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De Kalb County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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36 Hr. Forecast Map
All Radar images NOAA/UKAWC
Satellite images from NOAA

Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts





US Weekly Rainfall Departure



US Weekly Temperature Departure
Also see:




A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.


.SHORT TERM...

Precipitable water values at 2 inches or more across much of
Central Alabama, but there is a gradient in the moisture from west
to east. There is an axis of higher microburst potential and hail
potential from near Lee County, to Jefferson County, to Marion
County. This axis also coincides with SBCAPE maximum near 4000.
Numerous outflow boundaries of varying extent are converging into
this zone from all directions. Therefore, increased rain chances
for all of western areas and near this axis the remainder of the
afternoon hours and into the first couple of hours this evening. 

850-300 winds are very weak over the area, therefore storm 
movement is nearly stationary. The storms are propagating due to
the numerous boundaries and will tend to move eastward or
southward with time, but some variations certainly expected. The
strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 45
mph and rainfall of 1 to 3 inches in a short period of time.
Coverage will diminish with the lose of daytime heating through 
the evening hours.

75

Previous short-term discussion:Through Tonight.

Scattered showers and storms will continue to increase in coverage
this afternoon and early evening. Current radar trends show most
of that activity will be across the west and south. Although, with
colliding boundaries, storms are possible anywhere. Slow storm
motions and PWs around 2 inches create the potential for ponding 
and urban flooding. Frequent lightning and a few strong wind gusts
are also possible. 

Coverage will diminish with sunset, but at least an isolated
chance of a storm will remain overnight. Looking very similar to
last night, with a messy sky and localized fog possible. Lows will
be in the low to mid 70s.

14

.LONG TERM...
Monday through Saturday.

Northwest flow will develop aloft on Monday while low-level flow
becomes more cyclonic. This will occur as a deep trough moves
through eastern Canada and the Great Lakes and ridging begins to
build over the western CONUS. A cold front will begin to move into
the Mid-South/Ohio Valley regions. High PWATs around 2 to 2.2 
inches will remain in place especially across the southern
counties, with another pre-frontal axis of high PWATs sinking down
into the northwest counties during the late afternoon. Expect
another day of hot and humid conditions with heat index values
climbing to around 105 by midday, before high coverage of
showers/storms causes some relief in the afternoon. Locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding will remain possible. Best coverage
may end up being in the northwest counties where clusters of pre-
frontal storms may move in from the northwest. This is also where
the best chance of some stronger storms with gusty winds will be
given an axis of relatively dry air aloft between the two moisture
axes, but mid-level lapse rates and shear will remain very weak.
Still some signals of a possible MCS or two developing Monday 
night or at least a few clusters of storms. With timing in the 
models ranging from early evening to after midnight, will keep 
likely PoPs in across the north all night long. 

Outflow boundaries from Monday night's convection will likely play
a role on Tuesday's forecast. Highest confidence in widespread
rain chances will be across the southern counties near an upper
shear axis. It's possible that outflow could stabilize the
northern counties, but the main front/theta-e gradient/PWAT
gradient will remain north of the area even as the surface 
trough/wind shift gradient moves through. These factors will 
hopefully keep heat index values below 105. Locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding remains a threat. 

PoP/dew point forecast for Wednesday/Thursday will hinge on
exactly where the front stalls out. Models continue to vary from
run to run and between each other. Highest confidence in rain
chances will be across the south on Wednesday and southeast on
Thursday. A wave of low pressure also looks to develop along the
front by Thursday and move up the East Coast, while a shortwave
begins to approach from the northwest.  

Upper-level pattern will continue to amplify Friday through the
weekend as ridging strengthens near the Four Corners and an
anomalous upper low moves into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley 
region. This will result in the potential for MCSs/organized 
storms. Will need to monitor the potential for severe storms given
forecast mid-level lapse rates/bulk shear values, but confidence 
is low this far out.

32/Davis


Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For DE KALB County
700 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018
NORTHEAST ALABAMA
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
ALBERTVILLE    FAIR      82  77  83 W6        30.03R HX  91           
FORT PAYNE     FAIR      77  73  88 NE3       30.01R                  
SCOTTSBORO AP  FAIR      81  79  94 CALM      30.02R                  
SCOTTSBORO HCN   N/A     81 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
VALLEY HEAD      N/A     75 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 700pm CDT, Sunday July 15, 2018

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 82 degrees north, near 79 degrees central, and near 77 degrees south. Current sky conditions are fair north, cloudy central, and fair south. In the north, relative humidity is near 81%, and the dew point is near 76 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 79%, and the dew point is near 72 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 90%, and the dew point is near 74 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is danger north, no stress central, and no stress south. There is thunder central. Winds are from the west at 6 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the northwest at 10 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the northeast at 6 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 84 degrees at Anniston. The lowest temperature is 74 degrees at Montgomery.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For DE KALB County, AL

444 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

 DAY ONE  Tonight  

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible this evening and 
overnight, as multiple upper disturbances gradually move eastward 
across the region. A few of the stronger storms will be capable of 
gusty winds to 50 mph.

In addition, multiple episodes of heavy rainfall over the same 
location may translate into localized flooding on some roads and low 
lying areas. The thunderstorm threat will gradually diminish after 
midnight.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Monday through Saturday  

Numerous thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Tuesday, 
mainly during the afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorms will become more isolated to scattered in nature 
Wednesday through Saturday.

 SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT  

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is 
not anticipated at this time.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook


7-Day Forecast For DE KALB County, Alabama
642 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

TONIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. South winds up to 5 mph.

MONDAY
Mostly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds up to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows around 70. West winds up to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

TUESDAY
Mostly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the upper 60s. North winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s. Lows in the upper 60s.

THURSDAY
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Lows in the upper 60s.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                              ALABAMA                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   JUL 21-25    JUL 23-29    JUL       JUL-SEP                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:     Normal       Normal      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above     Normal     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Sunday July 15, 2018 the 196th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination 21.360000
Distance 0.999715 AU
Rise 06:49 EDT Set 20:58 EDT
Transit Meridian 13:54 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:22 EDT Ends 21:25 EDT

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

////////////////////////////
JULY 15TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1916...
A dying South Atlantic Coast storm produced torrential rains in the
southern Appalachian Mountains. Altapass NC was drenched with more than 22
inches of rain, a 24 hour rainfall record for the state. Flooding resulted
in considerable damage, particularly to railroads. (David Ludlum)
...1954...
The temperature at Balcony Falls VA soared to 110 degrees to establish a
state record. (The Weather Channel)
...1983...
The Big Thompson Creek in Colorado flooded for the second time in seven
years, claiming three lives, and filling the town of Estes Park with eight
to ten feet of water. (The Weather Channel)
...1987...
Unseasonably cool weather spread into the south central and eastern U.S.
Fifteen cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including
Houghton Lake MI with a reading of 37 degrees. The high temperature for the
date of 58 degrees at Flint MI was their coolest of record for July.
Thunderstorms spawned several tornadoes in Illinois and Indiana, injuring a
cow near Donovan IL. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1988...
Twenty-six cities east of the Mississippi River reported record high
temperatures for the date. Charleston WV established an all-time record
high with a reading of 103 degrees, and Chicago IL reported a record fifth
day of 100 degree heat for the year. A severe thunderstorm moving across
Omaha NE and the Council Bluffs area of west central Iowa spawned three
tornadoes which injured 88 persons, and also produced high winds which
injured 18 others. Winds at the Omaha Eppley Airport reached 92 mph. Damage
from the storm was estimated at 43 million dollars. (Storm Data) (The
National Weather Summary)
...1989...
Thunderstorms drenched Kansas City MO with 4.16 inches of rain, a record
for the date. Two and a half inches of rain deluged the city between Noon
and 1 PM. Afternoon thunderstorms in South Carolina deluged Williamstown
with six inches of rain in ninety minutes, including four inches in little
more than half an hour. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data)


Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky