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Macon County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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36 Hr. Forecast Map
All Radar images NOAA/UKAWC
Satellite images from NOAA

Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts





US Weekly Rainfall Departure



US Weekly Temperature Departure
Also see:




A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.


.SHORT TERM...

Precipitable water values at 2 inches or more across much of
Central Alabama, but there is a gradient in the moisture from west
to east. There is an axis of higher microburst potential and hail
potential from near Lee County, to Jefferson County, to Marion
County. This axis also coincides with SBCAPE maximum near 4000.
Numerous outflow boundaries of varying extent are converging into
this zone from all directions. Therefore, increased rain chances
for all of western areas and near this axis the remainder of the
afternoon hours and into the first couple of hours this evening. 

850-300 winds are very weak over the area, therefore storm 
movement is nearly stationary. The storms are propagating due to
the numerous boundaries and will tend to move eastward or
southward with time, but some variations certainly expected. The
strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 45
mph and rainfall of 1 to 3 inches in a short period of time.
Coverage will diminish with the lose of daytime heating through 
the evening hours.

75

Previous short-term discussion:Through Tonight.

Scattered showers and storms will continue to increase in coverage
this afternoon and early evening. Current radar trends show most
of that activity will be across the west and south. Although, with
colliding boundaries, storms are possible anywhere. Slow storm
motions and PWs around 2 inches create the potential for ponding 
and urban flooding. Frequent lightning and a few strong wind gusts
are also possible. 

Coverage will diminish with sunset, but at least an isolated
chance of a storm will remain overnight. Looking very similar to
last night, with a messy sky and localized fog possible. Lows will
be in the low to mid 70s.

14

.LONG TERM...
Monday through Saturday.

Northwest flow will develop aloft on Monday while low-level flow
becomes more cyclonic. This will occur as a deep trough moves
through eastern Canada and the Great Lakes and ridging begins to
build over the western CONUS. A cold front will begin to move into
the Mid-South/Ohio Valley regions. High PWATs around 2 to 2.2 
inches will remain in place especially across the southern
counties, with another pre-frontal axis of high PWATs sinking down
into the northwest counties during the late afternoon. Expect
another day of hot and humid conditions with heat index values
climbing to around 105 by midday, before high coverage of
showers/storms causes some relief in the afternoon. Locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding will remain possible. Best coverage
may end up being in the northwest counties where clusters of pre-
frontal storms may move in from the northwest. This is also where
the best chance of some stronger storms with gusty winds will be
given an axis of relatively dry air aloft between the two moisture
axes, but mid-level lapse rates and shear will remain very weak.
Still some signals of a possible MCS or two developing Monday 
night or at least a few clusters of storms. With timing in the 
models ranging from early evening to after midnight, will keep 
likely PoPs in across the north all night long. 

Outflow boundaries from Monday night's convection will likely play
a role on Tuesday's forecast. Highest confidence in widespread
rain chances will be across the southern counties near an upper
shear axis. It's possible that outflow could stabilize the
northern counties, but the main front/theta-e gradient/PWAT
gradient will remain north of the area even as the surface 
trough/wind shift gradient moves through. These factors will 
hopefully keep heat index values below 105. Locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding remains a threat. 

PoP/dew point forecast for Wednesday/Thursday will hinge on
exactly where the front stalls out. Models continue to vary from
run to run and between each other. Highest confidence in rain
chances will be across the south on Wednesday and southeast on
Thursday. A wave of low pressure also looks to develop along the
front by Thursday and move up the East Coast, while a shortwave
begins to approach from the northwest.  

Upper-level pattern will continue to amplify Friday through the
weekend as ridging strengthens near the Four Corners and an
anomalous upper low moves into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley 
region. This will result in the potential for MCSs/organized 
storms. Will need to monitor the potential for severe storms given
forecast mid-level lapse rates/bulk shear values, but confidence 
is low this far out.

32/Davis


Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For MACON County
1100 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018
EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
ANNISTON       FAIR      78  73  84 W6        30.05S                  
ALEXANDER CITY FAIR      72  72 100 E3        30.03F                  
AUBURN         FAIR      73  70  90 N5        30.06F                  

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 1100pm CDT, Sunday July 15, 2018

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 77 degrees north, near 75 degrees central, and near 77 degrees south. Current sky conditions are mostly cloudy north, cloudy central, and fair south. In the north, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 75 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 90%, and the dew point is near 72 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 90%, and the dew point is near 74 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is no stress north, no stress central, and no stress south. Winds are from the west at 5 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southeast at 3 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 79 degrees at Brookely Field. The lowest temperature is 72 degrees at Alexander City.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For MACON County, AL

815 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

 DAY ONE  Today and Tonight.

No organized Hazardous Weather is anticipated at this time.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Monday through Saturday.

Heat indices will be near 105 degrees again on Monday, mainly in
western and southern portions of Central Alabama.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook


7-Day Forecast For MACON County, Alabama
1130 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

TONIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms late in the evening, then isolated thunderstorms after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Near steady temperature in the lower 70s. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.

MONDAY
Partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then mostly cloudy with numerous thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

MONDAY NIGHT
Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening then becoming light.

TUESDAY
Thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. West winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Cloudy. Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. West winds around 5 mph in the evening then becoming light. Chance of rain 60 percent.

WEDNESDAY
Thunderstorms likely. Highs around 90. Chance of rain 60 percent.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

THURSDAY
Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

FRIDAY
Thunderstorms likely. Highs around 90. Chance of rain 60 percent.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

SATURDAY
Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 90.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

SUNDAY
Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                              ALABAMA                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   JUL 21-25    JUL 23-29    JUL       JUL-SEP                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:     Normal       Normal      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above     Normal     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Monday July 16, 2018 the 197th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination 21.200000
Distance 0.999716 AU
Rise 06:50 EDT Set 20:58 EDT
Transit Meridian 13:54 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:23 EDT Ends 21:25 EDT

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

////////////////////////
JULY 16TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1920...
A severe hailstorm over parts of Antelope and Boone counties in Nebraska
stripped trees of bark and foliage, ruined roofs, and broke nearly every
window facing north. (The Weather Channel)
...1946...
The temperature at Medford OR soared to an all-time high of 115 degrees to
begin a two week heat wave. During that Oregon heat wave the mercury hit
100 degrees at Sexton Summit for the only time in forty years of records.
(David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
...1975...
An early afternoon thunderstorm raked the east side of Tucson AZ with gale
force winds, heavy rain, and numerous lightning strikes. A thirteen year
old boy was swept through a forty foot long culvert by raging waters before
being rescued. (The Weather Channel)
...1979...
An intense thunderstorm dropped as much as 7 inches of rain in a three hour 
period over portions of southeastern pike county. two residents lost their lives 
as the car they were in was washed off the road. a young boy also died while 
being evacuated from his home. forty businesses and 2560 homes were 
affected...amounting to 7 million dollars in damage. (NWS JKL)
...1987...
Showers and thundestorms in the southwestern U.S. ended a record string of
thirty-nine consecutive days of 100 degree heat at Tucson AZ. A
thunderstorm at Bullhead City AZ produced wind gusts to 70 mph reducing the
visibility to near zero in blowing dust. Southerly winds gusting to 40 mph
pushed temperature readings above 100 degrees in the Northern Plains. Rapid
City SD reported a record high of 106 degrees, following a record low of 39
degrees just three days earlier. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm
Data)
...1988...
Thirty-seven cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures
for the date. Highs of 96 degrees at Bluefield WV and 104 degrees at
Charleston WV were all-time records, and afternoon highs of 98 degrees at
Binghamton NY, 99 degrees at Elkins WV, and 103 degrees at Pittsburgh PA,
tied all-time records. Highs of 104 degrees at Baltimore MD and 105
degrees at Parkersburg WV were records for July, and Beckley WV equalled
their record for July with a high of 94 degrees. Martinsburg WV was the hot
spot in the nation with a reading of 107 degrees. Afternoon and evening
thunderstorms raked the northeastern U.S. with large hail and damaging
winds. (The National Weather Summary)
...1989...
Showers and thunderstorms developing along a stationary front drenched the
Middle Atlantic Coast States with heavy rain, causing flooding in some
areas. More than five inches of rain was reported near Madison VA and
Ferncliff VA. Hot weather prevailed in Texas. San Angelo reported a record
high of 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)


Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky