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Jefferson County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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36 Hr. Forecast Map
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Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts

US Weekly Rainfall Departure

US Weekly Temperature Departure
Also see:

A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.

this afternoon, with sunny skies now across the south. Post 
frontal stratus has lingered near and north of the I-20 corridor.
This has caused quite a range in temperatures today, with low 40s
in the far northwest to mid 70s in the far southeast. For the rest
of this afternoon and early evening, expect rain free conditions,
but the clouds will remain across the north with near steady 
temps north of I-20. 

Low level winds will become southerly this evening in response to
a weak surface low strengthening to our west, and the front to our
south will begin to move northward as a warm front. After 9-10pm,
temperatures should gradually increase overnight. Weak isentropic
lift will bring a return of clouds to the entire area, and 
isolated showers across the north before midnight. Deep layer
southwesterly flow increases as a upper level trough in the
northern Plains. Rain coverage increases to our north and west, 
where a new cold front develops, and spreads into northern 
portions of Central Alabama before sunrise. With increasing shear 
and weak elevated cape, cannot rule out a few sustained updrafts 
and thunderstorms in the northwest, but strong or severe storms 
are not expected. 


Sunday through Friday.

Strong/moist southwest flow between a positively tilted trough 
over the southwestern CONUS and a strong 594 decameter subtropical
ridge centered near the Bahamas will be the dominant weather 
feature for the extended period. As a front oscillates over the 
area, multiple rounds of rainfall are expected with flooding 
concerns by the middle of the week.

Sunday/Sunday night:
An upper low over the Siouxland region of the Plains will be in
the process of shearing into an open wave on Sunday, while a
strong (185kts at 250mb and 115 kts at 500mb) southwesterly mid
and upper-level jet streak will extend from Texas to the Ohio
Valley. At the surface, a warm front will be lifting northward
through Central Alabama as a weak surface low moves northeastward
into Kentucky and Tennessee, while a cold front moves eastward
into Mississippi and West Alabama. A weak wedge will build into
north Georgia in response to elongated high pressure over southern
Canada. Southwest surface winds should help erode the wedge over
all but our far northeastern areas. Moist isentropic lift and 
associated showers will be ongoing in our northern counties in the
morning. Strengthening isentropic lift and frontogenetical 
forcing along with increasing moisture will result in a band of 
light to moderate rain developing across the northern two-thirds 
of the area by afternoon. Despite warm temperatures across our 
southern counties, little to no surface-based instability will be 
present. Additionally, 500mb height rises will be present, 
indicative of synoptic-scale subsidence. Therefore, severe storms 
are not expected, and there is only a small chance of a rumble of 
thunder with very weak elevated instability. Rain will continue 
into the evening hours, ending from northwest to southeast later 
in the night as the cold front pushes southeastward. Rainfall 
totals of up to an inch are possible.

Monday/Monday night:
Monday now looks to be a dry day outside of a few lingering
morning showers in the far southern counties. Cool northerly post-
frontal winds will be present with highs at or just below seasonal
averages, as a 1040 mb high pressure builds into the Northern
Plains. Southerly flow re-develops aloft after midnight Monday
night, resulting in warm air advection and moist isentropic lift
aloft over a cooler and drier air mass at the surface. Meanwhile
easterly flow will develop at the surface as high pressure moves
eastward to New England and a weak surface low begins to develop
near the Texas Gulf Coast. Light rain will develop after midnight
Monday night as the column begins to saturated.

Tuesday through Thursday: 
Another shortwave trough will eject 
out over the Southern Plains from the southwestern CONUS trough 
Tuesday/Tuesday night. A wave of low pressure will lift 
northeastward into North Mississippi, preceded by an inverted 
trough. Southerly flow aloft will continue to strengthen as 
moisture increases. The strong isentropic lift will result in 
widespread moderate rainfall especially across the northern half 
of the area during the day on Tuesday. The surface low will try to
pull the warm front northward from the coast, but will be 
inhibited at least initially given the developing CAD wedge, and 
evaporative cooling effects of rain falling north of the warm 
front. High temperatures were lowered Tuesday given the easterly
flow and evaporative cooling effects. Rainfall during the day does
not look to be heavy enough to cause major flooding issues outside
of poor drainage areas, but will cause soils to begin to saturate.

Main forecast challenge will be Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Drier mid-level air will temporarily move into most of the area 
except for the northwest/far west Tuesday night, decreasing 
rainfall rates over all but the northwest/far west. In the 
northwest/far west, PWATs and instability will be increasing. A 
band of heavy rainfall will set up in the vicinity of the surface 
low/surface trough track. Some model trends keep this just to the 
northwest of the forecast area Tuesday night, but it's still 
possible it could shift back to the southeast, especially if the 
effective warm front is not able to make it as far north due to 
rain falling north of it. Will keep in a low confidence flooding 
mention Tuesday night, mainly for the northwest. 

The cold front will slowly move into the western part of the state
on Wednesday, with PWATs increasing to around 1.7 inches. Models
indicate some differences with the speed of the front and where it
will stall Wednesday night. This will be key to the flooding
potential, with an increased flooding threat the further west it 
stalls. Also, some surface-based instability will develop, 
resulting in a potential marginal threat of severe weather. 
However, limiting factors will be uncertainty of where the warm 
front will be and if the atmosphere can destabilize given all the 
rainfall. Also, upper-level support will be very limited with only
some weak glancing 500mb height falls. Therefore, confidence is 
too low to mention any severe threat in the HWO at this time given
the dependence on mesoscale details. This does appear to be the 
main period to focus on for flooding potential, so will bump up 
the confidence slightly in the HWO for Wednesday. Limiting factors
are the lack of uni-directional flow which will limit cell 
training except along the boundary, and lack of confidence in the 
position of the boundary. However the high PWATs are certainly 
something to watch. The flooding threat will probably linger into 
Thursday as the front stalls near the area.

Sunday through Thursday rainfall totals from WPC have come down 
slightly, with 4-6 inches now forecast along and north of I-20.
This is in line with the ensemble means. The higher values
depicted by the deterministic models still remain possible, as
this will depend on where any heavier bands set up. Areal flooding
and river flooding look to be a good bet, with GEFS ensemble based
river forecasts indicating the greatest risk of flooding being in
the Tombigbee basin. The flash flooding threat remains more
unclear, which will be closely monitored over the next couple


Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For JEFFERSON County
500 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2019
BIRMINGHAM     CLOUDY    47  43  86 N6        29.86S                  
MONTGOMERY     FAIR      65  53  65 NW7       29.80R                  
SHELBY CO ARPT CLOUDY    50  45  83 W5        29.85R                  
MAXWELL AFB    FAIR      65  55  69 W6        29.79R                  
GREENVILLE     FAIR      68  54  60 NW6       29.79R                  
SELMA            N/A     59  52  77 W7        29.82R                  
PRATTVILLE     FAIR      64  54  68 W8        29.80R                  
BESSEMER       CLOUDY    47  44  90 CALM      29.85S                  
TALLADEGA      CLOUDY    51  49  92 N3        29.85R                  
PELL CITY      CLOUDY    52  48  87 CALM      29.85S                  
MARION         MOCLDY    55  48  79 W10       29.83R                  
SYLACAUGA      CLOUDY    55  47  72 N3        29.83R                  

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama

Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For JEFFERSON County, AL

444 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

 DAY ONE  Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Sunday through Friday.

Several days of rain are forecast Sunday through Friday. Rainfall may
become locally heavy as early as Tuesday evening in the northwest, 
with the heaviest rain falling Wednesday and Wednesday night mainly 
across the northern half of Central Alabama. This will result in the 
risk of flooding on rivers and streams, with the possibility of 
isolated flash flooding as well. The risk of flooding will continue 
through at least Thursday as additional rain falls.


Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
Tuesday through Thursday.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For JEFFERSON County, Alabama
405 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers late in the evening. Chance of rain showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 40s. Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Rain showers likely in the morning, then rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Cloudy. Rain showers in the evening, then chance of rain showers after midnight. Lows in the mid 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Cooler. Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers in the evening, then chance of rain showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 40s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Rain showers. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows around 50. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Warmer. Rain showers and chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Rain showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain showers. Lows in the lower 50s.

Mostly cloudy with chance of rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain showers. Lows in the mid 50s.

Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain showers. Highs around 70.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   FEB 22-26 FEB 24-MAR 2    FEB       FEB-APR                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above      Above      Below                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Above      Above                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Saturday February 16, 2019 the 47th Day of Year

Declination -12.060000
Distance 0.999723 AU
Rise 07:31 EST Set 18:34 EST
Transit Meridian 13:01 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:06 EST Ends 18:58 EST

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

Washington D.C. received 1.26 inches of rain in six hours atop a snow cover
more than 30 inches deep making it the soggiest day of record. (Sandra and
TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
The temperature at Pokegama Dam MN plunged to 59 degrees below zero to
establish a state record. (David Ludlum)
Record cold prevailed in the northeastern U.S. The mercury plunged to 43
degrees below zero at Concord NH, and to -39 degrees at Portland ME. The
morning low of -32 degrees at Falls Village CT established a state record,
yet the afternoon high that day was 20 degrees above zero. (David Ludlum)
(The Weather Channel)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky