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National Weather Service Shreveport LA
251 PM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday Night/

A delay in the mid level cloud cover and a slow moving frontal
boundary stretching west to east across Northeast Texas and
Northern Louisiana has resulted in compressional warming ahead of
the boundary which has resulted in soaring temperatures. While we
have had a couple locations exceed 110 degrees on the Heat Index
this afternoon, for the most part, most of the Heat Advisory area
which covers the southern two thirds of Northeast Texas and all of
Northern Louisiana has seen Heat Indices rise in the 104-108 range
with ambient temperatures as of 2pm ranging from 96 to 104. North
of the boundary, we are finally seeing the cloud cover we were
expecting to move in here earlier today and that along with a
slightly drier/cooler post frontal airmass, daytime highs thus far
have been mostly in the middle to upper 90s with much lower
dewpoints resulting in heat indices ranging from 96-102 degrees. 

The short term forecast remains a tricky one as the #1 question
with this forecast remains whether or not to extend the already
present Heat Advisory which is set to expire at 8pm this evening. 
Taking a look at the latest progs, the 594dam/500mb height 
contour is expected to retrograde further west into Northern and 
Central Texas for Monday compared to where it is today, across the
heart of our region. Couple this with dirty, northwest flow along
the eastern flank of the ridge axis which should help to keep mid
and high level cloud cover across our region for at least the 
first half of the day on Monday which should allow for a much 
slower warmup. Couple this with the boundary bisecting our region 
today is forecast to backdoor a little more to the south and west 
overnight tonight which may allow for slightly drier dewpoints to 
settle into the I-20 Corridor for Monday. All this to say the 
current plan is not to extend the Heat Advisory beyond 8 pm this 
evening and will allow the overnight forecast shift to make this 
call depending on the above mentioned parameters. 

Did add slight chance pops tonight as lift present with this dirty
northwesterly flow could result in some spotty showers overnight
and through the morning hours on Monday but very dry conditions
below 10kft or so would suggest the activity could evaporate
before hitting the ground. 

Prelims to follow...13.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/

The frontal boundary will remain to our South with light N/NE winds 
through most of Wednesday before veering to E/SE by sunset. The air 
temps are forecast to remain in the mid the upper 90s range for this 
time during midweek. Then into the latter part of the work week we 
are back to triple digits just about area wide with the mostly dry 
pattern and the muggy southerly winds. 

The GFS/ECMWF both have good agreement on the upper ridge building 
over the SW U.S. as a deepening trough mid to late week extending 
down the MS valley with the parent low over the Great Lake states. 
The trough will further deepen lowering heights aloft for us taking 
the triple digit edge off over the weekend with more mid to upper 
90s. Meanwhile, as the trough digs down over our area the afore 
mentioned models paint some decent QPF mainly backdoor style from 
N/NE to S/SW with chance wording having worked southward for all of 
E TX as well by the end of this period as another strong surface 
high develops over the plains states at 1023 mb over NB by Monday 
afternoon. 

/24/

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.

Regional Hourly Observations For JACKSON County

SWR not available
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Surface 4-Panel
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Louisiana
Based on observations at 600pm CDT, Sunday July 22, 2018

Across Louisiana...temperatures are near 94 degrees south. Current sky condition is fair south. In the south, relative humidity is near 57%, and the dew point is near 77 degrees. The heat index is near 108 degrees south. The livestock heat stress category is unavailable north, unavailable central, and emergency south. Winds are unavailable north. Winds are unavailable central. Winds are coming from the west at 16 mph in the south, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 94 degrees at Slidell, N.O. INTL ARPT, and Baton Rouge. The lowest temperature is 93 degrees at New Orleans Lakefront.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this Parish will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For JACKSON County, LA

1144 AM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

 DAY ONE  This Afternoon and Tonight  

   A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM CDT this
evening  

Afternoon high temperatures over 100 degrees combined with high
humidity values will lead to heat index values near or over 105
degrees through early this evening. If outdoor activities are 
planned, make sure and take frequent breaks, drink plenty of 
liquids and move activities into the shade if possible.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Monday through Saturday  

High heat index values may continue South of I-20 on Monday 
until a cold front moves down to the Gulf coast. There is a 
slight chance for thunderstorms along this front across Deep East 
Texas Monday night. However, no organized severe weather threat is
anticipated.

After a brief break, heat index values are once again expected to
rise to near or above 105 degrees near the end of the week. Rain
chances should be low for most of the upcoming work week, but
chances for thunderstorms will return to the area next weekend.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio 
operators and storm spotters will not be needed through tonight.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook


7-Day Forecast For JACKSON Parish, LA
539 PM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018


HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING

TONIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 70s. Northeast winds 10 mph. Heat index readings 105 to 107 in the evening.

MONDAY
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers through mid morning, then partly cloudy in the late morning and afternoon. Highs in the mid 90s. North winds 10 mph. Heat index readings 101 to 104.

MONDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Northeast winds 10 mph.

TUESDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 90s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s. North winds 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 90s.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s.

THURSDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 90s.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.

FRIDAY
Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 100.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.

SATURDAY
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 90s.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s.

SUNDAY
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 90s.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


JACKSON County, Louisiana Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory

Current Weather Advisory is NOT available

Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps:Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Louisiana

                            LOUISIANA                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                JUL 28-AUG 1 JUL 30-AUG 5    JUL       JUL-SEP                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above       Normal      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Below      Below                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Sunday July 22, 2018 the 203th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination 20.070000
Distance 0.999716 AU
Rise 07:18 EDT Set 21:11 EDT
Transit Meridian 14:14 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:52 EDT Ends 21:37 EDT

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

////////////////////////////
JULY 22ND...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1901...
Richmond, Kentucky's hottest temperature on record: 108 degrees. 
(NWS Louisville)
...1918...
A single bolt of lightning struck 504 sheep dead in their tracks at the
Wasatch National Forest in Utah. Sheep often herd together in storms, and
as a result the shock from the lightning bolt was passed from one animal to
another. (David Ludlum)
...1986...
Hurricane Estelle passed 120 miles south of the Hawaiian Islands creating a
ten to twenty foot surf. The large swells resulted from a combination of
high tides, a full moon, and 50 mph winds. The hurricane also deluged Oahu
Island with as much as 6.86 inches of rain on the 24th and 25th of the
month. (Storm Data)
...1987...
Barrow AK receives 1.38 inches in 24 hours on the 21st and 22nd, an
all-time record for that location. The average annual precipitation for
Barrow is just 4.75 inches. Thunderstorms in Montana produced 4 to 6 inches
of rain in Glacier County causing extensive flooding along Divide Creek.
Missoula MT received 1.71 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the
month of July. (The National Weather Summary) (The Weather Channel)
...1988...
Six cities in the south central U.S. reported record low temperatures for
the date, including Pueblo CO with a reading of 48 degrees. Thunderstorms
over the Atlantic Coast Region drenched Wilmington NC with 6.49 inches of
rain in about eight hours. (The National Weather Summary)
...1989...
Showers and thunderstorms prevailed across the southeastern third of the
country. Afternoon thunderstorms in Florida produced wind gusts to 86 mph
at Zephyrhills, and gusts to 92 mph at Carrollwood and Lutz. Thunderstorm
winds gusting to 69 mph at Crystal Lake damaged nineteen mobile homes.
(Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
...1995...
A Louisville man was slightly injured when lightning struck a utility pole 
and traveled through the phone lines into his living room. Lightning also 
damaged a house in Bardstown (Nelson County). (NWS Louisville)
========================================================================
Lexington Area  (ThreadEx Station)
Daily Almanac
Date: Jul 22, 2011

Daily Values         Observed    Normal       Record/Year    Prev Year
Max Temperature           -         86        102 in 1901          89
Min Temperature           -         67         50 in 1947          71
Avg Temperature           -         77       88.5 in 1983        80.0
Precipitation             -       0.15       2.35 in 1892        0.01
New Snowfall              -        0.0        0.0 in 2010+        0.0
Snow Depth                -          -          0 in 2010+          0
HDD (base 65)             -          0          4 in 1947           0
CDD (base 65)             -         12         24 in 1983          15

Month-To-Date        Observed    Normal       Record/Year    Prev Year
Avg Max Temperature    88.0       85.9       95.6 in 1936        87.6
Avg Min Temperature    68.3       66.1       59.8 in 1947        67.5
Avg Temperature        78.2       75.9       82.1 in 1936        77.5
Total Precipitation    3.88       3.49       9.56 in 1896        5.45
Total Snowfall          0.0        0.0        0.0 in 2011         0.0
Avg Snow Depth            0          -          0 in 2010           0
Total HDD                 0          1         10 in 1972           0
Total CDD               283        244        383 in 1936         282

+ indicates record also occurred in previous years (last occurrence listed).

This station's record may include data from more than one, possibly incompatible, 
locations. It reflects the longest available record for the Lexington Area.
Normals used in this product are from LEXINGTON BLUEGRASS AP

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky