A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
Today and Tonight.
Currently watching a cold front slide through the area this morning.
Based on obs at 2 am the front appears to be south of I-85 and
should be out of the area by sunrise. Generally only will see
scattered to broken high level clouds behind this front along with
cooler temperatures. Highs in be in the 40s across the north to
low 50s in the far southeast. Lows tonight will drop back below
freezing along with clearing skies and calm winds.
Saturday through Friday.
Upper-level ridging will temporarily build over the area on
Saturday, downstream of the cutoff upper low currently over
northwest Mexico that will be ejecting northeastward into Texas as
a shortwave trough in the southern stream. A dry air mass will
remain in place during the day on Saturday with only a steady
stream of high clouds expected. Low-level flow above the surface
will switch to southwesterly as low-level ridging moves eastward.
But at the surface, high pressure initially centered over the area
will only slowly drift eastward towards the Atlantic coast,
keeping surface winds out of the southeast, and the better warm
air advection will hold off until Saturday night. This should keep
high temperatures mainly in the 50s.
Deep layer southwesterly flow will increase substantially
Saturday night as the shortwave moves into the ArkLaTex region
with strong warm air and moisture advection as well as isentropic
lift just above the surface. However a very dry air mass will
remain at the surface. A large complex of showers will develop
over Texas and move eastward in association with a 40-50 kt LLJ,
as a weak surface low that develops along the stalled front in the
western Gulf also lifts northward. Most models agree that this
activity will remain in Mississippi prior to 12Z, but with
increasing moisture in the west and the potential for either
isolated to scattered showers ahead of this activity, or a
possible faster timing, have kept in some lower rain chances in
the west after 3AM. This also agrees with SREF probabilities and
other ensembles. A strong warm nose aloft will keep precipitation
all liquid. Low temperatures will probably be reached between
midnight and 3 AM, before rising slightly towards sunrise. Mainly
upper 30s to low 40s are expected, with some low to mid 30s in the
cooler northeastern areas.
The negatively tilted shortwave will lift quickly off to the
northeast, reaching the Ohio Valley by midday while grazing
northwest Alabama during the morning hours. The remnants of
Saturday night's activity should move into western and northern
portions of the area Sunday morning, maintained by the low level
jet. It may weaken with eastward extent by midday as the LLJ
weakens and the upper-level forcing lifts to the northeast. As
this rain falls into the remnant dry air mass at the surface,
temperatures may remain in the 40s across the northwest due to
evaporative cooling. The main focus for shower activity will shift
to the southwest counties by Sunday afternoon, as additional
activity developing near the coast lifts northeastward in the deep
layer southwesterly flow amid increasing deep layer moisture and
PWATs. A surface warm front will also attempt to lift northward,
but its northward progression will be slowed initially due to
evaporative cooling as precipitation falls into the dry air mass
north of the front. This will all result in a tricky temperatures
forecast, as highs may struggle to reach 50 across the far north,
while reaching the upper 60s in the far southeast. Models indicate
very little in the way of MUCAPE and will keep a mention of
thunder out of the forecast for this period.
Sunday night through Monday night:
The ECMWF has generally trended towards the GFS/Canadian and EPS
ensemble mean with keeping more of a phased trough over the Desert
Southwest and keeping a moist southwesterly flow across the area
for the first half of next week. Yesterday's 12Z ECMWF trended
wetter but then tonight's 00Z run trended drier at least for the
Monday/Monday night period, with uncertainty over the position of
the front and dry air to its north. Overall though, confidence is
increasing that this period will be wet and unsettled, and will
stick closer to the GFS/Canadian during this period which also has
the support of the EPS ensemble mean. Continued deep layer
southwesterly flow between the trough over the Desert Southwest
and a strong ridge near the Bahamas will allow the warm front to
move northward Sunday night into Monday, and temperatures should
rise through the night Sunday night in most locations. Deep layer
moisture, isentropic lift, and broad upper-level lift from the
right entrance region of an upper-level jet streak will promote
high rain chances. Some weak instability will develop which will
allow for a couple thunderstorms as well. Depending on
precipitation trends, if some pockets of heating develop highs
could be near 70 in the southern counties Monday afternoon.
Couldn't rule out an isolated strong strong to severe storm with
gusty winds/small hail during this time period in the southern
counties given some instability and deep layer shear. But
warm/saturated profiles aloft, limited low-level shear, and lack
of a focusing mechanism are expected to prevent any organized
threat of severe storms.
PWATs in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range for a somewhat prolonged period
of time, near the climatological maximum for December, and
unidrectional flow does raise some concern for cell training and
locally heavy rainfall. Current WPC QPF indicates area-averaged
amounts of 1 to 2.6 inches through Tuesday. Flash flood guidance
is high due to recent dry conditions with drought currently in
place across the western counties. Streamflows are running below
normal in the west and near normal elsewhere. Most areas could
handle 1 or 2 rounds of heavy rain, but will have to monitor for
flooding if multiple rounds of heavy rain occur. Expect some
localized flooding in poor drainage areas, but confidence in any
widespread flooding is too low to mention in the HWO at this time.
Will continue to monitor QPF trends closely, however.
Tuesday through Wednesday:
Models disagree on whether the trough will push eastward across
the area in one or 2 pieces. Will continue to go with the GFS idea
of a cold frontal passage on Tuesday with drier air for
Wednesday, but the latest ECMWF and its ensemble has trended
wetter for Wednesday so will have to see it that trend continues.
Similar to Monday a conditional potential for an isolated strong
to severe storm exists along the front if some instability
develops, but weak/veered low-level flow does not appear
supportive of any organized potential.
Models seem to be coming into better agreement on another trough
moving into the western CONUS during the second half of the week,
with a strong cold front moving through on Friday. Still too far
out to determine any details regarding whether or not there will
be any threat of severe weather. Also, at this time,
precipitation is expected to move out before any cold air arrives,
but this is still a week away.
Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For TALLAPOOSA County
1000 AM CST FRI DEC 15 2017
EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
ANNISTON MOSUNNY 39 23 52 VRB5G18 30.18R
ALEXANDER CITY CLOUDY 39 29 65 N14G22 30.16R WCI 31
AUBURN CLOUDY 41 33 73 NW12 30.14R
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 900am CST, Friday December 15, 2017
Across Alabama...temperatures are near 33 degrees north, near 35 degrees central, and near 46 degrees south. Current sky conditions are cloudy north, cloudy central, and cloudy south. In the north, relative humidity is near 75%, and the dew point is near 26 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 64%, and the dew point is near 24 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 68%, and the dew point is near 36 degrees. Winds are from the northwest at 14 mph north, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. The wind chill is near 23 degrees north. Winds are from the northwest at 9 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The wind chill is near 28 degrees central. Winds are from the north at 8 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category north, no stress category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 47 degrees at Brookely Field. The lowest temperature is 33 degrees at Huntsville and Decatur.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
U.S. Radar Map,
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For TALLAPOOSA County, AL
423 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017
DAY ONE Outlook through Tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Saturday through Thursday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For TALLAPOOSA County, Alabama
1002 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017
Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s. Northwest winds
5 to 10 mph.
TONIGHT Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. North winds
around 5 mph.
SATURDAY Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. Northeast winds
around 5 mph in the morning then becoming light.
SATURDAY NIGHT Not as cool. Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper
30s. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
SUNDAY Cloudy. A 50 percent chance of rain showers in the
afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT Warmer. Rain showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Near steady temperature in the mid 50s. Chance of
rain 80 percent.
MONDAY Rain showers and chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the
upper 60s. Chance of rain 80 percent.
MONDAY NIGHT Rain showers likely and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
TUESDAY Rain showers likely and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
TUESDAY NIGHT Colder. Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance
of rain showers. Lows in the mid 40s.
WEDNESDAY Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of rain
showers. Highs around 60.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
THURSDAY Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain
showers. Highs in the lower 60s.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
DEC 20-24 DEC 22-28 DEC DEC-FEB
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Above Above Above Above
Precipitation: Above Above Below Below
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Friday December 15, 2017 the 349th Day of Year
Distance 0.999725 AU
Rise 07:45 EST Set 17:42 EST
Transit Meridian 12:43 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:19 EST Ends 18:08 EST
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
The first of triple storms hit Massachusetts Bay. The storm produced whole
gales, and more than 20 inches of snow in interior New England. There was
great loss of life at Gloucester MA. (David Ludlum)
An intense cold front swept across the eastern U.S. The cold front produced
heavy rain in Louisiana, and heavy snow in the northeastern U.S. (David
A record December snowstorm buried Buffalo NY under 36.6 inches of snow,
with unofficial totals south of the city ranging up to 70 inches. Travel
was brought to a halt by the storm. (14th-17th) (The Weather Channel)
A major winter storm hit the Great Lakes Region, intensifying explosively
as it crossed northern Illinois. High winds and heavy snow created blizzard
conditions in southeastern Wisconsin. Winds gusted to 73 mph, and snowfall
totals ranged up to 17 inches at LaFarge. The barometric pressure at
Chicago IL dropped three quarters of an inch in six hours to 28.96 inches,
a record low reading for December. Up to a foot of snow blanketed northern
Illinois, and winds in the Chicago area gusted to 75 mph. O'Hare Airport in
Chicago was closed for several hours, for only the fourth time in twenty
years. High winds derailed train cars at Avon IN. Light winds and partly
sunny skies were reported near the center of the storm, a feature typical
of tropical storms. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
High pressure in the Pacific Northwest and low pressure in the southwestern
U.S. combined to produced high winds from Utah to California. Winds gusting
to 70 mph in the San Francisco area left nearly 300,000 residents without
electricity. Winds in Utah gusted to 105 mph at Centerville. (The National
Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
A couple of low pressure systems spread heavy snow across the northeastern
U.S. Up to two feet of snow was reported along Lake Erie in northeastern
Ohio, and up to ten inches was reported in Connecticut. Heavy snow squalls
developed over Michigan for the third day in a row. Three Oaks MI reported
25 inches of snow in two days. Twenty-six cities in the north central U.S.
reported record low temperatures for the date. The low of 10 degrees below
zero at Wichita KS was a December record for that location. (The National
Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky