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Dale County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.


.SHORT TERM...
Today through Tomorrow.

There are two main stories for today, the dangerous heat during the 
day followed by the potential for severe weather in the evening and 
overnight hours. 

Synoptically, a couple of things are taking place. First, we've got 
upper level ridging over the 4-corners region that has persisted for 
several days already, leading to hot conditions across the South 
Central and Southwestern US. NAEFs highlights the geopotential 
heights in this ridge as being in the 99th percentile for this time 
of year. Second, a very strong low pressure system slides 
southeastward through the Northern Plains and into the Midwestern 
States. NAEFs picks this up as having minimum all time heights at 
850mb and a minimum MSLP. In other words, an unusually strong ridge 
is place across the Southwest as a highly anomalous low dips into 
the Midwest. This contrast between these two systems unsurprisingly 
generates an anomalously strong jet, which at 500mb, is being shown 
near the max climatologically. Basically, this is an unusual pattern 
for July. 

Let's begin with the heat: 
Low level ridging at 850mb is centered over Louisiana early 
Friday. This will lead to subsidence and an overall suppression of
cloud cover and convection during the day, allowing Central AL to
heat up into the low to mid 90s, with the warmest temps in the 
western and southwestern Counties. Surface winds are forecast to 
be nearly due south, which will bring in quite a bit of moisture, 
helping dewpoints increase to the mid 70s. The NAM even brings in 
a narrow corridor of upper 70s dewpoints right along the AL/MS 
state line, further increasing the heat indices in that area. A 
heat advisory will be in place for the western and southern 
counties of Central AL from noon to 7pm when heat indices will 
likely exceed 105 degrees. 

The severe threat will primarily be in the evening and into the 
overnight hours Saturday morning. A shortwave slides through the 
strong upper level trough and pushes southward through the Mid MS 
Valley and into Western TN. Initially, models are having a hard time 
resolving whether this will generate discreet supercells or a squall 
line/MCS feature in Western Kentucky and into TN. Depending on which 
convective-allowing model you look at and what run of that model, 
you might get one solution or the other. Regardless, of the initial 
mode, CAMs generally agree that as the event begins to our north. 
The system then becomes more of an MCS that dives southward into 
North AL and continues into Central AL. The GFS and NMM have this 
MCS focused along the AL/MS state line along the axis of higher 
instability (4000-5000 J/kg CAPE), which would make sense based on 
how MCS propagation should take place. The NAM and ECMWF generally 
have a more eastward focus that pushes through eastern portions of 
Central AL, but this solution seems less likely as it doesn't follow 
the better instability. Finally, the ARW pushes the stronger MCS 
feature more through Mississippi. I say all of that to essentially 
lay out the uncertainty of the forecast and where the the potential 
MCS will move because it will highly depend on where storms initiate 
upstream. The current forecast has the best chance for impacts in 
the northwestern counties, highlighted in an enhanced risk. This is 
based on where the environment is most conducive to support strong 
to severe storms as the shortwave forcing moves through. Threat 
wise, the biggest concern will damaging winds. Models generally 
agree that as storms reach Central AL, the mode should be more of an 
MCS-type event rather than discreet cells. Abundant shear is in 
place to support rotating updrafts, but I'm not sure we'll see 
storms develop out ahead of the MCS cluster, which would usually 
lead to tornado concerns. I won't rule out the possibility of an 
isolated tornado or two if a discreet storm can get going, but 
confidence is very low, so will continue mention of damaging winds 
as the main threat for this event.

By Saturday morning, the initial shortwave has pushed south of our 
area and the upper level jet begins to nose into Central AL. Models 
pick up on another shortwave developing Saturday afternoon in 
Northeastern AL/Northern GA and pushing southward, which could set 
off another MCS that pushes through our Northeastern and Eastern 
counties. The placement of that shortwave will determine if any of 
our area sees the chance for severe storms Saturday. Right now, I 
can't rule out a damaging wind threat for our far eastern portions, 
but I believe the best chances will be further east into Georgia. 
Therefore, I will continue mention of severe weather Saturday 
afternoon/evening, but keep it generally east of the I-65 corridor. 
After this second shortwave pushes through late Saturday evening 
into the overnight hours, we should see improving conditions across 
Central AL with the best rain/storm chances ending before midnight 
Saturday night.

25/Owen

.LONG TERM...

Sunday through Thursday.

The main upper low, currently associated with the weather in the 
short term, will slowly slide southward on Sunday and Monday. As it 
slides south, it will weaken as well. This low will then park over 
the Southeast for the rest of the week. There are some model 
disagreement with the exact track and overall timing, but the 
pattern remains similar, so confidence is high that we will see 
above normal rain chances for much of the next work week. The Euro 
places the center of the low over northern GA/AL Monday afternoon 
and keeps it generally in the same location through Wednesday. After 
that the energy gets shifted to the south along the coast through 
the end of the week. Meanwhile the GFS bring the center of the low 
more into northern AL/MS by Tuesday morning. The low spins across 
central AL before it weakens into more of an upper trough. Either 
scenario would keep higher than normal precipitation chances for the 
area, with the only uncertainty being where to put the highest 
chances. As for temperatures, will trend temperatures in the upper 
80s to near 90 for now and adjust downward if needed as we get 
closer and confidence of the path is higher. The good news is that 
the lows should be cooler, with the lower dewpoints, so the 
oppressive heat will not be as much of an issue. 

16


Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For DALE County
700 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
DOTHAN         CLOUDY    76  73  91 E3        29.98R                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  75; 6HR MAX TEMP:  76;                                

OZARK          CLOUDY    75  74  98 CALM      29.95R                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  74; 6HR MAX TEMP:  76;                                

TROY           CLOUDY    74  72  93 NE6       29.97R                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  72; 6HR MAX TEMP:  74;                                

EUFAULA        CLOUDY    75  74  96 VRB5      29.96R                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  74; 6HR MAX TEMP:  75;                                

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 700am CDT, Friday July 20, 2018

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 72 degrees north, near 74 degrees central, and near 75 degrees south. Current sky conditions are fair north, partly sunny central, and partly sunny south. In the north, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 70 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 87%, and the dew point is near 70 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 73 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is no stress north, no stress central, and no stress south. Winds are from the southeast at 8 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the north at 5 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 77 degrees at Brookely Field. The lowest temperature is 71 degrees at Alexander City.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For DALE County
Hazardous report currently not available
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For DALE County, Alabama
127 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

TODAY
Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. North winds up to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

TONIGHT
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the mid 70s. Northeast winds up to 5 mph shifting to the south after midnight. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

SATURDAY
Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY
Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

MONDAY
Mostly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.

MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

TUESDAY
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs around 90. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening, then chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

WEDNESDAY
Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 90.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

THURSDAY
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs around 90. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                              ALABAMA                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   JUL 25-29 JUL 27-AUG 2    JUL       JUL-SEP                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Below        Below      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above     Normal     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Friday July 20, 2018 the 201th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination 20.470000
Distance 0.999716 AU
Rise 06:53 EDT Set 20:56 EDT
Transit Meridian 13:54 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:26 EDT Ends 21:23 EDT

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

////////////////////////
JULY 20TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1930...
The temperature at Washington D.C. soared to an all-time record of 106
degrees. The next day Millsboro reached 110 degrees to set a record for the
state of Delaware. July 1930 was one of the hottest and driest summers in
the U.S., particularly in the Missouri Valley where severe drought
conditions developed. Toward the end of the month state records were set
for Kentucky with 114 degrees, and Mississippi with 115 degrees. (David
Ludlum)
...1934...
The temperature at Keokuk IA soared to 118 degrees to establish a state
record. (The Weather Channel)
...1953...
Twenty-two inches of hail reportedly fell northeast of Dickinson ND. (The
Weather Channel)
...1986...
The temperature at Charleston SC hit 104 degrees for the second day in a
row to tie their all-time record high. (The Weather Channel)
...1987...
Thunderstorms produced severe weather across Minnesota, Wisconsin and
Michigan. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 87 mph at Mosinee WI, and
strong thunderstorm winds capsized twenty-six boats on Grand Traverse Bay
drowning two women. Thunderstorms produced nine inches of rain at Shakopee
MN, with 7.83 inches reported in six hours at Chaska MN. Thunderstorms in
north central Nebraska produced hail as large as golf balls in southwestern
Cherry County, which accumulated to a depth of 12 inches. (The National
Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1988...
The temperature at Redding CA soared to an all-time record high of 118
degrees. Showers and thunderstorms produced much needed rains from New
England to southern Texas. Salem IN was deluged with 7.2 inches of rain
resulting in flash flooding. (The National Weather Summary)
...1989...
Showers and thunderstorms in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region soaked
Wilmington DE with 2.28 inches of rain, pushing their total for the period
May through July past the previous record of 22.43 inches. Heavy rain over
that three month period virtually wiped out a 16.82 inch deficit which had
been building since drought conditions began in 1985. Thunderstorms in
central Indiana deluged Lebanon with 6.50 inches of rain in twelve hours,
and thunderstorms over Florida produced wind gusts to 84 mph at Flagler
Beach. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky