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Upper Baldwin County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts





US Weekly Rainfall Departure



US Weekly Temperature Departure
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.


.SHORT TERM...
Tonight through Saturday.

--Increasing cloudiness with spells of showers overnight into 
Saturday; cooler temperatures inbound--

The northern perimeter of 500mb ridging draped over the region 
today/Friday will get shunted southward during the period as a 
large upper trough moves through the Great Lakes region. This will
aid in the progression of a front through Central Alabama. 
Forecast guidance is in agreement in modeling a band of rain 
showers sweeping through the region from northwest to southeast, 
first arriving across our northwest counties overnight/early 
morning, and exiting from our southeast counties late 
afternoon/early evening. This won't be an all-day rain event, and 
many communities will have a portion of the day that is rain-free, 
though cloudy, either early or later in the day depending on 
location. Most of the rain should be light as well.

Saturday's highs will be noticeably cooler and the same will be true 
for Saturday night's lows in wake of the frontal passage.

89^GSatterwhite

.LONG TERM...
Sunday through Friday.

No changes were made to the forecast for the middle to latter
portion of next week. 12Z operational and ensemble model runs 
continue to exhibit variability regarding the evolution, timing,
and track of a potential storm system. It appears rain/storms are
in the cards for a portion of the region at some point, though.

89^GSatterwhite

Previous long-term discussion: 

The cold air advection during the overnight hours Saturday will 
have a noticeable impact as low temperatures Sunday morning will 
be 15-20 degrees colder than Saturday morning. By Sunday afternoon
the highs across the area are only expected to reach into the 
60s, very close to the low temps Saturday morning. 

Ridging builds in across the Southeastern States as a surface high 
slides through TN/KY and into the Coastal Mid-Atlantic States by 
early Monday morning. Synoptic scale subsidence will lead to 
clearing skies during this time, leading to effective radiational 
cooling Sunday night into Monday morning, which will allow 
temperatures to drop into the low 40s area-wide as we wake up for 
the beginning of the work week Monday morning. Some locations in the 
far north will likely drop below 40. The current forecast has our 
northern counties in the 37-40 degree range, which is still above 
the threshold for any frost advisories (36 degrees). We'll have to 
monitor the forecast trends in those northern counties since we'll 
be getting close to the advisory temperatures.

The center of the 850mb ridge has shifted off the Carolina Coast by 
Monday afternoon, veering our winds more southwesterly to southerly, 
though the speeds will remain pretty low, so I'm not sure how much 
moisture advection will take place. At the very least, it will cut-
off the cold air advection, which will allow our diurnal temperature 
ranges to moderate back to near-normal values (highs in 70s, lows in 
50s). This takes place under generally zonal flow aloft, which 
continues into Tuesday before ridging begins to build in again by 
mid-week ahead of a deepening trough over the Rockies. This will 
keep our weather more seasonable and dry through the first half of 
next week. The forecast towards the end of the week becomes more 
uncertain as models have struggled with the evolution of that trough 
in the Rockies. Guidance does suggest that another shortwave will 
eject from the trough at some point Thursday or Friday, leading to 
increased rain chances across Central AL, but details are uncertain; 
therefore, I've only carried 30-40% PoPs for the end of the extended 
period. 

25/Owen


Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For UPPER BALDWIN County
800 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018
COASTAL ALABAMA
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
MOBILE REG APT FAIR      76  74  93 SE5       30.12S                  
BROOKLEY FIELD FAIR      79  77  94 CALM      30.13R                  
USA CAMPUS*      N/A     77  75  94 CALM      30.12S                  
DOG RIVER*       N/A     77  75  94 SE3         N/A                   

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
GULF SHORES    MOCLDY    75  74  96 CALM      30.12S                  

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 800pm CDT, Friday October 19, 2018

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 66 degrees north, near 74 degrees central, and near 76 degrees south. Current sky conditions are fair north, mostly cloudy central, and fair south. In the north, relative humidity is near 75%, and the dew point is near 58 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 68%, and the dew point is near 63 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 74 degrees. Winds are calm north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the south at 8 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southeast at 5 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 79 degrees at Brookely Field. The lowest temperature is 66 degrees at Decatur.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For UPPER BALDWIN County
Hazardous report currently not available
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

Current FORECAST not available 12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                              ALABAMA                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   OCT 25-29 OCT 27-NOV 2    OCT       OCT-DEC                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Below        Below                                            
 Precipitation:      Above        Above                                            

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Friday October 19, 2018 the 292th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination -10.320000
Distance 0.999721 AU
Rise 07:56 EDT Set 19:09 EDT
Transit Meridian 13:32 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 07:32 EDT Ends 19:33 EDT

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

///////////////////////////
OCTOBER 19TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1844...
The famous "Lower Great Lakes Storm" occurred. Southwesterly winds were at
hurricane force for five hours, driving lake waters into downtown Buffalo
NY. The storm drowned 200 persons. (David Ludlum)
...1961...
Rain changed to a record early season, heavy wet snow over the southern
mountains of West Virginia. Leaves were still on trees, resulting in the
worst forest disaster since the fires of 1952 and 953. One to two feet of
snow fell near Summersville and Richwood. (19th-20th) (The Weather Channel)
...1984...
Thunderstorms deluged the town of Odem TX (located 15 miles northwest of
Corpus Christi) with 25 inches of rain in just three and a half hours. Most
businesses in Odem were flooded, as were 1000 homes in nearby Sinton. (The
Weather Channel)
...1987...
A cold front brought rainshowers to parts of the central U.S., and ushered
cool Canadian air into the Great Plains Region. Daytime highs were only in
the 30s in North Dakota and eastern Montana. (The National Weather Summary)
...1988...
Thunderstorms produced high winds in eastern Colorado, with gusts to 63 mph
reported at La Junta. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
...1989...
Record breaking snows fell across northern and central Indiana. Totals
ranged up to 10.5 inches at Kokomo, and 9.3 inches was reported at
Indianapolis. The 8.8 inch total at South Bend was a record for the month
as a whole. Up to seven inches of snow fell in extreme southern Lower
Michigan, and up to six inches fell in southwestern Ohio. The heavy wet
snow downed many trees and power lines. Half the city of Cincinnati OH was
without electricity during the morning hours. Temperatures dipped below
freezing across much of the Great Plains Region. Twenty cities, including
fourteen in Texas, reported record low temperatures for the date. North
Platte NE reported a record low of 11 degrees. In Florida, four cities
reported record high temperatures for the date. The record high of 92
degrees at Miami also marked a record fourteen days of 90 degree weather in
October, and 116 such days for the year. (The National Weather Summary)


Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky