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Jackson County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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36 Hr. Forecast Map
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Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts

US Weekly Rainfall Departure

US Weekly Temperature Departure
Also see:

A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.

recovery looks substantial enough aided by the enhanced LLJ that 
most, if not all of the area should at least see some measurable 
precip by tomorrow night. Raised PoPs slightly to include most
areas into categorical, leaving the southwest out for now as the 
moisture axis rotates to a more east-west orientation and is a bit
slow to transition southward during the day tomorrow. 


Sunday through Saturday.


The cutoff low currently over northwest Mexico will eject
northeastward across Texas today as a negatively tilted shortwave
trough. Showers and elevated thunderstorms will blossom across
Texas later today and tonight as the shortwave intercepts Gulf
moisture and a developing low-level jet. This will occur north of
a warm front along the Texas Gulf Coast where a weak surface low
will move northeastward. This large complex of showers and a few
thunderstorms will push eastward tonight and be located over
Mississippi early Sunday morning in association with a 40-50 kt
LLJ. Models are in good agreement in bringing this activity into 
the western counties Sunday morning but in a weakened state as it 
encounters a stable air mass over Alabama. The shortwave will lift
quickly northeast away from the area into the Ohio Valley by
midday. This will result in continued weakening/decrease in
coverage with eastward extent, but moist isentropic lift in the
weakening low level jet will maintain shower chances through the
day. Models differ on how far east this activity will make it, and
will indicate decreasing chances further east. Some drier air
aloft will work in from the west behind this system, resulting in
decreased rain chances in the northwest during the afternoon. 
With very little in the way of MUCAPE will not mention thunder 
during this period, and rainfall amounts will be on the lighter 
side. Rain falling into the initially dry air mass at the surface 
will result in cool temperatures being in the 40s as the rain is 
falling, and have continued a lowering trend in high temperatures.
This rain will also slow the progress of a warm front trying to 
lift northward from the coast.

Sunday night through Monday night:

Low confidence forecast for rain chances during this period with
model disagreement continuing. Southwest to west-southwest flow
with potential weak waves will remain in place aloft between 
another cutoff low over the Desert Southwest and a strong 
subtropical ridge near Cuba and the Bahamas. Models differ
regarding how much drier air moves in aloft behind the departing
shortwave and how quickly moisture lifts back into the area. A
precipitation-reinforced front will also be located over the area.
The ECMWF continues to be the driest model during this period,
with more pronounced anti-cyclonic flow aloft due to a stronger
subtropical ridge, and the Canadian has also trended much drier.
The NAM and GFS continue to have a wetter solution. PoPs have
generally trended downward especially across the north during this
period. For Sunday night, will indicate slightly higher PoPs after
midnight versus Sunday evening, with CAMs looking drier at the
tail end of the run at 0z Sunday. The European ensemble is wetter
than the deterministic ECMWF across the southeast after midnight 
Sunday night and Monday morning, so will keep some likely PoPs in.
Overall QPF has trended downward, and the flooding concern looks 
to at least be delayed beyond this period. All models are looking 
fairly dry for Monday evening before ramping up rain chances 
either after midnight Monday night or Tuesday morning. 
Temperatures will be dependent on the position of the frontal 
boundary, which now looks to be further south. Enough elevated 
instability will be present for the potential for isolated thunder
but any surface-based instability will probably stay south of the
forecast area. 


Models have all trended slower with the ejection of the next
southern stream cutoff out of the Desert Southwest, and now
indicate it moving across the area as a compact shortwave trough
on Wednesday. Increasing moisture ahead of this system will ramp
up rain chances beginning Tuesday. The lingering west-to-east
oriented frontal boundary looks to serve as the potential for
training activity with locally heavy rainfall possible due to an
unseasonably moist air-mass. Models differ on the placement of the
front with the GFS giving it an extra push south from a northern
stream shortwave. Have trended more towards the ECMWF solution
which is in agreement with its ensemble mean on a frontal 
position across North Alabama. This places much of the forecast 
area in the warm sector as the shortwave passes with the ECMWF 
indicating a surface low tracking just to the northwest of the 
area. This would be of concern for a potential threat of 
supercells and isolated tornadoes as the ECMWF indicates 65 
dewpoints with a 50 kt LLJ, 500-750 J/kg of CAPE, and 60 kts of 
0-6 km shear. However, all models have been struggling with run to
run consistency issues lately and the GFS keeps the front mainly 
south of the area. Will hold off on mentioning anything in the HWO
at this time until model agreement and consistency improves.

Thursday through Saturday:

Mainly dry conditions are expected Thursday with westerly flow
behind the Wednesday system. Another trough moves into the western
CONUS towards the end of the week as the complicated split flow
pattern continues. This results in another cold frontal passage on
Friday. Sufficient moisture return for appreciable instability to
develop ahead of this front in the wake of the previous system is
uncertain. Cold air will be lurking behind this front with
southwest flow aloft continuing. A threat of wintry precipitation
may develop somewhere across the southern CONUS towards Saturday,
but it's too early to say where. Ensembles favor this threat
remaining northwest of the forecast area, and will keep
precipitation all liquid in the forecast at this time but continue
to monitor.


Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For JACKSON County
400 PM CST SAT DEC 16 2017
ALBERTVILLE    CLOUDY    48  34  57 CALM      30.21R                  
FORT PAYNE     CLOUDY    48  23  37 CALM      30.22R                  
SCOTTSBORO AP  CLOUDY    50  28  43 CALM      30.23R                  
SCOTTSBORO HCN   N/A     50 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
VALLEY HEAD      N/A     46 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 400pm CST, Saturday December 16, 2017

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 50 degrees north, near 52 degrees central, and near 57 degrees south. Current sky conditions are cloudy north, mostly cloudy central, and cloudy south. In the north, relative humidity is near 50%, and the dew point is near 32 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 33%, and the dew point is near 24 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 37%, and the dew point is near 31 degrees. Winds are from the south at 6 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 3 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the south at 6 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category north, no stress category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 58 degrees at Evergreen, Dothan, and Brookely Field. The lowest temperature is 49 degrees at Gadsden.

Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For JACKSON County, AL

248 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

 DAY ONE  Tonight  

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Sunday through Friday  

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday.


Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is 
not anticipated at this time.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For JACKSON County, Alabama
242 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Sunny. South winds around 5 mph.

Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Southeast winds around 5 mph.

Rain. Highs in the upper 40s. Southeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain, mainly in the evening. Near steady temperature in the mid 40s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 60s. East winds around 5 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon.

Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. Lows in the mid 40s. Southwest winds around 5 mph.

Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Showers. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Showers. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 40s.

Partly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s.

Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s.

Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Showers likely. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of rain 70 percent.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   DEC 22-26    DEC 24-30    DEC       DEC-FEB                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:     Normal       Normal      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Below      Below                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Saturday December 16, 2017 the 350th Day of Year

Declination -23.350000
Distance 0.999725 AU
Rise 07:46 EST Set 17:42 EST
Transit Meridian 12:44 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:19 EST Ends 18:09 EST

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

New England experienced one of their coldest days of record. At noon on
that bitterly cold Wednesday the mercury stood at four degrees below at
Boston, 15 degrees below at Norfolk CT, and 17 degrees below at Hanover NH.
The temperature at Boston was 12 degrees below zero by sunset. Gale force
winds accompanied the severe cold, and that night a great New York City
fire destroyed much of the financial district. (David Ludlum)
A bill was introduced in the House of Representatives, 41st Congress, 
calling for the taking [of] meteorological observations at the military 
stations in the interior of the continent, and for giving notice on the 
northern lakes and Atlantic seaboard of the approach and force of storms. 
This would be signed in to law February 9, 1870, by President Grant, 
establishing what would come to be called the National Weather Service. You 
can see the actual bill on-line at: 
An ice jam closed the Ohio River between Warsaw KY and Rising Sun IN. The
thirty foot high ice jam held for 58 days, and backed up the river a
distance of 100 miles. (David Ludlum)
A Pacific storm battered the coast of California with rain and high winds,
and dumped heavy snow on the mountains of California. Winds along the coast
gusted to 70 mph at Point Arguello, and winds in the Tehachapi Mountains of
southern California gusted to 100 mph at Wheeler Ridge. Snowfall totals
ranged up to 24 inches at Mammoth Mountain. Snow fell for two minutes at
Malibu Beach, and Disneyland was closed due to the weather for only the
second time in twenty-four years. A winter storm which began in the
Southern Rockies four days earlier finished its course producing snow and
high winds in New England. Snowfall totals ranged up to 19 inches at
Blanchard ME. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
Fairbanks AK reported freezing rain and record warm temperatures. The
afternoon high of 41 degrees was 43 degrees above normal. Snow and high
winds continued to plague the mountains of southern California. Mount
Wilson CA reported two inches of rain in six hours during the early
morning, and a storm total of more than 3.50 inches of rain. (The National
Weather Summary)
Fifty-seven cities from the Southern and Central Plains to the Appalachians
reported record low temperatures for the date, including North Platte NE
with a reading of 17 degrees below zero. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region
produced 18 inches of snow at Syracuse NY, and 30 inches at Carlisle IND.
Low pressure brought heavy snow to northern New England, with 18 inches
reported at Derby VT and Saint Johnsbury VT. (The National Weather Summary)
(Storm Data)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky