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Upper Mobile County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts





US Weekly Rainfall Departure



US Weekly Temperature Departure
Also see:




A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.


.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight. 

Rainfall has really begun to increase in coverage across western 
Mississippi this morning and will continue to slide east through the 
morning. Looks like most everyone along and north of the I-85 
corridor will see rain today, so went the highest possible for rain 
chances. Looks like we may begin to see some clearing in the far 
northwest this afternoon and then continue to slide south and east 
through the night. Overall coverage will begin to decrease after 
sunset as we loose what heating we have but rain chances remain on 
the likely side through sunrise Monday. Thunder is not expected for 
the day but rainfall will be moderate to heavy. Not expecting any 
flooding concerns as we have been on the drier side for the last 
several days. Although the rainfall through tonight could set up 
potential for some flooding later this week and will be discussed in 
the extended section. As the rain clears to the south overnight,
there could be some patchy fog that develops and reduces
visibilities to less than one mile and will need to monitor for a
dense fog advisory. Therefore we have added fog into the HWO for
tonight and Monday morning. 

16

.LONG TERM...
Monday through Sunday:

Monday/Monday night:

Southwesterly anti-cyclonic flow will be in place on Monday around
deep layer ridging centered between Florida and Cuba. A split flow
pattern will remain in place with a southern cutoff low over the
Desert Southwest and northern stream troughing over Canada. A
precipitation-reinforced quasi-stationary front will extend from
the Louisiana Gulf Coast northeastward toward southeast Alabama.
The eastern portion of this boundary may drift southward during 
the morning following passage of a weak meso-low. Precipitation 
forecast remains challenging due to weak/broad forcing associated 
with weak waves in the southwest flow, and how quickly a residual 
cold pool/area of dry air erodes in the wake of today's activity. 
Showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight/early tomorrow
morning along the frontal boundary in the vicinity of the 
Louisiana Gulf Coast in a broad area of upper-level lift 
associated with the right entrance region of an upper-level jet 
streak and lift to the east-northeast. Generally favor a non-GFS 
solution with a further south position of the front due to outflow
from today's activity and highest rain chances closer to the Gulf
Coast with some activity bleeding over into our southern 
counties. A separate area of mid-level frontogenesis and moisture 
will located further north closer to the I-20 corridor, which 
could allow for some rain to fall there as well if low-level dry 
air can be overcome. So, kept a mention of scattered showers in as
far north as Birmingham with lower confidence. Weak elevated 
instability will be in place across the southern counties which 
could allow for a rumble or two of thunder, but any surface-based 
instability and potential for any stronger storms should remain 
south of the forecast area. Also not expecting any heavy rain 
during this time. Temperatures will hinge on precipitation and 
lingering cool air. Will indicate highs in the upper 50s to low 
60s north and mid to upper 60s south (low 70s possible far 
southeast), but confidence is low as some high-res guidance keeps 
temperatures across the north in the low 50s. 

Some showers may linger near the I-20 corridor through the
evening. Focus for showers shifts to the northwest after midnight
as low-level isentropic lift strengthens ahead of the cutoff low
ejecting out of West Texas, and as the front lifts northward as a
warm front. This also results in a non-diurnal temperature trend
with temperatures steady/rising slightly after midnight.

Tuesday/Wednesday:

Models indicate a west to east band of moderate to heavy rainfall
developing along and north of the warm front as unseasonably high
PWATs intersect the boundary. This area of heavy rain has been
trending northward, so the main threat of flooding seems to be
shifting north of the forecast area, but will continue to 
monitor. The strong shortwave will move through the area late 
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning while getting squeezed between
the subtropical ridge and troughing over the northeastern CONUS. 
Models seem to be converging on the forecast area being in the 
warm sector of a surface low moving across northern Mississippi 
and middle Tennessee with low to mid 60s dewpoints and a few 
hundred J/kg of CAPE ahead of a cold front/dry-line like feature. 
There are still some key differences regarding the strength of the
low and associated backing of the low-level winds, and how soon 
the low-level winds will veer out relative to the instability 
arriving. If trends continue, a threat for isolated tornadoes late
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning could be added to the HWO in 
later issuances given favorable wind profiles for mini-supercells.

Thursday through Sunday:

One dry day is expected on Thursday between systems with the only
forecast challenge being a possible wedge briefly trying to build
in. Focus then shifts to the next southern-stream trough ejecting
out of the western CONUS, and eventually phasing with a deep
northern stream trough engulfing almost the entire CONUS. Another
cold front looks to move into the area during the Friday/Friday
night timeframe. Any threat for severe weather will depend on the
degree of moisture return in the wake of Wednesday's system.
Models and ensembles have had many varying solutions for this 
weekend regarding whether the front moves through, stalls, or 
retreats off to the northwest, and whether the expected outbreak 
of arctic air catches up to precipitation along the front. It's
certainly too early to use any deterministic model runs at this
point. General consensus continues to support only mentioning
liquid precipitation through the current forecast period at this
time.

32/Davis

Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For UPPER MOBILE County
500 AM CST SUN DEC 17 2017
COASTAL ALABAMA
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
MOBILE REG APT CLOUDY    56  49  77 SE6       30.15R                  
BROOKLEY FIELD CLOUDY    56  51  84 CALM      30.16R                  
USA CAMPUS*    NOT AVBL                                               
DOG RIVER*     NOT AVBL                                               

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
GULF SHORES    PTCLDY    64  61  90 SE10G18   30.14R                  

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 500am CST, Sunday December 17, 2017

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 41 degrees north, near 46 degrees central, and near 56 degrees south. Current sky conditions are cloudy north, mostly cloudy central, and cloudy south. In the north, relative humidity is near 70%, and the dew point is near 32 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 47%, and the dew point is near 27 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 77%, and the dew point is near 49 degrees. Winds are from the east at 3 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the northeast at 3 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southeast at 6 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category north, no stress category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 56 degrees at Mobile and Brookely Field. The lowest temperature is 36 degrees at Gadsden.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For UPPER MOBILE County
Hazardous report currently not available
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

Current FORECAST not available 12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                              ALABAMA                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   DEC 22-26    DEC 24-30    DEC       DEC-FEB                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:     Normal       Normal      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Below      Below                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Sunday December 17, 2017 the 351th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination -23.380000
Distance 0.999725 AU
Rise 07:47 EST Set 17:43 EST
Transit Meridian 12:44 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:20 EST Ends 18:09 EST

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

DECEMBER 17TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1884...
A three week blockade of snow began at Portland OR. A record December total
of 34 inches was received. (David Ludlum)
...1924...
A severe icestorm struck central Illinois. It coated the ground with nearly
two inches of glaze at Springfield. The storm caused 21 million dollars
damage along with much hardship. Ice was on the trees until the 4th of
January, and electricity was not restored until January 10th. (David
Ludlum)
...1929...
An icestorm in western New York State resulted in much damage and hardship.
A Buffalo report stated, "one was kept awake by the breaking limbs, which
snapped off with a report much louder than a rifle shot." (17th-18th) (The
Weather Channel)
...1987...
A storm in the southwestern U.S. brought heavy rain and heavy snow to parts
of California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah and New Mexico. Charleston NV was
blanketed with 12 inches of snow. Lake Havasu City AZ was drenched with
2.26 inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
...1988...
Squalls brought locally heavy snow to the southeastern shores of Lake
Michigan. Totals in Michigan ranged up to 14 inches at Harvey. Totals in
Ohio ranged up to 16 inches at Chardon. (The National Weather Summary)
(Storm Data)
...1989...
Twenty-one cities from Kentucky to Pennsylvania reported record low
temperatures for the date, including Columbus OH with a reading of 12
degrees below zero. Heavy snow continued in the Colorado Rockies. Vail
received 65 inches of snow between the 14th and the 18th of December.
Steamboat Springs was buried under 74 inches, and reported a total of 108
inches of snow between the 10th and the 18th of the month. (The National
Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky