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Elmore County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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36 Hr. Forecast Map
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Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts





US Weekly Rainfall Departure



US Weekly Temperature Departure
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.


.SHORT TERM...

Today and tonight.

Looking at the overall synoptic pattern across the area, a front is 
draped across Central Alabama. Convection is limited to an outflow 
boundary that moved through the area earlier Saturday evening. 
Meanwhile, a large upper low is centered over the Ohio Valley and 
beginning to slip down toward Tennessee. To emphasize the extent of 
the upper lows impact, feeder bands into this low can be observed on 
IR satellite stretching across the Atlantic and down to near Cuba. 

So for today, the main upper low will begin to drift toward the 
south and begin to impact northern Alabama this afternoon. The cold 
front will slowly slide south at the same time. As it slides south, 
it will also pivot to more of a southwest to northeast orientation, 
in conjunction with the upper low. Rain chances for today will be 
highest in the south ahead of the front, as well as in the northeast 
as the upper low moves in. Activity will likely be more rain showers 
than thunderstorms in the northeast, while activity in the south 
will be mainly thunderstorms. There could be a stronger storm late 
morning and into the afternoon in the southeast in advance of the 
front, but severe potential remains too low to mention at this time. 
Temperatures today will generally be in the 80s north of the front 
and 90s south of the front. 

As we move into tonight, the rain chances in the south will diminish 
by Midnight, at the latest, as the front clears. Activity in the 
northeast will likely continue through the night, with generally a 
scattered nature. Again activity will likely be more showers with a 
rumble or two of thunder. Temperatures overnight will be in the 60s 
north and central, with some lower 70s in the south. 

16

.LONG TERM...
Monday through Sunday.

The overall synoptic pattern doesn't change much through the first 
half of this week. The strong ridging over the Southwest US persists 
as the deep longwave trough is over the Eastern US. The upper low 
tries to become cut-off over the Gulf States on Monday, but 
eventually does get phased back in with the upper trough Tuesday 
into Wednesday. Expect synoptic scale lift associated with the upper 
low to provide increased rain and thunderstorm chances for Central 
AL, especially the eastern two-thirds of the area. We normally don't 
have this type of large-scale forcing in the summer months, so 
thunderstorm coverage will be a little more widespread. Therefore, I 
have gone with generally 60-70% PoPs each afternoon through 
Wednesday. 

Around mid-week, another strong low pressure system moves through 
Manitoba and into Ontario, which acts to lift the troughing over the 
Gulf States northeastward into New England. A remnant frontal 
boundary will likely remain stretched southwestward along the 
East Coast through the second half of the week, but models 
disagree on exactly where this will become stationary. The current
GFS has the stationary boundary setting up through the 
Appalachians and into Central AL, which would lead to continued 
rain chances through at least Saturday or Sunday. However, the 
ECMWF keeps more along the East Coast, so the best convergence is 
south and east of us, allowing us to have more of a typical 
summertime diurnal pattern. For now, have split the difference in 
PoPs for Thursday through Sunday until we know more about where 
the boundary will set up. 

Temperature-wise, we should have more of a moderated daily range 
considering the increased cloud cover, rain chances, and overall 
cold core nature of the upper low. Towards the end of the week, I've 
started a warming trend, but that will again be dependent on how the 
remnant frontal boundary behaves. 

25/Owen


Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For ELMORE County
100 AM CDT MON JUL 23 2018
CENTRAL ALABAMA
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BIRMINGHAM     FAIR      74  67  78 N6        29.83F                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  74; 6HR MAX TEMP:  85;                                

MONTGOMERY     FAIR      76  69  79 NW6         N/A                   
6HR MIN TEMP:  75; 6HR MAX TEMP:  91;                                

SHELBY CO ARPT FAIR      74  68  81 NW3       29.80F                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  73; 6HR MAX TEMP:  84;                                

MAXWELL AFB    NOT AVBL                                               
GREENVILLE     NOT AVBL                                               
SELMA          FAIR      77  68  73 NW5       29.78F                  
PRATTVILLE     FAIR      75  69  81 CALM      29.78F                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  74; 6HR MAX TEMP:  87;                                

BESSEMER       FAIR      73  68  84 NW5       29.82F                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  73; 6HR MAX TEMP:  84;                                

TALLADEGA      FAIR      70  70  99 CALM      29.81S                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  70; 6HR MAX TEMP:  85; 6HR PCP:  0.04;                

PELL CITY      CLEAR     68  68 100 CALM      29.80F FOG              
MARION         FAIR      74  69  85 NW5       29.79F                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  74; 6HR MAX TEMP:  85;                                

SYLACAUGA      FAIR      71  71 100 CALM      29.80F                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  71; 6HR MAX TEMP:  84;                                

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 100am CDT, Monday July 23, 2018

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 69 degrees north, near 74 degrees central, and near 78 degrees south. Current sky conditions are fair north, fair central, and fair south. In the north, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 67 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 78%, and the dew point is near 67 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 76%, and the dew point is near 70 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is no stress north, no stress central, and no stress south. Winds are calm north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the north at 6 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the northwest at 3 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 80 degrees at Brookely Field. The lowest temperature is 69 degrees at Decatur and Anniston.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For ELMORE County, AL

323 AM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

 DAY ONE  Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook


7-Day Forecast For ELMORE County, Alabama
102 AM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

REST OF THE NIGHT
Mostly clear. Near steady temperature in the lower 70s. Northwest winds around 5 mph.

MONDAY
Partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. North winds around 5 mph in the evening then becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.

TUESDAY
Partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Highs around 90. Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

WEDNESDAY
Thunderstorms likely. Highs around 90. Chance of rain 60 percent.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

THURSDAY
Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

FRIDAY
Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s.

SATURDAY
Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s.

SUNDAY
Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                              ALABAMA                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                JUL 28-AUG 1 JUL 30-AUG 5    JUL       JUL-SEP                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Below        Below      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above     Normal     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Monday July 23, 2018 the 204th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination 19.870000
Distance 0.999716 AU
Rise 06:55 EDT Set 20:54 EDT
Transit Meridian 13:54 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:28 EDT Ends 21:21 EDT

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

////////////////////////
JULY 23RD...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1788...
A weather diary kept by George Washington recorded that the center of a
hurricane passed directly over his Mount Vernon home. The hurricane crossed
eastern North Carolina and Virginia before moving into the Central
Appalachians. Norfolk VA reported houses destroyed, trees uprooted, and
crops leveled to the ground. (David Ludlum)
...1898...
A two hour thunderstorm deluged Atlanta GA with 4.32 inches of rain. More
than a foot of water flooded Union Depot. Many street car motors burned out
while trying to run through flooded streets. It grew so dark before the
afternoon storm that gas lights were needed. (The Weather Channel)
...1923...
Sheridan WY was drenched with 4.41 inches of rain, an all-time 24 hour
record for that location. Associated flooding washed out 20 miles of
railroad track. (22nd-23rd) (The Weather Channel)
...1987...
Thunderstorms produced a record ten inches of rain in six and a half hours
at Minneapolis MN, including 5.26 inches in two hours. Flash flooding
claimed two lives and caused 21.3 million dollars damage. Streets in
Minneapolis became rushing rivers, parking lots became lakes, and storm
sewers spouted like geysers. A tornado hit Maple Grove MN causing five
million dollars damage. Baseball size hail was reported at Olivia MN. (The
National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1988...
Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Lower Michigan and northern Ohio,
over eastern sections of the Dakotas, and over the Central High Plains
Region. Showers and thunderstorms soaked Wilmington NC with another two
inches of rain, following six and a half inches the previous day. (The
National Weather Summary)
...1989...
Morning thunderstorms in the central U.S. drenched central Oklahoma with up
to six inches of rain. Afternoon thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 85
mph at Fort Smith AR. Evening thunderstorms over Florida spawned a tornado
which touched down three times in south Fort Myers causing nearly three
quarters of a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm
Data)


Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky