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Lower Mobile County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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36 Hr. Forecast Map
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Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts





US Weekly Rainfall Departure



US Weekly Temperature Departure
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.


.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

An overall northwesterly flow pattern continues for today and 
tonight as an upper level ridge remains in place across the Western 
and Central CONUS with a trough sliding across the East Coast. A 
weak frontal boundary is expected to push into the area, but models 
have been trending drier with the overall PoPs in latest runs. I 
would expect at least some convective initiation, similar to what 
the a few of the high-res CAMS develop along the convergent 
boundary, but where that initiation takes place and how long it 
lasts will be difficult to nail down. Therefore, I have kept 40-50% 
chance of rain in the forecast for this afternoon with the morning 
remaining mostly dry.  PWATS exceed 2" by this evening when the best 
rain chances would exist, given model timing of the frontal 
boundary. This could lead to localized heavy rainfall with any 
storms that are able to develop. 

Aside from the rain chances, another humid day is in store across
Central AL with heat indices nearing 100 with some locations in 
the western portions of our area just edging over 100 due to 
slightly higher dewpoints. Cloud coverage should be high enough to
keep us out of any heat advisory conditions, however, so will not
add any heat impacts to the HWO today. 

25/Owen

.LONG TERM...
Wednesday through Monday.

Northwest flow will remain in place aloft on Wednesday between a
mid-level trough extending from New England southward to the
northern Gulf, and a mid-level ridge extending from the Southern
Plains westward to the Pacific. A shortwave ridge will also be in
place over the Midwest, ahead of a shortwave trough over the
Northern Plains. Northerly low-level flow associated with high
pressure over the Great Lakes will allow the cool front to sink
southward towards the I-85 corridor afternoon. The ECMWF has
actually trended towards the other models in showing some drier
air mixing down across the northern counties during the afternoon.
This will set up a sharp moisture/PoP gradient with scattered to
numerous showers/storms across the south and rain-free conditions
across the north. Heavy rainfall/localized flooding will remain
possible in the high PWAT airmass along/south of I-85/Highway 80. 
Dew points look to mix down into the 60s over at least some of the
northern counties, but temperatures will still hit 90 in most
spots. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will remain possible
Wednesday night in the far southern counties near the front. Any
MCS that develops over the Plains/Ozarks would likely remain well
to the west over the ArkLaMiss.

On Thursday, the Northern Plains shortwave/upper low will move
into MN while a lead shortwave will extend southward towards
northwest Alabama. A wave of low pressure more noticeable at 850mb
than at the surface will develop in the area of convection along
the stalled front along the Gulf Coast. The ECMWF has trended
slower with the development of this feature more in line with the
other models, and therefore the model consensus now indicates the
front will be a bit slower to lift back north as a warm front. 
This will keep the drier air mass in place longer across the area.
PoPs were reduced and may be reduced further in future updates in
north-central/interior portions of the area. Best rain chances 
will be in the far southeast closest to the stalled front.

The GFS and ECMWF remain in some disagreement for Friday. The
ECMWF is quicker to lift out the wave of low pressure up the East
Coast and therefore has more moisture return compared to the GFS.
Will go with PoPs in the scattered category areawide. Any storms
that do develop Friday afternoon could be strong with 0-6 km bulk
shear values of 20-25 kts, dry air aloft, and increasing mid-
level lapse rates. 

Troughing will continue to amplify over the eastern CONUS Friday
night into Saturday, as an unseasonably strong vertically stacked
low moves into the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front. An 
area of unseasonably strong northwesterly mid and upper-level flow
will be located along its southern flank. Friday night, there will
be the potential for one more more MCSs to form along the front.
The best upper-level forcing will remain north of the area, but
Corfidi vectors would support some activity making it into our
northern counties. If an MCS or organized cluster is able to hold
together when it arrives Friday night, 0-6 km bulk shear values of
30-35 kts and strengthening mid-level lapse rates would be 
supportive of the potential for it to be strong to severe.
However, confidence in the strength/track of any MCSs this far out
is too low to mention in the HWO at this time, especially given
the nocturnal timing. 

The cold front will move into the area on Saturday. Unusually
strong (for late July) 0-6 km bulk shear values of 30-40 kts and
decent mid-level lapse rates would be supportive of a threat of 
strong to severe storms assuming sufficient instability. Main wild
cards are outflow from the possible MCS Friday night and what 
impact that could have on destabilization. Some drier air may move
in aloft which could limit storm coverage. Given the uncertainty 
this far out, will not add a severe mention to the HWO to this 
time, but one could be added in future updates if trends continue.
The potential main threat would be damaging winds.

A drier air mass looks to move into much of the area
Sunday/Monday as the trough remains over the eastern CONUS, 
resulting in reduced rain chances, dependent on where the front
stalls and residual boundary layer moisture. 

32/Davis

Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For LOWER MOBILE County
1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018
COASTAL ALABAMA
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
MOBILE REG APT TSTM      75  72  90 E8        30.07R VSB 1            
BROOKLEY FIELD TSTM      87  80  79 SE9       30.06S HX 103           
USA CAMPUS*    NOT AVBL                                               
DOG RIVER*       N/A     86  79  79 S14         N/A  HX  99           

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
GULF SHORES    PTSUNNY   83  76  79 SW16      30.07S                  

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 1200pm CDT, Tuesday July 17, 2018

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 85 degrees north, near 84 degrees central, and near 75 degrees south. Current sky conditions are partly sunny north, partly sunny central, and thunderstorms south. In the north, relative humidity is near 80%, and the dew point is near 78 degrees. The heat index is near 96 degrees north. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 71%, and the dew point is near 74 degrees. The heat index is near 91 degrees central. In the south, relative humidity is near 90%, and the dew point is near 72 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is danger north, danger central, and no stress south. Winds are from the west at 3 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 6 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the east at 8 mph south, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to thunderstorms. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 89 degrees at Dothan. The lowest temperature is 75 degrees at Mobile.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For LOWER MOBILE County
Hazardous report currently not available
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

Current FORECAST not available 12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                              ALABAMA                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   JUL 22-26    JUL 24-30    JUL       JUL-SEP                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above     Normal     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Tuesday July 17, 2018 the 198th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination 21.020000
Distance 0.999716 AU
Rise 06:51 EDT Set 20:57 EDT
Transit Meridian 13:54 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:24 EDT Ends 21:24 EDT

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

///////////////////////
JULY 17TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1934...
One of the worst heat waves in the history of the nation commenced. During
the last two weeks of the month extreme heat claimed 679 lives in Michigan,
including 300 in Detroit alone. (The Weather Channel)
...1941...
A prolonged heat wave over Washington State finally came to an end.
Lightning from untimely thunderstorms was responsible for 598 forest fires.
(David Ludlum)
...1952...
Thunderstorms helped the temperatur at Key West FL to dip to 69 degrees, to
equal their July record established on the first of July in 1923. (The
Weather Channel)
...1957...
On a warm and sunny day at Wilmington DE, with a high of 86 degrees, a dust
devil suddenly appeared. It tore most the roof off one house, and stripped
shingles from a neighboring house. A TV aerial was toppled, and clothes
were blown off clothes lines. (The Weather Channel)
...1987...
Slow moving thunderstorms caused flooding on the Guadalupe River in Texas
resulting in tragic loss of life. A bus and van leaving a summer youth camp
stalled near the rapidly rising river, just west of the town of Comfort,
and a powerful surge of water swept away 43 persons, mostly teenagers. Ten
drowned in the floodwaters. Most of the others were rescued from tree tops
by helicopter. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1988...
A dozen cities in the eastern U.S., and six others in California, reported
record high temperatures for the date. Downtown San Francisco CA, with a
high of 103 degrees, obliterated their previous record high of 82 degrees.
Philadelphia PA reported a record five straight days of 100 degree heat,
and Baltimore MD reported a record eight days of 100 degree weather for the
year. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather along the
Middle Atlantic Coast, and over southern New England. (The National Weather
Summary)
...1989...
Thunderstorms produced severe weather from South Dakota to Lousiana, with
126 reports of large hail and damaging winds during the day and night.
Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced hail four inches in diameter in Frontier
County, and at North Platte, causing millions of dollars damage to crops in
Frontier County. Thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced wind gusts to 90 mph at
Peggs. Tahlequah OK was drenched with 5.25 inches of rain. (Storm Data)
(The National Weather Summary)


Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky