A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
today, noted by the wind shift to the northwest across the
northwestern tier of counties. The front will continue to push
southward overnight, with light northerly winds areawide by
sunrise. Airmass remains relatively dry and do not expect anything
more than a cirrus deck streaming across the area. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 20s far northwest to upper 30s southeast.
Friday through Wednesday.
Strong west-southwest flow aloft will be in place over much of
the eastern CONUS on Friday between troughing centered over
eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS and subtropical ridging
centered near the Greater Antilles. A shortwave will be moving
through the northeastern CONUS trough with a shearing axis of
vorticity extending southwestward to a cutoff low centered over
the Gulf of California and northwest Mexico. This shortwave and
a surface high moving into the Southern Plains will push the cold
front south of the area. Northwesterly low-level flow behind the
front will maintain a dry air mass below 600mb and prevent any
measurable precipitation despite strong upper-level forcing for
ascent. Expect just an increase in mid and high level clouds, with
some virga across the far southern counties. Couldn't rule out a
stray sprinkle there, but chances are too low to mention in the
forecast at this time. Low-level cold air advection will bring in
925mb temperatures around 0C across the north. This will result in
a cool day with highs only in the low to mid 40s across the north,
with upper 40s to low 50s south. Skies should clear out Friday
night with the exception of some cirrus from the subtropical jet.
With calm winds expected as surface high pressure slides eastward
across the Deep South, and a dry air mass, expect strong
radiational cooling with lows in the upper 20s to around 30, and
some low to mid 20s in the typically colder locations.
A trough digging into the western CONUS will serve as a kicker to
cause the cutoff low over Mexico to eject across Texas as a
negatively tilted trough Saturday and Saturday night. Ridging will
build in aloft across the Deep South ahead of this feature. Flow
above the surface will become southwesterly, but an easterly
component to winds at the surface due to high pressure moving into
Georgia will keep high temperatures in check, remaining in the
50s. Dry air will remain in place at low-levels, with only mid and
high level clouds expected during the day and evening. A 40-50 kt
LLJ will strengthen over the Lower Mississippi Valley after
midnight Saturday night. A weak surface low that develops along
the old frontal boundary in the northwest Gulf due to forcing
associated with the trough will also lift northward across this
area. Models have trended slower with the onset of precipitation
in West Alabama late Saturday night, and it may hold off until
Sunday morning. However, will keep in a chance of scattered
showers in the west for now given strong warm air
advection/isentropic lift if the dry air at the surface can be
overcome. Lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s, with low to
mid 30s possible in the northeast. Many areas will probably see
their low temperatures in the evening before rising after
midnight. Strong warm air advection will prevent any wintry
The shortwave trough will be in the process of shearing/weakening
as it lifts northward towards the Ohio Valley, while deep layer
moisture will continue to increase. There are some model
discrepancies in QPF that begin to appear due to the decrease in
upper-level forcing behind the shortwave and the potential for
convection along the Gulf Coast. Will focus the highest PoPs
generally west of I-65 where the best LLJ will be. At the surface,
a warm front will try to lift northward into our southern
counties, but its northward progression will be restricted
initially by evaporative cooling as rain falls into the lingering
dry air mass across the area. This will limit high temperatures
and instability during the day on Sunday, and have removed the
slight chance of thunder from the southern counties during this
Moist deep layer southwesterly flow remains in place on Sunday
night ahead of a trough over the western CONUS. The ECMWF has
trended towards the GFS with a wetter solution during this time.
PWATs will increase to 1.5 to 1.8 inches, which is at or above the
95th percentile for December. Dewpoints will climb into the 60s
across the southern counties which could allow for some weak
instability and thunderstorms to be possible. But the LLJ will
have weakened by this time with little upper-level forcing and
weak lapse rates, so severe storms are not expected at this time.
Monday through Wednesday:
Forecast confidence becomes low by this time period. The GFS
continues to indicate a wetter solution, keeping a more phased
trough to the west of the area. Meanwhile the ECMWF pushes the
northern portion of this trough quickly eastward while indicating
a cutoff low in the southern stream over northwest Mexico. Overall
it seems the ECMWF has trended slightly more to the GFS, and the
EPS ensemble mean/a fair number of EPS members are wetter than the
deterministic ECMWF. Therefore have tended towards a wetter
solution for Monday and Tuesday, but kept PoPs in the chance
range. The GFS keeps high PWATs around during this time, with
unidirectional flow indicating the potential for training and the
possibility of a couple rounds of heavier rainfall. Flash flood
guidance is high across the area given recent dry conditions, so
the ground could handle 1 or 2 rounds of rain but localized
flooding could develop if multiple rounds develop. Will hold off
on mention any flooding threat in the HWO at this time given
inherent uncertainty with QPF and the model differences.
The GFS dries out the area by Wednesday, while the ECMWF brings
some precipitation across the Gulf Coast associated with the
remnants of the cutoff low. Will keep a dry forecast going during
Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For CULLMAN County
400 PM CST THU DEC 14 2017
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MUSCLE SHOALS CLEAR 52 30 43 N8 29.99R
HUNTSVILLE PTCLDY 52 34 50 N8 29.97R
DECATUR CLEAR 50 34 54 N7 29.98R
HALEYVILLE FAIR 52 34 50 N7 29.98R
GADSDEN CLEAR 56 33 42 NW5 29.94
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 400pm CST, Thursday December 14, 2017
Across Alabama...temperatures are near 50 degrees north, near 56 degrees central, and near 60 degrees south. Current sky conditions are clear north, partly cloudy central, and mostly cloudy south. In the north, relative humidity is near 54%, and the dew point is near 34 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 40%, and the dew point is near 32 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 47%, and the dew point is near 40 degrees. Winds are from the north at 7 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 5 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 6 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category north, no stress category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 60 degrees at Mobile. The lowest temperature is 50 degrees at Decatur and Alexander City.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
U.S. Radar Map,
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For CULLMAN County, AL
248 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017
DAY ONE Tonight
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Friday through Wednesday
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT
Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
not anticipated at this time.
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For CULLMAN County, Alabama
257 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017
LATE THIS AFTERNOON
Sunny. Northwest winds around 5 mph.
TONIGHT Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly
cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. North winds around 5 mph.
FRIDAY Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy.
Highs in the mid 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Southwest winds
around 5 mph.
SATURDAY Sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. South winds around 5 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy
with a slight chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the upper
30s. Southeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
SUNDAY Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the
SUNDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Near steady temperature in the lower 50s.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Highs in the lower 60s. Lows in the upper 40s.
TUESDAY Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 60s.
TUESDAY NIGHT Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 50s.
Lows in the upper 30s.
THURSDAY Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 50s.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
DEC 20-24 DEC 22-28 DEC DEC-FEB
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Above Above Above Above
Precipitation: Above Above Below Below
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Thursday December 14, 2017 the 348th Day of Year
Distance 0.999725 AU
Rise 07:45 EST Set 17:41 EST
Transit Meridian 12:43 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:18 EST Ends 18:08 EST
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
Wet and cold: Louisville, KY set both a record low (2 degrees) and a daily
precipitation record (2.21 inches). (The high temperature that day was 42.)
The temperature at Helena MT plunged 79 degrees in 24 hours, and 88 degrees
in 34 hours. The mercury plummeted from 63 above to 25 below zero. At
Fairfield MT the temperature plunged 84 degrees in just 12 hours, from 63
at Noon to 21 below zero at midnight. (David Ludlum)
A powerful storm spread heavy snow from the Southern High Plains to the
Middle Mississippi Valley, and produced severe thunderstorms in the Lower
Mississippi Valley. During the evening a tornado hit West Memphis TN
killing six persons and injuring two hundred others. The tornado left 1500
persons homeless, and left all of the residents of Crittendon County
without electricity. Kansas City MO was blanketed with 10.8 inches of snow,
a 24 hour record for December, and snowfall totals in the Oklahoma
panhandle ranged up to 14 inches. Strong winds, gusting to 63 mph at Austin
TX, ushered arctic cold into the Great Plains, and caused considerable
blowing and drifting of snow. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
Blowing snow was reported in western Kansas, as snow and gusty winds
plagued the Central Rockies and Central High Plains. Colorado Springs CO
reported thirteen inches of snow. Low pressure in Wisconsin brought heavy
snow to the Lake Superior snowbelt area, with 22 inches reported at
Marquette MI. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
High winds and heavy snow prevailed from Montana to Colorado. Snowfall
totals in Wyoming ranged up to 20 inches at Burgess Junction, leaving up to
48 inches on the ground in the northeast sections of the state. Wind gusts
in Colorado reached 87 mph south of the town of Rollinsville. Strong
northwesterly winds continued to produce heavy snow squalls in the Great
Lakes Region. Totals in northeastern Lower Michigan ranged up to 29 inches
at Hubbard Lake, with 28 inches reported at Posen. Two day totals in
northeastern Wisconsin ranged up to thirty inches. (Storm Data) (The
National Weather Summary)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky