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Lawrence County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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36 Hr. Forecast Map
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Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts





US Weekly Rainfall Departure



US Weekly Temperature Departure
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.


.SHORT TERM...
Tonight and Tuesday.

At this writing, most locations have at least tied their record
high temperatures and we still have a few hours of heating left.
Therefore, a pretty good chance of a record sweep today. Low level
thicknesses and 850mb temperatures both increase on Tuesday. We
will start off Tuesday with some cloud cover, and expect some
patchy areas of cloudiness to hang around much of the day.
Southerly winds and high pressure anchored east of us will keep
those temperatures quite warm. The local scheme would indicate a
3-4 degree increase tomorrow, but held it around 2 degrees due to
some clouds. At any rate, another near record afternoon. Overnight
night lows will be around the 60 degree mark area wide, the normal
high temperature for mid February. The models have a small area of
lift moving south to north over Central Alabama Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Deep layer moisture is limited, but will leave a 20
pop daytime, and 20-30 pop Tuesday night.

The trend in the extended appears that it is ongoing. The NAM and
ECMWF are close with the GFS most aggressive on frontal position
and higher rain chances Wed-Thu. This is due to the handling of 
our anomalous ridge east southeast blocking any front from 
zipping through. We have been trending slightly lower for pops and
will hold these values steady at this time.

75

.LONG TERM...
Wednesday through Monday.

Meanwhile, a surface low develops and moves northeastward into 
the Great Lakes region on Tuesday and stretches a cold front 
through the Midwest and into the Ozarks. This front will slowly 
push southeastward towards Central AL Tuesday night through 
Wednesday. The GFS has come into much better agreement with the EC
and Canadian with this front as it slows and stalls in North 
MS/Western TN. The anomalous ridge to our east essentially blocks 
the frontal passage and the warm air advection across the Gulf 
States lifts the front northward as an effective warm front on 
Thursday. Because of the better model agreement, I've got more 
confidence in decreasing PoPs Wednesday and Thursday overall, but 
keeping some chances north of the I-20 corridor on Thursday as 
some isentropic lift in the warm sector may lead to rain showers 
on this side of the front. Areas in the far northwest will likely 
see the best chances for rain and thunderstorms on Thursday 
afternoon due to proximity of the front. It's worth noting that 
areas along and south of the I-85 corridor may not see any effects
from the front, so could remain unseasonably warm all week long. 

By Thursday night into Friday, expect the front to be lifted north 
of the area, leaving only lower chance to slight chance PoPs across 
the northern half of Central AL. As we go into the weekend, models 
are in surprisingly good agreement with the next frontal system's 
initial timing. Expect the previously stalled cold front to push 
into Central AL late Saturday night into Sunday morning, so rain 
chances increase north of I-20 Saturday then across much of the 
Central portions of the State on Sunday. How this front behaves 
after Sunday is still in question as the GFS weakens the anomalous 
ridge and pushes the front through, leading to a dry start to next 
week. However, the ECMWF maintains the ridge and stalls that front 
over Central AL, leading to continued rain chances on Monday. NAEFs 
still highlights the anomalous ridge through Sunday, albeit not as 
strong as earlier in the forecast period. Therefore, my thoughts are 
that the ridge will hold and at least slow the front down, so have 
kept at least chance PoPs in the forecast Sunday night and Monday.

25/Owen

Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For LAWRENCE County
900 PM CST MON FEB 19 2018
NORTHWEST ALABAMA
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
SHOALS AIRPORT FAIR      65  57  75 SE8       30.17R                  

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 900pm CST, Monday February 19, 2018

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 65 degrees north, near 70 degrees central, and near 70 degrees south. Current sky conditions are mostly cloudy north, fair central, and fair south. In the north, relative humidity is near 75%, and the dew point is near 57 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 61%, and the dew point is near 56 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 87%, and the dew point is near 66 degrees. Winds are from the southeast at 6 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southeast at 9 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southeast at 10 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category north, no stress category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 72 degrees at Troy and Montgomery. The lowest temperature is 64 degrees at Huntsville.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For LAWRENCE County, AL

156 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

 DAY ONE  Tonight  

No hazardous weather is expected at this time. 

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Tuesday through Sunday  

Isolated thunderstorms, embedded in more widespread showers are 
possible across the region Wednesday into Thursday. Chances for more
thunderstorms return on Saturday into Sunday. 

 SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT  

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is 
not anticipated at this time.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook


7-Day Forecast For LAWRENCE County, Alabama
827 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

REST OF TONIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY
Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

WEDNESDAY
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Showers likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

THURSDAY
Cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 60 percent.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 60s.

FRIDAY
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs in the mid 70s.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 60s.

SATURDAY
Cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 70 percent.

SUNDAY
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 40s.

MONDAY
Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the mid 60s.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                              ALABAMA                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                FEB 25-MAR 1 FEB 27-MAR 5    MAR       MAR-MAY                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above     Normal      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above       Normal      Above     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Monday February 19, 2018 the 50th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination -10.920000
Distance 0.999723 AU
Rise 07:27 EST Set 18:37 EST
Transit Meridian 13:01 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:03 EST Ends 19:01 EST

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

FEBRUARY 19TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1871...
A. Lapham, in Cincinnati, wrote the first public weather forecast.
...1884...
Severe thunderstorms spawned sixty tornadoes in the southeastern U.S.,
killing more than 420 persons and causing three million dollars damage.
Georgia and the Carolinas hardest were hit in the tornado outbreak. (David
Ludlum)
...1888...
A tornado struck Mount Vernon IL. The tornado killed sixteen persons along
its 62 mile path. (David Ludlum)
...1954...
High winds across the southern half of the Great Plains, gusting to 85 mph,
caused the worst duststorms since the 1930s. Graders were needed in places
to clear fence high dirt drifts. (The Weather Channel)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky