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Winston County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts





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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.


.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

Central AL remains on the eastward edge of an upper level ridge 
today and tonight as a longwave trough slides just off the East 
Coast. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary is stretched through the 
Southern Appalachians and into North and North-Central AL for most 
of the day. Models pick up on the wind shift and the isodrosotherm 
gradient, so we'll at least see a moisture contrast across Central 
AL today even if nothing meaningful changes with the temperatures. 
This boundary setup should keep much of the afternoon convection 
limited to areas generally south of I-20, with the best chances in 
the far southern counties and along I-85, coinciding with the best 
moisture availability. 

As we get into the evening hours, we should see an overall decrease 
in shower/storm activity. However, it's worth noting that the NMM 
tries to develop some convection in Western AL that is likely 
building off an outflow from storms associated with a shortwave-
induced MCS in the Mid-MS Valley that global and regional models 
pick up on (also highlighted in the Day 1 SPC outlook). The impulse 
really doesn't make it into our area until tomorrow, so it's not 
overly concerning from a severe standpoint. Considering the 
uncertainty with outflow-initiated convection in general, I'll only 
carry chance PoPs in the western portions of Central AL through 
roughly 10pm for now. Any lingering storms should clear out during 
the overnight hours. 

Temperature-wise, expect near-normal diurnal ranges with highs near 
90s and lows in the low 70s.

25/Owen

.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Tuesday.

A split upper-level flow pattern will temporarily be in place 
across the eastern CONUS Thursday with a broad trough/area of 
cyclonic flow aloft over the Southeast and a ridge over the 
eastern Great Lakes. This will be downstream of a strong 
northwesterly upper-level jet streak nosing into the Central 
Plains, with a vigorous shortwave located to its north over the 
Midwest and a strong ridge to its south centered near the Four 
Corners. At the surface, high pressure will be building down the 
lee of the Appalachians while a weak wave of low pressure develops
near the Gulf Coast. This will will result in easterly winds 
building into East Alabama with an increase in low-level moisture 
and convergent flow. Meanwhile the stalled frontal boundary will 
become more diffuse. Models have trended quicker with moisture 
return, and combined with a weak vort max aloft coverage of 
afternoon showers/storms looks to be greater than previously 
expected. Therefore PoPs were raised especially in the 
southern/eastern counties. Activity should mainly diminish after 
sunset, but there is a slight chance that remnants of convection 
developing upstream could reach the northwest counties after 
midnight. 

By Friday the southern stream upper trough will push off to the
east as the ridge over the Southern Plains begins to build
westward. The northern stream shortwave with embedded upper low
will move into Wisconsin. 500mb heights will rise over Central
Alabama with associated synoptic-scale subsidence, while 700mb
temperatures warming to +10 to +11C will result in increased 
capping. This may suppress diurnal convection except in the 
southeast counties. However, will keep in at least a slight chance
everywhere given available PWATs and the potential for lingering 
boundaries. Strengthening northwest flow aloft results in 0-6 km 
bulk shear values around 35 kts with increasing mid-level lapse 
rates. There will be a conditional risk of an isolated strong to 
severe storm Friday afternoon if convective initiation can occur. 
Low-level flow will become westerly over West Alabama, with 
trajectories originating from a very hot air mass over the 
Southern Plains. This will result in heat index values around 105 
degrees, and this threat will be added to the HWO. 

One or more MCSs/strong to severe clusters of storms are expected
to develop off to our north Friday afternoon/evening due to
forcing associated with the upper low and a cold front at the
surface. A "ring of fire" type pattern will be in place around the
southern Plains ridge and associated strong capping/EML. The best
height falls/forcing will remain northeast of our area. There is 
the possibility that some of this activity could at least clip our
northeast counties after midnight, but models disagree on this. 
There is the possibility that this activity could be strong to 
severe given the deep layer shear/lapse rates, but given great
uncertainty in the track/strength of this activity and the
overnight time frame, confidence is too low to mention in the HWO
for Friday night.

Troughing continues to amplify over the eastern CONUS on Saturday
as a cold front approaches from the north. NAM/GFS wind fields
appear contaminated by convective feedback, but even the ECMWF
shows northwesterly 0-6km bulk shear values greater than 40 kts
over Central Alabama, which are very unusual for late July. Given
the presence of a moist and unstable air mass and favorable lapse
rates, this will result in the potential for strong to severe 
storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail. However, the 
big caveat is what impact convection late Friday night continuing 
into Saturday morning will have on available instability. Both the
GFS and ECMWF show a decent amount of QPF between 12 and 18Z 
Saturday morning. This could contaminate what would otherwise be a
favorable northwest flow severe event. Therefore, while a threat 
of severe storms will be added to the HWO, will keep it as a low 
confidence threat for now. Will also note that there will be some 
SRH present, and given the deep layer shear values the 
possibility of a tornado cannot be ruled out. But again given the 
low confidence associated with the potential for disruptive 
morning convection, will not mention this particular threat in the
HWO at this time. Also, if a cold pool does not form in the 
morning, heat index readings could reach 105 as well. 

The eastern CONUS trough will remain the main player in the rest
of the extended forecast period. Its placement will have a big
impact on temperatures and dew points. Moisture wrapping around
the trough may be enough to spark some showers/storms at times
Sunday through Tuesday.

32/Davis


Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For WINSTON County
800 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2018
NORTH ALABAMA
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
MUSCLE SHOALS  NOT AVBL                                               
HUNTSVILLE     CLOUDY    77  75  93 E3        30.02R FOG              
DECATUR        NOT AVBL                                               
HALEYVILLE     FAIR      77  74  90 VRB3      30.05R                  
GADSDEN        FAIR      76  76 100 MISG      30.02R                  

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 800am CDT, Wednesday July 18, 2018

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 77 degrees north, near 78 degrees central, and near 79 degrees south. Current sky conditions are cloudy north, partly sunny central, and partly sunny south. In the north, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 75 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 84%, and the dew point is near 73 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 90%, and the dew point is near 76 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is no stress north, no stress central, and no stress south. There is patchy fog north. Winds are from the east at 3 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the west at 3 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the west at 3 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 81 degrees at Brookely Field. The lowest temperature is 74 degrees at Troy and Alexander City.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For WINSTON County, AL

601 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

 DAY ONE  Today and Tonight.

Patchy fog will reduce visibilities below one mile at times through
9 AM this morning, mainly along and east of a line from Warrior to
Montgomery to Troy.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Thursday through Tuesday.

Heat index readings will be around 105 degrees on Friday in western
portions of Central Alabama.

There is the potential for severe storms on Saturday. At this time
the main threat is damaging winds.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
on Saturday.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook


7-Day Forecast For WINSTON County, Alabama
830 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

TODAY
Partly cloudy. Patchy fog early in the morning. Highs in the upper 80s. Northeast winds around 5 mph.

TONIGHT
Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Lows around 70. Light winds.

THURSDAY
Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph after midnight.

FRIDAY
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. South winds around 5 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

SATURDAY
Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 90.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s.

SUNDAY
Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s.

MONDAY
Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s.

MONDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s.

TUESDAY
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 90.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                              ALABAMA                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   JUL 23-27 JUL 25-JUL 31    JUL       JUL-SEP                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above       Normal      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above     Normal     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Wednesday July 18, 2018 the 199th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination 20.850000
Distance 0.999716 AU
Rise 06:51 EDT Set 20:57 EDT
Transit Meridian 13:54 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:24 EDT Ends 21:24 EDT

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

//////////////////////////
JULY 18TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1889...
A cloudburst in West Virginia along the small creeks in Wirt County,
Jackson County and Wood County claimed twenty lives. Rockport WV reported
nineteen inches of rain in two hours and ten minutes that Thursday evening.
Tygart Creek rose 22 feet in one hour, and villages were swept away on
Tygart, Slate, Tucker, and Sandy Creeks. (The Weather Channel)
...1942...
A record deluge occurred at Smethport in northern Pennsylvania, with 30.7
inches in just six hours. The downpours and resultant flooding in
Pennsylvania were devastating. (David Ludlum)
...1986...
One of the most "photo-genic" tornadoes touched down in the northern
suburbs of Minneapolis MN during the late afternoon. The very slow moving
tornado actually appeared live on the evening news by way of an aerial
video taken by the KARE-TV helicopter crew. The tornado, unlike most, was
quite the prima donna, staying visible to tens of thousands of persons for
thirty minutes. It was moderate in intensity, with winds of 113-157 mph,
and caused 650 thousand dollars damage. (Storm Data)
...1987...
Cool weather prevailed in the western U.S. Seven cities reported record low
temperatures for the date, including Alamosa CO with a reading of 38
degrees. The low of 52 degrees at Bakersfield CA was a record for July. Up
to eight inches of snow covered the Northern Sierra Nevada Range of
California from a storm the previous day. During that storm, winds gusting
to 52 mph at Slide Mountain NV produced a wind chill reading of 20 degrees
below zero. Susanville CA reached 17 degrees that previous day, Blue Canyon
CA dipped to a July record of 36 degrees, and the high of 44 degrees at
Klamath Falls OR smashed their previous record for July by ten degrees.
(The National Weather Summary)
...1988...
Sweltering heat continued in California, with record highs of 111 degrees
at Redding and 112 degrees at Sacramento. Death Valley CA hit 127 degrees.
Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the Central Plains Region
produced baseball size hail at Kimball NE, wind gusts to 79 mph at Colby
KS, and six inches of rain near Lexington NE. (The National Weather
Summary) (Storm Data)
...1989...
Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Oklahoma, northern Texas and
Arkansas during the afternoon, and into the night. Thunderstorms produced
baseball size hail at Stamford TX, and wind gusts to 92 mph near
Throckmorton TX. Record heat continued in the southwestern U.S. Phoenix AZ
reported a record high of 115 degrees, and a 111 degree reading at Midland
TX was second only to their all-time record high of 112 degrees established
sixteen days earlier. (The National Weather Summary)


Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky