A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
National Weather Service Shreveport LA 251 PM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday Night/ A delay in the mid level cloud cover and a slow moving frontal boundary stretching west to east across Northeast Texas and Northern Louisiana has resulted in compressional warming ahead of the boundary which has resulted in soaring temperatures. While we have had a couple locations exceed 110 degrees on the Heat Index this afternoon, for the most part, most of the Heat Advisory area which covers the southern two thirds of Northeast Texas and all of Northern Louisiana has seen Heat Indices rise in the 104-108 range with ambient temperatures as of 2pm ranging from 96 to 104. North of the boundary, we are finally seeing the cloud cover we were expecting to move in here earlier today and that along with a slightly drier/cooler post frontal airmass, daytime highs thus far have been mostly in the middle to upper 90s with much lower dewpoints resulting in heat indices ranging from 96-102 degrees. The short term forecast remains a tricky one as the #1 question with this forecast remains whether or not to extend the already present Heat Advisory which is set to expire at 8pm this evening. Taking a look at the latest progs, the 594dam/500mb height contour is expected to retrograde further west into Northern and Central Texas for Monday compared to where it is today, across the heart of our region. Couple this with dirty, northwest flow along the eastern flank of the ridge axis which should help to keep mid and high level cloud cover across our region for at least the first half of the day on Monday which should allow for a much slower warmup. Couple this with the boundary bisecting our region today is forecast to backdoor a little more to the south and west overnight tonight which may allow for slightly drier dewpoints to settle into the I-20 Corridor for Monday. All this to say the current plan is not to extend the Heat Advisory beyond 8 pm this evening and will allow the overnight forecast shift to make this call depending on the above mentioned parameters. Did add slight chance pops tonight as lift present with this dirty northwesterly flow could result in some spotty showers overnight and through the morning hours on Monday but very dry conditions below 10kft or so would suggest the activity could evaporate before hitting the ground. Prelims to follow...13. LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/ The frontal boundary will remain to our South with light N/NE winds through most of Wednesday before veering to E/SE by sunset. The air temps are forecast to remain in the mid the upper 90s range for this time during midweek. Then into the latter part of the work week we are back to triple digits just about area wide with the mostly dry pattern and the muggy southerly winds. The GFS/ECMWF both have good agreement on the upper ridge building over the SW U.S. as a deepening trough mid to late week extending down the MS valley with the parent low over the Great Lake states. The trough will further deepen lowering heights aloft for us taking the triple digit edge off over the weekend with more mid to upper 90s. Meanwhile, as the trough digs down over our area the afore mentioned models paint some decent QPF mainly backdoor style from N/NE to S/SW with chance wording having worked southward for all of E TX as well by the end of this period as another strong surface high develops over the plains states at 1023 mb over NB by Monday afternoon. /24/National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]
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Regional Hourly Observations For JACKSON County
SWR not available
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Surface 4-Panel
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Louisiana
Based on observations at 600pm CDT, Sunday July 22, 2018
Across Louisiana...temperatures are near 94 degrees south. Current sky condition is fair south. In the south, relative humidity is near 57%, and the dew point is near 77 degrees. The heat index is near 108 degrees south. The livestock heat stress category is unavailable north, unavailable central, and emergency south. Winds are unavailable north. Winds are unavailable central. Winds are coming from the west at 16 mph in the south, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 94 degrees at Slidell, N.O. INTL ARPT, and Baton Rouge. The lowest temperature is 93 degrees at New Orleans Lakefront.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this Parish will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For JACKSON County, LA
1144 AM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018 DAY ONE This Afternoon and TonightA Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM CDT this evening Afternoon high temperatures over 100 degrees combined with high humidity values will lead to heat index values near or over 105 degrees through early this evening. If outdoor activities are planned, make sure and take frequent breaks, drink plenty of liquids and move activities into the shade if possible. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Monday through Saturday High heat index values may continue South of I-20 on Monday until a cold front moves down to the Gulf coast. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms along this front across Deep East Texas Monday night. However, no organized severe weather threat is anticipated. After a brief break, heat index values are once again expected to rise to near or above 105 degrees near the end of the week. Rain chances should be low for most of the upcoming work week, but chances for thunderstorms will return to the area next weekend. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio operators and storm spotters will not be needed through tonight.
7-Day Forecast For JACKSON Parish, LA
539 PM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018
TONIGHT MONDAY MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY
JACKSON County, Louisiana Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Current Weather Advisory is NOT available
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps:Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Louisiana
LOUISIANA --------------------------------------------- 6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY JUL 28-AUG 1 JUL 30-AUG 5 JUL JUL-SEP ----------- ----------- -------- --------- Temperature: Above Normal Above Above Precipitation: Above Above Below Below .... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Sunday July 22, 2018 the 203th Day of Year --------------------------------------------------- SUN Declination 20.070000 Distance 0.999716 AU Rise 07:18 EDT Set 21:11 EDT Transit Meridian 14:14 EDT Civil Twilight Begins 06:52 EDT Ends 21:37 EDT Calculations made for central point in the state. Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
//////////////////////////// JULY 22ND...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS ...1901... Richmond, Kentucky's hottest temperature on record: 108 degrees. (NWS Louisville) ...1918... A single bolt of lightning struck 504 sheep dead in their tracks at the Wasatch National Forest in Utah. Sheep often herd together in storms, and as a result the shock from the lightning bolt was passed from one animal to another. (David Ludlum) ...1986... Hurricane Estelle passed 120 miles south of the Hawaiian Islands creating a ten to twenty foot surf. The large swells resulted from a combination of high tides, a full moon, and 50 mph winds. The hurricane also deluged Oahu Island with as much as 6.86 inches of rain on the 24th and 25th of the month. (Storm Data) ...1987... Barrow AK receives 1.38 inches in 24 hours on the 21st and 22nd, an all-time record for that location. The average annual precipitation for Barrow is just 4.75 inches. Thunderstorms in Montana produced 4 to 6 inches of rain in Glacier County causing extensive flooding along Divide Creek. Missoula MT received 1.71 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the month of July. (The National Weather Summary) (The Weather Channel) ...1988... Six cities in the south central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Pueblo CO with a reading of 48 degrees. Thunderstorms over the Atlantic Coast Region drenched Wilmington NC with 6.49 inches of rain in about eight hours. (The National Weather Summary) ...1989... Showers and thunderstorms prevailed across the southeastern third of the country. Afternoon thunderstorms in Florida produced wind gusts to 86 mph at Zephyrhills, and gusts to 92 mph at Carrollwood and Lutz. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 69 mph at Crystal Lake damaged nineteen mobile homes. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) ...1995... A Louisville man was slightly injured when lightning struck a utility pole and traveled through the phone lines into his living room. Lightning also damaged a house in Bardstown (Nelson County). (NWS Louisville) ======================================================================== Lexington Area (ThreadEx Station) Daily Almanac Date: Jul 22, 2011 Daily Values Observed Normal Record/Year Prev Year Max Temperature - 86 102 in 1901 89 Min Temperature - 67 50 in 1947 71 Avg Temperature - 77 88.5 in 1983 80.0 Precipitation - 0.15 2.35 in 1892 0.01 New Snowfall - 0.0 0.0 in 2010+ 0.0 Snow Depth - - 0 in 2010+ 0 HDD (base 65) - 0 4 in 1947 0 CDD (base 65) - 12 24 in 1983 15 Month-To-Date Observed Normal Record/Year Prev Year Avg Max Temperature 88.0 85.9 95.6 in 1936 87.6 Avg Min Temperature 68.3 66.1 59.8 in 1947 67.5 Avg Temperature 78.2 75.9 82.1 in 1936 77.5 Total Precipitation 3.88 3.49 9.56 in 1896 5.45 Total Snowfall 0.0 0.0 0.0 in 2011 0.0 Avg Snow Depth 0 - 0 in 2010 0 Total HDD 0 1 10 in 1972 0 Total CDD 283 244 383 in 1936 282 + indicates record also occurred in previous years (last occurrence listed). This station's record may include data from more than one, possibly incompatible, locations. It reflects the longest available record for the Lexington Area. Normals used in this product are from LEXINGTON BLUEGRASS AP
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky