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Elmore County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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36 Hr. Forecast Map
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Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts

US Weekly Rainfall Departure

US Weekly Temperature Departure
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.

Today and Tonight. 

Currently watching a cold front slide through the area this morning. 
Based on obs at 2 am the front appears to be south of I-85 and 
should be out of the area by sunrise. Generally only will see 
scattered to broken high level clouds behind this front along with
cooler temperatures. Highs in be in the 40s across the north to 
low 50s in the far southeast. Lows tonight will drop back below 
freezing along with clearing skies and calm winds. 


Saturday through Friday.

Saturday/Saturday night:
Upper-level ridging will temporarily build over the area on
Saturday, downstream of the cutoff upper low currently over
northwest Mexico that will be ejecting northeastward into Texas as
a shortwave trough in the southern stream. A dry air mass will
remain in place during the day on Saturday with only a steady
stream of high clouds expected. Low-level flow above the surface
will switch to southwesterly as low-level ridging moves eastward.
But at the surface, high pressure initially centered over the area
will only slowly drift eastward towards the Atlantic coast,
keeping surface winds out of the southeast, and the better warm
air advection will hold off until Saturday night. This should keep
high temperatures mainly in the 50s. 

Deep layer southwesterly flow will increase substantially 
Saturday night as the shortwave moves into the ArkLaTex region 
with strong warm air and moisture advection as well as isentropic 
lift just above the surface. However a very dry air mass will 
remain at the surface. A large complex of showers will develop 
over Texas and move eastward in association with a 40-50 kt LLJ, 
as a weak surface low that develops along the stalled front in the
western Gulf also lifts northward. Most models agree that this 
activity will remain in Mississippi prior to 12Z, but with 
increasing moisture in the west and the potential for either 
isolated to scattered showers ahead of this activity, or a 
possible faster timing, have kept in some lower rain chances in 
the west after 3AM. This also agrees with SREF probabilities and 
other ensembles. A strong warm nose aloft will keep precipitation 
all liquid. Low temperatures will probably be reached between 
midnight and 3 AM, before rising slightly towards sunrise. Mainly 
upper 30s to low 40s are expected, with some low to mid 30s in the
cooler northeastern areas. 

The negatively tilted shortwave will lift quickly off to the
northeast, reaching the Ohio Valley by midday while grazing
northwest Alabama during the morning hours. The remnants of
Saturday night's activity should move into western and northern
portions of the area Sunday morning, maintained by the low level
jet. It may weaken with eastward extent by midday as the LLJ
weakens and the upper-level forcing lifts to the northeast. As
this rain falls into the remnant dry air mass at the surface,
temperatures may remain in the 40s across the northwest due to
evaporative cooling. The main focus for shower activity will shift
to the southwest counties by Sunday afternoon, as additional
activity developing near the coast lifts northeastward in the deep
layer southwesterly flow amid increasing deep layer moisture and 
PWATs. A surface warm front will also attempt to lift northward, 
but its northward progression will be slowed initially due to 
evaporative cooling as precipitation falls into the dry air mass 
north of the front. This will all result in a tricky temperatures 
forecast, as highs may struggle to reach 50 across the far north, 
while reaching the upper 60s in the far southeast. Models indicate
very little in the way of MUCAPE and will keep a mention of 
thunder out of the forecast for this period.

Sunday night through Monday night:
The ECMWF has generally trended towards the GFS/Canadian and EPS
ensemble mean with keeping more of a phased trough over the Desert
Southwest and keeping a moist southwesterly flow across the area
for the first half of next week. Yesterday's 12Z ECMWF trended
wetter but then tonight's 00Z run trended drier at least for the
Monday/Monday night period, with uncertainty over the position of
the front and dry air to its north. Overall though, confidence is
increasing that this period will be wet and unsettled, and will
stick closer to the GFS/Canadian during this period which also has
the support of the EPS ensemble mean. Continued deep layer
southwesterly flow between the trough over the Desert Southwest
and a strong ridge near the Bahamas will allow the warm front to
move northward Sunday night into Monday, and temperatures should
rise through the night Sunday night in most locations. Deep layer
moisture, isentropic lift, and broad upper-level lift from the
right entrance region of an upper-level jet streak will promote
high rain chances. Some weak instability will develop which will
allow for a couple thunderstorms as well. Depending on 
precipitation trends, if some pockets of heating develop highs 
could be near 70 in the southern counties Monday afternoon. 
Couldn't rule out an isolated strong strong to severe storm with 
gusty winds/small hail during this time period in the southern 
counties given some instability and deep layer shear. But 
warm/saturated profiles aloft, limited low-level shear, and lack 
of a focusing mechanism are expected to prevent any organized 
threat of severe storms.

PWATs in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range for a somewhat prolonged period
of time, near the climatological maximum for December, and
unidrectional flow does raise some concern for cell training and
locally heavy rainfall. Current WPC QPF indicates area-averaged
amounts of 1 to 2.6 inches through Tuesday. Flash flood guidance
is high due to recent dry conditions with drought currently in
place across the western counties. Streamflows are running below
normal in the west and near normal elsewhere. Most areas could
handle 1 or 2 rounds of heavy rain, but will have to monitor for
flooding if multiple rounds of heavy rain occur. Expect some
localized flooding in poor drainage areas, but confidence in any
widespread flooding is too low to mention in the HWO at this time.
Will continue to monitor QPF trends closely, however. 

Tuesday through Wednesday:
Models disagree on whether the trough will push eastward across 
the area in one or 2 pieces. Will continue to go with the GFS idea
of a cold frontal passage on Tuesday with drier air for 
Wednesday, but the latest ECMWF and its ensemble has trended 
wetter for Wednesday so will have to see it that trend continues. 
Similar to Monday a conditional potential for an isolated strong 
to severe storm exists along the front if some instability 
develops, but weak/veered low-level flow does not appear 
supportive of any organized potential. 

Models seem to be coming into better agreement on another trough
moving into the western CONUS during the second half of the week,
with a strong cold front moving through on Friday. Still too far
out to determine any details regarding whether or not there will
be any threat of severe weather. Also, at this time, 
precipitation is expected to move out before any cold air arrives,
but this is still a week away.


Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For ELMORE County
600 AM CST FRI DEC 15 2017
BIRMINGHAM     CLEAR     31  25  78 CALM      30.12R                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  30; 6HR MAX TEMP:  43;                                

MONTGOMERY     CLOUDY    40  33  76 NW8       30.08R WCI  34          
6HR MIN TEMP:  37; 6HR MAX TEMP:  41;                                

SHELBY CO ARPT CLOUDY    35  25  66 N6        30.09R WCI  30          
6HR MIN TEMP:  35; 6HR MAX TEMP:  44;                                

MAXWELL AFB    MOCLDY    40  34  78 N8        30.06R HAZE    WCI  35  
6HR MIN TEMP:  37; 6HR MAX TEMP:  40;                                

GREENVILLE     FAIR      41  36  82 N8        30.05R                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  37; 6HR MAX TEMP:  43;                                

SELMA          FAIR      39  30  70 N7        30.09R WCI  34          
PRATTVILLE     FAIR      38  33  81 CALM      30.07R                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  34; 6HR MAX TEMP:  40;                                

BESSEMER       FAIR      33  23  66 N7        30.09S WCI  27          
6HR MIN TEMP:  33; 6HR MAX TEMP:  43;                                

TALLADEGA      FAIR      33  26  75 NW3       30.10R                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  33; 6HR MAX TEMP:  41;                                

PELL CITY      SUNNY     30  27  86 N5        30.11R WCI  25          
MARION         FAIR      36  30  77 N6        30.11R WCI  32          
6HR MIN TEMP:  35; 6HR MAX TEMP:  39;                                

SYLACAUGA      FAIR      37  31  79 CALM      30.09R                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  36; 6HR MAX TEMP:  41;                                

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 600am CST, Friday December 15, 2017

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 25 degrees north, near 31 degrees central, and near 47 degrees south. Current sky conditions are mostly cloudy north, clear central, and cloudy south. In the north, relative humidity is near 96%, and the dew point is near 24 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 78%, and the dew point is near 25 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 76%, and the dew point is near 40 degrees. Winds are calm north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the north at 9 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category north, no stress category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 50 degrees at Brookely Field. The lowest temperature is 25 degrees at Decatur.

Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For ELMORE County, AL

423 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

 DAY ONE  Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.


Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For ELMORE County, Alabama
602 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Mostly cloudy. Highs around 50. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds around 5 mph.

Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. Northeast winds around 5 mph in the morning then becoming light.

Not as cool. Mostly cloudy. Lows around 40. East winds around 5 mph.

Cloudy. Rain showers likely in the afternoon. Highs around 60. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Warmer. Rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Near steady temperature in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Rain showers and chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Rain showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Rain showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Cooler. Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain showers. Lows in the upper 40s.

Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the lower 60s.

Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.

Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the mid 60s.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   DEC 20-24    DEC 22-28    DEC       DEC-FEB                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Below      Below                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Friday December 15, 2017 the 349th Day of Year

Declination -23.310000
Distance 0.999725 AU
Rise 07:45 EST Set 17:42 EST
Transit Meridian 12:43 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:19 EST Ends 18:08 EST

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

The first of triple storms hit Massachusetts Bay. The storm produced whole
gales, and more than 20 inches of snow in interior New England. There was
great loss of life at Gloucester MA. (David Ludlum)
An intense cold front swept across the eastern U.S. The cold front produced
heavy rain in Louisiana, and heavy snow in the northeastern U.S. (David
A record December snowstorm buried Buffalo NY under 36.6 inches of snow,
with unofficial totals south of the city ranging up to 70 inches. Travel
was brought to a halt by the storm. (14th-17th) (The Weather Channel)
A major winter storm hit the Great Lakes Region, intensifying explosively
as it crossed northern Illinois. High winds and heavy snow created blizzard
conditions in southeastern Wisconsin. Winds gusted to 73 mph, and snowfall
totals ranged up to 17 inches at LaFarge. The barometric pressure at
Chicago IL dropped three quarters of an inch in six hours to 28.96 inches,
a record low reading for December. Up to a foot of snow blanketed northern
Illinois, and winds in the Chicago area gusted to 75 mph. O'Hare Airport in
Chicago was closed for several hours, for only the fourth time in twenty
years. High winds derailed train cars at Avon IN. Light winds and partly
sunny skies were reported near the center of the storm, a feature typical
of tropical storms. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
High pressure in the Pacific Northwest and low pressure in the southwestern
U.S. combined to produced high winds from Utah to California. Winds gusting
to 70 mph in the San Francisco area left nearly 300,000 residents without
electricity. Winds in Utah gusted to 105 mph at Centerville. (The National
Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
A couple of low pressure systems spread heavy snow across the northeastern
U.S. Up to two feet of snow was reported along Lake Erie in northeastern
Ohio, and up to ten inches was reported in Connecticut. Heavy snow squalls
developed over Michigan for the third day in a row. Three Oaks MI reported
25 inches of snow in two days. Twenty-six cities in the north central U.S.
reported record low temperatures for the date. The low of 10 degrees below
zero at Wichita KS was a December record for that location. (The National
Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky