A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
Today and Tonight.
Fairly widespread rain event on Sunday has provided the area with a
fairly uniform moisture level and the development of areas of dense
fog/low clouds is pretty much across the entire area. We do have a
frontal zone south of Montgomery but north of Troy and Eufaula.
There is a 13 degree temperature difference between these sites.
There will be a slow start to the diurnal temperatures this morning
due to the low clouds and fog, but we should still get into the 50s
and 60s north of the front and possibly near 70 degrees in the far
southeast, including Eufaula. This slow increase in temperatures
will also impede the initial development of additional showers and
should be confined to generally the south today. Cannot rule out a
thunderstorm or two in the south, especially along and south of the
boundary. Severe is not expected. Did include intermittent drizzle
through the morning and into the afternoon across the north, where
showers are not anticipated, but roads could be wet due to the
drizzle. More fog develops tonight and will once have the
possibility of becoming dense. Have enough confidence to include in
the HWO but not issue a dense fog advisory for Monday night yet.
There is a slight chance that some clouds and light rain showers
make it into the northwest by 3 am so reduced the dense wording
there to just patchy fog and/or light rain. Better coverage is
expected in the long term and will be discussed in that section.
Tuesday through Monday.
Split flow pattern continues on Tuesday as the southern stream
cutoff low begins to eject northeast as a compact/potent
negatively tilted shortwave trough, Meanwhile the strong
subtropical ridge centered near Cuba continues to create southwest
flow aloft over Central Alabama, while a northern stream trough
will be located over eastern Canada. Increased southwesterly flow
ahead of the shortwave will result in an increase in moisture. A
developing west to east band of enhanced moisture and isentropic
lift aloft will move into the area from the southwest, to the
north of the warm front which will start to lift northward ahead
of developing low pressure over Texas. Best rain chances in the
morning look to be in the west and especially northwest, with rain
becoming likely along and north of I-20 by afternoon. A few
rumbles of thunder are possible with some weak elevated
instability but any surface-based instability looks to hold off
until later. Rainfall amounts through the daytime hours will be
mainly a half inch or less. Temperatures will be impacted by
clouds and rain north of the front, with highs in the upper 50s to
low 60s north, and near 70 in the south.
The shortwave trough will lift quickly northeastward towards the
vicinity of Memphis by Wednesday morning. It may de-amplify a
little as it becomes squeezed between the ridge to the south and
trough to the north, though the ECMWF shows little in the way of
weakening. High PWATs impinging on the warm front and increasing
upper-level forcing will continue to drive a west to east band of
moderate to heavy rain whose southern extent will include our
northern counties. Models continue to keep the heaviest QPF axis
and associated flash flood threat north of the forecast area, so
expect any localized flooding threat to be confined to poor
drainage areas given recent abnormally dry to drought conditions
across the area.
A surface low will deepen some as it moves into far northern MS
by the early morning hours. A broken line of convection will
develop along the Pacific front extending south from the low over
Texas, and additional scattered development will probably occur in
the broad moist warm sector ahead of the front. South of the
shortwave, a 70-80 kt westerly mid-level speed max and 50 kt LLJ
will be present. Shear oriented almost perpendicular to the front
will favor a cellular convective mode, as appears evident in the
streaks in the ECMWF QPF output. With dewpoints around 65, CAPE
will be around 400 J/kg. A mid-level dry intrusion may also
contribute to the release of potential instability. Overall, the
setup appears favorable for low-topped/mini supercells in a high
shear low CAPE environment, with the potential for a brief tornado
or two given the low-level shear and helicity. This will
largely depend on how long surface winds can remain partially
backed due to isallobaric forcing associated with the surface
low. SPC has indicated a marginal risk in their Day 3 outlook, and
will add a low confidence tornado mention to the HWO given the
potential nocturnal nature of the threat and dynamic nature of the
system. There are some timing differences with the NAM being on
the slow side as is typical. The GFS and ECMWF indicate the
activity moving in prior to 12z, so will start the threat around 3
AM which is technically in the Day 2 period. The threat will
diminish later in the morning as winds quickly veer to
southwesterly and the system moves quickly eastward, ending by
noon if not a couple hours before.
Dry conditions move in quickly by later Wednesday
afternoon/Wednesday evening and continue Thursday. A weak wedge
that temporarily develops along the east coast may keep the
eastern counties a little cooler on Thursday.
Thursday night through Monday:
Attention then turns to the next southern stream trough digging
into the western CONUS, eventually phasing with a northern stream
trough and forming a deep trough across much of the CONUS,
downstream of a high amplitude ridge over the Pacific. A cold
front will approach as a surface low lifts into the Great Lakes,
with expansive precipitation along it. The GFS is more progressive
in bringing this front through the area Friday and Friday night,
while the ECMWF stalls it across the area on Saturday, then lifts
it north of the area through Sunday, then brings it back into the
area on Monday. Meanwhile an outbreak of arctic air occurs behind
the front in association with strong high pressure over the
Plains/Midwest. The less progressive solution given by the ECMWF
is currently favored based on ensemble output and a strong
downstream ridge developing over the Atlantic off the Southeast
Coast which will be amplified by latent heat release from
precipitation ahead of the trough. Will have to keep an eye on
another marginal/low instability severe threat along the front.
But the ECMWF's depiction of a narrow corridor of higher dew
points, the decelerating/stalling nature of the front, and the
amplified nature of the trough do not look particulary favorable.
Taking a look at the forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day,
uncertainty is high with the exact position of the front. This
results in various deterministic model runs with solutions ranging
from cool and dry to warm and wet and everything in between. Odds
seem to favor generally warmer conditions right now over Central
Alabama, versus any wintry mixture, at least through the daytime
hours on Christmas.
Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For RUSSELL County
1200 PM CST MON DEC 18 2017
EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
ANNISTON CLOUDY 57 53 86 SW7 30.20F
6HR MIN TEMP: 47; 6HR MAX TEMP: 57;
ALEXANDER CITY CLOUDY 57 57 100 SW3 30.20F
6HR MIN TEMP: 49; 6HR MAX TEMP: 57;
AUBURN CLOUDY 61 58 90 NW6 30.20F
6HR MIN TEMP: 54; 6HR MAX TEMP: 61; 6HR PCP: TRACE;
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 1200pm CST, Monday December 18, 2017
Across Alabama...temperatures are near 54 degrees north, near 56 degrees central, and near 69 degrees south. Current sky conditions are cloudy north, cloudy central, and cloudy south. In the north, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 52 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 86%, and the dew point is near 52 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 90%, and the dew point is near 66 degrees. There is patchy fog south. Winds are from the west at 6 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 3 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category north, no stress category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 71 degrees at Brookely Field. The lowest temperature is 51 degrees at Gadsden.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
U.S. Radar Map,
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For RUSSELL County, AL
420 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017
DAY ONE Today and Tonight.
Patchy dense fog with visibilities below one mile will continue
through 9 AM this morning across all of Central Alabama.
Patchy dense fog with visibilities below one mile will re-develop
again tonight across all of Central Alabama.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Tuesday through Sunday.
Patchy dense fog with visibilities below one mile will be possible
through 9 AM Tuesday morning.
There is a marginal risk of severe storms late Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning across much of Central Alabama. A brief tornado or
two and isolated damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible
between 3 AM and noon on Wednesday.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For RUSSELL County, Alabama
1202 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2017
Cloudy with chance of rain showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Near steady temperature in the lower 60s. West
winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
TONIGHT Cloudy. Intermittent drizzle or slight chance of rain
showers in the evening. Patchy dense fog in the evening, then
areas of dense fog after midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. Light
winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
TUESDAY Cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. A 20 percent chance
of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s. West
winds around 5 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT Cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the evening,
then chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms after
midnight. Near steady temperature in the lower 60s. South winds
5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
WEDNESDAY Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then showers
likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs
in the lower 70s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain
WEDNESDAY NIGHT Cooler. Mostly cloudy in the evening then
becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 50.
THURSDAY Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 60s.
THURSDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s.
FRIDAY Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs in the upper 60s.
FRIDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the lower 50s.
SATURDAY Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly
cloudy. A 30 percent chance of rain showers. Highs around 70.
SATURDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain.
Lows in the lower 50s.
SUNDAY Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs in the upper 60s.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
DEC 23-27 DEC 25-DEC 31 DEC DEC-FEB
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Normal Below Above Above
Precipitation: Above Normal Below Below
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Monday December 18, 2017 the 352th Day of Year
Distance 0.999725 AU
Rise 07:47 EST Set 17:43 EST
Transit Meridian 12:45 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:20 EST Ends 18:10 EST
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
A tornado swept across Jackson County, Williamson County and Franklin
County in southern Illinois killing eleven persons. (David Ludlum)
A heavy lake-effect snow blanketed the southern and southeast shores of
Lake Michigan leaving up to 22 inches of snow at Valparaiso IND. (David
Record cold hit the north central states. At Havre MT the mercury plunged
to a record reading of 34 degrees below zero. (Sandra and TI Richard
Sanders - 1987)
A storm over southern California left up to 16 inches of snow in the
mountains and upper deserts, with 13 inches reported at Lancaster. Edwards
Air Force Base was closed, and Interstate 5 was closed from Castaic to the
Tehachapis Mountains. (18th-19th) (The Weather Channel)
A strong winter storm, which developed off the coast of New Jersey and
moved out to sea, lashed the northeastern U.S. with high winds, heavy rain,
and heavy snow. The storm left snowfall amounts of up to 30 inches in
Vermont, 24 inches in Massachusetts, and 20 inches in New Hampshire. The
highest rainfall amounts approached four inches in southern New England,
where winds gusted to 70 mph. (Storm Data)
A weakening storm moved into the Rocky Mountain Region producing six inches
of snow at the Platoro Reservoir in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado. The
storm then spread rain and drizzle across the Southern High Plains into the
Middle Mississippi Valley, with thunderstorms over Texas. (Storm Data) (The
National Weather Summary)
Warm weather prevailed in the central U.S. while cool weather prevailed
across the eastern states. Sheridan WY, with a record warm afternoon high
of 68 degrees, was seven degrees warmer than Key West FL. (The National
A winter storm moving out of the Great Plains Region spread freezing rain,
sleet and snow across parts of the southeastern U.S. Freezing rain resulted
in 170 auto accidents in the Memphis area during the evening hours.
Unseasonably warm weather continued ahead of arctic cold front. Miami FL
equalled their record for December with an afternoon high of 87 degrees.
(Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky