A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
just north of Montgomery with a stationary front extending
southwest from there across Southeast Louisiana and into the
Northwest Gulf of Mexico. A warm front stretches eastward from
Montgomery into Georgia. Once again today, we have a large
temperature gradient across Central Alabama with middle 40s in the
northwest to the lower 80s in the southeast. The southeast
counties (southeast and east of the front in our warm sector) did
have some clearing of the clouds today and heated up extensively.
This has allowed for some convection to develop in the southeast.
Elevated convection in the west has developed and moved into the
area from MS. The boundary is expected to meander some to the
north during the overnight hours. With saturated soils and
swelling creeks and rivers, will keep the current flood watch
going as any additional rains will need to be monitored closely.
We will likely be south of the boundary later overnight after the
convection tapers off, so I have added patchy fog to the
Friday through Wednesday.
High pressure at the surface pushes eastward to the northeastern
CONUS on Friday, as a surface low and lee trough develop over the
High Plains. This will allow the surface warm front to lift
northward, but a developing CAD wedge will push a back door cold
front into our eastern counties Friday afternoon. Lifting with the
surface warm front is fairly shallow, as the 925-850mb warm front
will be north of the area. Some isolated to scattered showers and
storms may also develop with daytime heating, but warm/dry air
aloft should limit their strength. Overall, the focus for heavy
rain will be north of the area, with lighter rain amounts
expected. Thus will let the day shift re-assess if any extension
to the flood watch is warranted. One thing to watch is if the band
of showers and storms over our far northwest counties ends up
lingering past the watch expiration time. There is a very
conditional risk of strong/isolated severe storms with daytime
heating Friday afternoon with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 45-50
kts. However, chances of initiation of strong storms seem very low
at this time given a lack of forcing, and CAMs look unimpressive.
Main focus of the extended forecast remains the potent shortwave
trough and deepening surface low tracking from the southern Plains
to the Great Lakes Saturday and Saturday night. Main forecast
challenge is whether or not we will get any discrete supercell
development Saturday afternoon/early Saturday evening ahead of an
expected QLCS Saturday night. A lot of this will revolve around
how much vorticity is in the base of the trough and whether the
base of the trough has a neutral or positive tilt, which often
makes or breaks events like this, and I can think of several
events in the past that trended more positive tilt/less vorticity
in the trough base resulting in a diminished threat as the time
got closer. The subtropical ridge over the Bahamas also comes
into play as well. The forecast area will be in the subsident
right exit region of a 250mb upper-level jet streak, and cyclonic
vorticity advection and the mid-level jet max will remain
northwest of the area. That being side, however, there 3-4
decameter 500mb height falls. 700mb temps are +6 which are a
little on the warm side. Deep layer moisture looks favorable with
PWATs back up around 1.7 inches. There are at least some signals
in model lift/moisture fields for pre-frontal precipitation,
including the possibility of a pre-frontal trough. So the
potential for pre-frontal supercells over our western counties is
there but uncertainty remains high.
If these supercells form, then wind profiles would be more than
supportive of all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes.
Will note that some of the raw models temps/dew points (especially
the NAM) look unrealistically too low given the strong southerly
flow and 1000-850mb thickness values. This results in CAPE values
that look too low in some cases. Forecast high temperatures are in
the upper 70s to low 80s (lining up with MOS values) with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. A CAD wedge may keep
temperatures cooler in just our far northeastern counties. It
won't be particularly strong as high pressure will be moving off
into the Atlantic, and a surface low will be deepening to our
northwest. Also, any morning convection currently looks to remain
north of the area closer to the warm front. IF supercells move
into our far northwest counties and IF there is the higher CAPE
values are still present, SRH would be supportive of a strong
tornado in our far northwest counties. However, these are just
"ifs" right now, and this threat could easily stay northwest of
the area as we're on the southern fringes of the stronger forcing.
The QLCS Saturday night will also pose a risk of damaging winds,
and brief tornadoes.
Keeping all these things in mind, will not make any big changes to
our current HWO/graphics. SPC's latest outlook keeps an enhanced
risk just northwest of the area, but will continue to monitor trends
in case this needs to be expanded southward. Please stay tuned to
the latest forecasts and have your severe weather plan in place. The
progressive nature of the system will limit the potential for heavy
rainfall, but the additional rainfall could aggravate ongoing
Dry conditions finally return for Sunday. A pattern change will have
taken place with a blocking ridge over Alaska and troughing over
eastern Canada and split flow over the CONUS with broad troughing
over the eastern CONUS. The ECMWF has trended more suppressed
with a weak southern stream wave over the Gulf on Tuesday, while
the GFS continues to indicate some moisture return over Central
Alabama aided by a surface low over the Upper Midwest. Overall, a
less active weather week is expected compared to this week.
Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For CRENSHAW County
800 PM CST THU FEB 21 2019
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
GREENVILLE MOCLDY 73 66 78 S7 30.03R
EVERGREEN CLOUDY 73 69 87 S9 30.05R
ATMORE* N/A N/A N/A N/A S9 30.08R
ANDALUSIA/OPP MOCLDY 74 69 85 VRB5 30.05S
ANDALUSIA* N/A N/A N/A N/A S7 30.06R
FLORALA APT CLOUDY 70 67 90 SW7 30.09R
FLORALA* NOT AVBL
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
U.S. Radar Map,
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For CRENSHAW County, AL
300 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019
DAY ONE This Afternoon and Tonight
No Hazardous weather expected through tonight, but areas of fog
which could become locally dense in isolated locations could be a
driving hazard late tonight.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Friday through Wednesday
Areas of fog, some locally dense, may develop over portions of the
region each night through the end of the week.
Another round of strong to marginally severe storms will be
possible across southeast Mississippi and interior southwest
Alabama late Saturday through early Sunday.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For CRENSHAW County, Alabama
316 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers.
Areas of fog in the late evening and overnight. Lows in the mid
60s. South winds around 5 mph.
FRIDAY Partly sunny. Areas of fog in the morning. Slight
chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the
afternoon. Highs around 80. South winds around 5 mph. Chance of
showers 30 percent.
FRIDAY NIGHT Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly
cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the lower 60s.
Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. Slight
chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. South
winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
SATURDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely and slight
chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s.
Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
SUNDAY Cooler, sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
SUNDAY NIGHT Colder. Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
MONDAY Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
MONDAY NIGHT Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the lower 40s.
TUESDAY Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly
cloudy. A 40 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the upper
TUESDAY NIGHT Cloudy with chance of rain showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of
precipitation 40 percent.
WEDNESDAY Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs around 70.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.
THURSDAY Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain
showers. Highs in the upper 60s.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
FEB 27-MAR 3 MAR 1-MAR 7 FEB FEB-APR
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Below Below Above Below
Precipitation: Normal Above Above Above
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Thursday February 21, 2019 the 52th Day of Year
Distance 0.999723 AU
Rise 07:25 EST Set 18:38 EST
Transit Meridian 13:01 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:01 EST Ends 19:02 EST
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
A spectacular chinook wind at Granville ND caused the temperature to spurt
from a morning low of 33 degrees below zero to an afternoon high of 50
degrees above zero. (David Ludlum)
Frequent duststorms occurred in eastern Colorado during the month, forcing
schools to close and people to stay indoors. A fatality occurred on this
date when two section cars collided on the railroad near Arriba CO, due to
poor visibility. (The Weather Channel)
The temperature at Langdon ND climbed above zero for the first time in six
weeks. Readings never got above freezing during all three winter months.
An outbreak of tornadoes hit northeastern Louisiana and northern and
central Mississippi. The tornadoes claimed 121 lives, including 110 in
Mississippi. Three tornadoes accounted for 118 of the deaths. There are
1600 persons injured, 900 homes were destroyed or badly damaged, and total
damage was 19 million dollars. (David Ludlum)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky