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Crawford County, AR Weather and Climate Synopsis

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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.


Weather Summary for Arkansas
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
255 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Warm conditions were seen so far this afternoon as breezy southerly 
winds ushered in warm and moist air to the region. Temperatures this 
afternoon have warmed into the mid 60s to upper 70s. Most areas 
remained dry this afternoon...but a line of showers were lifting 
north over western Arkansas this afternoon...from around Fort Smith 
to near Harrison.

The best chances for seeing showers and a few thunderstorms will be 
across the northwest third of the state through tonight. Given the 
warm southerly winds...temperatures tonight will not fall very 
far...with lows by Tuesday morning in the 60s for most areas. 

A cold front will approach the state from the northwest on 
Tuesday...with chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms 
highest across far northwest sections of the state through Tuesday 
afternoon. However...this front will slowly drop southeast Tuesday 
night through Wednesday before stalling across far southeast 
Arkansas Wednesday night and Thursday morning. This will result in 
the best chances for widespread rainfall shifting further south and 
east Tuesday night through Wednesday night. 

Several inches of rainfall will result from this slow moving 
front...with rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 or more inches across the 
northwest two thirds of the state. Expect generally 1 to around 3 
inches across the southeast third of the state. 

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For CRAWFORD County

SWR not available
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Arkansas
Based on observations at 900pm CST, Monday February 19, 2018

Across Arkansas...temperatures are near 67 degrees north, near 68 degrees central, and near 72 degrees south. Current sky conditions are cloudy north, mostly cloudy central, and fair south. In the north, relative humidity is near 72%, and the dew point is near 58 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 73%, and the dew point is near 59 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 66%, and the dew point is near 60 degrees. Winds are from the south at 16 mph with gusts at 23 mph north, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Winds are from the southeast at 10 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the south at 13 mph south, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category north, no stress category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 72 degrees at Mena and El Dorado. The lowest temperature is 54 degrees at Mount Ida.


NOWCAST For CRAWFORD County: 0-6 Hour Forecast
Issued at 813 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.NOW...
At 8:13 PM...National Weather Service doppler radars continued to
detect scattered showers and thunderstorms lifting northeast 
across portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Most of 
the precipitation was along a line from near Miami, south toward 
Hugo. All this activity was moving toward the northeast, around 40
miles per hour.
Through 10:00 PM...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will 
continue to track northeast across the area. Moderate to brief
heavy rainfall can be expected from this activity, with amounts 
ranging from a tenth of an inch, to near a half inch with any
stronger storms. A couple of the storms could become strong
enough to produce some hail, however widespread severe weather is
not expected. The precipitation is expected to increase in 
coverage and persist overnight.

US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map


Hazardous Weather Outlook For CRAWFORD County,AR

352 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

   SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING  HEAVY RAIN THREAT
OVERNIGHT   


This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

 DAY ONE  Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK  Limited.
AREA  Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET  Late afternoon and evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK  Limited.
AREA  Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET  Late afternoon or evening.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK  Limited.
AREA  Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET  Tonight.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK  Limited.
AREA  Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET  Tonight.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK  Limited.
AREA  Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET  Ongoing.

DISCUSSION  
An active evening and overnight period as a cold front pushes in
from the north this afternoon and evening. Another round of
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold
front by this evening with threat for marginally severe storms, 
including a large hail and limited tornado threat. The greatest 
threat for severe storms will remain generally north of Interstate
40.

Further south  the primary concern will be storms producing
locally heavy rainfall across southeast Oklahoma up through 
northwest Arkansas. Several inches of rainfall are expected along 
this axis through Tuesday with an increased concern for flooding
and flash flooding.

Southerly winds will continue to remain gusty tonight and Tuesday
with gusts of 25 to 30 mph common.


SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT  
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY  Thunderstorm Potential  High Wind Potential  Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY  Winter Weather Potential  High Wind Potential. 
THURSDAY  Thunderstorm Potential  Heavy Rain Potential. 
FRIDAY  Thunderstorm Potential  Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY  Thunderstorm Potential. 
SUNDAY  No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION  
Several rounds of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity are 
expected throughout the week, with the first round of significant
rainfall expected Tuesday and Tuesday night as the cold front 
begins to push into the region. Locally heavy rainfall is likely 
across portions of southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas with
around 1 to 3 inches of rain possible as these locations will be 
within a deep moist axis.

A period of light freezing rain will be possible across parts of
northeast Oklahoma late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
precipitation that lingers before temperatures rise above 
freezing. There still remains uncertainty concerning icing 
potential, so stay aware of the latest forecasts.

Warmer temperatures for the latter part of the work week will
coincide with additional chances for widespread, heavy rainfall. 
The deep moist axis will once again setup across southeast 
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, and additional amounts will have 
the potential to create flash flooding and mainstem river 
flooding by late Thursday or Friday, particularly areas that 
remain saturated by the heavy rainfall earlier in the week.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT  
With a very unsettled pattern in place for this week, please pay
attention to the latest updates, and includes any flash flood and
river flood watches that may be posted given the current flood 
potential. Overall rain amounts and areal coverage of rainfall 
will be refined with later forecasts.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook


7-Day Forecast For CRAWFORD County, Arkansas
814 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018


FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM CST TUESDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT

REST OF TONIGHT
Showers likely and isolated thunderstorms, then occasional showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

TUESDAY
Occasional showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then occasional showers and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. South winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Occasional rain showers and scattered thunderstorms in the evening, then periods of light rain after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the evening. Lows 39 to 45. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

WEDNESDAY
Periods of light rain in the morning, then rain showers likely in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Rain showers likely in the evening, then mostly cloudy with slight chance of rain showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 30s. East winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of showers 60 percent.

THURSDAY
Slight chance of rain showers in the morning, then rain showers likely in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of showers 60 percent.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Occasional rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

FRIDAY
Occasional rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Occasional rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

SATURDAY
Scattered thunderstorms and chance of rain showers in the morning, then rain showers likely and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the evening, then slight chance of rain showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 40s. Chance of showers 40 percent.

SUNDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s.

MONDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs around 60.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


Medium & Long Range Outlook For Arkansas
                             ARKANSAS                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                FEB 25-MAR 1 FEB 27-MAR 5    MAR       MAR-MAY                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above     Normal      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Above     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Monday February 19, 2018 the 50th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination -10.910000
Distance 0.999723 AU
Rise 07:49 EST Set 18:56 EST
Transit Meridian 13:22 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:25 EST Ends 19:21 EST

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

FEBRUARY 19TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1871...
A. Lapham, in Cincinnati, wrote the first public weather forecast.
...1884...
Severe thunderstorms spawned sixty tornadoes in the southeastern U.S.,
killing more than 420 persons and causing three million dollars damage.
Georgia and the Carolinas hardest were hit in the tornado outbreak. (David
Ludlum)
...1888...
A tornado struck Mount Vernon IL. The tornado killed sixteen persons along
its 62 mile path. (David Ludlum)
...1954...
High winds across the southern half of the Great Plains, gusting to 85 mph,
caused the worst duststorms since the 1930s. Graders were needed in places
to clear fence high dirt drifts. (The Weather Channel)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky