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Morgan County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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36 Hr. Forecast Map
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Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts





US Weekly Rainfall Departure



US Weekly Temperature Departure
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.


.SHORT TERM...
Tonight through Saturday.

We are watching conditions upstream across Ohio River Valley and
westward into southern Missouri for signs of convective 
initiation. Visible satellite imagery is largely void of cumulus 
in the vicinity of a convergence zone, but the early stage of 
convective development appears to be underway just east of 
Springfield, MO. Initiation farther east toward Paducah, KY is 
behind schedule, which will impact the arrival time of storms into
the northwest part of our forecast area. Models generally suggest
the upstream convergence zone will fill in with scattered 
thunderstorms in the 00-03z time frame with potential upscale 
growth into clusters or an MCS. Our overall forecast has not 
changed for tonight into Saturday morning, but the timing has been
adjusted to show a later time of arrival. Damaging wind and large
hail appear most likely across the northwestern quarter of the 
CWA, but we will monitor short range guidance and mesoanalysis to 
see if our enhanced risk area needs to be expanded. 

The potential for severe thunderstorm development Saturday
afternoon and evening is rather unclear at this time and will 
depend on what occurs with tonight's convection. However, models 
are in general agreement that destabilization will occur across 
much of the area beneath relatively strong 500mb flow. SBCAPE 
values of 3000-4500 J/kg and deep layer shear of 45-55kt will be 
supportive of isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in 
the form of supercells or clusters. Damaging winds and quarter 
size hail appear to be the primary threats, but 0-3km SRH of 
200-300 m2/s2 may also support a conditional risk for a tornado.

87/Grantham

.LONG TERM...

Sunday through Thursday.

The main upper low, currently associated with the weather in the 
short term, will slowly slide southward on Sunday and Monday. As it 
slides south, it will weaken as well. This low will then park 
over the Southeast for the rest of the week. There are some model 
disagreement with the exact track and overall timing, but the 
pattern remains similar, so confidence is high that we will see 
above normal rain chances for much of the next work week. The Euro
places the center of the low over northern GA/AL Monday afternoon
and keeps it generally in the same location through Wednesday. 
After that the energy gets shifted to the south along the coast 
through the end of the week. Meanwhile the GFS bring the center of
the low more into northern AL/MS by Tuesday morning. The low 
spins across central AL before it weakens into more of an upper 
trough. Either scenario would keep higher than normal 
precipitation chances for the area, with the only uncertainty 
being where to put the highest chances. As for temperatures, will 
trend temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 for now and adjust 
downward if needed as we get closer and confidence of the path is 
higher. The good news is that the lows should be cooler, with the 
lower dewpoints, so the oppressive heat will not be as much of an 
issue. 

16


Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For MORGAN County
700 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018
NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
CULLMAN AG STN   N/A     86 N/A N/A SW6         N/A                   
DECATUR AP     FAIR      85  75  72 S12       29.90R HX  93           
6HR MIN TEMP:  85; 6HR MAX TEMP:  88;                                

HUNTSVILLE AP  FAIR      86  75  69 S9        29.90S HX  95           
6HR MIN TEMP:  86; 6HR MAX TEMP:  90;                                

MERIDIANVILLE  MOSUNNY   86  73  65 SW7       29.91R HX  93           
REDSTONE ARSN  CLOUDY    88  74  63 SW7       29.89R HX  96           
VINEMONT AP    MOCLDY    86  74  67 SW8       29.95R HX  93           

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 700pm CDT, Friday July 20, 2018

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 85 degrees north, near 87 degrees central, and near 87 degrees south. Current sky conditions are fair north, mostly cloudy central, and partly sunny south. In the north, relative humidity is near 72%, and the dew point is near 75 degrees. The heat index is near 93 degrees north. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 62%, and the dew point is near 73 degrees. The heat index is near 94 degrees central. In the south, relative humidity is near 67%, and the dew point is near 75 degrees. The heat index is near 96 degrees south. The livestock heat stress category is danger north, danger central, and danger south. Winds are from the south at 12 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the south at 8 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the south at 5 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 88 degrees at Tuscaloosa and Dothan. The lowest temperature is 85 degrees at Shelby County Airport, Decatur, and Alexander City.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For MORGAN County, AL

234 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

 DAY ONE  Tonight  

Several rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected to impact the 
outlook area beginning late this afternoon and continuing through 
Saturday morning. Damaging wind gusts as high as 80 MPH, hail up to 
the size of quarters, as well as a tornado or two are all possible. 

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Saturday through Thursday  

Another episode of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms is 
expected on Saturday, as a cold front drifts southeastward into the 
region. 

Otherwise, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours from Sunday 
through Thursday.

 SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT  

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is 
expected from late this afternoon through Saturday morning.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook


7-Day Forecast For MORGAN County, Alabama
627 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018


TORNADO WATCH 294 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT SATURDAY

TONIGHT
Thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

SATURDAY
Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 90. West winds 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly clear. Chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows around 70. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

SUNDAY
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s.

MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

TUESDAY
Thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Lows around 70. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

WEDNESDAY
Thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

THURSDAY
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

FRIDAY
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 90.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                              ALABAMA                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   JUL 26-30 JUL 28-AUG 3    JUL       JUL-SEP                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Below        Below      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above     Normal     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Friday July 20, 2018 the 201th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination 20.470000
Distance 0.999716 AU
Rise 06:53 EDT Set 20:56 EDT
Transit Meridian 13:54 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:26 EDT Ends 21:23 EDT

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

////////////////////////
JULY 20TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1930...
The temperature at Washington D.C. soared to an all-time record of 106
degrees. The next day Millsboro reached 110 degrees to set a record for the
state of Delaware. July 1930 was one of the hottest and driest summers in
the U.S., particularly in the Missouri Valley where severe drought
conditions developed. Toward the end of the month state records were set
for Kentucky with 114 degrees, and Mississippi with 115 degrees. (David
Ludlum)
...1934...
The temperature at Keokuk IA soared to 118 degrees to establish a state
record. (The Weather Channel)
...1953...
Twenty-two inches of hail reportedly fell northeast of Dickinson ND. (The
Weather Channel)
...1986...
The temperature at Charleston SC hit 104 degrees for the second day in a
row to tie their all-time record high. (The Weather Channel)
...1987...
Thunderstorms produced severe weather across Minnesota, Wisconsin and
Michigan. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 87 mph at Mosinee WI, and
strong thunderstorm winds capsized twenty-six boats on Grand Traverse Bay
drowning two women. Thunderstorms produced nine inches of rain at Shakopee
MN, with 7.83 inches reported in six hours at Chaska MN. Thunderstorms in
north central Nebraska produced hail as large as golf balls in southwestern
Cherry County, which accumulated to a depth of 12 inches. (The National
Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1988...
The temperature at Redding CA soared to an all-time record high of 118
degrees. Showers and thunderstorms produced much needed rains from New
England to southern Texas. Salem IN was deluged with 7.2 inches of rain
resulting in flash flooding. (The National Weather Summary)
...1989...
Showers and thunderstorms in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region soaked
Wilmington DE with 2.28 inches of rain, pushing their total for the period
May through July past the previous record of 22.43 inches. Heavy rain over
that three month period virtually wiped out a 16.82 inch deficit which had
been building since drought conditions began in 1985. Thunderstorms in
central Indiana deluged Lebanon with 6.50 inches of rain in twelve hours,
and thunderstorms over Florida produced wind gusts to 84 mph at Flagler
Beach. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky