A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
An area of light to moderate rain has spread into west Central
Alabama this afternoon. Current radar trends show the activity
diminishing as it moves eastward and encounters drier air. The
best rain chances through sunset will be across the west.
This activity is being aided by a weak upper level impulse that
will move to the east, and expect a break in much of the shower
activity this evening. The next impulse will cross the area late
tonight, and rain showers will return to the area after midnight
tonight, mainly across the north. Low clouds are possible but with
boundary winds remaining elevated, do not expect fog overnight or
early Saturday morning.
With increased moisture and southerly flow, temperatures tonight
will be in the mid 50s in the east to around 60 in the west.
Updated for the severe weather threat on Monday.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF have taken steps toward a more ominous setup for
Monday afternoon and evening. There appears to be less emphasis on a
potentially disruptive convective episode Sunday night into Monday
morning. This is probably due to a stronger elevated mixed layer
spreading in across the region Sunday night which would allow the
warm sector to move inland more rapidly. Disagreement remains
regarding the finer but crucial details for the evolution of the
surface to 850mb response to the upper-level trough. This will make
or break the potential for tornadoes. Currently the solutions range
from a tornado outbreak, shown by the NAM, to a lower tornado threat
on the GFS/ECMWF. However, confidence continues to increase in the
potential for large to very large hail due to steep mid-level lapse
rates and strong deep-layer shear. Our updated products will reflect
an increase in the severe weather threat, particularly for large
hail, with an acknowledgement of an upward trending but still
uncertain tornado potential.
Previous Long Term Discussion from 405 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018.
A weakening surface low quickly slides eastward and pushes a front
southward through Central AL. This is a fairly broad front without
much forcing, but should be enough to produce a line of showers.
Coverage of showers along this line will likely be more scattered,
thus I will not go much higher than 50% PoPs through Saturday
afternoon. Can't rule out a thunderstorm or two with these as
instability will be 1000-2000J/kg. However, veered surface winds
should limit any significant severe weather threat. By Saturday
evening and into the overnight hours, models pick up on another
frontal boundary sliding southward, but doesn't show much in the way
of showers/storms developing along it. I would expect at least
scattered showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm to develop
along this front in the overnight hours, even though models aren't
really picking up on it yet, so I've included slight chance PoPs
with mention of isolated thunderstorms.
Sunday and Monday.
The previously-mentioned front is still pushing through early Sunday
morning and will stall just south of us by Sunday afternoon.
Troughing digs into the Central and Southern Plains later Sunday
afternoon and develops a strong upper level low. The GFS still
develops a pre-frontal shortwave trough that ejects out of the base
of this deeper longwave trough and helps lift that stalled front
northward as an effective warm front. Lift along the frontal
boundary, coupled with the shortwave will likely lead to a MCS
sliding eastward late Sunday night into Monday morning. Ample
environmental shear exists to help organize and propagate this MCS
like models are showing, but instability is in question given the
overnight timing. Furthermore, GFS limits the moisture rebound, so
I'm not 100% sold on a significant severe threat with this MCS,
though some gusty winds can't be ruled out. We'll need to continue
to monitor the thermodynamics of this Sunday night/Monday system to
assess the severe potential. The biggest concern right now would be
for heavy rain and the possibility of training storms along the
frontal boundary. This could lead to some localized flooding,
highlighted by WPC's slight risk area for excessive rainfall, but
confidence isn't high enough to mention in our HWO at this time.
It's worth noting that the 00z NAM has this MCS moving through
Northern AL rather than Central/Southern AL, but this is at the
fringe of NAM output, so I wouldn't much stock in it just yet.
Later Monday morning into the early afternoon, the upper low
intensifies and the surface low deepens. This will bring a dryline
boundary across the MS River Valley and through MS by Monday
afternoon. Ahead of this dryline, models are in decent agreement
right now with the moisture rebound and afternoon destabilization
across Central AL. MUCAPE values in both the GFS and ECMWF are 1500-
2000 J/kg with surface based CAPE exceeding 1500. Surface winds are
backed to the south for most of the area, with some spots forecast
to see more southeasterly winds according to the GFS. These backed
surface winds, coupled with the flow around the deepening upper low
will result in a fairly deep shear. 0-6km Bulk shear is around 55-
65kts with 0-3km being 40-50kts. Essentially, the forecast
hodographs have good curvature and SRH values are greater than 300,
which would support rotating updrafts. I'm not overly impressed with
the strength of the LLJ that both the GFS and EC are showing, but
that wouldn't prevent a severe threat. The biggest uncertainty right
now is the Sunday night/Monday morning MCS. Timing and location of
that MCS will almost fully determine where and what kind of severe
threat we'll see on Monday afternoon/evening. The MCS could very
well cut us off and limit any destabilization, but for now the
models show moisture and instability building back in. Because of
that, and with the models now showing more backed surface winds and
better low level shear, I will change the severe thunderstorm threat
in the HWO to a tornado threat and increase the confidence slightly
(to a 2). At this time, all modes of severe weather look possible
(damaging hail, wind, and tornadoes) for Monday afternoon/evening.
We'll need to monitor model trends in the next couple of days to
determine specifics on timing and location.
Tuesday through Friday.
The surface low continues to move eastward into the Appalachians and
Coastal Mid Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday. Models pick up on
another shortwave coming around the base of the trough that will
kick the actual cold front through Central AL on Tuesday, but
moisture return and instability look limited with this. Could see
some showers with it, so have carried slight chance PoPs through the
evening hours. Wednesday through Friday look to be cooler and dry as
surface high pressure builds in on the backside of the departing
Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For MONROE County
1100 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2018
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MOBILE CLOUDY 64 62 93 S10 30.05R
BROOKLEY FIELD CLOUDY 65 63 93 S9 30.06R
EVERGREEN CLOUDY 62 59 90 S5 30.06S
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 1000pm CDT, Friday March 16, 2018
Across Alabama...temperatures are near 56 degrees north, near 58 degrees central, and near 64 degrees south. Current sky conditions are fair north, mostly cloudy central, and light rain south. In the north, relative humidity is near 86%, and the dew point is near 52 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 90%, and the dew point is near 55 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 90%, and the dew point is near 61 degrees. Winds are from the south at 8 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southeast at 5 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southeast at 13 mph south, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds and light rain. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 66 degrees at Brookely Field. The lowest temperature is 50 degrees at Alexander City.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
U.S. Radar Map,
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For MONROE County, AL
531 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018
DAY ONE Today and Tonight
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Saturday through Thursday
Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the weekend and into
the early part of next week. A few strong to potentially severe
storms could be possible on Monday.
There will be an increased risk of hazardous rip currents along the
beaches of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle this weekend
and lasting into the early part of next week.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks is not expected
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For MONROE County, Alabama
938 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018
REST OF TONIGHT
Warmer. Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance
of rain showers. Near steady temperature around 60. South winds
5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY Mostly cloudy with chance of rain showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds
5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
SATURDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers after
midnight. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Lows in the lower 60s.
Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.
SUNDAY Patchy dense fog in the morning. Showers likely and
slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and
thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Highs around 80. Southwest
winds up to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
SUNDAY NIGHT Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid
60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
MONDAY Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs around 80.
Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
MONDAY NIGHT Rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms
in the evening, then rain showers likely and slight chance of
thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent.
TUESDAY Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs in the lower 70s.
TUESDAY NIGHT Colder. Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s.
WEDNESDAY Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s.
THURSDAY Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.
THURSDAY NIGHT Mostly clear. Lows around 40.
FRIDAY Sunny. Highs around 70.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
MAR 22-26 MAR 24-30 MAR MAR-MAY
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Below Above Normal Above
Precipitation: Below Above Above Normal
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Saturday March 17, 2018 the 76th Day of Year
Distance 0.999721 AU
Rise 06:55 EDT Set 18:58 EDT
Transit Meridian 12:56 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:31 EDT Ends 19:22 EDT
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
A winter storm in southwestern and central Tennessee produced 26 inches of
snow at Riddleton, and 18.5 inches at Memphis. It was the deepest snow of
record for those areas. (David Ludlum)
Record cold on Saint Patrick's Day: Louisville 9, Lexington 4, Bowling
Green 16. (NWS Louisville, KY)
The temperature at Snake River WY dipped to 50 degrees below zero, a record
for the U.S. for the month of March. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
A powerful spring storm produced severe thunderstorms over the Central Gulf
Coast States, and heavy snow in the High Plains Region. A tornado caused
three million dollars damage at Natchez MS, and six inches of rain in five
hours caused five million dollars damage at Vicksburg MS. Cactus TX
received 10 inches of snow. Western Kansas reported blizzard conditions.
(The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky