A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
this afternoon, with sunny skies now across the south. Post
frontal stratus has lingered near and north of the I-20 corridor.
This has caused quite a range in temperatures today, with low 40s
in the far northwest to mid 70s in the far southeast. For the rest
of this afternoon and early evening, expect rain free conditions,
but the clouds will remain across the north with near steady
temps north of I-20.
Low level winds will become southerly this evening in response to
a weak surface low strengthening to our west, and the front to our
south will begin to move northward as a warm front. After 9-10pm,
temperatures should gradually increase overnight. Weak isentropic
lift will bring a return of clouds to the entire area, and
isolated showers across the north before midnight. Deep layer
southwesterly flow increases as a upper level trough in the
northern Plains. Rain coverage increases to our north and west,
where a new cold front develops, and spreads into northern
portions of Central Alabama before sunrise. With increasing shear
and weak elevated cape, cannot rule out a few sustained updrafts
and thunderstorms in the northwest, but strong or severe storms
are not expected.
Sunday through Friday.
Strong/moist southwest flow between a positively tilted trough
over the southwestern CONUS and a strong 594 decameter subtropical
ridge centered near the Bahamas will be the dominant weather
feature for the extended period. As a front oscillates over the
area, multiple rounds of rainfall are expected with flooding
concerns by the middle of the week.
An upper low over the Siouxland region of the Plains will be in
the process of shearing into an open wave on Sunday, while a
strong (185kts at 250mb and 115 kts at 500mb) southwesterly mid
and upper-level jet streak will extend from Texas to the Ohio
Valley. At the surface, a warm front will be lifting northward
through Central Alabama as a weak surface low moves northeastward
into Kentucky and Tennessee, while a cold front moves eastward
into Mississippi and West Alabama. A weak wedge will build into
north Georgia in response to elongated high pressure over southern
Canada. Southwest surface winds should help erode the wedge over
all but our far northeastern areas. Moist isentropic lift and
associated showers will be ongoing in our northern counties in the
morning. Strengthening isentropic lift and frontogenetical
forcing along with increasing moisture will result in a band of
light to moderate rain developing across the northern two-thirds
of the area by afternoon. Despite warm temperatures across our
southern counties, little to no surface-based instability will be
present. Additionally, 500mb height rises will be present,
indicative of synoptic-scale subsidence. Therefore, severe storms
are not expected, and there is only a small chance of a rumble of
thunder with very weak elevated instability. Rain will continue
into the evening hours, ending from northwest to southeast later
in the night as the cold front pushes southeastward. Rainfall
totals of up to an inch are possible.
Monday now looks to be a dry day outside of a few lingering
morning showers in the far southern counties. Cool northerly post-
frontal winds will be present with highs at or just below seasonal
averages, as a 1040 mb high pressure builds into the Northern
Plains. Southerly flow re-develops aloft after midnight Monday
night, resulting in warm air advection and moist isentropic lift
aloft over a cooler and drier air mass at the surface. Meanwhile
easterly flow will develop at the surface as high pressure moves
eastward to New England and a weak surface low begins to develop
near the Texas Gulf Coast. Light rain will develop after midnight
Monday night as the column begins to saturated.
Tuesday through Thursday:
Another shortwave trough will eject
out over the Southern Plains from the southwestern CONUS trough
Tuesday/Tuesday night. A wave of low pressure will lift
northeastward into North Mississippi, preceded by an inverted
trough. Southerly flow aloft will continue to strengthen as
moisture increases. The strong isentropic lift will result in
widespread moderate rainfall especially across the northern half
of the area during the day on Tuesday. The surface low will try to
pull the warm front northward from the coast, but will be
inhibited at least initially given the developing CAD wedge, and
evaporative cooling effects of rain falling north of the warm
front. High temperatures were lowered Tuesday given the easterly
flow and evaporative cooling effects. Rainfall during the day does
not look to be heavy enough to cause major flooding issues outside
of poor drainage areas, but will cause soils to begin to saturate.
Main forecast challenge will be Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Drier mid-level air will temporarily move into most of the area
except for the northwest/far west Tuesday night, decreasing
rainfall rates over all but the northwest/far west. In the
northwest/far west, PWATs and instability will be increasing. A
band of heavy rainfall will set up in the vicinity of the surface
low/surface trough track. Some model trends keep this just to the
northwest of the forecast area Tuesday night, but it's still
possible it could shift back to the southeast, especially if the
effective warm front is not able to make it as far north due to
rain falling north of it. Will keep in a low confidence flooding
mention Tuesday night, mainly for the northwest.
The cold front will slowly move into the western part of the state
on Wednesday, with PWATs increasing to around 1.7 inches. Models
indicate some differences with the speed of the front and where it
will stall Wednesday night. This will be key to the flooding
potential, with an increased flooding threat the further west it
stalls. Also, some surface-based instability will develop,
resulting in a potential marginal threat of severe weather.
However, limiting factors will be uncertainty of where the warm
front will be and if the atmosphere can destabilize given all the
rainfall. Also, upper-level support will be very limited with only
some weak glancing 500mb height falls. Therefore, confidence is
too low to mention any severe threat in the HWO at this time given
the dependence on mesoscale details. This does appear to be the
main period to focus on for flooding potential, so will bump up
the confidence slightly in the HWO for Wednesday. Limiting factors
are the lack of uni-directional flow which will limit cell
training except along the boundary, and lack of confidence in the
position of the boundary. However the high PWATs are certainly
something to watch. The flooding threat will probably linger into
Thursday as the front stalls near the area.
Sunday through Thursday rainfall totals from WPC have come down
slightly, with 4-6 inches now forecast along and north of I-20.
This is in line with the ensemble means. The higher values
depicted by the deterministic models still remain possible, as
this will depend on where any heavier bands set up. Areal flooding
and river flooding look to be a good bet, with GEFS ensemble based
river forecasts indicating the greatest risk of flooding being in
the Tombigbee basin. The flash flooding threat remains more
unclear, which will be closely monitored over the next couple
Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For JEFFERSON County
500 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2019
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BIRMINGHAM CLOUDY 47 43 86 N6 29.86S
MONTGOMERY FAIR 65 53 65 NW7 29.80R
SHELBY CO ARPT CLOUDY 50 45 83 W5 29.85R
MAXWELL AFB FAIR 65 55 69 W6 29.79R
GREENVILLE FAIR 68 54 60 NW6 29.79R
SELMA N/A 59 52 77 W7 29.82R
PRATTVILLE FAIR 64 54 68 W8 29.80R
BESSEMER CLOUDY 47 44 90 CALM 29.85S
TALLADEGA CLOUDY 51 49 92 N3 29.85R
PELL CITY CLOUDY 52 48 87 CALM 29.85S
MARION MOCLDY 55 48 79 W10 29.83R
SYLACAUGA CLOUDY 55 47 72 N3 29.83R
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
U.S. Radar Map,
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For JEFFERSON County, AL
444 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019
DAY ONE Today and Tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Sunday through Friday.
Several days of rain are forecast Sunday through Friday. Rainfall may
become locally heavy as early as Tuesday evening in the northwest,
with the heaviest rain falling Wednesday and Wednesday night mainly
across the northern half of Central Alabama. This will result in the
risk of flooding on rivers and streams, with the possibility of
isolated flash flooding as well. The risk of flooding will continue
through at least Thursday as additional rain falls.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
Tuesday through Thursday.
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For JEFFERSON County, Alabama
405 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019
Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers late in
the evening. Chance of rain showers after midnight. Lows in the
upper 40s. Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the southeast
after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
SUNDAY Rain showers likely in the morning, then rain showers
and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the
upper 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
SUNDAY NIGHT Cloudy. Rain showers in the evening, then chance
of rain showers after midnight. Lows in the mid 40s. Northwest
winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY Cooler. Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper
50s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers in
the evening, then chance of rain showers after midnight. Lows in
the lower 40s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain
TUESDAY Rain showers. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of rain
near 100 percent.
TUESDAY NIGHT Rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Lows around 50. Chance of rain 90 percent.
WEDNESDAY Warmer. Rain showers and chance of thunderstorms.
Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 90 percent.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT Rain showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 80 percent.
THURSDAY Rain showers likely and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
THURSDAY NIGHT Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the lower 50s.
FRIDAY Mostly cloudy with chance of rain showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain
FRIDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the mid 50s.
SATURDAY Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs around 70.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
FEB 22-26 FEB 24-MAR 2 FEB FEB-APR
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Above Above Above Below
Precipitation: Above Above Above Above
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Saturday February 16, 2019 the 47th Day of Year
Distance 0.999723 AU
Rise 07:31 EST Set 18:34 EST
Transit Meridian 13:01 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:06 EST Ends 18:58 EST
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
Washington D.C. received 1.26 inches of rain in six hours atop a snow cover
more than 30 inches deep making it the soggiest day of record. (Sandra and
TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
The temperature at Pokegama Dam MN plunged to 59 degrees below zero to
establish a state record. (David Ludlum)
Record cold prevailed in the northeastern U.S. The mercury plunged to 43
degrees below zero at Concord NH, and to -39 degrees at Portland ME. The
morning low of -32 degrees at Falls Village CT established a state record,
yet the afternoon high that day was 20 degrees above zero. (David Ludlum)
(The Weather Channel)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky