A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
The warm front has moved through much of Central AL this morning.
The frontal boundary can be denoted in the ground clutter from
KBMX. Behind this warm front, we've been able to mix out a lot of
the stratus that had been hanging around this morning resulting in
clearing skies and sunshine. Here at EET, we've warmed to 75 over
65 with the dewpoints mixing out more (dewpoint was 67 an hour ago
or so). To our west, a boundary has moved through MS and is
entering western portions of Central AL. This boundary has been
able to tap into the instability in the wake of the warm front,
sparking some convection. This is expected to continue to move
eastward across the area, initiating some thunderstorms over the
next few hours. The 16z HRRR initialized well, and has a few of
these thunderstorms developing through about 4-5pm CT. Severity of
these storms is uncertain. With increasing instability this
afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised to see some of these storm
produce hail and gusty winds. The 18z special sounding from BMX
is showing right at 3000 J/kg CAPE, but the LLJ is still further
west, closer to the dryline in MS, so the low level shear isn't
impressive. Therefore, the tornado threat with these scattered
storms is limited.
The main concern remains for later this afternoon/evening and into
the nighttime hours. The dryline has moved across the MS river in
the past hour and will continue to push eastward. The higher
resolution models and convective-allowing models show a broken
line of individual cells developing along this dryline and moving
through AL. By this time, the LLJ will have moved into the area as
well, creating quite a bit of curvature in the forecast
hodographs. 0-3km SRH is expected to exceed 400 by 7pm (0-1km SRH
exceed 250) across much of North- Central AL, which is what led
to the increase to a Moderate Risk. Expected impacts remain very
similar to previous thinking - tornadoes (some may be strong),
large hail up to tennis ball sized, and damaging winds.
This line of storms will move from the northwest to southeast
through tonight and should move out of our area by the midnight to
Previous short-term discussion:Today and Tonight.
Confidence is increasing in the severe weather potential for this
afternoon and evening. The threat for tornadoes has also increased,
and a strong tornado or two will be possible across northern
portions of Central Alabama as well. It now appears that there may
be two waves of severe weather, with a first wave during the
early/mid afternoon hours which is more isolated/conditional,
followed by the main wave during the late afternoon/evening hours.
The severe weather starting time was bumped earlier to 2 PM to
account for the first wave, while the second wave has trended a bit
slower resulting in the ending time being pushed back to 2 AM,
mainly for southern/eastern areas. More on these waves below.
A lead shortwave is currently pushing into western portions of the
state, indicated by pronounced drying in mid-level water vapor
imagery. This is producing some light showers north of the warm
front, with an MCS now well southeast of the area over the FL
panhandle and southern GA. The radar is clear over southern MS and
LA, suggesting the warm front should not have much trouble lifting
northward. Scattered clusters of warm advection thunderstorms are
located over northern MS and western TN. It's not out of the
question that these could clip far northwest portions of Central
Alabama during the early morning hours with the possibility of hail.
Further west, a broken pre-frontal line of storms is located over
far eastern OK and into far NE TX ahead of the main upper low of
interest. These are expected to lift well northeast of Central AL.
Will note that they extend a bit further south than expected, so
that is something to monitor, but the southern end will probably
weaken as it encounters a more stable air mass over AR and northern
LA. The surface low is located over northern OK, with an occluded
front extending southward to a triple point near where OK/AR/TX come
together. A cold front/dry line extends southward from the triple
point. A warm front extends eastward all the way into far southern
Patchy fog will be possible this morning along and north of the warm
front with a low stratus deck over the area as well. The warm front
should lift northward this morning with broken sunshine developing.
This will result in heating, and combined with moist low-levels and
steep mid-level lapse rates associated with an EML, CAPE values of
2000-2500 J/kg will develop, with 60 kts of 0-6 km deep layer shear.
This high CAPE/high shear parameter space is supportive of a
significant severe threat. Models indicate a weak wave at 700mb
lifting across the area over the open warm sector during the
afternoon hours, ahead of the main upper-level forcing associated
with the upper low and the cold front/dry line at the surface.
Almost all models show some light QPF developing with this feature,
but differ regarding whether there will be any deep convection or
just scattered showers. The 3km NAM and a couple runs of the HRRR
suggest isolated convection/supercells are possible. This will be at
peak heating and the cap is not particularly strong, so it at least
seems plausible. All modes of severe weather would be possible with
any isolated discrete supercells that do form. Also of note is a
well defined fine line on radar that the storms in northeast TX are
forming on, which may be indicative of an outflow boundary/bore,
which could cause early initiation as it moves eastward. This first
wave complicates the timing graphic, resulting in a much broader
threat timeframe, with the first wave starting as early as 2 PM.
It's also unclear what effect this first wave will have on the
second wave, but current thinking is that it won't have much of an
The second main/most widespread wave of storms will develop over
northern MS/northwest AL as height falls and the mid-level speed max
associated with the upper low and low amplitude trough interact with
the dry line at the surface. Shear profiles favor a fast-moving
broken line of supercells that will race eastward across the area
during the late afternoon and evening. Model consensus excluding the
GFS now indicates that winds ahead of this line will remain backed
in a southerly direction, which is also indicated in the HREF mean
winds. This results in greater 0-1km SRH and more favorable critical
angles. The line of supercells looks to cross the area during the
favorable early evening transition period of increased low-level
shear. Therefore, it appears that the threat for tornadoes including
the potential for a strong tornado or two across the northern half
of Central Alabama has increased. This will ultimately depend on
storm scale details and what effects the first wave has. The threat
of large hail, including significant hail >2" diameter continues
given the fat CAPE profiles, and many SARS significant hail analogs.
Isolated hail up to baseball size may be possible. The threat will
end by midnight for many, except for southeast and far south-central
portions of Central Alabama where it will continue through around
2AM. The enhanced risk area in our local impact graphics remains on
track, and lines up well with the >40% neighborhood probability of
updraft helicity > 75 m2/s2 in the HREF CAM ensemble. Not everyone
will see severe storms today given the scattered nature of the
storms, but those that do will see some intense storms. Everyone
should remain weather aware.
Tuesday through Sunday.
As the main wave of showers and storms exit the area, the main
upper low will swing into the area on Tuesday and slowly work
through the area. Scattered light showers will be possible
throughout the day Tuesday and into Tuesday night along with
cooler temperatures. Overall the consensus of the models clear the
rain out around Midnight, before the temperatures can drop into
Drier air filters into the region on Wednesday and will hang out
for several days. Temperatures will be on the cooler side with
highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s. We will need to
monitor Wednesday and Thursday morning for possible freezes, but
Thursday appears most probable for at least a frost across the
northern 2/3rds of the area. Will continue to mention the cold in
the HWO for Thursday morning. Temperatures will continue to modify
through Friday with highs in the 60s on Thursday and 60s/70s on
Rain will begin to filter back into the region Friday night into
Saturday as the next system works closer to the area. There are
quite some model inconsistencies right now as the GFS tries to
push a front through Saturday night into Sunday and then lift it
back north, while the Euro keeps the front draped across the north
and never really pushes through. Either way we will will remain on
the active side of the weather and will continue to have
precipitation chances in through the end of the period.
Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For MARENGO County
SWR not available
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 100pm CDT, Monday March 19, 2018
Across Alabama...temperatures are near 62 degrees north, near 73 degrees central, and near 74 degrees south. Current sky conditions are cloudy north, partly sunny central, and cloudy south. In the north, relative humidity is near 90%, and the dew point is near 59 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 68%, and the dew point is near 62 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 91%, and the dew point is near 71 degrees. There is patchy fog south. Winds are from the east at 5 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 9 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 10 mph with gusts at 16 mph south, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 78 degrees at Dothan. The lowest temperature is 60 degrees at Muscle Shoals.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
U.S. Radar Map,
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For MARENGO County, AL
1138 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018
DAY ONE Outlook Through Tonight.
Scattered severe storms are possible across all of Central Alabama
this afternoon, ahead of an approaching front. The primary threats
with these storms are damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.
A more significant threat of severe storms, including strong
tornadoes, is expected late this afternoon and tonight as a front
moves through the area. These storms will move from west to east,
entering northwest Central Alabama as early as 4PM and exiting
southeast Central Alabama as late as 2AM Tuesday morning. The
greatest potential for strong tornadoes is north of a line from
Sulligent to Birmingham to Anniston. However, tornadoes, large hail,
and damaging winds are possible area wide.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Tuesday through Sunday.
Cooler air moving in behind the system will result in the potential
for lows at or below freezing across parts of north central Alabama
Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will be
needed through early Tuesday morning.
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For MARENGO County, Alabama
130 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018
Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds and
large hail. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
TONIGHT Mostly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms in the evening,
then slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Some
thunderstorms may produce damaging winds and large hail in the
evening. Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance
of rain 50 percent.
TUESDAY Much cooler. Cloudy. A 30 percent chance of rain
showers in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 60s. West winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT Colder. Mostly cloudy in the evening then
clearing. Lows around 40. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Northwest winds 10 to
WEDNESDAY NIGHT Clear. Lows in the upper 30s.
THURSDAY Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
THURSDAY NIGHT Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s.
FRIDAY Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s.
FRIDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.
SATURDAY Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s.
SATURDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s.
SUNDAY Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
MAR 24-28 MAR 26-APR 1 MAR MAR-MAY
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Above Above Normal Above
Precipitation: Above Above Above Normal
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Monday March 19, 2018 the 78th Day of Year
Distance 0.999721 AU
Rise 06:52 EDT Set 18:59 EDT
Transit Meridian 12:55 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:29 EDT Ends 19:23 EDT
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
Timberline Lodge reported 246 inches of snow on the ground, a record for
the state of Oregon. (The Weather Channel)
Suffocating dust storms occurred frequently in southeastern Colorado
between the 12th and the 25th of the month. Six people died, and many
livestock starved or suffocated. Up to six feet of dust covered the ground.
Schools were closed, and many rural homes were deserted by tenants. (The
The second heavy snowstorm in just three days hit Boston. Nearby Blue Hill
received 19.5 inches contributing to their snowiest March of record. (David
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky