A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
Today and Tonight.
An overall northwesterly flow pattern continues for today and
tonight as an upper level ridge remains in place across the Western
and Central CONUS with a trough sliding across the East Coast. A
weak frontal boundary is expected to push into the area, but models
have been trending drier with the overall PoPs in latest runs. I
would expect at least some convective initiation, similar to what
the a few of the high-res CAMS develop along the convergent
boundary, but where that initiation takes place and how long it
lasts will be difficult to nail down. Therefore, I have kept 40-50%
chance of rain in the forecast for this afternoon with the morning
remaining mostly dry. PWATS exceed 2" by this evening when the best
rain chances would exist, given model timing of the frontal
boundary. This could lead to localized heavy rainfall with any
storms that are able to develop.
Aside from the rain chances, another humid day is in store across
Central AL with heat indices nearing 100 with some locations in
the western portions of our area just edging over 100 due to
slightly higher dewpoints. Cloud coverage should be high enough to
keep us out of any heat advisory conditions, however, so will not
add any heat impacts to the HWO today.
Wednesday through Monday.
Northwest flow will remain in place aloft on Wednesday between a
mid-level trough extending from New England southward to the
northern Gulf, and a mid-level ridge extending from the Southern
Plains westward to the Pacific. A shortwave ridge will also be in
place over the Midwest, ahead of a shortwave trough over the
Northern Plains. Northerly low-level flow associated with high
pressure over the Great Lakes will allow the cool front to sink
southward towards the I-85 corridor afternoon. The ECMWF has
actually trended towards the other models in showing some drier
air mixing down across the northern counties during the afternoon.
This will set up a sharp moisture/PoP gradient with scattered to
numerous showers/storms across the south and rain-free conditions
across the north. Heavy rainfall/localized flooding will remain
possible in the high PWAT airmass along/south of I-85/Highway 80.
Dew points look to mix down into the 60s over at least some of the
northern counties, but temperatures will still hit 90 in most
spots. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will remain possible
Wednesday night in the far southern counties near the front. Any
MCS that develops over the Plains/Ozarks would likely remain well
to the west over the ArkLaMiss.
On Thursday, the Northern Plains shortwave/upper low will move
into MN while a lead shortwave will extend southward towards
northwest Alabama. A wave of low pressure more noticeable at 850mb
than at the surface will develop in the area of convection along
the stalled front along the Gulf Coast. The ECMWF has trended
slower with the development of this feature more in line with the
other models, and therefore the model consensus now indicates the
front will be a bit slower to lift back north as a warm front.
This will keep the drier air mass in place longer across the area.
PoPs were reduced and may be reduced further in future updates in
north-central/interior portions of the area. Best rain chances
will be in the far southeast closest to the stalled front.
The GFS and ECMWF remain in some disagreement for Friday. The
ECMWF is quicker to lift out the wave of low pressure up the East
Coast and therefore has more moisture return compared to the GFS.
Will go with PoPs in the scattered category areawide. Any storms
that do develop Friday afternoon could be strong with 0-6 km bulk
shear values of 20-25 kts, dry air aloft, and increasing mid-
level lapse rates.
Troughing will continue to amplify over the eastern CONUS Friday
night into Saturday, as an unseasonably strong vertically stacked
low moves into the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front. An
area of unseasonably strong northwesterly mid and upper-level flow
will be located along its southern flank. Friday night, there will
be the potential for one more more MCSs to form along the front.
The best upper-level forcing will remain north of the area, but
Corfidi vectors would support some activity making it into our
northern counties. If an MCS or organized cluster is able to hold
together when it arrives Friday night, 0-6 km bulk shear values of
30-35 kts and strengthening mid-level lapse rates would be
supportive of the potential for it to be strong to severe.
However, confidence in the strength/track of any MCSs this far out
is too low to mention in the HWO at this time, especially given
the nocturnal timing.
The cold front will move into the area on Saturday. Unusually
strong (for late July) 0-6 km bulk shear values of 30-40 kts and
decent mid-level lapse rates would be supportive of a threat of
strong to severe storms assuming sufficient instability. Main wild
cards are outflow from the possible MCS Friday night and what
impact that could have on destabilization. Some drier air may move
in aloft which could limit storm coverage. Given the uncertainty
this far out, will not add a severe mention to the HWO to this
time, but one could be added in future updates if trends continue.
The potential main threat would be damaging winds.
A drier air mass looks to move into much of the area
Sunday/Monday as the trough remains over the eastern CONUS,
resulting in reduced rain chances, dependent on where the front
stalls and residual boundary layer moisture.
Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For MONTGOMERY County
1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BIRMINGHAM PTSUNNY 84 74 71 SW6 30.07F HX 91
MONTGOMERY CLOUDY 80 73 79 VRB3 30.05F
SHELBY CO ARPT CLOUDY 77 74 90 CALM 30.06F
MAXWELL AFB CLOUDY 81 74 80 S3 30.04F
GREENVILLE PTSUNNY 87 71 58 CALM 30.04F HX 93
SELMA CLOUDY 81 73 78 W5 30.05S
PRATTVILLE CLOUDY 79 75 87 S3 30.04F
BESSEMER CLOUDY 78 76 93 S5 30.07
TALLADEGA CLOUDY 81 76 84 NW3 30.06S
PELL CITY CLOUDY 79 77 94 S3 30.06S
MARION PTSUNNY 83 75 76 CALM 30.04S HX 90
SYLACAUGA CLOUDY 81 78 91 CALM 30.06F
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 1100am CDT, Tuesday July 17, 2018
Across Alabama...temperatures are near 81 degrees north, near 81 degrees central, and near 84 degrees south. Current sky conditions are not available north, cloudy central, and cloudy south. In the north, relative humidity is near 84%, and the dew point is near 76 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 79%, and the dew point is near 74 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 82%, and the dew point is near 78 degrees. The heat index is near 95 degrees south. The livestock heat stress category is danger north, no stress central, and danger south. Conditions are hazy central. Winds are calm north, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to not available. Winds are variable at 3 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 86 degrees at Ozark and Dothan. The lowest temperature is 76 degrees at Shelby County Airport.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
U.S. Radar Map,
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For MONTGOMERY County, AL
851 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018
DAY ONE Outlook through Tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Wednesday through Monday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For MONTGOMERY County, Alabama
1202 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018
Partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of thunderstorms in
the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
TONIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Southwest winds around 5 mph
in the evening then becoming light.
WEDNESDAY Mostly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms in the
morning, then numerous thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in
the lower 90s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain
WEDNESDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. West winds around 5 mph in
the evening then becoming light.
THURSDAY Partly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the
morning, then chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in
the lower 90s. Light winds becoming north around 5 mph in the
afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
THURSDAY NIGHT Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s.
FRIDAY Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs in
the lower 90s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
FRIDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s.
SATURDAY Thunderstorms likely. Highs in the lower 90s. Chance
of rain 60 percent.
SATURDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming
partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the
SUNDAY Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.
SUNDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy in the evening then clearing. A
20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.
MONDAY Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
JUL 22-26 JUL 24-30 JUL JUL-SEP
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Above Above Above Above
Precipitation: Above Above Normal Normal
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Tuesday July 17, 2018 the 198th Day of Year
Distance 0.999716 AU
Rise 06:51 EDT Set 20:57 EDT
Transit Meridian 13:54 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:24 EDT Ends 21:24 EDT
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
JULY 17TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
One of the worst heat waves in the history of the nation commenced. During
the last two weeks of the month extreme heat claimed 679 lives in Michigan,
including 300 in Detroit alone. (The Weather Channel)
A prolonged heat wave over Washington State finally came to an end.
Lightning from untimely thunderstorms was responsible for 598 forest fires.
Thunderstorms helped the temperatur at Key West FL to dip to 69 degrees, to
equal their July record established on the first of July in 1923. (The
On a warm and sunny day at Wilmington DE, with a high of 86 degrees, a dust
devil suddenly appeared. It tore most the roof off one house, and stripped
shingles from a neighboring house. A TV aerial was toppled, and clothes
were blown off clothes lines. (The Weather Channel)
Slow moving thunderstorms caused flooding on the Guadalupe River in Texas
resulting in tragic loss of life. A bus and van leaving a summer youth camp
stalled near the rapidly rising river, just west of the town of Comfort,
and a powerful surge of water swept away 43 persons, mostly teenagers. Ten
drowned in the floodwaters. Most of the others were rescued from tree tops
by helicopter. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
A dozen cities in the eastern U.S., and six others in California, reported
record high temperatures for the date. Downtown San Francisco CA, with a
high of 103 degrees, obliterated their previous record high of 82 degrees.
Philadelphia PA reported a record five straight days of 100 degree heat,
and Baltimore MD reported a record eight days of 100 degree weather for the
year. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather along the
Middle Atlantic Coast, and over southern New England. (The National Weather
Thunderstorms produced severe weather from South Dakota to Lousiana, with
126 reports of large hail and damaging winds during the day and night.
Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced hail four inches in diameter in Frontier
County, and at North Platte, causing millions of dollars damage to crops in
Frontier County. Thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced wind gusts to 90 mph at
Peggs. Tahlequah OK was drenched with 5.25 inches of rain. (Storm Data)
(The National Weather Summary)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky