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of rain 60 percent.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of light rain. Lows in the upper 30s.

SATURDAY
Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of light rain. Highs in the upper 40s.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


SABINE County, Louisiana Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory

Current Weather Advisory is NOT available

Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps:Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Louisiana

                            LOUISIANA                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   DEC 22-26    DEC 24-30    DEC       DEC-FEB                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Below        Below      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Below      Below                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Saturday December 16, 2017 the 350th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination -23.350000
Distance 0.999725 AU
Rise 08:02 EST Set 18:06 EST
Transit Meridian 13:04 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:36 EST Ends 18:33 EST

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

DECEMBER 16TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1835...
New England experienced one of their coldest days of record. At noon on
that bitterly cold Wednesday the mercury stood at four degrees below at
Boston, 15 degrees below at Norfolk CT, and 17 degrees below at Hanover NH.
The temperature at Boston was 12 degrees below zero by sunset. Gale force
winds accompanied the severe cold, and that night a great New York City
fire destroyed much of the financial district. (David Ludlum)
...1869...
A bill was introduced in the House of Representatives, 41st Congress, 
calling for the taking [of] meteorological observations at the military 
stations in the interior of the continent, and for giving notice on the 
northern lakes and Atlantic seaboard of the approach and force of storms. 
This would be signed in to law February 9, 1870, by President Grant, 
establishing what would come to be called the National Weather Service. You 
can see the actual bill on-line at: 
 here.
...1917...
An ice jam closed the Ohio River between Warsaw KY and Rising Sun IN. The
thirty foot high ice jam held for 58 days, and backed up the river a
distance of 100 miles. (David Ludlum)
...1987...
A Pacific storm battered the coast of California with rain and high winds,
and dumped heavy snow on the mountains of California. Winds along the coast
gusted to 70 mph at Point Arguello, and winds in the Tehachapi Mountains of
southern California gusted to 100 mph at Wheeler Ridge. Snowfall totals
ranged up to 24 inches at Mammoth Mountain. Snow fell for two minutes at
Malibu Beach, and Disneyland was closed due to the weather for only the
second time in twenty-four years. A winter storm which began in the
Southern Rockies four days earlier finished its course producing snow and
high winds in New England. Snowfall totals ranged up to 19 inches at
Blanchard ME. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1988...
Fairbanks AK reported freezing rain and record warm temperatures. The
afternoon high of 41 degrees was 43 degrees above normal. Snow and high
winds continued to plague the mountains of southern California. Mount
Wilson CA reported two inches of rain in six hours during the early
morning, and a storm total of more than 3.50 inches of rain. (The National
Weather Summary)
...1989...
Fifty-seven cities from the Southern and Central Plains to the Appalachians
reported record low temperatures for the date, including North Platte NE
with a reading of 17 degrees below zero. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region
produced 18 inches of snow at Syracuse NY, and 30 inches at Carlisle IND.
Low pressure brought heavy snow to northern New England, with 18 inches
reported at Derby VT and Saint Johnsbury VT. (The National Weather Summary)
(Storm Data)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky