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Lee County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.


.NEAR TERM...
Through this afternoon.

An upper level shortwave is moving east over northwest Alabama 
this morning and has generated a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV)
over far eastern Mississippi that moved into our northwest 
counties over the past few hours. This feature has been gradually 
weakening with time with decreased lightning activity and lower 
rainfall rates along with a lower potential of a few strong wind 
gusts. This result was depicted by HRRR model simulations earlier 
this morning and gradual weakening is expected to continue 
according to the modeling and the reason is likely due to a 
stalled weak front that extends from just north of Columbus, MS 
southeast to near Tuscaloosa, AL and further east to near Auburn, 
AL. To the north of this boundary winds are generally out of the 
northeast with slightly lower dew points and temperatures ranging 
from the upper 70's to the lower 80's. South of this boundary dew 
points generally range from the mid to upper 70's with 
temperatures in mid to upper 80's.

Additional convective development has been indicated by radar and
satellite imagery across east-central Mississippi and this
activity is expected to move more to the southeast through midday.
Expect this activity to increasingly affect areas to the south of
where this morning's MCV has tracked. Heavy rainfall, frequent 
lightning strikes and some gusty winds will be possible with the 
heavier activity. Relatively slow storm motions less than 30 knots 
to the east/southeast will pose a risk for localized flooding, 
especially in urban and poor drainage areas.

While the trend at this hour is gradual weakening with convection,
expect the trend to reverse by midday with increased low level
instability favoring new development especially across our eastern
and southeast counties, especially near and south of the
aforementioned weak front where instability will be maximized in
our CWA.

05

.SHORT TERM...
This evening and overnight.

The front could waffle a little further south, but not much 
additional progress is expected as the main low moves off further 
into the Atlantic and the boundary here weakens. In the upper 
levels, a low pressure system will dip out of the Dakotas toward 
Iowa through tonight with the associated trough dipping 
southeastward into Eastern Conus. At the same time, shortwave 
activity is expected to rotate around it through the Deep South 
and could help generate convective activity along the stalled 
surface boundary today in Central Alabama. The best chances will 
be in the afternoon and early evening with daytime heating. 
Otherwise, outside of any early storm activity, temperatures will 
be on the seasonable side for today for mid July. 

08

.LONG TERM...
Friday through Thursday.

Ridging strengthens across the South-Central and Southwest CONUS on 
Friday as a low pressure system slides through the Upper Plains and 
into the Midwestern States. The upper level trough deepens as the 
low pressure system strengthens later Friday afternoon and evening. 
As this takes place, warm air advection in the mid-levels will 
increase the capping inversion over Central AL, suppressing 
convection and cloud cover, which will allow temperatures to 
increase into mid 90s, especially in the southwestern counties. 
Dewpoints will also be in the mid 70s, so expect heat indices to 
reach or exceed 105 by peak heating on Friday afternoon. A heat 
advisory may be necessary, but for now, I'll continue mentioning in 
the HWO. 

A few shortwave impulses will likely push through the base of the 
trough Friday night and clip into the northern portions of Central 
AL, which could lead to one or more MCSs across the area. The 
difficulty will be forecasting the timing and location of where 
these MCSs develop and move. With the ridge to our west, warm air 
advection maintains a fairly strong capping inversion that only 
strengthens overnight. The question will be which shortwave (if any) 
will provide enough forcing to overcome the inversion. If 
convective initiation can take place, the environment will be well
primed for strong to severe storms across much of the area. CAPE 
values are forecast to exceed 3000 J/kg, with the NAM even 
painting some areas approaching 5000 J/kg, which wouldn't be out 
of the question considering the high temps and dewpoints coupled 
with the upper level height falls. An upper level jet starts 
sliding into the area on the backside of the trough thanks to the 
deepening upper level low. This will help increase the 
environmental shear with 0-6km Bulk Shear reaching 40-50 kts. The 
GFS has slightly lower values thanks to the absence of a 
significant 850mb jet that the NAM brings in; however, even the 
GFS has sufficient shear to maintain an MCS propagation. 
Therefore, I'll add continue for severe weather in the HWO, mainly
for the northeastern two-thirds of Central AL. Our southwestern 
counties will likely have a stronger capping inversion in place, 
plus the strongest impulses and synoptic height falls are 
currently forecast to be a little further north and east. Some 
uncertainty remains as global and regional models typically won't 
handle mesoscale processes that well. Our higher resolution 
convective-allowing models don't go out far enough right now to 
get a feel for how the event will play out, but given the 
environmental thermodynamics and the synoptic pattern, I would 
expect at least some storms to push through our northeastern areas
later Friday night into Saturday morning leading to the threat 
for damaging winds. The curved hodographs would normally lead to 
concerns for tornado development; however, I'm not sold just yet 
on whether the convective mode (MCS) would be conducive for 
tornadogenesis in this environment. I won't ignore the 
possibility, but will continue mentioning damaging winds as the 
main threat for now. 

For Saturday, the upper level trough digs further south across the 
Southeastern and Eastern CONUS, which allows the ridge to the west 
continue to amplify. This will mark a shift to mainly northerly flow 
across Central AL. The GFS tries to push another weak shortwave 
through Northern GA, which slides yet another MCS along the eastern 
counties Saturday afternoon. This really isn't supported by the NAM 
or ECMWF, and given that by this point, the main trough axis is just 
to our east, I wouldn't expect an MCS to push through like that. 
I'll maintain at least chance PoPs in the east Saturday 
afternoon/evening, but I think most of the severe potential will 
remain to the east of our area. 

The synoptic pattern continues to amplify Sunday into early next 
week with the upper trough digging in across the East Coast and the 
Ridge remaining strong in the Southwest US. Central AL will remain 
caught between the two synoptic features Sunday through at least 
Monday afternoon, leading to the best rain chances being in the 
eastern half of Central AL where the better synoptic uplift will be. 
Areas in the western half would likely see more synoptic 
subsidence on the backside of the trough, leading to relatively 
lower rain chances. By Monday afternoon, the upper level low 
becomes cut-off and drops across Central AL and hangs around the 
Gulf States through at least the middle of next week. More 
southerly flow will return to the region as this takes place, and 
with the added lift of the upper level low , we'll see an increase
in diurnal showers/storms for Tuesday through Thursday. 

25/Owen

Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For LEE County
1200 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018
EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
ANNISTON       FAIR      89  69  51 SE3       29.97F HX  93           
ALEXANDER CITY FAIR      86  80  82 CALM      29.97F HX 100           
AUBURN         NOT AVBL                                               

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 1200pm CDT, Thursday July 19, 2018

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 83 degrees north, near 84 degrees central, and near 85 degrees south. Current sky conditions are fair north, cloudy central, and cloudy south. In the north, relative humidity is near 67%, and the dew point is near 71 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 62%, and the dew point is near 70 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 74%, and the dew point is near 76 degrees. The heat index is near 94 degrees south. The livestock heat stress category is no stress north, no stress central, and danger south. Winds are from the southeast at 3 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the west at 10 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the northwest at 3 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 90 degrees at Ozark and Dothan. The lowest temperature is 76 degrees at Tuscaloosa.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For LEE County, AL

421 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

 DAY ONE  Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Friday through Wednesday.

The combination of high temperatures and humidity will push heat 
index values to around 105 degrees on Friday afternoon and again 
Saturday afternoon. This will occur generally west of a line from 
Eufaula to Alabaster to Hamilton.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday and Saturday across
all of Central Alabama. The main threat will be damaging winds. 
Timing will mainly be Friday evening through Saturday afternoon, but
these times will be refined as we get closer to the event.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
on Friday and Saturday.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook


7-Day Forecast For LEE County, Alabama
1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

THIS AFTERNOON
Thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper 80s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

TONIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Numerous thunderstorms in the evening, then isolated thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

FRIDAY
Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 90. East winds around 5 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. South winds around 5 mph.

SATURDAY
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

SUNDAY
Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 90.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy in the evening then clearing. A 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

MONDAY
Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s.

MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

TUESDAY
Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

WEDNESDAY
Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                              ALABAMA                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   JUL 24-28 JUL 26-AUG 1    JUL       JUL-SEP                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:     Normal        Below      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above     Normal     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Thursday July 19, 2018 the 200th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination 20.660000
Distance 0.999716 AU
Rise 06:52 EDT Set 20:56 EDT
Transit Meridian 13:54 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:25 EDT Ends 21:23 EDT

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

///////////////////////////
JULY 19TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1886...
A hurricane from the Gulf of Mexico crossed Florida causing great damage
from Cedar Keys to Jacksonville. (David Ludlum)
...1901...
Beginning this date, Bowling Green, KY's temperature would rise to or 
above 100 degrees for ten consecutive days, a record.
...1960...
Cow Creek and Greenland Ranch in Death Valley CA reported morning lows of
102 degrees. The afternoon high at Greenland Ranch was 124 degrees, and the
high at Cow Creek that afternoon was 126 degrees. The coolest low for the
entire month for both locations was 82 degrees. (The Weather Channel)
...1974...
A severe thunderstorm with winds to 80 mph and up to two inches of rain
washed out four to five foot deep sections of roadway in Lake Havasu City
AZ. Three persons in a station wagon died as it was carried 3000 feet down
a wash by a ten foot wall of water. (The Weather Channel)
...1977...
Thunderstorms produced torrential rains over parts of southwestern
Pennsylvania. Some places receive more than twelve inches in a seven hour
period. The heavy rains cause flash flooding along streams resulting in
widespread severe damage. The cloudburst floods Johnstown with up to ten
feet of water resulting in 76 deaths, countless injuries, and 424 million
dollars damage. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
...1987...
Fifteen cities in the western and the southeastern U.S. reported record low
temperatures for the date, including Winnemucca NV with a reading of 33
degrees. Flagstaff AZ reported a record low of 34 degrees. Afternoon and
evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in New York State and New
Jersey. High winds and hail two inches in diameter injured two persons and
caused considerable damage to crops in the Pine Island area of central New
York State. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1988...
Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced more than five inches of rain at Red
Cloud, including two inches in fifteen minutes. Torrid temperatures
continued over California, with record highs of 115 degrees at Red Bluff
and 116 degrees at Redding. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1989...
Early morning thunderstorms in the Lower Mississippi Valley produced 5.50
inches of rain south of Alexander AR in just ninety minutes, and flash
flooding which resulted claimed the life of one woman. Thunderstorms in
Indiana produced 4.95 inches of rain in twelve hours east of Muncie. Eight
cities in the southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the
date, including Las Vegas NV with a reading of 115 degrees, and Phoenix AZ
with a high of 116 degrees. The low that night at Phoenix of 93 degrees was
the warmest of record for that location. (The National Weather Summary)
(Storm Data)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky