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Perry County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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The warm front has moved through much of Central AL this morning.
The frontal boundary can be denoted in the ground clutter from
KBMX. Behind this warm front, we've been able to mix out a lot of
the stratus that had been hanging around this morning resulting in
clearing skies and sunshine. Here at EET, we've warmed to 75 over
65 with the dewpoints mixing out more (dewpoint was 67 an hour ago
or so). To our west, a boundary has moved through MS and is
entering western portions of Central AL. This boundary has been
able to tap into the instability in the wake of the warm front,
sparking some convection. This is expected to continue to move
eastward across the area, initiating some thunderstorms over the
next few hours. The 16z HRRR initialized well, and has a few of
these thunderstorms developing through about 4-5pm CT. Severity of
these storms is uncertain. With increasing instability this
afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised to see some of these storm
produce hail and gusty winds. The 18z special sounding from BMX 
is showing right at 3000 J/kg CAPE, but the LLJ is still further 
west, closer to the dryline in MS, so the low level shear isn't 
impressive. Therefore, the tornado threat with these scattered 
storms is limited.

The main concern remains for later this afternoon/evening and into
the nighttime hours. The dryline has moved across the MS river in
the past hour and will continue to push eastward. The higher
resolution models and convective-allowing models show a broken
line of individual cells developing along this dryline and moving
through AL. By this time, the LLJ will have moved into the area as
well, creating quite a bit of curvature in the forecast 
hodographs. 0-3km SRH is expected to exceed 400 by 7pm (0-1km SRH
exceed 250) across much of North- Central AL, which is what led 
to the increase to a Moderate Risk. Expected impacts remain very 
similar to previous thinking - tornadoes (some may be strong), 
large hail up to tennis ball sized, and damaging winds. 

This line of storms will move from the northwest to southeast
through tonight and should move out of our area by the midnight to
2am timeframe. 


Previous short-term discussion:Today and Tonight.

Confidence is increasing in the severe weather potential for this 
afternoon and evening. The threat for tornadoes has also increased, 
and a strong tornado or two will be possible across northern 
portions of Central Alabama as well. It now appears that there may 
be two waves of severe weather, with a first wave during the 
early/mid afternoon hours which is more isolated/conditional, 
followed by the main wave during the late afternoon/evening hours. 
The severe weather starting time was bumped earlier to 2 PM to 
account for the first wave, while the second wave has trended a bit 
slower resulting in the ending time being pushed back to 2 AM, 
mainly for southern/eastern areas. More on these waves below.

A lead shortwave is currently pushing into western portions of the 
state, indicated by pronounced drying in mid-level water vapor 
imagery. This is producing some light showers north of the warm 
front, with an MCS now well southeast of the area over the FL 
panhandle and southern GA. The radar is clear over southern MS and 
LA, suggesting the warm front should not have much trouble lifting 
northward. Scattered clusters of warm advection thunderstorms are 
located over northern MS and western TN. It's not out of the 
question that these could clip far northwest portions of Central 
Alabama during the early morning hours with the possibility of hail. 
Further west, a broken pre-frontal line of storms is located over 
far eastern OK and into far NE TX ahead of the main upper low of 
interest. These are expected to lift well northeast of Central AL. 
Will note that they extend a bit further south than expected, so 
that is something to monitor, but the southern end will probably 
weaken as it encounters a more stable air mass over AR and northern 
LA. The surface low is located over northern OK, with an occluded 
front extending southward to a triple point near where OK/AR/TX come 
together. A cold front/dry line extends southward from the triple 
point. A warm front extends eastward all the way into far southern 
Central Alabama.

Patchy fog will be possible this morning along and north of the warm 
front with a low stratus deck over the area as well. The warm front 
should lift northward this morning with broken sunshine developing. 
This will result in heating, and combined with moist low-levels and 
steep mid-level lapse rates associated with an EML, CAPE values of 
2000-2500 J/kg will develop, with 60 kts of 0-6 km deep layer shear. 
This high CAPE/high shear parameter space is supportive of a 
significant severe threat. Models indicate a weak wave at 700mb 
lifting across the area over the open warm sector during the 
afternoon hours, ahead of the main upper-level forcing associated 
with the upper low and the cold front/dry line at the surface. 
Almost all models show some light QPF developing with this feature, 
but differ regarding whether there will be any deep convection or 
just scattered showers. The 3km NAM and a couple runs of the HRRR 
suggest isolated convection/supercells are possible. This will be at 
peak heating and the cap is not particularly strong, so it at least 
seems plausible. All modes of severe weather would be possible with 
any isolated discrete supercells that do form. Also of note is a 
well defined fine line on radar that the storms in northeast TX are 
forming on, which may be indicative of an outflow boundary/bore, 
which could cause early initiation as it moves eastward. This first 
wave complicates the timing graphic, resulting in a much broader 
threat timeframe, with the first wave starting as early as 2 PM. 
It's also unclear what effect this first wave will have on the 
second wave, but current thinking is that it won't have much of an 

The second main/most widespread wave of storms will develop over 
northern MS/northwest AL as height falls and the mid-level speed max 
associated with the upper low and low amplitude trough interact with 
the dry line at the surface. Shear profiles favor a fast-moving 
broken line of supercells that will race eastward across the area 
during the late afternoon and evening. Model consensus excluding the 
GFS now indicates that winds ahead of this line will remain backed 
in a southerly direction, which is also indicated in the HREF mean 
winds. This results in greater 0-1km SRH and more favorable critical 
angles. The line of supercells looks to cross the area during the 
favorable early evening transition period of increased low-level 
shear. Therefore, it appears that the threat for tornadoes including 
the potential for a strong tornado or two across the northern half 
of Central Alabama has increased. This will ultimately depend on 
storm scale details and what effects the first wave has. The threat 
of large hail, including significant hail >2" diameter continues 
given the fat CAPE profiles, and many SARS significant hail analogs. 
Isolated hail up to baseball size may be possible. The threat will 
end by midnight for many, except for southeast and far south-central 
portions of Central Alabama where it will continue through around 
2AM. The enhanced risk area in our local impact graphics remains on 
track, and lines up well with the >40% neighborhood probability of 
updraft helicity > 75 m2/s2 in the HREF CAM ensemble. Not everyone 
will see severe storms today given the scattered nature of the 
storms, but those that do will see some intense storms. Everyone 
should remain weather aware.


Tuesday through Sunday.

As the main wave of showers and storms exit the area, the main 
upper low will swing into the area on Tuesday and slowly work 
through the area. Scattered light showers will be possible 
throughout the day Tuesday and into Tuesday night along with 
cooler temperatures. Overall the consensus of the models clear the
rain out around Midnight, before the temperatures can drop into 
the 30s. 

Drier air filters into the region on Wednesday and will hang out
for several days. Temperatures will be on the cooler side with
highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s. We will need to
monitor Wednesday and Thursday morning for possible freezes, but
Thursday appears most probable for at least a frost across the
northern 2/3rds of the area. Will continue to mention the cold in
the HWO for Thursday morning. Temperatures will continue to modify
through Friday with highs in the 60s on Thursday and 60s/70s on

Rain will begin to filter back into the region Friday night into
Saturday as the next system works closer to the area. There are
quite some model inconsistencies right now as the GFS tries to
push a front through Saturday night into Sunday and then lift it
back north, while the Euro keeps the front draped across the north
and never really pushes through. Either way we will will remain on
the active side of the weather and will continue to have
precipitation chances in through the end of the period. 


Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For PERRY County
100 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018
BIRMINGHAM     PTSUNNY   73  62  68 SW9       29.72S                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  60; 6HR MAX TEMP:  74;                                

MONTGOMERY     CLOUDY    74  67  78 VRB6      29.71F                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  65; 6HR MAX TEMP:  75;                                

SHELBY CO ARPT PTSUNNY   75  64  68 S13       29.69F                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  60; 6HR MAX TEMP:  76;                                

MAXWELL AFB    CLOUDY    72  65  81 S3        29.70F                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  62; 6HR MAX TEMP:  72; 6HR PCP: TRACE;                

GREENVILLE     CLOUDY    73  66  78 S6        29.71F                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  65; 6HR MAX TEMP:  75;                                

SELMA          CLOUDY    73  66  78 SW7       29.70F                  
PRATTVILLE     CLOUDY    73  67  83 S5        29.72F                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  63; 6HR MAX TEMP:  73; 6HR PCP:  0.01;                

BESSEMER       CLOUDY    72  65  78 SW10      29.70F                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  59; 6HR MAX TEMP:  73;                                

TALLADEGA      CLOUDY    71  64  77 S5        29.72F                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  59; 6HR MAX TEMP:  72;                                

PELL CITY      CLOUDY    72  66  83 SW5       29.71F                  
MARION         CLOUDY    72  67  85 S9        29.69F                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  63; 6HR MAX TEMP:  73;                                

SYLACAUGA      PTSUNNY   76  67  76 S9        29.72S                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  62; 6HR MAX TEMP:  77;                                

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 100pm CDT, Monday March 19, 2018

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 62 degrees north, near 73 degrees central, and near 74 degrees south. Current sky conditions are cloudy north, partly sunny central, and cloudy south. In the north, relative humidity is near 90%, and the dew point is near 59 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 68%, and the dew point is near 62 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 91%, and the dew point is near 71 degrees. There is patchy fog south. Winds are from the east at 5 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 9 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 10 mph with gusts at 16 mph south, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 78 degrees at Dothan. The lowest temperature is 60 degrees at Muscle Shoals.

Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For PERRY County, AL

1138 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

 DAY ONE  Outlook Through Tonight.

Scattered severe storms are possible across all of Central Alabama 
this afternoon, ahead of an approaching front. The primary threats 
with these storms are damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.

A more significant threat of severe storms, including strong 
tornadoes, is expected late this afternoon and tonight as a front 
moves through the area. These storms will move from west to east, 
entering northwest Central Alabama as early as 4PM and exiting 
southeast Central Alabama as late as 2AM Tuesday morning. The 
greatest potential for strong tornadoes is north of a line from 
Sulligent to Birmingham to Anniston. However, tornadoes, large hail,
and damaging winds are possible area wide.  

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Tuesday through Sunday.

Cooler air moving in behind the system will result in the potential 
for lows at or below freezing across parts of north central Alabama 
Wednesday night into Thursday morning.


Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will be  
needed through early Tuesday morning.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For PERRY County, Alabama
102 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Mostly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms early in the afternoon, then thunderstorms likely late in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds and large hail late in the afternoon. Highs around 80. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Mostly cloudy. Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds and large hail in the evening. Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Cooler, cloudy. A 40 percent chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 60s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph.

Colder. Mostly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Lows in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph.

Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Clear. Lows in the upper 30s.

Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.

Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s.

Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 70s.

Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.

Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s.

Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s.

Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   MAR 24-28 MAR 26-APR 1    MAR       MAR-MAY                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above     Normal      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Above     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Monday March 19, 2018 the 78th Day of Year

Declination -0.160000
Distance 0.999721 AU
Rise 06:52 EDT Set 18:59 EDT
Transit Meridian 12:55 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:29 EDT Ends 19:23 EDT

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

Timberline Lodge reported 246 inches of snow on the ground, a record for
the state of Oregon. (The Weather Channel)
Suffocating dust storms occurred frequently in southeastern Colorado
between the 12th and the 25th of the month. Six people died, and many
livestock starved or suffocated. Up to six feet of dust covered the ground.
Schools were closed, and many rural homes were deserted by tenants. (The
Weather Channel)
The second heavy snowstorm in just three days hit Boston. Nearby Blue Hill
received 19.5 inches contributing to their snowiest March of record. (David

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky