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Jefferson County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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36 Hr. Forecast Map
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Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts





US Weekly Rainfall Departure



US Weekly Temperature Departure
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.


.SHORT TERM...
Tonight through Saturday.

--Increasing cloudiness with spells of showers overnight into 
Saturday; cooler temperatures inbound--

The northern perimeter of 500mb ridging draped over the region 
today/Friday will get shunted southward during the period as a 
large upper trough moves through the Great Lakes region. This will
aid in the progression of a front through Central Alabama. 
Forecast guidance is in agreement in modeling a band of rain 
showers sweeping through the region from northwest to southeast, 
first arriving across our northwest counties overnight/early 
morning, and exiting from our southeast counties late 
afternoon/early evening. This won't be an all-day rain event, and 
many communities will have a portion of the day that is rain-free, 
though cloudy, either early or later in the day depending on 
location. Most of the rain should be light as well.

Saturday's highs will be noticeably cooler and the same will be true 
for Saturday night's lows in wake of the frontal passage.

89^GSatterwhite

.LONG TERM...
Sunday through Friday.

No changes were made to the forecast for the middle to latter
portion of next week. 12Z operational and ensemble model runs 
continue to exhibit variability regarding the evolution, timing,
and track of a potential storm system. It appears rain/storms are
in the cards for a portion of the region at some point, though.

89^GSatterwhite

Previous long-term discussion: 

The cold air advection during the overnight hours Saturday will 
have a noticeable impact as low temperatures Sunday morning will 
be 15-20 degrees colder than Saturday morning. By Sunday afternoon
the highs across the area are only expected to reach into the 
60s, very close to the low temps Saturday morning. 

Ridging builds in across the Southeastern States as a surface high 
slides through TN/KY and into the Coastal Mid-Atlantic States by 
early Monday morning. Synoptic scale subsidence will lead to 
clearing skies during this time, leading to effective radiational 
cooling Sunday night into Monday morning, which will allow 
temperatures to drop into the low 40s area-wide as we wake up for 
the beginning of the work week Monday morning. Some locations in the 
far north will likely drop below 40. The current forecast has our 
northern counties in the 37-40 degree range, which is still above 
the threshold for any frost advisories (36 degrees). We'll have to 
monitor the forecast trends in those northern counties since we'll 
be getting close to the advisory temperatures.

The center of the 850mb ridge has shifted off the Carolina Coast by 
Monday afternoon, veering our winds more southwesterly to southerly, 
though the speeds will remain pretty low, so I'm not sure how much 
moisture advection will take place. At the very least, it will cut-
off the cold air advection, which will allow our diurnal temperature 
ranges to moderate back to near-normal values (highs in 70s, lows in 
50s). This takes place under generally zonal flow aloft, which 
continues into Tuesday before ridging begins to build in again by 
mid-week ahead of a deepening trough over the Rockies. This will 
keep our weather more seasonable and dry through the first half of 
next week. The forecast towards the end of the week becomes more 
uncertain as models have struggled with the evolution of that trough 
in the Rockies. Guidance does suggest that another shortwave will 
eject from the trough at some point Thursday or Friday, leading to 
increased rain chances across Central AL, but details are uncertain; 
therefore, I've only carried 30-40% PoPs for the end of the extended 
period. 

25/Owen


Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For JEFFERSON County
1200 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2018
CENTRAL ALABAMA
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BIRMINGHAM     MOCLDY    72  64  76 SW5       30.12F                  
MONTGOMERY     FAIR      70  69  97 CALM      30.11F                  
SHELBY CO ARPT FAIR      68  65  90 CALM      30.12F                  
MAXWELL AFB    FAIR      69  68  98 CALM      30.10F FOG              
GREENVILLE     FAIR      72  68  87 S3        30.11F                  
SELMA          FAIR      68  68 100 CALM      30.10F                  
PRATTVILLE     FAIR      67  67 100 CALM      30.10F                  
BESSEMER       FAIR      66  66 100 S5        30.12F                  
TALLADEGA      MOCLDY    66  65  94 CALM      30.11F                  
PELL CITY      PTCLDY    68  68 100 S3        30.11F                  
MARION         FAIR      67  62  85 CALM      30.10F                  
SYLACAUGA      MOCLDY    66  66 100 CALM      30.13S                  

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 1200am CDT, Saturday October 20, 2018

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 67 degrees north, near 72 degrees central, and near 75 degrees south. Current sky conditions are cloudy north, mostly cloudy central, and fair south. In the north, relative humidity is near 63%, and the dew point is near 54 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 76%, and the dew point is near 64 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 73 degrees. Winds are from the west at 3 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 5 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the south at 6 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 75 degrees at Mobile. The lowest temperature is 64 degrees at Alexander City.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For JEFFERSON County, AL

340 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

 DAY ONE  Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook


7-Day Forecast For JEFFERSON County, Alabama
1230 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

REST OF THE NIGHT
Cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers after midnight. Chance of rain showers early this morning. Lows around 60. Light winds becoming west around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

SATURDAY
Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely in the morning, then slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Colder. Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY
Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Northeast winds around 5 mph.

MONDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.

MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Lows around 50.

TUESDAY
Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 70s.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.

WEDNESDAY
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the lower 70s.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain showers. Lows in the mid 50s.

THURSDAY
Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the upper 60s.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain showers. Lows in the mid 50s.

FRIDAY
Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the upper 60s.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                              ALABAMA                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   OCT 25-29 OCT 27-NOV 2    OCT       OCT-DEC                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Below        Below                                            
 Precipitation:      Above        Above                                            

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Saturday October 20, 2018 the 293th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination -10.680000
Distance 0.999721 AU
Rise 07:57 EDT Set 19:08 EDT
Transit Meridian 13:32 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 07:33 EDT Ends 19:32 EDT

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

////////////////////////////
OCTOBER 20TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1770...
An exceedingly great storm struck eastern New England causing extensive
coastal damage from Massachusetts to Maine, and the highest tide in 47
years. (David Ludlum)
...1983...
Remnants of Pacific Hurricane Tico caused extensive flooding in central and
south central Oklahoma. Oklahoma City set daily rainfall records with 1.45
inch on the 19th, and 6.28 inches on the 20th. (17th-21st) (The Weather
Channel)
...1987...
Cold arctic air invaded the Upper Midwest, and squalls in the Lake Superior
snowbelt produced heavy snow in eastern Ashland County and northern Iron
County of Wisconsin. Totals ranged up to 18 inches at Mellen. In the
western U.S., the record high of 69 degrees at Seattle WA was their
twenty-fifth of the year, their highest number of record highs for any
given year. Bakersfield CA reported a record 146 days in a row with daily
highs 80 degrees or above. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1988...
Unseasonably warm weather continued in the western U.S. In California,
afternoon highs of 96 degrees at Redding and Red Bluff were records for the
date. (The National Weather Summary)
...1989...
Forty-nine cities reported record low temperatures for the date as readings
dipped into the 20s and 30s across much of the south central and
southeastern U.S. Lows of 32 degrees at Lake Charles LA and 42 degrees at
Lakeland FL were records for October, and Little Rock AR reported their
earliest freeze of record. Snow blanketed the higher elevations of Georgia
and the Carolinas. Melbourne FL dipped to 47 degrees shortly before
midnight to surpass the record low established that morning. Showers and
thunderstorms brought heavy rain to parts of the northeastern U.S. Autumn
leaves on the ground clogged drains and ditches causing flooding. Up to
4.10 inches of rain soaked southern Vermont in three days. Flood waters
washed 600 feet of railroad track, resulting in a train derailment. (The
National Weather Summary)(Storm Data)


Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky